ThyLaw

Clearing up some Coinbase FUD on $ASI

Many still don’t understand that Fet “IS” ASI. It is just a name change. Coinbase have announced they will not auto convert consumer assets -probably for regulatory reasons- but they will not delist $OCEAN $FET . They also did not mention if they will put Fet under the asi ticker. If anything, due to CT IQ. Lower supply of ASI could shoot up the price considering it’s based on how many tokens have been converted.

Is the market dead???

A question asked by masses up to their neck in debt they took to invest, few percentages off liquidations and probably a few days into a hunger strike. Please De-risk. It is the only reason why you cannot see the bigger picture. Studies show people under financial strain have their IQ diminished by one standard deviation. I just think it’s that there’s more pressing matters that hampers long term thinking.

If you’re asking is the market dead when one of the largest asset managers is buying btc. Multiple ETH etfs in the works. Talks of other altcoins having their own etf then you clearly are operating on too high a margin. Please de-risk. I’m not talking about meme coins. I’m talking of projects that fit the foundations of 0 -> 1 companies. Institutions have said they will adopt already available blockchain tech when regulation has caught up. Trump is pro crypto. What will you do with this info?

Bitcoin $BTC is currently trending upwards. We have hovered over the $60k+ mark for a while now, as we approach the $70k mark again, I can sense the fear of Bears.

Over $1.67 billion of short positions will be liquidated if we cross that mark and even more if we get to $73k. Some say this was a triple top. But I believe a price move above $70k will cause a new all time high due to liquidations.

Historically BTC trades sideways or downwards few months following a halving. Miners who are not profitable pack up shop and sell some of their btc. An all time high happened a bit earlier this time due to ETF demand, but I personally think we are a lot closer to a cycle bottom than top.

Still stay away from leverage. DCA is always the way.

“If you know where money will flow, just go there and stand in the middle and wait”

These Memecoins will make you rich in 2024!!

I have just one question: “Are you not tired of gambling and losing money”? When in 10 years crypto becomes a mainstay and your family says “you’ve been talking about this crypto thing for a while, I’m sure you made money”. But you didn’t because you lost it all in meme coins, won’t you feel shame?

I’ll explain the greater fool cycle of memecoins. The people who really make money are insiders. They create the coin, pump the price using various groups and tools. People buy it literally just because they think someone will buy it at a higher price. No organic demand. No utility. And here’s the interesting part. What the insiders do when they sell. They use the profits to buy majors, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Imagine how much you’d have had if you just bought Bitcoin and Ethereum. Imagine how much you’d have if you ignored news and dca into alts with potential. Balancing your risk with majors.

But instead you want to win the memecoin lottery. Make wise decisions or have fun perpetually starting from zero.

$FLOKI $PEPE

#Memecoins__ #AltcoinInvesting

Kraken might be taking legal action against Certik

Certik is a smart contract auditing firm that also does bug bounties. Recently they discovered a bug that allows you to mint crypto out of thin air on Kraken and withdraw without causing Kraken security to detect anything. This discovery potentially prevented an FTX part 2 as a malicious actor could have kept on minting tokens until Krakens reserves were emptied, leaving a hole in their assets.

This discovery was then made known to Kraken, all good right? Wrong! Certik (or accounts close to employees at Certik) had allegedly withdrawn $3 million via this bug. And moved the money through tornado cash, violating US financial laws. This raises the question of if malicious actors are working at Certik?

I’m Bullish on layer 1 blockchains…

Not financial advice.

Generally I’m a fan of infrastructure projects when a new industry is forming. The famous saying of “When there’s a gold rush, sell shovels”. Layer 1s that have stood the test of time and maintained their community, had steady uptime(sorry $SOL lol) and have build partnerships over the past years might do well in my opinion. Why is this?

If you have been paying attention, many layer 1s have morphed from what new age chains are doing, which is copy pasta. And have been developing their tooling, onboarding process, interoperability, and partnerships. You know the boring stuff that nobody wants to read. For example, not an endorsement, but $LINK have been working with SWIFT(a messaging service for facilitating cross border payments) for the past few years and have standardised a process for tokenising real world assets(read up DTCC). I’ll just give a subtle $XRP wink. $ADA recently partnered with Saudi government on doing forensics on the blockchain, and also with Argentina to further blockchain adoption.

To cut it short a lot of work behind the scenes happen that do not affect price because crypto heads generally look more short term and are not interested in what’s being built. And these partnerships are being tested out on test networks using test tokens which don’t affect price. The coming cycle might be driven by ETF. Follow who serious players are partnering with. Multiple ETFs will exist but only for tokens with institutional interest. And I don’t think they want memecoins.

Want to know how everyone’s feeling about the market today

How to do investment research? A Quick Guide

The first question I always get is how exactly do you research projects you want to invest in. There’s many ways to do this but the best way is to have information arbitrage over a majority of the market. Meaning you have to know more about what you want to invest in than the majority of the market.

This includes how it works, why it will benefit people in the long run, why it needs to exist, why some people think it should not exist(critics have very good points when you listen to them), what legal environment can kill the project and what legal environment will absolutely help it flourish. You need to know enough detail, not just to make you know for sure that you’re investment is good, but also to guard you from making rash decisions when the market is going down because you can answer the question: “Has anything fundamentally changed or is the market acting irrationally”.

The real way to make money is to enter early, not buy when everyone is buying and hope for a measly return. That is what you do when you have more money and 5% gains are worthwhile.

Firstly stop reading just headlines, read full articles. Even just one line can be misconstrued and cause you to gain or lose money. Read many! Secondly prioritise watching talks from the founders and people that work within the project. Do they explain in length what they’re doing or is it just buzz words. Understand market cap and fully diluted market cap. A project can be good, profitable and still be overvalued. Make sure you buy something undervalued, mitigating your downside and letting the upside take care of itself is key. Use influencers as entertainment, do not take financial advice from them. There is gold in listening to many YouTube videos about a project. But it’s hidden in noise, and if you’re new, you will be deceived. Do the ground work before going to influencers for content.

Finally don’t chase what you think has the highest upside. We know crypto is here to stay, so go to what you think will still be here in 10 years.

Quick thought on $FET ,

Been brutalised the past few months following the $ASI merge(cringe name imo). But let’s focus on what we can, they have worked in the past with some industry partners in self driving. And Ocean seems like a decent data project. I personally think if this was going through a VC round, it’ll be at a higher valuation than this, under current market conditions. So for the long term I’m definitely bullish on it.

More so the fact they chose to delay the merge rather than follow through and have a messy launch is what shows you which team is serious and which is here for pump and dumps.

Again AI is a highly risky investment right now and there is no far reaching commercial product from them so again very long term horizon look (5-10 years). But personally I like this entry, don’t follow me and gamble hoping you’d make money in 1 month.

The Head of the SEC Crypto and Cyber unit resigned yesterday. And following that news we now have news of the SEC suspending their lawsuit against ETH. It’s all speculation but considering Trump who is a favourite to win the election is running as pro crypto, this is good news in the macro as the SEC was stifling the industry.

Would be interesting to see how this plays out. All projects being investigated by the SEC could be worth looking at as their cases might also close following the recent activity.

As always make calculated decisions on a long term basis.

The Bitcoin ETF was an important milestone in crypto. Why? A lot of newcomers in crypto don’t really understand the importance of this. A bit of history, bitcoin actually just used to be this weird internet money thing that normal everyday people used to buy. Yes you could get the odd rich person here and there buying a tonne of it, but for the most part it was just everyday people buying it. You actually could get some for free for a period of time on a faucet website!

So why is the ETF important. And ETF allows a whole different class of buyers to enter the market. Think pension funds, corporations etc. Companies aren’t just your everyday person than Yolos on memecoins. They have entire teams dedicated to risk management(essentially spotting potential risks to an organisation). It used to be a taboo thing for companies to have any exposure to crypto because of the high risk nature. Holding it on your balance sheet immediately exposes your stock to high volatility because your assets held are in correlation to swings in crypto pricing. Heck even crypto companies struggled to get bank accounts as recent as 2023. The Bitcoin ETF made BTC legitimate in the corporate world.

Why is this important? It shows that this cycle is very different from others. BTC’s rise was not due to retail investment like past cycles. BlackRock has bought more BTC than even Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy. And ETF inflows per day at some point outpaced the number of bitcoin mined per day. Usually in retail driven markets, retail buys Bitcoin first and when they stop realising high returns, they then buy altcoins. As you may have noticed, many alts excluding AI tokens have massively underperformed against BTC, something that hasn’t happened in previous cycles. This is because institutions invest on a longer timeframe than retail driven markets. BTCs rise is solely ETF driven. Many investors don’t invest in Bitcoin at all, they see the price tag as being too high.

I’m still bullish on alts and I’ll explain in an upcoming post tomorrow why. For now I’m out of characters..

Just posting this because I’m new to Square and see a lot of horrendous takes by people posing to be expert traders, and clearly new traders who have lost money.

First off to the noobs, no trader knows what is going to happen. Most traders have a horrendous hit rate for trades but their Stop loss and take profits stops their losses from being disastrous. So if you keep opening trades without these you’ve already failed lesson 1 as a trader. Secondly you only need a few wins and to win big on those few winners to be a successful trader. More than 90% of traders are unprofitable and what I just explained is why.

Secondly trading crypto should be more of a side hobby imo because returns are so high just buying spot(normal investing with no leverage). If you only have some money left, focus more on fixing your earning problem rather than gambling on 10x + leverage.

Build your spot positions in projects you think will exist 5 years from not just chasing which went up today.

And if you put all your money in a meme coin and are on here crying. You deserved to lose all your money. So it’s better to reflect on how you lost your money than blame someone else. Because you don’t learn anything when you shift responsibility.