KyawHtut

Strategy set up a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve earlier this week, a move that signals the company is preparing for a bitcoin bear market, according to CryptoQuant.CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno told The Block that the bear market began early last month and that, if it continues, bitcoin could trade between $70,000 and $55,000 next year.

Earlier this week, Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company Strategy (ticker MSTR) established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to support dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding debt. Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said the move shows Strategy is preparing for weaker market conditions ahead.

"Strategy appears to acknowledge a non-trivial probability of a deep or extended bitcoin drawdown," CryptoQuant wrote in a Wednesday report. "Establishing a 24-month USD buffer suggests an expectation that bitcoin could trade sideways or lower for an extended period, and that capital markets may be less receptive to future stock issuance."

Strategy's USD reserve, funded through its recent MSTR at-the-market share issuance program, is intended to cover at least 12 months of dividends. The company said it plans to strengthen the reserve over time with the goal of covering 24 months or more.

CryptoQuant said this dual-reserve model — holding both USD and bitcoin — reduces the risk of forced bitcoin sales during downturns. But it also marks a "tactical shift" from Strategy's 2020–November 2025 playbook of issuing equity and convertible debt to buy more bitcoin.

"The shift carries material implications for the bitcoin market," CryptoQuant said. "On one hand, Strategy's reduced marginal bitcoin buying softens a powerful demand channel that amplified previous bull cycles. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar reserve and newly disclosed hedging/ sale capability significantly reduce the probability of distress-driven bitcoin selling, which is ultimately supportive of long-run market stability."

CryptoQuant added that Strategy no longer treats its bitcoin exposure as untouchable across all market conditions. The company's management is now acknowledging that protecting the bitcoin stack requires flexibility — including cash buffers, hedging, and selective monetization in distressed scenarios, CryptoQuant said.

Strategy’s bitcoin purchases have been slowing throughout 2025. CryptoQuant said monthly buying fell from 134,000
$BTC -0.95%
in November 2024 to 9,100 BTC in November 2025. The company has purchased 135 BTC so far in December.

Strategy’s shift from aggressive bitcoin accumulation to a more conservative, liquidity-focused treasury approach coincides with bitcoin’s largest drawdown of 2025, CryptoQuant said, noting that nearly every major onchain and technical indicator now signals the market has entered a bearish phase. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index recently fell to zero — its most bearish level — for the first time since January 2022.

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, told The Block that if the bear market continues, bitcoin could trade between $70,000 and $55,000 next year, with the latter figure in the "most bearish scenario."

Moreno added that Strategy’s creation of a USD reserve suggests the probability of selling "is a bit higher," though he emphasized this would be a last resort and that the company would turn to bitcoin derivatives first.

Mizuho maintains an outperform rating on MSTR
Investment bank Mizuho Securities also published a report on Wednesday, reiterating its outperform rating and $484 price target following Strategy's USD reserve announcement.

Mizuho said it hosted an investor Q&A with Strategy CFO Andrew Kang on Tuesday. Key takeaways included: The USD reserve is a liquidity risk-management tool, not a precursor to selling bitcoin; Strategy expects to grow the reserve further when its multiple-to-net-asset value (mNAV) is above 1, taking advantage of favorable market conditions; and Strategy believes it can sustain operations and dividend payments for more than three years at the current bitcoin price of about $92,700.

"Selling Bitcoin is considered a last resort, only if mNAV remains below 1 over a very extended period," Mizuho said. "The reserve provides a buffer to avoid forced asset sales, allowing the company to navigate prolonged crypto downturns."

兄弟们，最近比特币是不是让你很上火？
涨不上去，跌不下来，跟个死猪一样横盘，是不是都想换赛道了？
听我一句劝，别急着动！现在比特币这盘棋，底下其实已经变天了。
你看数据，交易所里的比特币，正在疯狂减少，现在只剩180万个左右，是近八年最少的时候！
这说明啥？说明外面的聪明人和老庄正在悄悄把币全提走，屯在家里，根本不打算卖！
而且，新进场的钱还是源源不断，买的人比卖的人多，整个市场的“成本线”一直在往上抬。
现在的情况就是，场外大佬在闷声吸筹，场内散户在互相折腾，谁也玩不出花来。
唯一缺的，就是一根大阳线，一根能直接干穿9万6到10万6压力区的大阳线！只要这根阳线一来，局面立马打开！
所以，现在你慌啥？手里有币的，拿住了，别被洗下车。
还没上车的，别追高，找机会慢慢建仓。别去碰那些乱七八糟的山寨，核心资产才是真龙。
记住一句话，市场越磨人，后面机会越大。
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