#美股走弱,加密货币市场普遍承压 BTC UP OR DOWN? 👀 The monthly bullish FVG is getting close—can it hold over the weekend?
Chip stocks led the losses last night, with $QQQ Nasdaq 100 closing down 6.4%. $BTC also returned to around $76,000, approaching the monthly bullish FVG (fair value gap) I’ve been mentioning in recent livestreams.
In this zone, I’ll be watching the 4-hour structure: If price dips into the zone and then reclaims its upper boundary, holding it on a retest, the rebound will be more convincing. If every bounce gets sold off and price can’t even hold the lower boundary, I’ll keep waiting. Even if we get a big green candle over the weekend, I’ll still watch to see whether buyers step in on the retest.
#美国10月非农出炉:降息还有戏吗? The U.S. October jobs report is due Friday. How might BTC and the Nasdaq move? 👀
The report is scheduled for release at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 6. Markets currently expect about 62,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and a 0.3% monthly increase in average hourly earnings.
If employment and wages both come in stronger than expected, markets may scale back expectations for rate cuts, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher. The Nasdaq could come under pressure, and BTC may also be affected by cooling risk appetite.
If the data comes in weak, expectations for rate cuts may rise, supporting the Nasdaq $QQQ and $BTC . But if the weakness is severe enough to stoke recession fears, safe-haven selling could come first.
The key is how the data compares with expectations, and how the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets actually react after the release.
#美国10月非农出炉:降息还有戏吗? The U.S. October jobs report is due Friday. How might BTC and the Nasdaq move? 👀
The report is scheduled for release at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 6. Markets currently expect about 62,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and a 0.3% monthly increase in average hourly earnings.
If employment and wages both come in stronger than expected, markets may scale back expectations for rate cuts, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher. The Nasdaq could come under pressure, and BTC may also be affected by cooling risk appetite.
If the data comes in weak, expectations for rate cuts may rise, supporting the Nasdaq $QQQ and $BTC . But if the weakness is severe enough to stoke recession fears, safe-haven selling could come first.
The key is how the data compares with expectations, and how the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets actually react after the release.
#美股走弱,加密货币市场普遍承压 BTC UP OR DOWN? 👀 The monthly bullish FVG is getting close—can it hold over the weekend?
Chip stocks led the losses last night, with $QQQ Nasdaq 100 closing down 6.4%. $BTC also returned to around $76,000, approaching the monthly bullish FVG (fair value gap) I’ve been mentioning in recent livestreams.
In this zone, I’ll be watching the 4-hour structure: If price dips into the zone and then reclaims its upper boundary, holding it on a retest, the rebound will be more convincing. If every bounce gets sold off and price can’t even hold the lower boundary, I’ll keep waiting. Even if we get a big green candle over the weekend, I’ll still watch to see whether buyers step in on the retest.
#美股走弱,加密货币市场普遍承压 BTC UP OR DOWN? 👀 The monthly bullish FVG is getting close—can it hold over the weekend?
Chip stocks led the losses last night, with $QQQ Nasdaq 100 closing down 6.4%. $BTC also returned to around $76,000, approaching the monthly bullish FVG (fair value gap) I’ve been mentioning in recent livestreams.
In this zone, I’ll be watching the 4-hour structure: If price dips into the zone and then reclaims its upper boundary, holding it on a retest, the rebound will be more convincing. If every bounce gets sold off and price can’t even hold the lower boundary, I’ll keep waiting. Even if we get a big green candle over the weekend, I’ll still watch to see whether buyers step in on the retest.
Spot and perpetuals are up 25.99% and 25.70%, respectively, over the rolling 24-hour period. $ONE has gained another 19.56% over the last 4 complete hours, while trading volume has expanded to 6.26 times that of the previous window. Quantity-based OI increased 10.89% over the last hour and 37.58% over the 30-point window, with price, volume, and positions expanding in tandem.
Both the indicated and most recently settled funding rates are only around +0.0050%, so there is not yet crowding driven by high positive funding. At the time of refresh, the price was around 0.001400 USDT, down 1.51% from the previous complete hourly close. This could be position rotation in a strong market, or a warning of volatility after leverage builds up quickly. Quantity-based OI cannot distinguish new longs from new shorts, and the available data cannot prove that the rally will necessarily continue.
The bullish structure would be more convincing if price holds above 0.001443 USDT on strong volume over a complete hour, while OI growth starts to cool and funding remains moderate. If price breaks below 0.001310 USDT on rising volume while OI remains elevated, I would first guard against a concentrated unwind of momentum-chasing positions.
The rolling 24-hour gain is 124.69%, but the last 4 complete hours added only 10.32%, while quantity OI for $AKE contracted 10.02% over the 30-point window. Trading value remains 1.15 times that of the previous window, and in the latest complete 1-hour period, price was flat while trading value increased 59.57% period over period. High-volume turnover continues, but positions are not chasing higher in tandem.
The indicative and latest settled funding rates are approximately +0.0207% and +0.0326%, respectively—not yet at extreme positive levels. At the time of refresh, price was 0.84% below the previous complete hourly close. This data is more consistent with high-level turnover and deleveraging occurring together; however, quantity OI cannot distinguish between long and short exits, and AKEUSDT has no confirming Binance spot signal, so the available evidence cannot prove that the trend will necessarily continue.
The upward structure will receive fresh confirmation only if a complete hourly candle climbs back above 0.005329 USDT on increased volume and OI stops contracting rapidly. If price falls below 0.004564 USDT while volume continues to expand, I would first guard against high-level turnover turning into a concentrated pullback.
I think I know why the Hang Seng Tech Index has been so sluggish. You can tell just by looking at the Wuzhen Internet Conference: whether it’s the companies or the conference itself, things are getting worse year after year.
Let’s look back at 2017. What was everyone talking about back then? The famous “Dongxing Dinner.” The 16 people sitting around that table were undoubtedly among the wealthiest and most influential investors in China’s internet industry at the time. They gathered to discuss the state of the world, chatting and laughing together. Now look at the lineup at Wuzhen in 2026. What do you see? Influencers and actors, all of them. What does that have to do with the internet? Oh, if you count livestream shopping as the internet, then I suppose there’s a little connection. But let’s be honest: are these people in the same league as the big shots at the Dongxing Dinner back then?
As for those once all-powerful big shots, one by one, they’ve lost the swagger they had in those days. With intense regulatory pressure, cutthroat competition, and a sluggish consumer economy, who’s in the mood to wine and dine? @Tencent @Kuaishou @Meituan, I’m talking about you. It really proves that old saying: “When the tiger is away from the mountain, the monkeys become kings.” The big shots have stopped showing up, so naturally all that’s left is a bunch of nobodies making a nuisance of themselves. So, now you understand why the Hang Seng Tech Index just can’t seem to rise, right? Haha.
Over 4 complete hours, price rose 13.63%, while trading volume expanded to 4.37 times that of the previous window; the quantity OI of $BIRB increased 4.20% over the past hour and 22.34% over the 30-point window. Price, volume, and positions expanded in tandem, but the indicative funding rate was about -0.0529%, so longs have not become crowded at positive funding rates.
At the time of refresh, BIRB perpetuals were around 0.09983 USDT, up 20.21% over the rolling 24 hours; the price had already pulled back 3.07% from the previous complete hourly close. The negative funding rate could stem from crowded shorts, or simply from the contract trading at a discount. BIRBUSDT has only a Binance perpetual contract, with no spot-market confirmation, and quantity OI cannot distinguish new longs from new shorts. The available data cannot prove that the uptrend will necessarily continue.
If a complete hourly candle closes above 0.10549 USDT on rising volume, and OI growth does not accelerate further, the breakout structure will be more convincing. If the price breaks below 0.09821 USDT on rising volume while OI remains elevated, I would first watch for a concentrated unwind of newly opened leveraged positions.
A single completed hour surged 39.81%, with trading volume up 254.17% versus the previous period, while the funding rate remained at only about +0.0116%: this spike in $UAI came with volume, price, and open interest accelerating in tandem. Over the last 4 completed hours, the price rose 59.49%, and trading volume reached 10.53 times that of the previous window; quantity OI increased 13.61% in the most recent hour, indicating a clear concentration of leveraged capital entering the market.
📌 OI growth over the 30-point window was only 8.31%, below the latest hourly increase, suggesting that position expansion was mainly short-term. The most recent settlement funding rate was about +0.0057%, so long-side costs have not yet entered an extreme range. However, UAIUSDT is listed only as a Binance perpetual, with no spot-market confirmation, and quantity OI cannot distinguish between newly opened long or short positions. The available data cannot prove that the rally will necessarily continue.
The current price is about 0.1550 USDT. A breakout would be more convincing if a completed hourly candle holds above 0.1701 USDT on higher volume, without the funding rate quickly turning sharply positive. If the price falls back below 0.1496 USDT while OI remains elevated, first be alert to concentrated deleveraging among late buyers.
Over 4 complete hours, the price plunged 52.97%, trading volume rose to 4.52 times that of the preceding window, while OI contracted 32.38% over the same period: this move in $AIN looks more like concentrated deleveraging than a sustained buildup of new short positions. It is still down 48.37% over the rolling 24 hours. The latest complete 1-hour period rebounded 3.13%, but trading volume fell 59.14% from the previous hour, so the bounce has yet to be confirmed by volume.
⚠️ Both the indicator and the latest settled funding rate are around +0.0050%, with no extreme negative funding rate. Combined with the sharp drop in OI, the available data confirms that positions have been closed, but does not prove that selling pressure has ended. Nor can OI size tell us which side—longs or shorts—exited in greater numbers.
The current price is around 0.1463 USDT. A complete hourly candle reclaiming 0.1609 USDT on increased volume, with OI no longer falling rapidly, would indicate that buying support is strengthening. If the price breaks below 0.1210 USDT while volume picks up again, deleveraging may continue to drive the market.
Up 15.57% over 4 full hours, while quantity OI surged 130.65% in a 30-point window and funding rates remain negative: this move in $CYBER is not an ordinary price rebound. The latest full 1-hour period saw another 4.82% gain, with trading volume up 22.06% from the previous period; spot and perpetual prices rose 23.92% and 23.83% over 24 hours, respectively, showing consistent price reactions on both sides.
👀 Short-term OI increased by 8.00%, indicating that leveraged funds are still entering the market; however, the indicative funding rate is around -0.0032%, with the latest settlement at around -0.0062%, so longs have not created any clear crowding at positive funding rates. This combination could be due to shorts being forced to cover, or to new longs and shorts both adding positions. Quantity OI alone cannot reveal direction, so the surge in positions should not be interpreted directly as a sign that prices will keep rising.
The price is now around 0.3154 USDT. The breakout structure would be healthier if a full hourly candle holds above 0.3188 USDT on higher volume, while OI growth cools and funding rates do not quickly turn sharply positive. If the price falls below 0.2906 USDT while OI remains elevated, first watch out for leveraged positions being unwound in the opposite direction.
In the latest completed 1-hour period, the price plunged 18.00%, trading volume increased 149.14% from the previous period, and OI for $AKE unexpectedly expanded by 16.88%. The 24-hour rolling decline still stands at 22.83%; the last 4 completed hours saw a 20.32% drop, with trading volume 1.52 times that of the preceding window. This is not a simple low-volume pullback.
⚠️ OI increased 47.20% over the 30-point window, while the funding rate has fallen to around -0.89%; the most recent actual settlement was -0.0564%. The simultaneous sharp price drop, increase in positions, and extreme negative funding rate point to a significant escalation in leveraged opposing positions. However, OI cannot identify the direction of new positions, and negative funding does not prove that a rebound is inevitable.
The current price has rebounded about 1.75% from the close of the previous completed hour, which is still insufficient to confirm a bottom. If the price continues to fall below 0.002070 USDT on a completed hourly basis while OI remains elevated, first watch for downside pressure and liquidations to amplify each other. The structure will have a basis for stability only if the price recovers 0.002759 USDT on increased volume, while OI growth cools and the funding rate converges.