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Bank of Italy finds no consistent cost advantage for stablecoin remittancesA Bank of Italy study found that stablecoin-based remittances did not offer a systematic cost or speed advantage over traditional payment channels, as fiat on- and off-ramp frictions accounted for most costs and transfer delays.
Researchers tested 200 USDC (USDC) remittances across 10 bidirectional payment corridors linking Italy with Brazil, Argentina, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, comparing end-to-end costs and settlement times with traditional remittance services. They found that exchange fees and currency conversion made up most of the cost, while blockchain transaction fees represented only a small share.
Geographic design of the remittance experiment. Source: Bank of Italy
Across the stablecoin remittances examined, total costs ranged from 0.3% to nearly 9% depending on the payment corridor, while transfers settled in less than 20 minutes where instant payment systems were available and one to two business days where they were not.
Using the World Bank’s reported global average remittance cost of 6.65% as a benchmark, the study found stablecoin transfers were cheaper in most of the payment corridors examined. However, they were less expensive than Wise in only three of seven comparable corridors.
Payment infrastructure remains critical
The study concluded that investment in domestic instant payment infrastructure could improve the competitiveness of stablecoin-based cross-border payments, finding that settlement times depended heavily on the quality of local payment rails.
The authors argued that the biggest gains may come when stablecoins no longer require conversion back into fiat currency, writing:
If stablecoins could be spent directly in the real economy, for goods and services, rents, or school fees, without reconversion into local fiat currency, the economic advantages of stablecoin-based transfers would be substantially higher.
Regulation shapes remittance efficiency
The study also found that regulatory design played a major role in determining transfer efficiency. The authors said prohibitionist regulatory regimes failed to fully suppress stablecoin demand and instead pushed users toward offshore platforms and other unregulated channels, while overly restrictive frameworks increased operational complexity for retail users.
The findings come as the European Union has implemented its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and the United States has enacted the GENIUS Act, two regulatory regimes that govern crypto assets and payment stablecoins, respectively.
The stablecoin market has grown to about $307 billion, up roughly 16% over the past year, according to DefiLlama data.
Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards
Bank of Italy finds no consistent cost advantage for stablecoin remittances
A Bank of Italy study found that stablecoin-based remittances did not offer a systematic cost or speed advantage over traditional payment channels, as fiat on- and off-ramp frictions accounted for most costs and transfer delays.
Researchers tested 200 USDC (USDC) remittances across 10 bidirectional payment corridors linking Italy with Brazil, Argentina, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, comparing end-to-end costs and settlement times with traditional remittance services. They found that exchange fees and currency conversion made up most of the cost, while blockchain transaction fees represented only a small share.
Geographic design of the remittance experiment. Source: Bank of Italy
Across the stablecoin remittances examined, total costs ranged from 0.3% to nearly 9% depending on the payment corridor, while transfers settled in less than 20 minutes where instant payment systems were available and one to two business days where they were not.
Using the World Bank’s reported global average remittance cost of 6.65% as a benchmark, the study found stablecoin transfers were cheaper in most of the payment corridors examined. However, they were less expensive than Wise in only three of seven comparable corridors.
Payment infrastructure remains critical
The study concluded that investment in domestic instant payment infrastructure could improve the competitiveness of stablecoin-based cross-border payments, finding that settlement times depended heavily on the quality of local payment rails.
The authors argued that the biggest gains may come when stablecoins no longer require conversion back into fiat currency, writing:
If stablecoins could be spent directly in the real economy, for goods and services, rents, or school fees, without reconversion into local fiat currency, the economic advantages of stablecoin-based transfers would be substantially higher.
Regulation shapes remittance efficiency
The study also found that regulatory design played a major role in determining transfer efficiency. The authors said prohibitionist regulatory regimes failed to fully suppress stablecoin demand and instead pushed users toward offshore platforms and other unregulated channels, while overly restrictive frameworks increased operational complexity for retail users.
The findings come as the European Union has implemented its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and the United States has enacted the GENIUS Act, two regulatory regimes that govern crypto assets and payment stablecoins, respectively.
The stablecoin market has grown to about $307 billion, up roughly 16% over the past year, according to DefiLlama data.
Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards
Researchers tested 200 USDC (USDC) remittances across 10 bidirectional payment corridors linking Italy with Brazil, Argentina, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, comparing end-to-end costs and settlement times with traditional remittance services. They found that exchange fees and currency conversion made up most of the cost, while blockchain transaction fees represented only a small share.
Geographic design of the remittance experiment. Source: Bank of Italy
Across the stablecoin remittances examined, total costs ranged from 0.3% to nearly 9% depending on the payment corridor, while transfers settled in less than 20 minutes where instant payment systems were available and one to two business days where they were not.
Using the World Bank’s reported global average remittance cost of 6.65% as a benchmark, the study found stablecoin transfers were cheaper in most of the payment corridors examined. However, they were less expensive than Wise in only three of seven comparable corridors.
Payment infrastructure remains critical
The study concluded that investment in domestic instant payment infrastructure could improve the competitiveness of stablecoin-based cross-border payments, finding that settlement times depended heavily on the quality of local payment rails.
The authors argued that the biggest gains may come when stablecoins no longer require conversion back into fiat currency, writing:
If stablecoins could be spent directly in the real economy, for goods and services, rents, or school fees, without reconversion into local fiat currency, the economic advantages of stablecoin-based transfers would be substantially higher.
Regulation shapes remittance efficiency
The study also found that regulatory design played a major role in determining transfer efficiency. The authors said prohibitionist regulatory regimes failed to fully suppress stablecoin demand and instead pushed users toward offshore platforms and other unregulated channels, while overly restrictive frameworks increased operational complexity for retail users.
The findings come as the European Union has implemented its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and the United States has enacted the GENIUS Act, two regulatory regimes that govern crypto assets and payment stablecoins, respectively.
The stablecoin market has grown to about $307 billion, up roughly 16% over the past year, according to DefiLlama data.
Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards
86
Pump.fun laid off workers before they received millions in PUMP tokens: ReportSolana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun reportedly fired employees two months before they were due to receive PUMP tokens worth millions of dollars.
According to a Friday Sandmark report, at least one Pump.fun worker was due to receive PUMP tokens worth in the seven-figure range. The news outlet reported that Pump.fun co-founder Noah Tweedale said the company “grew too quickly,” resulting in layoffs of an undisclosed number of employees.
The employees were reportedly fired in April, just two months before they were due to start receiving the company’s tokens based on agreements signed in 2025. The agreements, according to documents viewed by Sandmark, said that Pump.fun would unlock a quarter of the employees’ allocated tokens in one year: June 2026.
Pump.fun has previously been the target of a lawsuit involving allegations the company operated a “rigged” machine for investors and another one regarding its maximal extractable value (MEV) practices.
At the time of publication, the price of PUMP was $0.002113, a 7.5% increase over the previous 24 hours.
Pump.fun laid off workers before they received millions in PUMP tokens: Report
Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun reportedly fired employees two months before they were due to receive PUMP tokens worth millions of dollars.
According to a Friday Sandmark report, at least one Pump.fun worker was due to receive PUMP tokens worth in the seven-figure range. The news outlet reported that Pump.fun co-founder Noah Tweedale said the company “grew too quickly,” resulting in layoffs of an undisclosed number of employees.
The employees were reportedly fired in April, just two months before they were due to start receiving the company’s tokens based on agreements signed in 2025. The agreements, according to documents viewed by Sandmark, said that Pump.fun would unlock a quarter of the employees’ allocated tokens in one year: June 2026.
Pump.fun has previously been the target of a lawsuit involving allegations the company operated a “rigged” machine for investors and another one regarding its maximal extractable value (MEV) practices.
At the time of publication, the price of PUMP was $0.002113, a 7.5% increase over the previous 24 hours.
According to a Friday Sandmark report, at least one Pump.fun worker was due to receive PUMP tokens worth in the seven-figure range. The news outlet reported that Pump.fun co-founder Noah Tweedale said the company “grew too quickly,” resulting in layoffs of an undisclosed number of employees.
The employees were reportedly fired in April, just two months before they were due to start receiving the company’s tokens based on agreements signed in 2025. The agreements, according to documents viewed by Sandmark, said that Pump.fun would unlock a quarter of the employees’ allocated tokens in one year: June 2026.
Pump.fun has previously been the target of a lawsuit involving allegations the company operated a “rigged” machine for investors and another one regarding its maximal extractable value (MEV) practices.
At the time of publication, the price of PUMP was $0.002113, a 7.5% increase over the previous 24 hours.
1
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Article
Ex-FTX users report funds being released in $900M distribution roundThe trust behind reimbursing creditors from defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX has begun its fifth distribution of funds, sending $900 million to affected users.
In a Friday X post, former FTX user Sunil Kavuri reported that he had received funds distributed from the FTX Recovery Trust and crypto exchange through Kraken. Kavuri said he had received a notice last week that FTX had sent the funds to Kraken, which released them as scheduled on Friday as part of the distribution plan for exchanges including BitGo and Payoneer.
Source: Sunil Kavuri
The distribution will mark the fifth round of attempts of repaying FTX’s creditors since the exchange filed for bankruptcy in 2022. Following this most recent distribution, FTX’s trust is estimated to have paid out about $11 billion to affected users who lost access to their funds for years.
FTX was one of the largest and most prominent exchanges to collapse in 2022 amid a market downturn, resulting in criminal charges being filed against executives due to the misuses of user funds. Former CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried and Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX’s Bahamian affiliate, were still in federal prison as of July, while former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison was released in January after serving more than a year.
Binance, ex-CEO to face challenge over $1.76 billion claim from FTX
Last week, a bankruptcy court judge ruled that the FTX trust couldn’t pursue damages against crypto exchange Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, Chief Judge Karen B. Owens did not dismiss the trust’s claim in seeking to claw back $1.76 billion from Binance used to repurchase its stake in FTX that it alleged was due in part to “Bankman-Fried’s pervasive and now well-known malfeasance.”
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
Ex-FTX users report funds being released in $900M distribution round
The trust behind reimbursing creditors from defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX has begun its fifth distribution of funds, sending $900 million to affected users.
In a Friday X post, former FTX user Sunil Kavuri reported that he had received funds distributed from the FTX Recovery Trust and crypto exchange through Kraken. Kavuri said he had received a notice last week that FTX had sent the funds to Kraken, which released them as scheduled on Friday as part of the distribution plan for exchanges including BitGo and Payoneer.
Source: Sunil Kavuri
The distribution will mark the fifth round of attempts of repaying FTX’s creditors since the exchange filed for bankruptcy in 2022. Following this most recent distribution, FTX’s trust is estimated to have paid out about $11 billion to affected users who lost access to their funds for years.
FTX was one of the largest and most prominent exchanges to collapse in 2022 amid a market downturn, resulting in criminal charges being filed against executives due to the misuses of user funds. Former CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried and Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX’s Bahamian affiliate, were still in federal prison as of July, while former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison was released in January after serving more than a year.
Binance, ex-CEO to face challenge over $1.76 billion claim from FTX
Last week, a bankruptcy court judge ruled that the FTX trust couldn’t pursue damages against crypto exchange Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, Chief Judge Karen B. Owens did not dismiss the trust’s claim in seeking to claw back $1.76 billion from Binance used to repurchase its stake in FTX that it alleged was due in part to “Bankman-Fried’s pervasive and now well-known malfeasance.”
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
In a Friday X post, former FTX user Sunil Kavuri reported that he had received funds distributed from the FTX Recovery Trust and crypto exchange through Kraken. Kavuri said he had received a notice last week that FTX had sent the funds to Kraken, which released them as scheduled on Friday as part of the distribution plan for exchanges including BitGo and Payoneer.
Source: Sunil Kavuri
The distribution will mark the fifth round of attempts of repaying FTX’s creditors since the exchange filed for bankruptcy in 2022. Following this most recent distribution, FTX’s trust is estimated to have paid out about $11 billion to affected users who lost access to their funds for years.
FTX was one of the largest and most prominent exchanges to collapse in 2022 amid a market downturn, resulting in criminal charges being filed against executives due to the misuses of user funds. Former CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried and Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX’s Bahamian affiliate, were still in federal prison as of July, while former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison was released in January after serving more than a year.
Binance, ex-CEO to face challenge over $1.76 billion claim from FTX
Last week, a bankruptcy court judge ruled that the FTX trust couldn’t pursue damages against crypto exchange Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao. However, Chief Judge Karen B. Owens did not dismiss the trust’s claim in seeking to claw back $1.76 billion from Binance used to repurchase its stake in FTX that it alleged was due in part to “Bankman-Fried’s pervasive and now well-known malfeasance.”
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
357
Article
US Treasury yields rise as TIPS challenge the inflation narrativeKey points:
Bond yields have been going up since the beginning of the Iran war, widely attributed to inflation expectations due to energy prices
However, the five-year inflation expectation priced into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is 2.2% and trending down since May
The driver appears to be rising real yields with bearish implications for yield-free assets like Bitcoin
Continuation of Q2 bond selling
After yields reached local lows in early March, US government debt has been undergoing a multi-month sell-off. This week, after the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 30-year Treasury yields made headlines by reaching the highest level since 2007.
In line with the two-year yield rising 76 basis points (bps) in this window, a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve is priced into the markets at 63%, according to CME FedWatch.
2Y, 10Y and 30Y US Treasury Yields. Data Source: Treasury.gov
With rates at these elevated levels, government bond investments are, for the first time since 2019, more profitable than cash-and-carry trades in the crypto markets, as per Glassnode’s latest research.
2Y US Treasury yield and crypto futures carry trade. Source: Glassnode
The mainstream inflation narrative
The reason for the bond sell-off is commonly taken to be the inflationary pressures from higher commodity and energy prices. The multi-month bond sell-off coincides with the start of the Iran war and resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the daily closes of the two-year US government bond yield, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude have correlated since March at a coefficient of r=0.44:
Daily closes of WTI and Brent Crude against 2Y Yield. Data Sources: fred.stlouisfed.org, EIA
WTI briefly rose once again above $85 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump threatened Iran and bonds sold off leading into the FOMC. Nothing about the conflict suggests a near-term resolution, which has led some to argue that higher rates are being caused by inflation expectations.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price chart. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
This has driven loud inflation scares through the mainstream financial press, with recent Bloomberg headlines, such as “Global Bonds Are Reeling as Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Threat”, “US Yields Hit Two-Month High as Oil Sparks Inflation Risk” or “Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors”. Among the ever-inflation-aware crypto and precious metals audience, this narrative is popular, too:
https://x.com/silvertrade/status/2082217030108008907
Market commentator and Bitcoin influencer The Wolf of All Streets recently posted on X:
https://x.com/i/status/2082759323592073385
However, the way other Treasury securities trade does not support the inflation-driven narrative for bond yields.
TIPS say rate rises are ‘real’
While most analysts and commentators focus on regular Treasury yields for their analysis, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, have offered clear signs against the inflation narrative.
A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is an ordinary treasury bond for which the principal payment is adjusted upward in line with the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). In addition to the inflation-protected principal, each TIPS carries a fixed coupon rate. Thus, unlike for a regular bond, both principal and interest payments are inflation-adjusted.
By comparing the yield of a TIPS with a regular, equally dated Treasury, the expectation of future CPI inflation can be estimated as the so-called breakeven rate. And although Treasury yields have been rising, the five-year breakeven rate has gone down sharply since May.
Five-year breakeven inflation rate. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org
At roughly 2.2%, the five-year breakeven expects the Fed to achieve its 2% target in the medium term. However, more telling is that the breakeven rate has been moving in the opposite direction to the nominal treasury yields.
While the five-year nominal yield rose 33 bps, TIPS data suggests this was the result of an 84 bps rise in the real yield, partially offset by a 51 bps decline in expected inflation. While the inflation narrative remains a compelling story, the marketplace says otherwise. The real story ought to be a rise in real yields.
What it may mean for crypto
Generally, rising “real” investment returns on bonds and stocks in terms of CPI make non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin relatively less attractive to certain investors. Beyond this, the impact on the crypto market depends on the explanation for higher real rates, of which several are available.
Reserve liquidation — No clear impact on Crypto. Higher oil prices widen trade deficits for Asian energy importers. As oil is generally priced and settled in US dollars, shortages in the local eurodollar markets in Asia have occurred, which has put their exchange rates under pressure. The Japanese yen (JPY), Philippine peso (PHP) and Indian rupee (RBI) have all required central bank intervention to defend their exchange rates. As these measures are funded by the sale of US Treasury reserves, this puts upward pressure on bond yields. HSBC’s Frederic Neumann is on record attributing the bond sell-off to FX pressure rather than a verdict on the dollar.
Demand destruction — Bearish for Crypto. An oil shock that persists long enough stops being inflationary and starts triggering a recession. Neuberger Berman argued in its second-quarter outlook that investors are underpricing the hit to output from sustained energy prices. The credit contraction that coincides with a recession would be bad for equities and Bitcoin by severely restricting liquidity. In a real sign of recessionary credit events, credit spreads are expected to widen. Cointelegraph reported on possible first signs of this on Wednesday.
Investment demand — Likely bearish for Crypto. Real rates may have also responded to expected growth and the demand for capital from the AI sector. Government bond issuance is increasingly competing with the record issuance of corporate bonds from AI hyperscalers. Goldman Sachs Research projects roughly $755 billion of AI capex in 2026 and about $920 billion in 2027. UBS has raised its 2026 investment-grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, with technology supply lifted to $360 billion on hyperscaler guidance. As crypto is competing for a similar pool of capital and investor cohort, this is likely to suppress the sector.
US Treasury yields rise as TIPS challenge the inflation narrative
Key points:
Bond yields have been going up since the beginning of the Iran war, widely attributed to inflation expectations due to energy prices
However, the five-year inflation expectation priced into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is 2.2% and trending down since May
The driver appears to be rising real yields with bearish implications for yield-free assets like Bitcoin
Continuation of Q2 bond selling
After yields reached local lows in early March, US government debt has been undergoing a multi-month sell-off. This week, after the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 30-year Treasury yields made headlines by reaching the highest level since 2007.
In line with the two-year yield rising 76 basis points (bps) in this window, a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve is priced into the markets at 63%, according to CME FedWatch.
2Y, 10Y and 30Y US Treasury Yields. Data Source: Treasury.gov
With rates at these elevated levels, government bond investments are, for the first time since 2019, more profitable than cash-and-carry trades in the crypto markets, as per Glassnode’s latest research.
2Y US Treasury yield and crypto futures carry trade. Source: Glassnode
The mainstream inflation narrative
The reason for the bond sell-off is commonly taken to be the inflationary pressures from higher commodity and energy prices. The multi-month bond sell-off coincides with the start of the Iran war and resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the daily closes of the two-year US government bond yield, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude have correlated since March at a coefficient of r=0.44:
Daily closes of WTI and Brent Crude against 2Y Yield. Data Sources: fred.stlouisfed.org, EIA
WTI briefly rose once again above $85 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump threatened Iran and bonds sold off leading into the FOMC. Nothing about the conflict suggests a near-term resolution, which has led some to argue that higher rates are being caused by inflation expectations.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price chart. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
This has driven loud inflation scares through the mainstream financial press, with recent Bloomberg headlines, such as “Global Bonds Are Reeling as Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Threat”, “US Yields Hit Two-Month High as Oil Sparks Inflation Risk” or “Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors”. Among the ever-inflation-aware crypto and precious metals audience, this narrative is popular, too:
https://x.com/silvertrade/status/2082217030108008907
Market commentator and Bitcoin influencer The Wolf of All Streets recently posted on X:
https://x.com/i/status/2082759323592073385
However, the way other Treasury securities trade does not support the inflation-driven narrative for bond yields.
TIPS say rate rises are ‘real’
While most analysts and commentators focus on regular Treasury yields for their analysis, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, have offered clear signs against the inflation narrative.
A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is an ordinary treasury bond for which the principal payment is adjusted upward in line with the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). In addition to the inflation-protected principal, each TIPS carries a fixed coupon rate. Thus, unlike for a regular bond, both principal and interest payments are inflation-adjusted.
By comparing the yield of a TIPS with a regular, equally dated Treasury, the expectation of future CPI inflation can be estimated as the so-called breakeven rate. And although Treasury yields have been rising, the five-year breakeven rate has gone down sharply since May.
Five-year breakeven inflation rate. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org
At roughly 2.2%, the five-year breakeven expects the Fed to achieve its 2% target in the medium term. However, more telling is that the breakeven rate has been moving in the opposite direction to the nominal treasury yields.
While the five-year nominal yield rose 33 bps, TIPS data suggests this was the result of an 84 bps rise in the real yield, partially offset by a 51 bps decline in expected inflation. While the inflation narrative remains a compelling story, the marketplace says otherwise. The real story ought to be a rise in real yields.
What it may mean for crypto
Generally, rising “real” investment returns on bonds and stocks in terms of CPI make non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin relatively less attractive to certain investors. Beyond this, the impact on the crypto market depends on the explanation for higher real rates, of which several are available.
Reserve liquidation — No clear impact on Crypto. Higher oil prices widen trade deficits for Asian energy importers. As oil is generally priced and settled in US dollars, shortages in the local eurodollar markets in Asia have occurred, which has put their exchange rates under pressure. The Japanese yen (JPY), Philippine peso (PHP) and Indian rupee (RBI) have all required central bank intervention to defend their exchange rates. As these measures are funded by the sale of US Treasury reserves, this puts upward pressure on bond yields. HSBC’s Frederic Neumann is on record attributing the bond sell-off to FX pressure rather than a verdict on the dollar.
Demand destruction — Bearish for Crypto. An oil shock that persists long enough stops being inflationary and starts triggering a recession. Neuberger Berman argued in its second-quarter outlook that investors are underpricing the hit to output from sustained energy prices. The credit contraction that coincides with a recession would be bad for equities and Bitcoin by severely restricting liquidity. In a real sign of recessionary credit events, credit spreads are expected to widen. Cointelegraph reported on possible first signs of this on Wednesday.
Investment demand — Likely bearish for Crypto. Real rates may have also responded to expected growth and the demand for capital from the AI sector. Government bond issuance is increasingly competing with the record issuance of corporate bonds from AI hyperscalers. Goldman Sachs Research projects roughly $755 billion of AI capex in 2026 and about $920 billion in 2027. UBS has raised its 2026 investment-grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, with technology supply lifted to $360 billion on hyperscaler guidance. As crypto is competing for a similar pool of capital and investor cohort, this is likely to suppress the sector.
Bond yields have been going up since the beginning of the Iran war, widely attributed to inflation expectations due to energy prices
However, the five-year inflation expectation priced into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is 2.2% and trending down since May
The driver appears to be rising real yields with bearish implications for yield-free assets like Bitcoin
Continuation of Q2 bond selling
After yields reached local lows in early March, US government debt has been undergoing a multi-month sell-off. This week, after the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 30-year Treasury yields made headlines by reaching the highest level since 2007.
In line with the two-year yield rising 76 basis points (bps) in this window, a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve is priced into the markets at 63%, according to CME FedWatch.
2Y, 10Y and 30Y US Treasury Yields. Data Source: Treasury.gov
With rates at these elevated levels, government bond investments are, for the first time since 2019, more profitable than cash-and-carry trades in the crypto markets, as per Glassnode’s latest research.
2Y US Treasury yield and crypto futures carry trade. Source: Glassnode
The mainstream inflation narrative
The reason for the bond sell-off is commonly taken to be the inflationary pressures from higher commodity and energy prices. The multi-month bond sell-off coincides with the start of the Iran war and resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, the daily closes of the two-year US government bond yield, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude have correlated since March at a coefficient of r=0.44:
Daily closes of WTI and Brent Crude against 2Y Yield. Data Sources: fred.stlouisfed.org, EIA
WTI briefly rose once again above $85 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump threatened Iran and bonds sold off leading into the FOMC. Nothing about the conflict suggests a near-term resolution, which has led some to argue that higher rates are being caused by inflation expectations.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil price chart. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
This has driven loud inflation scares through the mainstream financial press, with recent Bloomberg headlines, such as “Global Bonds Are Reeling as Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Threat”, “US Yields Hit Two-Month High as Oil Sparks Inflation Risk” or “Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook Investors”. Among the ever-inflation-aware crypto and precious metals audience, this narrative is popular, too:
https://x.com/silvertrade/status/2082217030108008907
Market commentator and Bitcoin influencer The Wolf of All Streets recently posted on X:
https://x.com/i/status/2082759323592073385
However, the way other Treasury securities trade does not support the inflation-driven narrative for bond yields.
TIPS say rate rises are ‘real’
While most analysts and commentators focus on regular Treasury yields for their analysis, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, have offered clear signs against the inflation narrative.
A Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is an ordinary treasury bond for which the principal payment is adjusted upward in line with the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). In addition to the inflation-protected principal, each TIPS carries a fixed coupon rate. Thus, unlike for a regular bond, both principal and interest payments are inflation-adjusted.
By comparing the yield of a TIPS with a regular, equally dated Treasury, the expectation of future CPI inflation can be estimated as the so-called breakeven rate. And although Treasury yields have been rising, the five-year breakeven rate has gone down sharply since May.
Five-year breakeven inflation rate. Source: fred.stlouisfed.org
At roughly 2.2%, the five-year breakeven expects the Fed to achieve its 2% target in the medium term. However, more telling is that the breakeven rate has been moving in the opposite direction to the nominal treasury yields.
While the five-year nominal yield rose 33 bps, TIPS data suggests this was the result of an 84 bps rise in the real yield, partially offset by a 51 bps decline in expected inflation. While the inflation narrative remains a compelling story, the marketplace says otherwise. The real story ought to be a rise in real yields.
What it may mean for crypto
Generally, rising “real” investment returns on bonds and stocks in terms of CPI make non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin relatively less attractive to certain investors. Beyond this, the impact on the crypto market depends on the explanation for higher real rates, of which several are available.
Reserve liquidation — No clear impact on Crypto. Higher oil prices widen trade deficits for Asian energy importers. As oil is generally priced and settled in US dollars, shortages in the local eurodollar markets in Asia have occurred, which has put their exchange rates under pressure. The Japanese yen (JPY), Philippine peso (PHP) and Indian rupee (RBI) have all required central bank intervention to defend their exchange rates. As these measures are funded by the sale of US Treasury reserves, this puts upward pressure on bond yields. HSBC’s Frederic Neumann is on record attributing the bond sell-off to FX pressure rather than a verdict on the dollar.
Demand destruction — Bearish for Crypto. An oil shock that persists long enough stops being inflationary and starts triggering a recession. Neuberger Berman argued in its second-quarter outlook that investors are underpricing the hit to output from sustained energy prices. The credit contraction that coincides with a recession would be bad for equities and Bitcoin by severely restricting liquidity. In a real sign of recessionary credit events, credit spreads are expected to widen. Cointelegraph reported on possible first signs of this on Wednesday.
Investment demand — Likely bearish for Crypto. Real rates may have also responded to expected growth and the demand for capital from the AI sector. Government bond issuance is increasingly competing with the record issuance of corporate bonds from AI hyperscalers. Goldman Sachs Research projects roughly $755 billion of AI capex in 2026 and about $920 billion in 2027. UBS has raised its 2026 investment-grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, with technology supply lifted to $360 billion on hyperscaler guidance. As crypto is competing for a similar pool of capital and investor cohort, this is likely to suppress the sector.
347
Article
Bitcoin price sinks to 2-week lows as US stocks fail to copy Asia reboundBitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest levels in over two weeks on Friday as US stocks saw pressure into the monthly close.
Key points:
Bitcoin approaches $62,000 as daily losses hit 3.5%.
US stocks saw no positive reactions to relief in Asia, where stocks rebounded after the semiconductor sell-off.
Analysis warns that Bitcoin bear-market history should continue to repeat in August.
Bitcoin price targets $62,000 in month-end volatility
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling 3.5% to reach $62,369 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on July 14.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
US stocks turned red at the open before treading water, diverging from a major relief bounce seen in Asia. There, South Korea’s KOSPI index ended the day up 17.9%, its largest single-day gain on record.
KOSPI index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Semiconductor shares led both the sell-off and the subsequent recovery, reflecting the index’s high exposure to the global AI and memory-chip cycle,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in commentary on the latest macro market moves.
QCP noted that crypto market trading activity increased around the KOSPI gyrations, something it said “highlighted the growing relationship between crypto liquidity, regional equity positioning and broader technology-sector sentiment.”
Both Japan and Korea reportedly engaged in currency interventions on Thursday, while Japan’s central bank kept benchmark interest rates at 1.0%, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stand pat on Wednesday.
Bitcoin traders see bear-market history repeating in August
BTC/USD approached the end of the monthly candle up 8.5%, marking its strongest July performance since 2022, per data from CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Previously, traders had anticipated a relief bounce for the pair lasting until August, mirroring the 2022 bear market and ultimately reaching its next long-term bottom.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, among those seeing BTC price action copying bear-market moves from four years ago, forecast that the tide might not turn immediately.
“It’s likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022,” he wrote in a post on X on Friday.
Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,820, continued to act as resistance after two failed breakouts since mid-June.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin price sinks to 2-week lows as US stocks fail to copy Asia rebound
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest levels in over two weeks on Friday as US stocks saw pressure into the monthly close.
Key points:
Bitcoin approaches $62,000 as daily losses hit 3.5%.
US stocks saw no positive reactions to relief in Asia, where stocks rebounded after the semiconductor sell-off.
Analysis warns that Bitcoin bear-market history should continue to repeat in August.
Bitcoin price targets $62,000 in month-end volatility
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling 3.5% to reach $62,369 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on July 14.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
US stocks turned red at the open before treading water, diverging from a major relief bounce seen in Asia. There, South Korea’s KOSPI index ended the day up 17.9%, its largest single-day gain on record.
KOSPI index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Semiconductor shares led both the sell-off and the subsequent recovery, reflecting the index’s high exposure to the global AI and memory-chip cycle,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in commentary on the latest macro market moves.
QCP noted that crypto market trading activity increased around the KOSPI gyrations, something it said “highlighted the growing relationship between crypto liquidity, regional equity positioning and broader technology-sector sentiment.”
Both Japan and Korea reportedly engaged in currency interventions on Thursday, while Japan’s central bank kept benchmark interest rates at 1.0%, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stand pat on Wednesday.
Bitcoin traders see bear-market history repeating in August
BTC/USD approached the end of the monthly candle up 8.5%, marking its strongest July performance since 2022, per data from CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Previously, traders had anticipated a relief bounce for the pair lasting until August, mirroring the 2022 bear market and ultimately reaching its next long-term bottom.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, among those seeing BTC price action copying bear-market moves from four years ago, forecast that the tide might not turn immediately.
“It’s likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022,” he wrote in a post on X on Friday.
Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,820, continued to act as resistance after two failed breakouts since mid-June.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Key points:
Bitcoin approaches $62,000 as daily losses hit 3.5%.
US stocks saw no positive reactions to relief in Asia, where stocks rebounded after the semiconductor sell-off.
Analysis warns that Bitcoin bear-market history should continue to repeat in August.
Bitcoin price targets $62,000 in month-end volatility
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling 3.5% to reach $62,369 on Bitstamp, a level last seen on July 14.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
US stocks turned red at the open before treading water, diverging from a major relief bounce seen in Asia. There, South Korea’s KOSPI index ended the day up 17.9%, its largest single-day gain on record.
KOSPI index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Semiconductor shares led both the sell-off and the subsequent recovery, reflecting the index’s high exposure to the global AI and memory-chip cycle,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in commentary on the latest macro market moves.
QCP noted that crypto market trading activity increased around the KOSPI gyrations, something it said “highlighted the growing relationship between crypto liquidity, regional equity positioning and broader technology-sector sentiment.”
Both Japan and Korea reportedly engaged in currency interventions on Thursday, while Japan’s central bank kept benchmark interest rates at 1.0%, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stand pat on Wednesday.
Bitcoin traders see bear-market history repeating in August
BTC/USD approached the end of the monthly candle up 8.5%, marking its strongest July performance since 2022, per data from CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Previously, traders had anticipated a relief bounce for the pair lasting until August, mirroring the 2022 bear market and ultimately reaching its next long-term bottom.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, among those seeing BTC price action copying bear-market moves from four years ago, forecast that the tide might not turn immediately.
“It’s likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022,” he wrote in a post on X on Friday.
Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,820, continued to act as resistance after two failed breakouts since mid-June.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
175
ECB says digital euro app will exceed EU accessibility standardsThe European Central Bank (ECB) said Thursday its planned digital euro app will exceed the accessibility requirements of the European Accessibility Act.
The proposed design includes enhanced visual design, full keyboard navigation, screen-reader support, time-out warnings, simplified language, error prevention and reduced motion settings, among other accessibility features, the ECB said in a Thursday release.
The ECB first described the standalone digital euro app in an October 2025 progress report, saying it would serve as a fallback if bank apps failed and allow users to switch payment service providers without learning a new application. The report said both bank and non-bank payment service providers opposed mandatory support for the standalone app.
The digital euro is the European Union’s proposed central bank digital currency (CBDC), designed to complement cash by providing a public digital payment option across the euro area.
On July 14, the ECB selected 36 payment service providers to participate in a 12-month pilot scheduled to begin in the second half of 2027, testing the system before any decision on issuance.
The digital euro has drawn criticism from some privacy advocates and lawmakers, who argue a CBDC could enable greater government surveillance of payments, while the ECB has said it will include privacy safeguards.
ECB says digital euro app will exceed EU accessibility standards
The European Central Bank (ECB) said Thursday its planned digital euro app will exceed the accessibility requirements of the European Accessibility Act.
The proposed design includes enhanced visual design, full keyboard navigation, screen-reader support, time-out warnings, simplified language, error prevention and reduced motion settings, among other accessibility features, the ECB said in a Thursday release.
The ECB first described the standalone digital euro app in an October 2025 progress report, saying it would serve as a fallback if bank apps failed and allow users to switch payment service providers without learning a new application. The report said both bank and non-bank payment service providers opposed mandatory support for the standalone app.
The digital euro is the European Union’s proposed central bank digital currency (CBDC), designed to complement cash by providing a public digital payment option across the euro area.
On July 14, the ECB selected 36 payment service providers to participate in a 12-month pilot scheduled to begin in the second half of 2027, testing the system before any decision on issuance.
The digital euro has drawn criticism from some privacy advocates and lawmakers, who argue a CBDC could enable greater government surveillance of payments, while the ECB has said it will include privacy safeguards.
The proposed design includes enhanced visual design, full keyboard navigation, screen-reader support, time-out warnings, simplified language, error prevention and reduced motion settings, among other accessibility features, the ECB said in a Thursday release.
The ECB first described the standalone digital euro app in an October 2025 progress report, saying it would serve as a fallback if bank apps failed and allow users to switch payment service providers without learning a new application. The report said both bank and non-bank payment service providers opposed mandatory support for the standalone app.
The digital euro is the European Union’s proposed central bank digital currency (CBDC), designed to complement cash by providing a public digital payment option across the euro area.
On July 14, the ECB selected 36 payment service providers to participate in a 12-month pilot scheduled to begin in the second half of 2027, testing the system before any decision on issuance.
The digital euro has drawn criticism from some privacy advocates and lawmakers, who argue a CBDC could enable greater government surveillance of payments, while the ECB has said it will include privacy safeguards.
96
AMLBot launches AI Tracer for self-service blockchain investigationsCrypto forensics and compliance company AMLBot has launched its AI Tracer, described as a self-service blockchain analysis tool that maps visible fund movements from a transaction hash across blockchain networks.
AMLBot said the tool aims to address the current need for specialist software and knowledge to trace transactions. The company said the tool also traces through bridges that move assets cross-chain or when the assets are split among multiple wallets.
“The process is automatic: the AI traverses the transaction graph, follows the movement of funds from the starting address through intermediate wallets toward whatever endpoint the money reached, and matches known entity labels — exchanges, services, flagged addresses — against every wallet it encounters,” the company said in a press release shared with Cointelegraph.
According to the announcement, AI Tracer cannot see transfers between internal exchange accounts, determine why a payment was made, freeze assets or guarantee recovery. Its reports are intended as a starting point for investigations and do not replace an audit or legal process.
The tool offers a free check and offers paid plans with higher limits on the number of automated checks. Currently supported networks include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, TRON, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Ethereum Classic, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Solana, Cardano and Ripple.
AMLBot said the tool is suitable for journalists, researchers, traders, and crypto user who want to read transaction paths, as well as law enforcement agents investigating crypto crime and independent investigators or compliance teams.
AMLBot launches AI Tracer for self-service blockchain investigations
Crypto forensics and compliance company AMLBot has launched its AI Tracer, described as a self-service blockchain analysis tool that maps visible fund movements from a transaction hash across blockchain networks.
AMLBot said the tool aims to address the current need for specialist software and knowledge to trace transactions. The company said the tool also traces through bridges that move assets cross-chain or when the assets are split among multiple wallets.
“The process is automatic: the AI traverses the transaction graph, follows the movement of funds from the starting address through intermediate wallets toward whatever endpoint the money reached, and matches known entity labels — exchanges, services, flagged addresses — against every wallet it encounters,” the company said in a press release shared with Cointelegraph.
According to the announcement, AI Tracer cannot see transfers between internal exchange accounts, determine why a payment was made, freeze assets or guarantee recovery. Its reports are intended as a starting point for investigations and do not replace an audit or legal process.
The tool offers a free check and offers paid plans with higher limits on the number of automated checks. Currently supported networks include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, TRON, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Ethereum Classic, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Solana, Cardano and Ripple.
AMLBot said the tool is suitable for journalists, researchers, traders, and crypto user who want to read transaction paths, as well as law enforcement agents investigating crypto crime and independent investigators or compliance teams.
AMLBot said the tool aims to address the current need for specialist software and knowledge to trace transactions. The company said the tool also traces through bridges that move assets cross-chain or when the assets are split among multiple wallets.
“The process is automatic: the AI traverses the transaction graph, follows the movement of funds from the starting address through intermediate wallets toward whatever endpoint the money reached, and matches known entity labels — exchanges, services, flagged addresses — against every wallet it encounters,” the company said in a press release shared with Cointelegraph.
According to the announcement, AI Tracer cannot see transfers between internal exchange accounts, determine why a payment was made, freeze assets or guarantee recovery. Its reports are intended as a starting point for investigations and do not replace an audit or legal process.
The tool offers a free check and offers paid plans with higher limits on the number of automated checks. Currently supported networks include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, TRON, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Ethereum Classic, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Solana, Cardano and Ripple.
AMLBot said the tool is suitable for journalists, researchers, traders, and crypto user who want to read transaction paths, as well as law enforcement agents investigating crypto crime and independent investigators or compliance teams.
301
Circle receives New York trust charter for subsidiaryCircle said Friday that the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has granted a limited purpose trust charter to its subsidiary, Circle Internet Trust Company LLC.
A limited purpose trust charter is issued under New York Banking Law for institutions that do not have the general power to accept deposits or make loans like traditional banks, according to the NYDFS.
Instead, charter holders may exercise fiduciary powers and conduct activities such as custodial services, investment management, corporate trust, transfer agency and securities clearance. NYDFS also notes that some applicants seek to engage in virtual currency-related activity.
“Earning a New York trust charter has been a longstanding objective for Circle given the regulatory clarity that comes with it,” CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a press release.
Circle was the first company to receive a NYDFS BitLicense in 2015, allowing it to conduct virtual currency business in New York.
The company issues the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC, which has a market capitalization of $71.8 billion, making it the second-largest stablecoin behind Tether USDt (USDT) and the fifth-largest cryptocurrency.
Circle receives New York trust charter for subsidiary
Circle said Friday that the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has granted a limited purpose trust charter to its subsidiary, Circle Internet Trust Company LLC.
A limited purpose trust charter is issued under New York Banking Law for institutions that do not have the general power to accept deposits or make loans like traditional banks, according to the NYDFS.
Instead, charter holders may exercise fiduciary powers and conduct activities such as custodial services, investment management, corporate trust, transfer agency and securities clearance. NYDFS also notes that some applicants seek to engage in virtual currency-related activity.
“Earning a New York trust charter has been a longstanding objective for Circle given the regulatory clarity that comes with it,” CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a press release.
Circle was the first company to receive a NYDFS BitLicense in 2015, allowing it to conduct virtual currency business in New York.
The company issues the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC, which has a market capitalization of $71.8 billion, making it the second-largest stablecoin behind Tether USDt (USDT) and the fifth-largest cryptocurrency.
A limited purpose trust charter is issued under New York Banking Law for institutions that do not have the general power to accept deposits or make loans like traditional banks, according to the NYDFS.
Instead, charter holders may exercise fiduciary powers and conduct activities such as custodial services, investment management, corporate trust, transfer agency and securities clearance. NYDFS also notes that some applicants seek to engage in virtual currency-related activity.
“Earning a New York trust charter has been a longstanding objective for Circle given the regulatory clarity that comes with it,” CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a press release.
Circle was the first company to receive a NYDFS BitLicense in 2015, allowing it to conduct virtual currency business in New York.
The company issues the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC, which has a market capitalization of $71.8 billion, making it the second-largest stablecoin behind Tether USDt (USDT) and the fifth-largest cryptocurrency.
112
Article
BOJ intervenes to defend yen near 160, holds rates steadyJapan’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.0% on Friday after a reported major intervention in the yen.
Key points:
Japan holds interest rates at 1.0%, following market expectations.
Both Japan and South Korea’s central banks reportedly engage in currency interventions, as the JPY briefly gains 3.5% overnight.
Bank of Japan warns of incoming CPI inflation headwinds in the second half of the year.
Yen rises up to 3.5% as Korea joins intervention
In its latest statement, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) revealed broad consensus among officials for holding rates at current levels — an outcome that markets had anticipated in advance.
“The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent,” it confirmed.
Eight out of nine members of the bank’s Policy Board voted for the outcome, with only Hajime Takata proposing a 0.25% rate hike.
Japan benchmark interest rate (screenshot). Source: BoJ
Japan’s benchmark rate remains at its highest levels since 1995, with the BoJ meeting result coming just hours after the yen saw snap volatility. Against the US dollar, the currency rose by as much as 3.5% on Thursday, per data from TradingView, in a move that has widely been attributed to central bank intervention
JPY/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The BoJ did not officially comment on the latest moves, which coincided with a significant rebound in the South Korean stock market after days of heavy selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. The Korean won was up by around 1% at the time of writing amid reports of a joint intervention between the BoJ and Korea’s central bank. Analysts referenced “tightly aligned” mutual interests of the two countries as facilitating the joint move.
“The interests of each country aligned. For Korea-Japan cooperation, the won and the yen are so tightly coupled that a joint intervention could double the impact,” Lee Min-hyuk, an analyst at KB Kookmin Bank, commented to local media outlet Straits Times.
The Nikkei newspaper earlier noted that the US had engaged in rate checks — a form of soft intervention which can precede a more pronounced operation — during Thursday’s trading session, resulting in speculation over a three-way coordinated move.
“The key signal from last night’s move is that MOF remains uncomfortable with excessive yen weakness. The line in the sand is probably better viewed as a zone around 162-165 rather than a specific level,” Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at asset manager State Street Investment Management, told CNBC.
BoJ sees CPI inflation headwinds increasing in 2026
As the yen came off its highest levels against the dollar since 1986, the BoJ warned of future upside in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
“The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index [...] is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2 percent from the second half of fiscal 2026,” it stated in its latest quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report.
In addition to rising prices of durable goods, the report referenced “waning of the effects of high crude oil prices” due to the ongoing US-Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil-transit route.
Gyrations in the yen have remained an important consideration in crypto trading circles ever since the “unwinding” of the yen carry trade sparked major Bitcoin and altcoin downside pressure in August 2024.
Earlier this year, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, suggested that the combination of a weak yen and rising Japanese bond yields may cause investors to move away from low-yielding US bond allocations. He linked central bank liquidity interventions to positive moves in crypto markets.
“This discussion of Japanese financial markets is important because for Bitcoin to exit its sideways funk, it needs a healthy dose of money printing,” he wrote in a blog post.
In December 2025, Hayes predicted that USD/JPY could rise as high as 200.
BOJ intervenes to defend yen near 160, holds rates steady
Japan’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.0% on Friday after a reported major intervention in the yen.
Key points:
Japan holds interest rates at 1.0%, following market expectations.
Both Japan and South Korea’s central banks reportedly engage in currency interventions, as the JPY briefly gains 3.5% overnight.
Bank of Japan warns of incoming CPI inflation headwinds in the second half of the year.
Yen rises up to 3.5% as Korea joins intervention
In its latest statement, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) revealed broad consensus among officials for holding rates at current levels — an outcome that markets had anticipated in advance.
“The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent,” it confirmed.
Eight out of nine members of the bank’s Policy Board voted for the outcome, with only Hajime Takata proposing a 0.25% rate hike.
Japan benchmark interest rate (screenshot). Source: BoJ
Japan’s benchmark rate remains at its highest levels since 1995, with the BoJ meeting result coming just hours after the yen saw snap volatility. Against the US dollar, the currency rose by as much as 3.5% on Thursday, per data from TradingView, in a move that has widely been attributed to central bank intervention
JPY/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The BoJ did not officially comment on the latest moves, which coincided with a significant rebound in the South Korean stock market after days of heavy selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. The Korean won was up by around 1% at the time of writing amid reports of a joint intervention between the BoJ and Korea’s central bank. Analysts referenced “tightly aligned” mutual interests of the two countries as facilitating the joint move.
“The interests of each country aligned. For Korea-Japan cooperation, the won and the yen are so tightly coupled that a joint intervention could double the impact,” Lee Min-hyuk, an analyst at KB Kookmin Bank, commented to local media outlet Straits Times.
The Nikkei newspaper earlier noted that the US had engaged in rate checks — a form of soft intervention which can precede a more pronounced operation — during Thursday’s trading session, resulting in speculation over a three-way coordinated move.
“The key signal from last night’s move is that MOF remains uncomfortable with excessive yen weakness. The line in the sand is probably better viewed as a zone around 162-165 rather than a specific level,” Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at asset manager State Street Investment Management, told CNBC.
BoJ sees CPI inflation headwinds increasing in 2026
As the yen came off its highest levels against the dollar since 1986, the BoJ warned of future upside in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
“The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index [...] is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2 percent from the second half of fiscal 2026,” it stated in its latest quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report.
In addition to rising prices of durable goods, the report referenced “waning of the effects of high crude oil prices” due to the ongoing US-Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil-transit route.
Gyrations in the yen have remained an important consideration in crypto trading circles ever since the “unwinding” of the yen carry trade sparked major Bitcoin and altcoin downside pressure in August 2024.
Earlier this year, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, suggested that the combination of a weak yen and rising Japanese bond yields may cause investors to move away from low-yielding US bond allocations. He linked central bank liquidity interventions to positive moves in crypto markets.
“This discussion of Japanese financial markets is important because for Bitcoin to exit its sideways funk, it needs a healthy dose of money printing,” he wrote in a blog post.
In December 2025, Hayes predicted that USD/JPY could rise as high as 200.
Key points:
Japan holds interest rates at 1.0%, following market expectations.
Both Japan and South Korea’s central banks reportedly engage in currency interventions, as the JPY briefly gains 3.5% overnight.
Bank of Japan warns of incoming CPI inflation headwinds in the second half of the year.
Yen rises up to 3.5% as Korea joins intervention
In its latest statement, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) revealed broad consensus among officials for holding rates at current levels — an outcome that markets had anticipated in advance.
“The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent,” it confirmed.
Eight out of nine members of the bank’s Policy Board voted for the outcome, with only Hajime Takata proposing a 0.25% rate hike.
Japan benchmark interest rate (screenshot). Source: BoJ
Japan’s benchmark rate remains at its highest levels since 1995, with the BoJ meeting result coming just hours after the yen saw snap volatility. Against the US dollar, the currency rose by as much as 3.5% on Thursday, per data from TradingView, in a move that has widely been attributed to central bank intervention
JPY/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The BoJ did not officially comment on the latest moves, which coincided with a significant rebound in the South Korean stock market after days of heavy selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. The Korean won was up by around 1% at the time of writing amid reports of a joint intervention between the BoJ and Korea’s central bank. Analysts referenced “tightly aligned” mutual interests of the two countries as facilitating the joint move.
“The interests of each country aligned. For Korea-Japan cooperation, the won and the yen are so tightly coupled that a joint intervention could double the impact,” Lee Min-hyuk, an analyst at KB Kookmin Bank, commented to local media outlet Straits Times.
The Nikkei newspaper earlier noted that the US had engaged in rate checks — a form of soft intervention which can precede a more pronounced operation — during Thursday’s trading session, resulting in speculation over a three-way coordinated move.
“The key signal from last night’s move is that MOF remains uncomfortable with excessive yen weakness. The line in the sand is probably better viewed as a zone around 162-165 rather than a specific level,” Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at asset manager State Street Investment Management, told CNBC.
BoJ sees CPI inflation headwinds increasing in 2026
As the yen came off its highest levels against the dollar since 1986, the BoJ warned of future upside in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
“The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index [...] is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2 percent from the second half of fiscal 2026,” it stated in its latest quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report.
In addition to rising prices of durable goods, the report referenced “waning of the effects of high crude oil prices” due to the ongoing US-Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil-transit route.
Gyrations in the yen have remained an important consideration in crypto trading circles ever since the “unwinding” of the yen carry trade sparked major Bitcoin and altcoin downside pressure in August 2024.
Earlier this year, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, suggested that the combination of a weak yen and rising Japanese bond yields may cause investors to move away from low-yielding US bond allocations. He linked central bank liquidity interventions to positive moves in crypto markets.
“This discussion of Japanese financial markets is important because for Bitcoin to exit its sideways funk, it needs a healthy dose of money printing,” he wrote in a blog post.
In December 2025, Hayes predicted that USD/JPY could rise as high as 200.
63
Citadel buys bulk of Situational Awareness stock portfolio after AI rout: ReportsKen Griffin’s Citadel reportedly bought a large proportion of the public stock portfolio of Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner.
The Financial Times first reported Thursday that Citadel bought the discounted portfolio after heavy losses during July’s artificial intelligence stock market rout.
The transaction followed Aschenbrenner’s fund falling about 67% in July, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a person who saw a letter sent to investors. The letter said the fund remained up about 80% for the year. The Financial Times previously reported the fund was up 439% through June.
Those reports suggested Situational had approached existing investors and lenders for fresh capital and offered some investors the option to buy portfolio assets. The Journal also reported Situational needed cash to meet margin calls from its lenders and that the fund agreed late Wednesday to sell $3.5 billion of Anthropic shares to a group led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital before withdrawing from the deal Thursday morning.
Reuters separately reported the leveraged-portfolio detail but said it could not determine whether formal margin calls had been issued before the sale. Reuters said Situational retained roughly $10 billion in stocks and private investments, including Anthropic.
AI holdings suffered steep July falls
Several stocks linked to the fund suffered sharp declines in July. Sandisk remained down about 44% for the month even after closing Thursday up 26%. CoreWeave fell nearly 26% in July, while Bloom Energy was down around 32%, Yahoo Finance data shows.
Situational’s US Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed direct share positions in all three companies as of March 31.
The same filing showed about $1.11 billion in shares of seven Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies, including Iren, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Cointelegraph previously reported that the positions gave Situational exposure to miners expanding into AI and high-performance computing by repurposing their power supplies and data center sites.
It remains unclear what stocks were part of the transaction between Citadel and Situational or whether the fund retained any of its Bitcoin miner positions.
Aschenbrenner’s fund takes its name from his 2024 essay series, “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” which argued that artificial general intelligence could arrive by 2027 and drive enormous demand for computing power and electricity.
Before joining OpenAI, Aschenbrenner was a member of the FTX Future Fund’s five-person team and signed its November 2022 resignation notice as FTX collapsed.
Cointelegraph contacted Situational Awareness and Citadel for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
Citadel buys bulk of Situational Awareness stock portfolio after AI rout: Reports
Ken Griffin’s Citadel reportedly bought a large proportion of the public stock portfolio of Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner.
The Financial Times first reported Thursday that Citadel bought the discounted portfolio after heavy losses during July’s artificial intelligence stock market rout.
The transaction followed Aschenbrenner’s fund falling about 67% in July, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a person who saw a letter sent to investors. The letter said the fund remained up about 80% for the year. The Financial Times previously reported the fund was up 439% through June.
Those reports suggested Situational had approached existing investors and lenders for fresh capital and offered some investors the option to buy portfolio assets. The Journal also reported Situational needed cash to meet margin calls from its lenders and that the fund agreed late Wednesday to sell $3.5 billion of Anthropic shares to a group led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital before withdrawing from the deal Thursday morning.
Reuters separately reported the leveraged-portfolio detail but said it could not determine whether formal margin calls had been issued before the sale. Reuters said Situational retained roughly $10 billion in stocks and private investments, including Anthropic.
AI holdings suffered steep July falls
Several stocks linked to the fund suffered sharp declines in July. Sandisk remained down about 44% for the month even after closing Thursday up 26%. CoreWeave fell nearly 26% in July, while Bloom Energy was down around 32%, Yahoo Finance data shows.
Situational’s US Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed direct share positions in all three companies as of March 31.
The same filing showed about $1.11 billion in shares of seven Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies, including Iren, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Cointelegraph previously reported that the positions gave Situational exposure to miners expanding into AI and high-performance computing by repurposing their power supplies and data center sites.
It remains unclear what stocks were part of the transaction between Citadel and Situational or whether the fund retained any of its Bitcoin miner positions.
Aschenbrenner’s fund takes its name from his 2024 essay series, “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” which argued that artificial general intelligence could arrive by 2027 and drive enormous demand for computing power and electricity.
Before joining OpenAI, Aschenbrenner was a member of the FTX Future Fund’s five-person team and signed its November 2022 resignation notice as FTX collapsed.
Cointelegraph contacted Situational Awareness and Citadel for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
The Financial Times first reported Thursday that Citadel bought the discounted portfolio after heavy losses during July’s artificial intelligence stock market rout.
The transaction followed Aschenbrenner’s fund falling about 67% in July, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a person who saw a letter sent to investors. The letter said the fund remained up about 80% for the year. The Financial Times previously reported the fund was up 439% through June.
Those reports suggested Situational had approached existing investors and lenders for fresh capital and offered some investors the option to buy portfolio assets. The Journal also reported Situational needed cash to meet margin calls from its lenders and that the fund agreed late Wednesday to sell $3.5 billion of Anthropic shares to a group led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital before withdrawing from the deal Thursday morning.
Reuters separately reported the leveraged-portfolio detail but said it could not determine whether formal margin calls had been issued before the sale. Reuters said Situational retained roughly $10 billion in stocks and private investments, including Anthropic.
AI holdings suffered steep July falls
Several stocks linked to the fund suffered sharp declines in July. Sandisk remained down about 44% for the month even after closing Thursday up 26%. CoreWeave fell nearly 26% in July, while Bloom Energy was down around 32%, Yahoo Finance data shows.
Situational’s US Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed direct share positions in all three companies as of March 31.
The same filing showed about $1.11 billion in shares of seven Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies, including Iren, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Cointelegraph previously reported that the positions gave Situational exposure to miners expanding into AI and high-performance computing by repurposing their power supplies and data center sites.
It remains unclear what stocks were part of the transaction between Citadel and Situational or whether the fund retained any of its Bitcoin miner positions.
Aschenbrenner’s fund takes its name from his 2024 essay series, “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” which argued that artificial general intelligence could arrive by 2027 and drive enormous demand for computing power and electricity.
Before joining OpenAI, Aschenbrenner was a member of the FTX Future Fund’s five-person team and signed its November 2022 resignation notice as FTX collapsed.
Cointelegraph contacted Situational Awareness and Citadel for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
97
BIS Project Agorá settles $1 million in tokenized cross-border payment trialsThe Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said Project Agorá completed real-value testing of tokenized wholesale cross-border payments, with 28 financial institutions and central banks settling about 800,000 Swiss francs (about $1 million) across 17 transaction scenarios.
The BIS said Thursday that the tests used tokenized central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits to settle payments in Swiss francs, euros, pounds sterling, Japanese yen, South Korean won and US dollars, with an average settlement time of about 80 seconds.
Participants included the Bank of England, Bank of France, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea and the Swiss National Bank, alongside commercial banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, UBS, Standard Chartered and MUFG.
Project Agorá is a BIS initiative launched in 2024 to explore how tokenized commercial bank deposits and central bank reserves can improve cross-border wholesale payments. In May, the project reported that its prototype demonstrated atomic settlement across multiple currencies and jurisdictions.
The BIS said the July trials marked an important milestone and that testing will continue as Project Agorá progresses.
BIS Project Agorá settles $1 million in tokenized cross-border payment trials
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said Project Agorá completed real-value testing of tokenized wholesale cross-border payments, with 28 financial institutions and central banks settling about 800,000 Swiss francs (about $1 million) across 17 transaction scenarios.
The BIS said Thursday that the tests used tokenized central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits to settle payments in Swiss francs, euros, pounds sterling, Japanese yen, South Korean won and US dollars, with an average settlement time of about 80 seconds.
Participants included the Bank of England, Bank of France, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea and the Swiss National Bank, alongside commercial banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, UBS, Standard Chartered and MUFG.
Project Agorá is a BIS initiative launched in 2024 to explore how tokenized commercial bank deposits and central bank reserves can improve cross-border wholesale payments. In May, the project reported that its prototype demonstrated atomic settlement across multiple currencies and jurisdictions.
The BIS said the July trials marked an important milestone and that testing will continue as Project Agorá progresses.
The BIS said Thursday that the tests used tokenized central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits to settle payments in Swiss francs, euros, pounds sterling, Japanese yen, South Korean won and US dollars, with an average settlement time of about 80 seconds.
Participants included the Bank of England, Bank of France, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea and the Swiss National Bank, alongside commercial banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, UBS, Standard Chartered and MUFG.
Project Agorá is a BIS initiative launched in 2024 to explore how tokenized commercial bank deposits and central bank reserves can improve cross-border wholesale payments. In May, the project reported that its prototype demonstrated atomic settlement across multiple currencies and jurisdictions.
The BIS said the July trials marked an important milestone and that testing will continue as Project Agorá progresses.
2
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New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operationNew York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts on sports, elections and other outcomes.
The lawsuit seeks to stop Kalshi’s alleged illegal gambling operation in the state, require the company to forfeit illegal gains, pay restitution to users and pay civil penalties equal to three times those gains.
“No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple,” Attorney General Letitia James said in Friday’s statement. “We are taking them to court to uphold our laws and protect New Yorkers.”
The lawsuit comes after the New York State Gaming Commission issued Kalshi a cease-and-desist order in October 2025, prompting the company to sue the regulator in federal court.
A judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in July, and an appeals court later rejected its bid to block enforcement while the appeal proceeds.
Kalshi did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.
CFTC defends federal oversight of prediction markets
The lawsuit adds to an escalating jurisdictional dispute over whether event contracts offered by federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws.
Just before New York filed its case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an emergency motion seeking to block New York’s enforcement efforts, arguing that the state’s actions interfere with the agency’s exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate designated contract markets like Kalshi.
The CFTC has taken similar positions in disputes involving at least nine states, arguing that allowing states to prohibit event contracts listed by federally regulated exchanges would create conflicting state rules and undermine federal commodities regulation.
Prediction markets continue to gain mainstream traction
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events, with prices reflecting the market’s estimate of the probability that an event will occur.
Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket, has also faced regulatory scrutiny, with several countries restricting or investigating its operations over gambling and licensing concerns.
Kalshi began expanding into blockchain-based infrastructure in December 2025, launching tokenized prediction markets on Solana and later adding support for multiple blockchain networks.
The broader prediction market sector has also grown alongside major sporting events.
According to analytics firm Chainalysis, blockchain-based prediction markets processed about $20 billion in trading tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with more than 400,000 wallets participating.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
New York sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling operation
New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal, unlicensed gambling business by offering event contracts on sports, elections and other outcomes.
The lawsuit seeks to stop Kalshi’s alleged illegal gambling operation in the state, require the company to forfeit illegal gains, pay restitution to users and pay civil penalties equal to three times those gains.
“No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple,” Attorney General Letitia James said in Friday’s statement. “We are taking them to court to uphold our laws and protect New Yorkers.”
The lawsuit comes after the New York State Gaming Commission issued Kalshi a cease-and-desist order in October 2025, prompting the company to sue the regulator in federal court.
A judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in July, and an appeals court later rejected its bid to block enforcement while the appeal proceeds.
Kalshi did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.
CFTC defends federal oversight of prediction markets
The lawsuit adds to an escalating jurisdictional dispute over whether event contracts offered by federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws.
Just before New York filed its case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an emergency motion seeking to block New York’s enforcement efforts, arguing that the state’s actions interfere with the agency’s exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate designated contract markets like Kalshi.
The CFTC has taken similar positions in disputes involving at least nine states, arguing that allowing states to prohibit event contracts listed by federally regulated exchanges would create conflicting state rules and undermine federal commodities regulation.
Prediction markets continue to gain mainstream traction
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events, with prices reflecting the market’s estimate of the probability that an event will occur.
Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket, has also faced regulatory scrutiny, with several countries restricting or investigating its operations over gambling and licensing concerns.
Kalshi began expanding into blockchain-based infrastructure in December 2025, launching tokenized prediction markets on Solana and later adding support for multiple blockchain networks.
The broader prediction market sector has also grown alongside major sporting events.
According to analytics firm Chainalysis, blockchain-based prediction markets processed about $20 billion in trading tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with more than 400,000 wallets participating.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
The lawsuit seeks to stop Kalshi’s alleged illegal gambling operation in the state, require the company to forfeit illegal gains, pay restitution to users and pay civil penalties equal to three times those gains.
“No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple,” Attorney General Letitia James said in Friday’s statement. “We are taking them to court to uphold our laws and protect New Yorkers.”
The lawsuit comes after the New York State Gaming Commission issued Kalshi a cease-and-desist order in October 2025, prompting the company to sue the regulator in federal court.
A judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in July, and an appeals court later rejected its bid to block enforcement while the appeal proceeds.
Kalshi did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.
CFTC defends federal oversight of prediction markets
The lawsuit adds to an escalating jurisdictional dispute over whether event contracts offered by federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws.
Just before New York filed its case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an emergency motion seeking to block New York’s enforcement efforts, arguing that the state’s actions interfere with the agency’s exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate designated contract markets like Kalshi.
The CFTC has taken similar positions in disputes involving at least nine states, arguing that allowing states to prohibit event contracts listed by federally regulated exchanges would create conflicting state rules and undermine federal commodities regulation.
Prediction markets continue to gain mainstream traction
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events, with prices reflecting the market’s estimate of the probability that an event will occur.
Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket, has also faced regulatory scrutiny, with several countries restricting or investigating its operations over gambling and licensing concerns.
Kalshi began expanding into blockchain-based infrastructure in December 2025, launching tokenized prediction markets on Solana and later adding support for multiple blockchain networks.
The broader prediction market sector has also grown alongside major sporting events.
According to analytics firm Chainalysis, blockchain-based prediction markets processed about $20 billion in trading tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with more than 400,000 wallets participating.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
185
Article
Aave weighs closing 6 V3 blockchain markets, offboarding 50 low-use reservesAn Aave governance proposal would wind down the lending protocol’s V3 markets on six blockchains and retire dozens of low-use token listings, a cleanup covering $98.1 million in supplied assets and $15.6 million in debt.
Risk service provider LlamaRisk, working with other Aave service providers, recommended offboarding 50 low-use reserves and 21 matured Pendle principal token listings across 11 deployments. It also proposed retiring all 25 reserves on Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium and Aptos. The balances were measured on July 28.
An ARFC is a detailed proposal and precursor to an Aave Improvement Proposal; it is not, by itself, proof of a completed final onchain vote or execution.
Aptos exit follows recent launch
The proposed Aptos exit comes just 11 months after Aave launched its V3 market there, with available liquidity down 94% over six months and quarterly revenue below $1,000, according to LlamaRisk.
Every reserve on Scroll, zkSync, Metis and Soneium was already frozen, whereas Sonic and Aptos remained active and are recommended for freezing. The temp check on Aave’s multichain strategy concluded on Dec. 5, 2025, with 923,400 votes in favor and under 1% against increasing the reserve factor on underperforming instances, shutting down the instances on zkSync, Metis and Soneium, and establishing a $2 million annual revenue floor for new instance deployment.
Scroll was then added to the affected protocols through an accelerated process in April, as LlamaRisk filed a direct-to-AIP proposal to freeze every Scroll reserve and raise selected reserve factors, describing the measure as completing Scroll’s deprecation after a rapid deterioration in network liquidity and Aave market activity. Aave also published an updated risk framework on June 9, covering asset, bridge, monitoring and chain risk and criteria for winding down reserves or deployments, and this month’s announcement indicated de facto adoption of those rules by the protocol.
Source: Stani Kulechov
Aave founder Stani Kulechov said in a Thursday post that this will also “reduce Aave’s economic and technical risk surface as part of the new Aave Risk Framework and Technical Asset Listing Framework.”
Still, this is not a reversal of Aave’s multichain expansion strategy, rather a strategic refocusing on select protocols. “Aave will continue applying continuous risk assessment for all assets across all deployments,” Kulechov said. The comments also follow Aave launching on Avalanche earlier this month.
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
Aave weighs closing 6 V3 blockchain markets, offboarding 50 low-use reserves
An Aave governance proposal would wind down the lending protocol’s V3 markets on six blockchains and retire dozens of low-use token listings, a cleanup covering $98.1 million in supplied assets and $15.6 million in debt.
Risk service provider LlamaRisk, working with other Aave service providers, recommended offboarding 50 low-use reserves and 21 matured Pendle principal token listings across 11 deployments. It also proposed retiring all 25 reserves on Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium and Aptos. The balances were measured on July 28.
An ARFC is a detailed proposal and precursor to an Aave Improvement Proposal; it is not, by itself, proof of a completed final onchain vote or execution.
Aptos exit follows recent launch
The proposed Aptos exit comes just 11 months after Aave launched its V3 market there, with available liquidity down 94% over six months and quarterly revenue below $1,000, according to LlamaRisk.
Every reserve on Scroll, zkSync, Metis and Soneium was already frozen, whereas Sonic and Aptos remained active and are recommended for freezing. The temp check on Aave’s multichain strategy concluded on Dec. 5, 2025, with 923,400 votes in favor and under 1% against increasing the reserve factor on underperforming instances, shutting down the instances on zkSync, Metis and Soneium, and establishing a $2 million annual revenue floor for new instance deployment.
Scroll was then added to the affected protocols through an accelerated process in April, as LlamaRisk filed a direct-to-AIP proposal to freeze every Scroll reserve and raise selected reserve factors, describing the measure as completing Scroll’s deprecation after a rapid deterioration in network liquidity and Aave market activity. Aave also published an updated risk framework on June 9, covering asset, bridge, monitoring and chain risk and criteria for winding down reserves or deployments, and this month’s announcement indicated de facto adoption of those rules by the protocol.
Source: Stani Kulechov
Aave founder Stani Kulechov said in a Thursday post that this will also “reduce Aave’s economic and technical risk surface as part of the new Aave Risk Framework and Technical Asset Listing Framework.”
Still, this is not a reversal of Aave’s multichain expansion strategy, rather a strategic refocusing on select protocols. “Aave will continue applying continuous risk assessment for all assets across all deployments,” Kulechov said. The comments also follow Aave launching on Avalanche earlier this month.
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
Risk service provider LlamaRisk, working with other Aave service providers, recommended offboarding 50 low-use reserves and 21 matured Pendle principal token listings across 11 deployments. It also proposed retiring all 25 reserves on Sonic, Scroll, zkSync, Metis, Soneium and Aptos. The balances were measured on July 28.
An ARFC is a detailed proposal and precursor to an Aave Improvement Proposal; it is not, by itself, proof of a completed final onchain vote or execution.
Aptos exit follows recent launch
The proposed Aptos exit comes just 11 months after Aave launched its V3 market there, with available liquidity down 94% over six months and quarterly revenue below $1,000, according to LlamaRisk.
Every reserve on Scroll, zkSync, Metis and Soneium was already frozen, whereas Sonic and Aptos remained active and are recommended for freezing. The temp check on Aave’s multichain strategy concluded on Dec. 5, 2025, with 923,400 votes in favor and under 1% against increasing the reserve factor on underperforming instances, shutting down the instances on zkSync, Metis and Soneium, and establishing a $2 million annual revenue floor for new instance deployment.
Scroll was then added to the affected protocols through an accelerated process in April, as LlamaRisk filed a direct-to-AIP proposal to freeze every Scroll reserve and raise selected reserve factors, describing the measure as completing Scroll’s deprecation after a rapid deterioration in network liquidity and Aave market activity. Aave also published an updated risk framework on June 9, covering asset, bridge, monitoring and chain risk and criteria for winding down reserves or deployments, and this month’s announcement indicated de facto adoption of those rules by the protocol.
Source: Stani Kulechov
Aave founder Stani Kulechov said in a Thursday post that this will also “reduce Aave’s economic and technical risk surface as part of the new Aave Risk Framework and Technical Asset Listing Framework.”
Still, this is not a reversal of Aave’s multichain expansion strategy, rather a strategic refocusing on select protocols. “Aave will continue applying continuous risk assessment for all assets across all deployments,” Kulechov said. The comments also follow Aave launching on Avalanche earlier this month.
Magazine: The real reason DeFi projects that survived 2022 crash are shutting down now
328
Article
RWA perpetual futures volume nears Bitcoin on Hyperliquid, BinancePerpetual futures tied to tokenized stocks and commodities generated nearly as much trading volume as Bitcoin perpetuals on two of the largest venues for the products over the past week, according to Talos.
Combined seven-day volume across tracked real-world asset (RWA) perps reached $61.7 billion, equal to 99.2% of Bitcoin perpetual volume on Hyperliquid and Binance, where most trading activity is concentrated, Talos told Cointelegraph in an email summary citing a data snapshot taken on Thursday.
Tokenized equity contracts accounted for 57.8% of the total, followed by commodities at 28.2%.
The value of onchain RWAs has grown to about $36.8 billion, excluding stablecoins, according to RWA.xyz. Crypto exchanges have also expanded their offerings beyond cryptocurrencies, increasingly listing tokenized stocks and commodities alongside digital assets.
Hyperliquid recorded $25.1 billion in RWA perpetual trading volume during the week of July 13 to July 19, exceeding the combined volume of all other perpetual categories on its platform.
Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a July 24 X post that growing RWA trading on Hyperliquid signals crypto markets moving “away from speculating on endogenous digital commodities.”
Growth continues into the new week
Early data for the current week suggests the trend is continuing. RWA perpetual trading volume has already reached $37.2 billion, exceeding Bitcoin perpetual volume by about 9%, according to Talos’ dashboard.
RWA perpetual futures volume as a percentage of Bitcoin perpetual futures volume on Hyperliquid and Binance. Source: Talos
Equity-linked contracts accounted for $22.8 billion of the total, followed by commodities at $9.1 billion and indexes at $4.2 billion. ETFs contributed about $338 million, while foreign exchange, pre-IPO and other RWA contracts made up the remainder.
Earlier in July, Pantera Capital said perpetual futures could become a dominant trading instrument beyond crypto, citing advantages such as 24/7 trading, the absence of contract expiries, simpler position management and continuous price discovery.
Hyperliquid’s growth has drawn attention from traditional finance. Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher, whose company owns the New York Stock Exchange, recently urged regulators to create a “level playing field” for 24/7 onchain perpetual futures, arguing that existing market structures should not prevent the development of blockchain-based trading.
Despite the growth, RWA perpetuals remain a relatively small segment of the broader crypto derivatives market. Talos’ data shows aggregate futures trading volume of about $821.4 billion over the past seven days, with tracked RWA perpetuals accounting for roughly 7.5% of the total.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
RWA perpetual futures volume nears Bitcoin on Hyperliquid, Binance
Perpetual futures tied to tokenized stocks and commodities generated nearly as much trading volume as Bitcoin perpetuals on two of the largest venues for the products over the past week, according to Talos.
Combined seven-day volume across tracked real-world asset (RWA) perps reached $61.7 billion, equal to 99.2% of Bitcoin perpetual volume on Hyperliquid and Binance, where most trading activity is concentrated, Talos told Cointelegraph in an email summary citing a data snapshot taken on Thursday.
Tokenized equity contracts accounted for 57.8% of the total, followed by commodities at 28.2%.
The value of onchain RWAs has grown to about $36.8 billion, excluding stablecoins, according to RWA.xyz. Crypto exchanges have also expanded their offerings beyond cryptocurrencies, increasingly listing tokenized stocks and commodities alongside digital assets.
Hyperliquid recorded $25.1 billion in RWA perpetual trading volume during the week of July 13 to July 19, exceeding the combined volume of all other perpetual categories on its platform.
Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a July 24 X post that growing RWA trading on Hyperliquid signals crypto markets moving “away from speculating on endogenous digital commodities.”
Growth continues into the new week
Early data for the current week suggests the trend is continuing. RWA perpetual trading volume has already reached $37.2 billion, exceeding Bitcoin perpetual volume by about 9%, according to Talos’ dashboard.
RWA perpetual futures volume as a percentage of Bitcoin perpetual futures volume on Hyperliquid and Binance. Source: Talos
Equity-linked contracts accounted for $22.8 billion of the total, followed by commodities at $9.1 billion and indexes at $4.2 billion. ETFs contributed about $338 million, while foreign exchange, pre-IPO and other RWA contracts made up the remainder.
Earlier in July, Pantera Capital said perpetual futures could become a dominant trading instrument beyond crypto, citing advantages such as 24/7 trading, the absence of contract expiries, simpler position management and continuous price discovery.
Hyperliquid’s growth has drawn attention from traditional finance. Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher, whose company owns the New York Stock Exchange, recently urged regulators to create a “level playing field” for 24/7 onchain perpetual futures, arguing that existing market structures should not prevent the development of blockchain-based trading.
Despite the growth, RWA perpetuals remain a relatively small segment of the broader crypto derivatives market. Talos’ data shows aggregate futures trading volume of about $821.4 billion over the past seven days, with tracked RWA perpetuals accounting for roughly 7.5% of the total.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
Combined seven-day volume across tracked real-world asset (RWA) perps reached $61.7 billion, equal to 99.2% of Bitcoin perpetual volume on Hyperliquid and Binance, where most trading activity is concentrated, Talos told Cointelegraph in an email summary citing a data snapshot taken on Thursday.
Tokenized equity contracts accounted for 57.8% of the total, followed by commodities at 28.2%.
The value of onchain RWAs has grown to about $36.8 billion, excluding stablecoins, according to RWA.xyz. Crypto exchanges have also expanded their offerings beyond cryptocurrencies, increasingly listing tokenized stocks and commodities alongside digital assets.
Hyperliquid recorded $25.1 billion in RWA perpetual trading volume during the week of July 13 to July 19, exceeding the combined volume of all other perpetual categories on its platform.
Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said in a July 24 X post that growing RWA trading on Hyperliquid signals crypto markets moving “away from speculating on endogenous digital commodities.”
Growth continues into the new week
Early data for the current week suggests the trend is continuing. RWA perpetual trading volume has already reached $37.2 billion, exceeding Bitcoin perpetual volume by about 9%, according to Talos’ dashboard.
RWA perpetual futures volume as a percentage of Bitcoin perpetual futures volume on Hyperliquid and Binance. Source: Talos
Equity-linked contracts accounted for $22.8 billion of the total, followed by commodities at $9.1 billion and indexes at $4.2 billion. ETFs contributed about $338 million, while foreign exchange, pre-IPO and other RWA contracts made up the remainder.
Earlier in July, Pantera Capital said perpetual futures could become a dominant trading instrument beyond crypto, citing advantages such as 24/7 trading, the absence of contract expiries, simpler position management and continuous price discovery.
Hyperliquid’s growth has drawn attention from traditional finance. Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher, whose company owns the New York Stock Exchange, recently urged regulators to create a “level playing field” for 24/7 onchain perpetual futures, arguing that existing market structures should not prevent the development of blockchain-based trading.
Despite the growth, RWA perpetuals remain a relatively small segment of the broader crypto derivatives market. Talos’ data shows aggregate futures trading volume of about $821.4 billion over the past seven days, with tracked RWA perpetuals accounting for roughly 7.5% of the total.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
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Bitcoin ETFs post $233M inflows, pushing week back into the greenUS spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their strongest daily inflows in more than three weeks on Thursday, attracting $233.1 million.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the gains with $183.4 million in net inflows, accounting for 78.7% of the day’s total, according to SoSoValue data. Bitwise’s BITB attracted $20.7 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $15.5 million, while several other funds posted smaller inflows.
That flips Bitcoin ETFs into positive territory for the week, leaving them with $203.84 million in net inflows. Barring a net outflow above that value on Friday, the funds could close their fourth straight week in the green.
July is also $437.8 million in the green after Thursday’s inflows and on pace to snap a two-month streak of multibillion-dollar outflows.
Bitcoin traded at $64,338 at the time of writing, down 1.8% over the past week, according to CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs logged $13.3 million in net inflows on Thursday. The funds recorded losses in just five trading sessions throughout July after posting net inflows on only four trading days in June.
Ether traded at $1,905 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin ETFs post $233M inflows, pushing week back into the green
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their strongest daily inflows in more than three weeks on Thursday, attracting $233.1 million.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the gains with $183.4 million in net inflows, accounting for 78.7% of the day’s total, according to SoSoValue data. Bitwise’s BITB attracted $20.7 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $15.5 million, while several other funds posted smaller inflows.
That flips Bitcoin ETFs into positive territory for the week, leaving them with $203.84 million in net inflows. Barring a net outflow above that value on Friday, the funds could close their fourth straight week in the green.
July is also $437.8 million in the green after Thursday’s inflows and on pace to snap a two-month streak of multibillion-dollar outflows.
Bitcoin traded at $64,338 at the time of writing, down 1.8% over the past week, according to CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs logged $13.3 million in net inflows on Thursday. The funds recorded losses in just five trading sessions throughout July after posting net inflows on only four trading days in June.
Ether traded at $1,905 at the time of writing.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the gains with $183.4 million in net inflows, accounting for 78.7% of the day’s total, according to SoSoValue data. Bitwise’s BITB attracted $20.7 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $15.5 million, while several other funds posted smaller inflows.
That flips Bitcoin ETFs into positive territory for the week, leaving them with $203.84 million in net inflows. Barring a net outflow above that value on Friday, the funds could close their fourth straight week in the green.
July is also $437.8 million in the green after Thursday’s inflows and on pace to snap a two-month streak of multibillion-dollar outflows.
Bitcoin traded at $64,338 at the time of writing, down 1.8% over the past week, according to CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs logged $13.3 million in net inflows on Thursday. The funds recorded losses in just five trading sessions throughout July after posting net inflows on only four trading days in June.
Ether traded at $1,905 at the time of writing.
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Article
Crypto’s next altseason may have fewer winners: WintermuteCrypto’s next altcoin season may produce fewer winners as institutional investors concentrate their activity in a narrower group of digital assets, according to crypto market maker Wintermute.
In its over-the-counter (OTC) flow report for the first half of 2026, Wintermute said institutional counterparties generated 72% of spot flow across all tokens on its OTC desk, the highest share on record. That was up from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of last year.
With institutional activity concentrated in fewer tokens and fading faster after price surges, the findings suggest future altcoin rallies could become narrower and more selective. Wintermute said liquidity was concentrating in the assets institutions favored while activity across the market’s “long tail” weakened.
Between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by Wintermute’s institutional counterparties grew by just 24%, compared with 76% among retail clients. The firm also found that institutional activity following a surge in a token’s price and volume faded after roughly one day. In contrast, retail activity typically remained elevated for about three days.
Percentage of institutional spot OTC flow. Source: Wintermute
Altcoin capital was already becoming more concentrated
Wintermute’s findings add proprietary OTC data to signs that capital has been clustering around a smaller group of altcoins across the wider market.
On June 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller crypto assets had “basically disappeared.” CryptoQuant data showed trading volume in Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pairs near its weakest level since 2021.
Meanwhile, the 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about 80.5% of the non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market’s capitalization.
Kaiko identified a similar concentration in exchange trading. In July 2025, the data provider said that the ten largest altcoins accounted for 63% of altcoin trading volume, up from about 50% several months earlier, as activity in smaller tokens weakened.
DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev also argued that broad altcoin rallies were giving way to selective sector moves. On March 15, Grachev said too many tokens were competing for limited capital, while institutional investors remained focused on Bitcoin, Ether and tokenized real-world assets.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
Crypto’s next altseason may have fewer winners: Wintermute
Crypto’s next altcoin season may produce fewer winners as institutional investors concentrate their activity in a narrower group of digital assets, according to crypto market maker Wintermute.
In its over-the-counter (OTC) flow report for the first half of 2026, Wintermute said institutional counterparties generated 72% of spot flow across all tokens on its OTC desk, the highest share on record. That was up from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of last year.
With institutional activity concentrated in fewer tokens and fading faster after price surges, the findings suggest future altcoin rallies could become narrower and more selective. Wintermute said liquidity was concentrating in the assets institutions favored while activity across the market’s “long tail” weakened.
Between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by Wintermute’s institutional counterparties grew by just 24%, compared with 76% among retail clients. The firm also found that institutional activity following a surge in a token’s price and volume faded after roughly one day. In contrast, retail activity typically remained elevated for about three days.
Percentage of institutional spot OTC flow. Source: Wintermute
Altcoin capital was already becoming more concentrated
Wintermute’s findings add proprietary OTC data to signs that capital has been clustering around a smaller group of altcoins across the wider market.
On June 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller crypto assets had “basically disappeared.” CryptoQuant data showed trading volume in Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pairs near its weakest level since 2021.
Meanwhile, the 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about 80.5% of the non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market’s capitalization.
Kaiko identified a similar concentration in exchange trading. In July 2025, the data provider said that the ten largest altcoins accounted for 63% of altcoin trading volume, up from about 50% several months earlier, as activity in smaller tokens weakened.
DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev also argued that broad altcoin rallies were giving way to selective sector moves. On March 15, Grachev said too many tokens were competing for limited capital, while institutional investors remained focused on Bitcoin, Ether and tokenized real-world assets.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
In its over-the-counter (OTC) flow report for the first half of 2026, Wintermute said institutional counterparties generated 72% of spot flow across all tokens on its OTC desk, the highest share on record. That was up from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of last year.
With institutional activity concentrated in fewer tokens and fading faster after price surges, the findings suggest future altcoin rallies could become narrower and more selective. Wintermute said liquidity was concentrating in the assets institutions favored while activity across the market’s “long tail” weakened.
Between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by Wintermute’s institutional counterparties grew by just 24%, compared with 76% among retail clients. The firm also found that institutional activity following a surge in a token’s price and volume faded after roughly one day. In contrast, retail activity typically remained elevated for about three days.
Percentage of institutional spot OTC flow. Source: Wintermute
Altcoin capital was already becoming more concentrated
Wintermute’s findings add proprietary OTC data to signs that capital has been clustering around a smaller group of altcoins across the wider market.
On June 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller crypto assets had “basically disappeared.” CryptoQuant data showed trading volume in Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pairs near its weakest level since 2021.
Meanwhile, the 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about 80.5% of the non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market’s capitalization.
Kaiko identified a similar concentration in exchange trading. In July 2025, the data provider said that the ten largest altcoins accounted for 63% of altcoin trading volume, up from about 50% several months earlier, as activity in smaller tokens weakened.
DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev also argued that broad altcoin rallies were giving way to selective sector moves. On March 15, Grachev said too many tokens were competing for limited capital, while institutional investors remained focused on Bitcoin, Ether and tokenized real-world assets.
Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures
244
Coldcard issues Mk3 warning as experts examine $38M Bitcoin wallet drainCanadian Bitcoin hardware maker Coinkite has warned users of its Coldcard Mk3 signing device to move funds from wallets whose seed phrases were generated on affected firmware.
On Thursday, Coinkite said seeds created on an Mk3 running firmware version 4.0.1, released in March 2021, or any later Mk3 version may put funds at risk. The issue extends through version 5.0.3, the final firmware supporting the Mk3, while the Mk4, Q and Mk5 are not affected, according to the company’s early analysis.
The warning comes as Bitcoin security specialists examine an unexplained, coordinated sweep involving 594.48 BTC from single-signature addresses. However, no definitive public evidence has established that the Mk3 issue caused those transfers.
“Out of an abundance of caution,” Coinkite urged affected users to generate a new seed on an unaffected device, verify its backup and receive address, send a small test transaction and only then move the remaining funds. The company said its investigation is ongoing and promised a formal technical review.
Coinkite said its early analysis indicates that affected seeds used with a BIP-39 passphrase face minimal risk, stressing that this refers to a passphrase rather than the Coldcard PIN.
Experts examine 594 BTC sweep
The sweep attracted attention after a Reddit user said funds had been drained from a wallet whose seed was generated on a Coldcard Mk3 bought in May 2021.
The user said the seed was later restored onto a Coldcard Mk4 in January 2026, meaning it had subsequently been entered into a second device. The account is self-reported and does not establish a connection between Coldcard and the broader sweep.
In a preliminary analysis posted on Friday, AnchorWatch CEO and co-founder Rob Hamilton said that 1,324 unspent transaction outputs were swept across 500 transactions within a three-block window, moving 594.48 BTC.
At the time of writing, the 594.48 BTC was worth approximately $38.3 million, based on a Bitcoin price of $64,364.07, according to CoinGecko.
Hamilton said all the addresses involved were single-signature and that 562 BTC was later consolidated into another address. “At a glance, this looks like there was flawed entropy in wallet generation somewhere along the way,” he wrote.
Separately, Wizardsardine CEO Kevin Loaec said his current hypothesis is that a low-entropy random-number generator, potentially in a software library, secure element or particular device batch or firmware version, produced wallet seeds with insufficient randomness.
He suggested that an attacker who knew of the flaw may have used an AI-generated script to brute-force affected wallets, but searched only a limited range of BIP-84 derivation paths. That could explain why the sweep appears concentrated in native SegWit addresses and why some wallets were only partially drained, though Loaec stressed that the theory remains unconfirmed.
Loaec warned that, if his hypothesis is correct, wallets that were only partially drained may remain at risk of further theft. He added that funds held in other address types could also be exposed if the attacker expands the scan to include them.
Magazine: Inside the ‘fake police raid’ that forced a $1M Bitcoin transfer
Coldcard issues Mk3 warning as experts examine $38M Bitcoin wallet drain
Canadian Bitcoin hardware maker Coinkite has warned users of its Coldcard Mk3 signing device to move funds from wallets whose seed phrases were generated on affected firmware.
On Thursday, Coinkite said seeds created on an Mk3 running firmware version 4.0.1, released in March 2021, or any later Mk3 version may put funds at risk. The issue extends through version 5.0.3, the final firmware supporting the Mk3, while the Mk4, Q and Mk5 are not affected, according to the company’s early analysis.
The warning comes as Bitcoin security specialists examine an unexplained, coordinated sweep involving 594.48 BTC from single-signature addresses. However, no definitive public evidence has established that the Mk3 issue caused those transfers.
“Out of an abundance of caution,” Coinkite urged affected users to generate a new seed on an unaffected device, verify its backup and receive address, send a small test transaction and only then move the remaining funds. The company said its investigation is ongoing and promised a formal technical review.
Coinkite said its early analysis indicates that affected seeds used with a BIP-39 passphrase face minimal risk, stressing that this refers to a passphrase rather than the Coldcard PIN.
Experts examine 594 BTC sweep
The sweep attracted attention after a Reddit user said funds had been drained from a wallet whose seed was generated on a Coldcard Mk3 bought in May 2021.
The user said the seed was later restored onto a Coldcard Mk4 in January 2026, meaning it had subsequently been entered into a second device. The account is self-reported and does not establish a connection between Coldcard and the broader sweep.
In a preliminary analysis posted on Friday, AnchorWatch CEO and co-founder Rob Hamilton said that 1,324 unspent transaction outputs were swept across 500 transactions within a three-block window, moving 594.48 BTC.
At the time of writing, the 594.48 BTC was worth approximately $38.3 million, based on a Bitcoin price of $64,364.07, according to CoinGecko.
Hamilton said all the addresses involved were single-signature and that 562 BTC was later consolidated into another address. “At a glance, this looks like there was flawed entropy in wallet generation somewhere along the way,” he wrote.
Separately, Wizardsardine CEO Kevin Loaec said his current hypothesis is that a low-entropy random-number generator, potentially in a software library, secure element or particular device batch or firmware version, produced wallet seeds with insufficient randomness.
He suggested that an attacker who knew of the flaw may have used an AI-generated script to brute-force affected wallets, but searched only a limited range of BIP-84 derivation paths. That could explain why the sweep appears concentrated in native SegWit addresses and why some wallets were only partially drained, though Loaec stressed that the theory remains unconfirmed.
Loaec warned that, if his hypothesis is correct, wallets that were only partially drained may remain at risk of further theft. He added that funds held in other address types could also be exposed if the attacker expands the scan to include them.
Magazine: Inside the ‘fake police raid’ that forced a $1M Bitcoin transfer
On Thursday, Coinkite said seeds created on an Mk3 running firmware version 4.0.1, released in March 2021, or any later Mk3 version may put funds at risk. The issue extends through version 5.0.3, the final firmware supporting the Mk3, while the Mk4, Q and Mk5 are not affected, according to the company’s early analysis.
The warning comes as Bitcoin security specialists examine an unexplained, coordinated sweep involving 594.48 BTC from single-signature addresses. However, no definitive public evidence has established that the Mk3 issue caused those transfers.
“Out of an abundance of caution,” Coinkite urged affected users to generate a new seed on an unaffected device, verify its backup and receive address, send a small test transaction and only then move the remaining funds. The company said its investigation is ongoing and promised a formal technical review.
Coinkite said its early analysis indicates that affected seeds used with a BIP-39 passphrase face minimal risk, stressing that this refers to a passphrase rather than the Coldcard PIN.
Experts examine 594 BTC sweep
The sweep attracted attention after a Reddit user said funds had been drained from a wallet whose seed was generated on a Coldcard Mk3 bought in May 2021.
The user said the seed was later restored onto a Coldcard Mk4 in January 2026, meaning it had subsequently been entered into a second device. The account is self-reported and does not establish a connection between Coldcard and the broader sweep.
In a preliminary analysis posted on Friday, AnchorWatch CEO and co-founder Rob Hamilton said that 1,324 unspent transaction outputs were swept across 500 transactions within a three-block window, moving 594.48 BTC.
At the time of writing, the 594.48 BTC was worth approximately $38.3 million, based on a Bitcoin price of $64,364.07, according to CoinGecko.
Hamilton said all the addresses involved were single-signature and that 562 BTC was later consolidated into another address. “At a glance, this looks like there was flawed entropy in wallet generation somewhere along the way,” he wrote.
Separately, Wizardsardine CEO Kevin Loaec said his current hypothesis is that a low-entropy random-number generator, potentially in a software library, secure element or particular device batch or firmware version, produced wallet seeds with insufficient randomness.
He suggested that an attacker who knew of the flaw may have used an AI-generated script to brute-force affected wallets, but searched only a limited range of BIP-84 derivation paths. That could explain why the sweep appears concentrated in native SegWit addresses and why some wallets were only partially drained, though Loaec stressed that the theory remains unconfirmed.
Loaec warned that, if his hypothesis is correct, wallets that were only partially drained may remain at risk of further theft. He added that funds held in other address types could also be exposed if the attacker expands the scan to include them.
Magazine: Inside the ‘fake police raid’ that forced a $1M Bitcoin transfer
1
173
Bhutan’s Gelephu taps 3iQ to manage part of Bitcoin treasuryBhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) has appointed Canadian digital-asset manager 3iQ to manage a mandate backed by part of its Bitcoin treasury as the special administrative region develops a digital-asset investment hub.
Under the partnership, 3iQ will manage an undisclosed portion of the Bitcoin allocated to support Gelephu’s development. The company will also establish a long-term presence in the city, invest in local talent and provide training and knowledge transfer.
In December 2025, Bhutan announced that up to 10,000 Bitcoin from the country’s national holdings would be allocated to support the GMC.
The latest agreement represents the next phase of the plan. However, neither party disclosed the actual amount placed under management, the custody arrangements, or whether the mandate permits lending, derivatives and other yield-generation strategies.
3iQ CEO Pascal St-Jean said the firm would bring institutional discipline to the mandate and help put Bhutan’s capital to work “responsibly, transparently and for the long term.”
Gelephu board director Jigdrel Singay described 3iQ as one of the city’s founding institutional partners. The two organizations said further milestones would be announced as Gelephu works to establish itself as a digital offshore financial center focused on innovation, sustainability and institutional asset management.
Bhutan’s Gelephu taps 3iQ to manage part of Bitcoin treasury
Bhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) has appointed Canadian digital-asset manager 3iQ to manage a mandate backed by part of its Bitcoin treasury as the special administrative region develops a digital-asset investment hub.
Under the partnership, 3iQ will manage an undisclosed portion of the Bitcoin allocated to support Gelephu’s development. The company will also establish a long-term presence in the city, invest in local talent and provide training and knowledge transfer.
In December 2025, Bhutan announced that up to 10,000 Bitcoin from the country’s national holdings would be allocated to support the GMC.
The latest agreement represents the next phase of the plan. However, neither party disclosed the actual amount placed under management, the custody arrangements, or whether the mandate permits lending, derivatives and other yield-generation strategies.
3iQ CEO Pascal St-Jean said the firm would bring institutional discipline to the mandate and help put Bhutan’s capital to work “responsibly, transparently and for the long term.”
Gelephu board director Jigdrel Singay described 3iQ as one of the city’s founding institutional partners. The two organizations said further milestones would be announced as Gelephu works to establish itself as a digital offshore financial center focused on innovation, sustainability and institutional asset management.
Under the partnership, 3iQ will manage an undisclosed portion of the Bitcoin allocated to support Gelephu’s development. The company will also establish a long-term presence in the city, invest in local talent and provide training and knowledge transfer.
In December 2025, Bhutan announced that up to 10,000 Bitcoin from the country’s national holdings would be allocated to support the GMC.
The latest agreement represents the next phase of the plan. However, neither party disclosed the actual amount placed under management, the custody arrangements, or whether the mandate permits lending, derivatives and other yield-generation strategies.
3iQ CEO Pascal St-Jean said the firm would bring institutional discipline to the mandate and help put Bhutan’s capital to work “responsibly, transparently and for the long term.”
Gelephu board director Jigdrel Singay described 3iQ as one of the city’s founding institutional partners. The two organizations said further milestones would be announced as Gelephu works to establish itself as a digital offshore financial center focused on innovation, sustainability and institutional asset management.
1
150
US Senators sent revised ethics rules to White House for CLARITY Act: ReportTwo US senators on opposite sides of the political aisle have reportedly sent revised ethics guidelines to the White House as part of discussions over a cryptocurrency market structure bill in Congress.
According to a Thursday PunchBowl report, Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Ruben Gallego submitted a counteroffer to the Trump administration that included a change to ethics provisions in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The changes would reportedly address concerns from many lawmakers in the first draft by allowing state authorities to enforce a ban on federal officials issuing or sponsoring tokens rather than the US Attorney General.
Gallego, a Democrat, previously said that provisions around ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity “must be strengthened” and he would continue to work with Republicans to get the bill “over the finish line.” Cointelegraph reached out to Gallego’s and Tillis’ teams for clarification on the proposed changes but did not receive an immediate response.
The proposed revisions to the crypto bill could bring in support from Senate Democrats, many of whom have publicly said they will not vote for the CLARITY Act “if it protects [US President Donald] Trump’s dominance over an industry that he will have more control to regulate.” Republicans currently have an effective 52-47 majority in the Senate with Senator Mitch McConnell absent due to medical reasons, and will need support from Democrats to meet the 60-vote threshold for the bill to pass.
US Senators sent revised ethics rules to White House for CLARITY Act: Report
Two US senators on opposite sides of the political aisle have reportedly sent revised ethics guidelines to the White House as part of discussions over a cryptocurrency market structure bill in Congress.
According to a Thursday PunchBowl report, Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Ruben Gallego submitted a counteroffer to the Trump administration that included a change to ethics provisions in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The changes would reportedly address concerns from many lawmakers in the first draft by allowing state authorities to enforce a ban on federal officials issuing or sponsoring tokens rather than the US Attorney General.
Gallego, a Democrat, previously said that provisions around ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity “must be strengthened” and he would continue to work with Republicans to get the bill “over the finish line.” Cointelegraph reached out to Gallego’s and Tillis’ teams for clarification on the proposed changes but did not receive an immediate response.
The proposed revisions to the crypto bill could bring in support from Senate Democrats, many of whom have publicly said they will not vote for the CLARITY Act “if it protects [US President Donald] Trump’s dominance over an industry that he will have more control to regulate.” Republicans currently have an effective 52-47 majority in the Senate with Senator Mitch McConnell absent due to medical reasons, and will need support from Democrats to meet the 60-vote threshold for the bill to pass.
According to a Thursday PunchBowl report, Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Ruben Gallego submitted a counteroffer to the Trump administration that included a change to ethics provisions in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. The changes would reportedly address concerns from many lawmakers in the first draft by allowing state authorities to enforce a ban on federal officials issuing or sponsoring tokens rather than the US Attorney General.
Gallego, a Democrat, previously said that provisions around ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity “must be strengthened” and he would continue to work with Republicans to get the bill “over the finish line.” Cointelegraph reached out to Gallego’s and Tillis’ teams for clarification on the proposed changes but did not receive an immediate response.
The proposed revisions to the crypto bill could bring in support from Senate Democrats, many of whom have publicly said they will not vote for the CLARITY Act “if it protects [US President Donald] Trump’s dominance over an industry that he will have more control to regulate.” Republicans currently have an effective 52-47 majority in the Senate with Senator Mitch McConnell absent due to medical reasons, and will need support from Democrats to meet the 60-vote threshold for the bill to pass.
265
Strategy posts $8.2B Q2 loss as Bitcoin slump drives unrealized lossesStrategy reported an $8.22 billion second-quarter net loss, driven primarily by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings as the cryptocurrency’s price declined during the quarter.
As of July 26, Strategy held 843,775 Bitcoin (BTC), a 25% increase since the beginning of the year despite selling approximately $218.4 million worth of Bitcoin under its newly established BTC monetization program. The company said the proceeds were used to help fund a portion of its preferred stock dividend obligations.
Strategy also said it has built a $3.75 billion US dollar reserve, enough to cover more than two years of preferred dividend payments and interest obligations. The company recently repurchased $25 million of its STRC preferred shares at a discount to par and said it intends to continue buying the securities while they trade below $100.
Bitcoin fell about 14% during the second quarter, from around $68,000 at the start of April to about $58,600 by the end of June, according to CoinGeck data. On Thursday afternoon, it was trading around $64,700.
Strategy (MSTR) shares finished the regular trading session on Thursday up 4.7% before slipping modestly in after-hours trading following the earnings report, per Yahoo Finance data.
Strategy posts $8.2B Q2 loss as Bitcoin slump drives unrealized losses
Strategy reported an $8.22 billion second-quarter net loss, driven primarily by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings as the cryptocurrency’s price declined during the quarter.
As of July 26, Strategy held 843,775 Bitcoin (BTC), a 25% increase since the beginning of the year despite selling approximately $218.4 million worth of Bitcoin under its newly established BTC monetization program. The company said the proceeds were used to help fund a portion of its preferred stock dividend obligations.
Strategy also said it has built a $3.75 billion US dollar reserve, enough to cover more than two years of preferred dividend payments and interest obligations. The company recently repurchased $25 million of its STRC preferred shares at a discount to par and said it intends to continue buying the securities while they trade below $100.
Bitcoin fell about 14% during the second quarter, from around $68,000 at the start of April to about $58,600 by the end of June, according to CoinGeck data. On Thursday afternoon, it was trading around $64,700.
Strategy (MSTR) shares finished the regular trading session on Thursday up 4.7% before slipping modestly in after-hours trading following the earnings report, per Yahoo Finance data.
As of July 26, Strategy held 843,775 Bitcoin (BTC), a 25% increase since the beginning of the year despite selling approximately $218.4 million worth of Bitcoin under its newly established BTC monetization program. The company said the proceeds were used to help fund a portion of its preferred stock dividend obligations.
Strategy also said it has built a $3.75 billion US dollar reserve, enough to cover more than two years of preferred dividend payments and interest obligations. The company recently repurchased $25 million of its STRC preferred shares at a discount to par and said it intends to continue buying the securities while they trade below $100.
Bitcoin fell about 14% during the second quarter, from around $68,000 at the start of April to about $58,600 by the end of June, according to CoinGeck data. On Thursday afternoon, it was trading around $64,700.
Strategy (MSTR) shares finished the regular trading session on Thursday up 4.7% before slipping modestly in after-hours trading following the earnings report, per Yahoo Finance data.
111
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