交易员-李墨
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交易员-李墨
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Bitget withdrawals in four batches open——today only BTC was opened; ETH tomorrow, USDT on Wednesday; the remaining batch on Oct. 2, with funds that have been locked for a week, is queuing to withdraw. On Wednesday PCE and Friday nonfarm payrolls, the Fed is still in its rate-hike cycle—there’s a more than 60% chance of another hike in October. The Strait of Hormuz also hasn’t been settled, with oil prices above 93.
Low-volume grinding down + the eve of major events = the market is waiting for the shoe to drop, so it basically doesn’t choose a direction.
This week’s real dividing line is Wednesday evening’s PCE: if it comes in above expectations → it confirms a rate hike in October and the market continues to fall; if it’s below expectations → the whole market can breathe for a moment. Before that, chasing rallies or selling can easily get hit from both sides.
My choice: stay on the sidelines and wait for Wednesday.
Bitget withdrawals in four batches open——today only BTC was opened; ETH tomorrow, USDT on Wednesday; the remaining batch on Oct. 2, with funds that have been locked for a week, is queuing to withdraw. On Wednesday PCE and Friday nonfarm payrolls, the Fed is still in its rate-hike cycle—there’s a more than 60% chance of another hike in October. The Strait of Hormuz also hasn’t been settled, with oil prices above 93.
Low-volume grinding down + the eve of major events = the market is waiting for the shoe to drop, so it basically doesn’t choose a direction.
This week’s real dividing line is Wednesday evening’s PCE: if it comes in above expectations → it confirms a rate hike in October and the market continues to fall; if it’s below expectations → the whole market can breathe for a moment. Before that, chasing rallies or selling can easily get hit from both sides.
My choice: stay on the sidelines and wait for Wednesday.
Low-volume grinding down + the eve of major events = the market is waiting for the shoe to drop, so it basically doesn’t choose a direction.
This week’s real dividing line is Wednesday evening’s PCE: if it comes in above expectations → it confirms a rate hike in October and the market continues to fall; if it’s below expectations → the whole market can breathe for a moment. Before that, chasing rallies or selling can easily get hit from both sides.
My choice: stay on the sidelines and wait for Wednesday.
303
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$SUI SUI 24h
• Direction: ranging (oscillating).
——Chop/sideways 44%, up 41%, down 15%; basically, it’s “back and forth, slightly upward-biased.”
• Upper area: the chance of tapping 1.20–1.22 is quite high (88%/82%), but the probability of a real breakout and holding above 1.25 is very small.
• Lower area: the probability of breaking below 1.15 is not large (around 10%); the 0.81 support is even farther away, so downside risk is low.
In the next 24 hours, it will most likely fluctuate between 1.15 and 1.22, test toward 1.2 but cannot break 1.25, and won’t fall deeply.
$SUI SUI 24h
• Direction: ranging (oscillating).
——Chop/sideways 44%, up 41%, down 15%; basically, it’s “back and forth, slightly upward-biased.”
• Upper area: the chance of tapping 1.20–1.22 is quite high (88%/82%), but the probability of a real breakout and holding above 1.25 is very small.
• Lower area: the probability of breaking below 1.15 is not large (around 10%); the 0.81 support is even farther away, so downside risk is low.
In the next 24 hours, it will most likely fluctuate between 1.15 and 1.22, test toward 1.2 but cannot break 1.25, and won’t fall deeply.
• Direction: ranging (oscillating).
——Chop/sideways 44%, up 41%, down 15%; basically, it’s “back and forth, slightly upward-biased.”
• Upper area: the chance of tapping 1.20–1.22 is quite high (88%/82%), but the probability of a real breakout and holding above 1.25 is very small.
• Lower area: the probability of breaking below 1.15 is not large (around 10%); the 0.81 support is even farther away, so downside risk is low.
In the next 24 hours, it will most likely fluctuate between 1.15 and 1.22, test toward 1.2 but cannot break 1.25, and won’t fall deeply.
282
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SOL 24h analysis:
Price spent the whole day chopping below $123. Several attempts to push higher failed to hold—there’s solid selling pressure overhead. $123 is unlikely to be broken in the near term; the more price grinds against it, the harder the “wall” becomes.
Support is forming below: $119-120 has buyers stepping in, and further down around $116 there’s stronger support. Overall, this is a range-bound chop pattern—resistance at $123, support at $116, with back-and-forth friction in between.
Strategy: don’t chase at the top of the range; buying on dips is more comfortable. If there’s a genuine breakout of $123 on strong volume, then consider a trend trade—right now, there’s no clear signal. #sol
SOL 24h analysis:
Price spent the whole day chopping below $123. Several attempts to push higher failed to hold—there’s solid selling pressure overhead. $123 is unlikely to be broken in the near term; the more price grinds against it, the harder the “wall” becomes.
Support is forming below: $119-120 has buyers stepping in, and further down around $116 there’s stronger support. Overall, this is a range-bound chop pattern—resistance at $123, support at $116, with back-and-forth friction in between.
Strategy: don’t chase at the top of the range; buying on dips is more comfortable. If there’s a genuine breakout of $123 on strong volume, then consider a trend trade—right now, there’s no clear signal. #sol
Price spent the whole day chopping below $123. Several attempts to push higher failed to hold—there’s solid selling pressure overhead. $123 is unlikely to be broken in the near term; the more price grinds against it, the harder the “wall” becomes.
Support is forming below: $119-120 has buyers stepping in, and further down around $116 there’s stronger support. Overall, this is a range-bound chop pattern—resistance at $123, support at $116, with back-and-forth friction in between.
Strategy: don’t chase at the top of the range; buying on dips is more comfortable. If there’s a genuine breakout of $123 on strong volume, then consider a trend trade—right now, there’s no clear signal. #sol
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$BTC This bull market—being able to catch a trade and make a little profit is already very good. Don’t always feel like you sold at the wrong time or “sold too early.” There’s no need to have sold at the very top. In a trend with big ups and downs, the most important thing is not to lose money—that alone is already quite difficult. And you even made a profit! So keep your mindset steady. Over the next couple of days, if your direction is wrong, everything could be wiped out to zero! For now, stay on the sidelines. Unless the direction becomes clear, just be honest and hold back—if you act now, you will most likely lose money. Wait and see!
$BTC This bull market—being able to catch a trade and make a little profit is already very good. Don’t always feel like you sold at the wrong time or “sold too early.” There’s no need to have sold at the very top. In a trend with big ups and downs, the most important thing is not to lose money—that alone is already quite difficult. And you even made a profit! So keep your mindset steady. Over the next couple of days, if your direction is wrong, everything could be wiped out to zero! For now, stay on the sidelines. Unless the direction becomes clear, just be honest and hold back—if you act now, you will most likely lose money. Wait and see!
192
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We got the move, and $BTC is standing exactly where we were before the data. That’s what actual patience for a trade looks like.
The data came in mixed but with some important numbers. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came at 90K vs 73K forecast, while Core PCE came in at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected. Final GDP was also stronger at 2.2% vs 1.5% forecast, while Personal Spending came in at 0.9% vs 0.8% expected. At the same time, Personal Income missed at 0.2% vs 0.5% forecast.
BTC initially surged to $85,600 and is now back where it needs to be. I’m still looking toward the lower ranges at $82,759 and the $80,000 liquidity, because the overhead liquidity is done and dusted.
We had a live session during the data, and during that session we saw the market at $83,800, then $85,600, and then back toward $83,000 and we still didn’t enter a trade.
That’s what patience is.
We can’t force an entry when the market has no clear direction. The same range is still in focus, and we’ll wait for the market to give us the setup.
Let me know, guys, how was the session? And should we have more regular sessions with our respected members so we can have proper discussions regarding the market?
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