ZEC_WindSon

Raise $ZEC target price; expecting by year-end $5,000–6,000, which means total market cap/free-float market cap is about $10 billion

We’re bullish on the $TAO trend—it’s only just starting. I’m just making a rough target price by “guessing”: around $1,000 by year-end. The reason is simple: the AI sector needs a benchmark similar to a privacy leader like ZCassh, and Bittensor, based on current outlook, seems to have the most potential.

Privacy is Crypto's last narrative; it looks like $ZEC could reach 3,000 before the end of the year

A friend asked me a question: even though privacy is important, what value can $ZEC bring?

I said ZCash is like the value model of $BTC . Once it matures, it will naturally have payment use cases. Right now, we’re in the narrative phase; it’s still early days.

But I can’t answer one question: if Bitcoin's price keeps tanking, will ZCash, which also relies on storytelling and consensus to push its price up, still find buyers?

I’ve been thinking there will still be buyers because there’s a ton of dirty and gray money on-chain looking to pool for appreciation: they won’t buy US stocks or stablecoins because they’re easily flagged. In the past, they had to huddle BTC or even ETH, but now those coins have hit their ceiling. They will definitely seek out a new coin to huddle, one that allows for hidden transactions, like $ZEC .

History shows that great protocols are forged through existential crises. Ethereum survived The DAO hack and the controversial hard fork that followed. Bitcoin itself survived the 2010 value-overflow bug, when 184 billion BTC were accidentally created and Satoshi coordinated an emergency patch and chain reorganization to reject the invalid inflation transaction.

These events did not kill ETH or BTC. They proved that serious networks can coordinate under pressure, defend their monetary integrity, and emerge stronger.

That is why I see the Zcash Orchard incident not as the end, but as a defining trial. If $ZEC can continually respond with transparency, stronger verification, and renewed trust, this may be the beginning of its real journey toward $100,000.

$ZEC has a whopping 5% price gap on Coinbase and Binance, and I've been scratching my head about it for the past couple of days.

Zcash has been moving some serious volume around the $600 mark, but unlike the surge after last October 11, it just hasn't broken out like we expected.

Honestly, I'm a bit puzzled. Even though I'm bullish in the long run and really want to stack more ZEC, it feels like there's some unseen force holding Zcash back despite the heavy buying pressure. I just can't put my finger on it.

One theory is that a market maker or whale scooped up tens of thousands of ZEC on Coinbase to pump the price and create the illusion that Wall Street big shots are loading up.

This would lure in more long liquidity in the futures market — meaning they'd secure enough counterparties — while at the same time, they could be shorting hundreds of thousands of ZEC on Binance.

This kind of situation is huge. From what I've seen, it usually leads to either a massive pump or a major dump. Right now, I'm leaning towards a bullish scenario. Such occurrences are rare; it seems there's an issue with the cross-exchange market makers. Coinbase is way above market price with a hefty premium, likely due to compliant funds making huge buys, temporarily shorting Coinbase. The on-chain market makers need time for cross-exchange transfers.

Time to add to my position. I'm taking a gamble here; I believe ZEC is heading to four figures. Those without conviction can’t gauge the direction. Just look at last year, on 10.11, the price action of BTC and ZEC tells you everything. The risk is a crash, but the opportunity also lies within that crash. However, there’s another possibility: regardless of BTC's movements, ZEC might just shoot up. The only risk is missing out.

Based on my years of trading experience, this kind of rare price divergence usually leads to either a massive pump or a sharp dump. Personally, I’m leaning bullish from here.

If I were still young, like I was back in 2020, I’d make a do-or-die bet here: go heavily long with 10x leverage, and once the price doubles, I’d deleverage, rotate into spot, and go all in.

But I’m older now. Time spares no one. I just can’t bring my risk appetite back up anymore.

I’m worried that a potential Bitcoin crash could drag ZEC down violently, similar to what happened on October 11 last year. Even though it dropped from the 200s to 180 and then ripped all the way to 750, I’m old now. I no longer have that sharp, all-in courage I had when I was young.

Sometimes you have to take a bet.

When you’re young and don’t have much capital, your only shot is to go against the trend, catch the dip, and go heavy.

Miracles come from concentrated bets.

【Damn it, go all in and let it be!】

As Trump undermines the independence of the Federal Reserve, the market will price this in:
1. Weaker dollar (lower credit)
2. U.S. Treasury bond yields will not decrease but may flatten or even rise (risk compensation)
3. Strong earnings reports from U.S. stocks lead to rising stock prices (weak dollar boosts sales profits)
4. Stronger gold (hedging against dollar uncertainty)
5. Increased risk appetite leads to a surge in cryptocurrencies (small market cap means greater elasticity)

It is recommended to invest in smart contract public chain coins that have fundamental and application scenario support, such as ETH, SOL, BNB, HYPE, TRX. In Q4, there will be a significant positive development with the passage of the U.S. Clarify Act.

Bull Market Peak Strategy for Public Chain ETFs: If you're afraid of heights but don't want to miss the big acceleration, if you don't know which chain can dominate the landscape, but you believe that humanity will ultimately reside in the ocean of smart contract public chains, then please allocate the top 20 public chain coins according to market capitalization to create your own ETF.

ETH : SOL : BNB : HYPE : TRX = 5 : 1 : 1 : 0.3 : 0.15

Payments are just one application scenario of public chains. The combined market capitalization of these 5 coins is 800 billion. By the end of the year, it must exceed the 1.6 trillion of Visa + Master + Discover + AMEX + JCB + Paypal, and it can still double. I think it will be even more because the capabilities of public chains far exceed those of these payment networks.

Coins like BTC and DOGE that are not smart contract coins are not public chains; they are MEME coins. There is no need to allocate coins with a market cap lower than the top 20, just like the Nasdaq index ETF only allocates the top 100. Since there are only these five chains, it doesn't matter which one takes off. Adults make no choices! You need them all.

This way, you will hold on to it, and you will earn money because of your understanding.

What the market should be concerned about is the bottoming rebound of the dollar index. If the dollar index returns to around 104, will there be a massacre for the bulls? The continuous rise of US stocks may offset some adverse factors. If Trump wants to fire Powell, Bitcoin will soar, but it is unlikely to happen. Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates this year is increasing, which is a positive for US stocks and the dollar, but negative for Crypto...

Pensions and real estate mortgages will not enter the market this year due to cumbersome compliance processes; at least it will take another year. When companies start buying coins, when the purchasing channels are no longer an obstacle, and when ETF inflows are decreasing, who hasn't entered the market? Who will be the last buyer?

The derivatives in the traditional financial market are becoming richer and larger, with more carry trades, and even bulls themselves are bears, further lowering market volatility. The rise is getting slower, does this mean that the volatility charm of Bitcoin itself, which corresponds to the wealth effect, is becoming smaller? The market will pursue ETH and other Altcoins; if fewer people buy, isn't Bitcoin being low-volatility killed by itself? Of course, the ceiling for other coins is much lower than that of Bitcoin, just like ETH replicated MicroStrategy but didn't let Ethereum break new highs, while Solana's attempt to replicate led to chaos...

Can US stocks have a long bull market with low volatility, but Bitcoin, which doesn't generate free cash flow, can it?

You all say Bitcoin is gold, but the poor De Gaulle back in the day moved gold back to France from the US with warships when the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and it didn't guide France to restore its glory...

During the gold standard period, were there no financial crises like the South Sea Bubble, the Tulip Bubble, or the Mississippi Bubble? Was the Great Depression caused by abandoning the gold standard? If the gold standard was really good, why did countries around the world abandon it? Did you discover that this treasure should return to the Bitcoin standard?

Do you use AI? If you use it every day, isn't this what Buffett said about investment products in the supermarket at your doorstep? If you believe in the tangible Fourth Industrial Revolution, why not buy Nvidia, why not buy the Nasdaq? Those who fear heights are all unfortunate people... American debt can be resolved not only by reserving Bitcoin but also through productivity reform, while the value of blockchain is not in speculation or value storage, but in its actual utility.

Why does the current situation resemble that of October 2020? At that time, Huobi's Li Lin and OKX's Xu Mingxing were taken away by the police, and OKX directly suspended withdrawals, causing panic in the market. Many people thought a crash was imminent, but the price of Bitcoin not only didn't drop but remained rock solid. There was also strong institutional support—Grayscale made significant purchases of BTC during that time and went public on the US stock market.

Now it's strikingly similar: Bitcoin whales have transferred 80,000 BTC (worth tens of billions of dollars) to Galaxy Digital over the past four days. This is not a sell-off but a signal of institutional accumulation, similar to Grayscale's operations back then. Even more explosive is that the $9 trillion 401k retirement savings in the US are investing in Bitcoin, alongside $13 trillion in mortgage-backed real estate supporting Bitcoin!

Imagine if 1% of the over $200 trillion market flows into Bitcoin, what kind of momentum it would create?

These are all nuclear-level positives!
Is the market completely unresponsive?
It resembles the closure of OKX for deposits and withdrawals in October 2020 + the launch of Grayscale Fund.
Currently, this is a huge mispricing!
Around 120,000, 330,000 Bitcoins have changed hands; I strongly feel that 120,000 will be the bottom of the next bear market, and from now on, it is very likely to soar to 200,000!

🚀From June 19 to July 12, 2024, the German government sold 50,000 BTC. The price of Bitcoin hit the bottom on July 4, after 2/3 of the sales. This time, 40,000 of the 80,000 BTC fossils have been sold, and Bitcoin has only dropped a few thousand dollars. If you don't buy at the bottom during the panic of ancient giant whales offloading, are you really going to wait for me to sell before you take over?
🔗Monitoring link: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/dd59af4d-5575-4b38-9171-15a6775b8ac8

Bitcoin has a 20% peak decay law over the past 10 years

From 2015 to 2017, Bitcoin rose from 200 to 20,000, 100 times
From 2018 to 2021, Bitcoin rose from 3,300 to 69,000, 20 times
From 2022 to 2024, Bitcoin rose from 18,000 to 74,000, 4 times
Each round of high and low point multiples is about 20% of the previous one

Until 2025, Bitcoin breaks the 20% curse, the pricing model paradigm shifts from risk assets to digital gold, and the future becomes the ultimate collateral

Our journey is to the stars and the sea $