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The big event is coming! After BTC fails to break 116,000 three times, a major drop is inevitable!
1 BTC attempted to reach a peak of 116,000 for the second time without breaking it, and will test the bottom near 105,000 again; it has now entered a downtrend;
2 After dropping to around 105,000, it will rebound again to around 115,000, forming the third peak at 116,000;
3 If it fails to break 116,000 three times, there will be a significant drop below 100,000, testing the bottom near 90,000;
4 100,000 is likely not the bottom, and it may very well drop to around 90,000.
Bitcoin is forming a wedge-shaped oscillation range: the highs are gradually moving down, the lows are slowly rising, and trading volume is steadily shrinking—soon, a directional breakout is likely. The 4-hour K-line pattern shows bearish signals, and the strength of the rebound from the bulls is insufficient.
At the moment, the market on the larger timeframe has not entered the initial “rally” phase. In all likelihood, it will continue to exhibit a choppy and winding consolidation pattern. Even if a rebound occurs, it shouldn’t be overly optimistic. If the rebound fails to gain traction, there remains the risk of another round of downside probing.
Short-term decisive level: 62000 (early-August low) Below target: 61500—this level is packed with liquidity. The main force has a motive to dip lower and harvest liquidity; Upper resistance: 64500–65400
If price cannot hold above 64500, the market will move downward, looking toward the 61000 liquidity zone. The main force will likely probe down to 61000 to harvest liquidity. After triggering and completing a stop-out/false breakdown, it will then kick off the rebound. Only if selling pressure on the downside gradually weakens, and bullish buying volume expands with bullish (green) candles—and there is a pattern where a breakdown is quickly recovered—will price come closer to the bottom range. #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
Recently the cake-biscuit’s trend has been fairly circuitous; posting has also clearly seen a drop in traffic. It’s possible that many people are no longer paying much attention to the big cake-biscuit. On the board, most activity is market makers trading back and forth, with extremely weak liquidity, and the choppy range looks rather boring.
Looking back at the previous cycle, before the sharp surge there was also a stretch when volume was sluggish and nobody cared.
Even if you don’t trade frequently, during this time you still need to keep staring at the chart. Only by staying attentive do you have a chance to board at the low point of the cycle with suitable positions.
The less people are watching, the more you should look; when nobody is willing to buy, that’s often the opportunity.
At this stage, the Fibonacci box support in the 64476‑64179 range is still valid. If it pulls back into the range, you can consider accumulating on dips (low buys).
At this stage, the outlook is no longer bearish. For the short term, the target is first to look toward around 67000.
After volume picks up, confirm the direction again. Most likely, after a retest/pullback, the trend will still be upward.
The Upward Move Is Confirmed—The Bullish Structure Is Fully Unlocked
In trading, what is most valuable is never a sudden, explosive surge, but rather identifying and securing key levels in advance and then waiting for the market to validate itself.
Yesterday’s bullish outlook played out perfectly. In the evening session, the price action delivered as expected—breaking through the key resistance at 64744. This breakout is not merely a short-term upward push. It signals that the choppy consolidation and washout are over, and the market structure has returned to bullish control. At the time, it was clearly judged: the bulls’ offensive is firmly stabilized.
Once a trend is established, momentum is bound to continue. Today, Monday during the Asian session, the market followed through with the bullish momentum. Prices climbed steadily, reaching 65722—fully fulfilling the breakout logic. Congratulations to those who held to the long-side rhythm and traded in line with the trend; your patience has paid off.
Current price has pulled back to the 65300 level. This is a healthy technical retracement after the breakout. Strong market moves are never a straight-line climb. After a breakout, a modest pullback is the standard market behavior: flushing out excess positions and gathering energy for a second push. This does not indicate trend weakness.
The core logic right now is very clear: the trend remains bullish without change. Just guard one key watershed level: the 65000 mark. As long as the Asian session does not effectively break below this level, the bullish structure remains intact. After that, the market should continue its pattern of consolidation and upward movement.
Upward, stage-wise resistance levels are locked in as follows: First target: 66900 — prior swing high Second target: 67500 — trend pressure level
Stay in rhythm and wait for the second rally to be realized.
This upward trend exactly follows expectations. It’s right at the middle rail of the channel. Take partial profits here; the rest can continue to be held with a wait-and-see outlook.
btc at the doorstep of breaking out but still no breakthrough. With the additional sell pressure around 67k, the longs can’t push any higher, so only the downward direction is possible. The market conveniently is pulling back to the lower boundary of the channel to consolidate; 4-hour support is at 63.8k. The upward move over the weekend is very likely to continue into Monday’s session.
I think it’s a good time to set up a long order in advance—watching 66k.
Bitcoin outlook: bulls maintain an advantage, while bears are relatively weak
(1) The daily-level rebound is accompanied by a modest increase in trading volume, but the overall volume is still far below the annual average. (2) Bear volume is very weak. Although bull volume has the upper hand, the price is about to reach the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level shown in the chart below—i.e., the rebound will likely reach the prior high near 67,500. (3) On the 4-hour timeframe, bull volume shows some weakening and there is a mild volume-price divergence, which is a potential downside risk for the next rebound.
Overall view: The rebound with increased volume appears effective, but volume momentum has not fully faded yet. The 67–68K resistance zone is likely to be tested.
My personal projection is that the BTC price will rebound to around 67,500, where there will very likely be a small pullback downward. However, the downside room is limited because bear volume is simply too weak.
As expected! The air force avoids its edge of attack; both the short and long cycles have broken through entirely, with cycle resonance. Combined with the easing of the U.S.-Iran situation, we now need to prepare for talks + a ceasefire.
On the market, the 4-hour signals show an oscillating upward trend, with the lows steadily rising. At present, it has already broken through the upper boundary of the big channel. For now, it looks like it will test the previous segment high in the 67K range with a consolidation-up move. If it breaks above 67K, it will be time to attack 70K. With timing, location, and favorable conditions all aligned, the bulls surge. The main force is stepping in now—right now.
The low point of Bitcoin’s pullback decline is gradually rising, and the market sentiment is bullish!
The $65K resistance level is being slowly eaten away by the bulls, and afterward the price will most likely continue to consolidate and move upward. A second attempt to test the top around 67,500 is possible, and it’s also possible to touch the 69,000–70,000 range.
After carefully watching and taking profit at 65000, the accuracy of this whole journey is truly astonishing. I’m currently making a furious profit with my long positions; the market’s destination has long been determined—data and words are just boosters along the way.#2026足球风潮
The World Cup is almost over, the IPO is also over, and the blood has been drained. Next, it’s time for the big cake to perform.
Now back to the market: in the short term, the bulls are relatively strong. In the medium term, it’s still likely to be a choppy, winding range—around 58K–68K. We’re currently near the upper end of that consolidation zone. Don’t assume it’s a bull market just because it’s gone up. When it reaches 68K, I’ll actually start looking for short signals.
For now, don’t chase. Wait for a pullback to 64,000–64,500 to confirm support, then go long. The target is 66,500. If there’s a direct breakout above 65,000 with strong volume and it enters the strong attraction price zone, you can chase with a small position—no greed, no rush, no gambling.
Bitcoin rebound level could expand; structure is always more reliable than sentiment.
The price has reclaimed the 65,000 level again, perfectly matching what I said in a previous post. At this point, the short-term outlook basically has two possible paths: a test upward into resistance, followed by a pullback to shake out positions; or the second half of July will be set by then. My target remains 67,000–69,000. However, there aren’t enough short-side chips—so an immediate deep drop isn’t really realistic.
Once the inflation data has been digested, and with the CLARITY Act’s favorable catalyst, the market will first run through a round of upward movement. Toward the end, it will then start a decline. Given the current pace, it should first spike higher on increased volume, then pull back slightly to build strength. The pattern for the second half upward has already been established. Buying dips back to support is the timing window.#币安九周年
The pressure level is still online. Extra pastry added. Last night saw a wave of good news. After the pullback steadied around the 61800 area, it began to rebound and push to challenge the 65000 threshold mentioned earlier. The current price has gained a 2200-point move for long positions to capture. The pressure level is still online—looking forward to the pastry holding steady, absorbing positions, and then starting to surge in the second half of the year.
8:30 PM CPI release—where are the opportunities for going long in the short term?
Looking at Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe, the bearish volume is fading. Also, the price has fallen to the Fibonacci retracement 0.382 level, i.e., above 61,500!
If CPI comes in higher than expected, the market may drop to above 61,000 at most. The key basis for this view isn’t technicals, but the order book. On June 25, July 1, and July 9, when price fell into the 61,500–62,000 range, there were large buy orders appearing on the order book.
Even if CPI is bearish tonight, those buy orders in this range won’t just disappear out of thin air.
If CPI is higher than expected, after the pullback into 61,000–61,500, we see a long lower wick + increased volume, that would confirm a long opportunity—because that would mean bearish news + the order book + price all align within the support zone.
Now, the Bitcoin long signals are as follows: 1 bearish volume energy is exhausted 2 volume-price divergence 3 falling into a strong gravity zone at the 0.382 level
These three signals are already met. If later candles show long lower wicks and consecutive bullish candles to follow, the long signals may actually be triggered after the CPI bearish news.
If CPI is lower than expected, and price rebounds directly, then the long signals could be fulfilled quickly—but the entry price would be much higher than 61,000, and the risk-reward would be worse than waiting for a deeper drop before entering.
So, the post-CPI trading plan could be: bearish CPI + a sharp drop into 61,000–61,500 → look for long opportunities; bullish CPI + a direct rebound → wait for a pullback before entering.
Continuing from last time: In the morning, when the coin price is expected to pull back to around 62,500, I also went heavy long here. The weekly level support is 61,800; a double-bottom pattern is forming. Last week’s weekly candle also closed as a doji. For the short term, I’m first looking for 65,000; for this week, I’ll look around 67,000.