000858

📌 Don’t try to predict whether stocks will rise or fall in the short term. “A-share Contrarian” influencer Fengge gives retail investors pointers—predicting stock prices is no different from gambling. This year he lost nearly 2 million, and the joke “Fengge buys contrarily, and the villa faces the sea” has been proven true time and again—Mobile Finance Network

🍖 Chopper says:
Seeing Fengge lose nearly 2 million, my first reaction was to laugh a bit. Then I immediately thought about the short-term swings I’ve been trading this year on $SH600519—basically it’s been all for nothing. When you add it up, the commissions almost cover a dinner for a friend.

Fengge’s case is actually very typical. The more he tries to guess whether Moutai will be up or down tomorrow, the more likely the market is to “educate” him. On the other hand, it’s those who just hold steady—no matter how big the fluctuations are in the middle—who look back later and don’t end up feeling so bad.

My current view is: lithium mining is up today (for example, $002460). But if you chase in and bet that it’ll keep rising tomorrow, that’s not fundamentally any different from Fengge guessing up or down. If you really believe in new energy, you might as well look at $300750—it follows a trend, not a one- or two-day burst driven by news.

The risk is: don’t think that because you saw Fengge lose money, you can just make money by doing the opposite of him. That logic is like flipping a coin—it’s just changing the direction.

For consumer-sector weights, $SH600519 is a slow-and-steady type, while $000858 has more flexibility but the volatility is also more frightening. If you ask me to choose, I’d rather buy little by little when Moutai is falling and nobody’s talking about it, rather than rush in to follow the crowd at the daily limit-up board.

#002460 #300750 #000858 #A股

📌 The policy clearly indicates that it will stabilize the stock market situation to increase residents’ income. Tomorrow, A-shares should be steady. The state has formally finalized the 15th Five-Year Plan expansion plan for boosting consumption.

🍖 Chopper says:
The core of this news about the 15th Five-Year Plan consumption expansion is to let the stock market and real estate help residents increase their income, which directly benefits consumer-related stocks. For example, Kweichow Moutai (600519) has recently pulled back to around 1,500 yuan, about 15% down from the year’s high point. But if policy support kicks in, consumer confidence may rebound, and the liquor leader can still catch some of the upside.

However, it’s important to note that it takes time for policies to be implemented. In the short term, the market may first trade on sentiment, but that momentum may not last. In the same sector, Wuliangye (000858) typically has greater upside potential, but it’s also more volatile. Moutai tends to be more stable. If you already hold a consumer position, consider holding on and don’t rush to add. If you’re currently on the sidelines and want to chase, it’s better to wait for a pullback before entering—don’t see the news and rush in.

Risk warning: If subsequent economic data underperforms expectations, consumer stocks could fall due to disappointment that the policy may not be able to fully deliver what was promised. If your position size is heavy, be cautious.

#600519 #000858 #A股

📌 A-share afternoon strength: all three major stock indexes closed higher; big consumer stocks led; over 4,200 stocks turned red

🍖 Qiao Ba says:
Today’s A-share market action is quite interesting. It was dragged down in the morning by developments from Korea and Japan, but it pulled back in the afternoon and ultimately closed higher—more than 4,200 stocks finished in the red. This reflects that market sentiment hasn’t really broken down. People aren’t that panicked; when prices fell, buyers stepped in.

Specifically, the consumer sector led today—things like liquor and home appliances, with capital flowing into it. I think the logic may be that the market is pricing in expectations for an economic recovery, and valuations aren’t too high either, which provides solid support. But do note: the sustainability of a rebound in consumer stocks depends on the subsequent data. Don’t get carried away just because it’s up.

Let’s compare liquor stocks within the consumer space, for example Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Wuliangye (000858). Today, Moutai’s performance was steadier, while Wuliangye had greater upside elasticity. If you truly believe in consumer recovery, Moutai is the steadier bet, whereas Wuliangye may swing more—choose based on your style.

Risk warning: The rebound in consumer stocks may be only a short-term sentiment repair. If consumer data doesn’t keep up, after this wave of gains, it could easily pull back—don’t chase too aggressively.

📊 Qiao Ba’s indicator today: Fear & Greed Index 53 (neutral); market thermometer 25° (0 is the freezing point / 100 is overheated). Search “Qiao Ba’s gossip notes” to see the algorithm and historical trends.

#600519 #000858 #A股

📌 7.29 end-of-day wrap-up: “accelerant”!

🍖 Chopper says:
When I saw this “accelerant” headline today, it really startled me. But when I clicked in, the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH) had fallen again, while liquor stocks rose against the trend. Is this “accelerant” meant for the shorts? I don’t personally hold any liquor stocks, but judging by this move—Moutai (600519) and a whole crowd of its followers hitting the daily limit—it feels like money is hiding in defensive sectors to keep warm.

To put it plainly, I’m still cautious. This round of strength in liquor stocks running against the market is more about risk-avoidance sentiment and funds clustering together, not that the fundamentals suddenly improved. Compare Wuliangye (000858): it also moved up today, but the upside momentum isn’t as strong as it is for small-cap liquor names. The risk is that when a sector rallies against the trend and the broader market stabilizes, the ensuing catch-up decline (“underperformance rebound”) can be pretty brutal.

Anyway, I don’t have the nerve to chase. I’d rather wait until the market is truly steady. If you do go in, set your stop-loss properly—don’t get tricked by “accelerant” talk.

📊 Chopper’s in-house data reading today: Fear & Greed Index 49 (neutral), market thermometer 22° (0°C point/100 overheated). Search for “Chopper’s gossip notes” to see the algorithm and historical trend.

#000001 #600519 #000858 #A股