Contract Quant Brief
#106 | The pullback is still ongoing, but I’d rather wait for a retracement to confirm
Market situation:
Today is still a continuation session. The overall tone is bullish, but it’s not the kind of strength you can blindly chase. DEXEUSDT is trading right along the 20-day moving average. EVAAUSDT is surging faster. VIRTUALUSDT is also strong, but it’s farther away from the moving average. My focus is whether it can still hold after a retracement, not whether to hard-chase the extension.
Top candidates:
1)DEXEUSDT
This one feels more like a comfortable retracement entry within a trend. Current price is 35.07, it’s very close to the 20-day line, funding rates aren’t high, and the recent one-hour position change isn’t that dramatic—suggesting it’s not just random, emotion-driven buying.
Observation zone: 34.8-35.2
Trigger: After the retracement, it holds above the 20-day line and then reclaims and stays above 35.3, while volume continues to expand—then we’ll see if this is a second continuation.
Invalidation: If it breaks below 34.5 and fails to pull back up for a while, it means the momentum is starting to loosen.
I’ll take a closer look first; the entry is more comfortable than chasing the high.
2)EVAAUSDT
This one is more like “runs fast, but shakes more easily.” The 6-hour increase is already large. In the last hour it’s still pushing higher, but the position change is starting to ease off. That suggests there are plenty of people chasing on the short-term rally, but the follow-through may not be keeping pace.
Observation zone: 2.38-2.42
Trigger: After the retracement, it doesn’t break and then reclaims the ~2.50 area. Then we’ll watch to see if it accelerates again for a second push.
Invalidation: If it falls back below 2.30, short-term strength can easily turn into high-level consolidation.
I don’t want to hard-chase this one either—I’d rather wait for it to give you the position.
Watchlist / Not chasing for now:
VIRTUALUSDT is also strong, but it’s farther from the moving average. It’s the type where “strong remains strong,” but the volatility is larger when you chase—so I’ll just keep it under observation for now and won’t elaborate.
Risk warning:
Today is more suitable for waiting for confirmation; it’s not suitable for chasing just because you see red. If it’s truly strong, it will still offer opportunities after the retracement. If it’s fake strength, once it spikes, it’s easy to give back gains.