欧鹏

Last time & Today
$GOOGL EMA200 In the same place
The current price is 328—will we see a massive rebound in 40 days like last time?
Let’s check again in a while 👀

This pullback wave is seeing the probability of 【rate hikes】 increasing continuously. Likewise, once the probability of 【no rate hike】 rises, the market’s rebound will be even more intense‼️So if you, like me, are bullish long-term and want to catch the next huge upswing, you can build your position in batches + hold.
Personal view: as long as 76000 and 73000 don’t break down, the market will keep moving upward in the midst of consolidation—consolidate, consolidate, but still up 👆. Long-term, I remain bullish.
$BTC 、$ETH 、$SOL

After the release of PPI data, the probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve rises to 67.8%‼️
Micron $MU , SanDisk $SNDK , and Western Digital $WDC all drop simultaneously

Market may be overpricing hawkish expectations; around $4,320 will become the life-or-death line for gold’s bulls and bears‼️
Last week’s U.S. employment data, far above expectations, reshaped market expectations for the Fed’s policy path, putting clear pressure on spot gold and driving it back down. In August, nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, well above the expected 56,000, and the strong performance of the labor market has again become the focus. In my view, the current short-term pullback in spot gold makes sense logically, but it’s too early to conclude that the larger upward trend has already ended.
What we’re seeing is essentially a rapid repricing of interest-rate expectations, rather than a fundamental shift in the medium- to long-term factors that support spot gold. As a non-interest-bearing asset, when interest rates and expected real yields rise alongside a stronger dollar, spot gold’s appeal inevitably declines.
Therefore, the area around $4,320 has become an important psychological level at this stage.
The core is whether sellers can use sustained selling momentum to keep prices firmly suppressed below this level—not merely trigger a temporary dip caused by a lack of follow-through momentum. Although the strong employment report has lifted market expectations for a 25-basis-point September rate hike to nearly 58%, in my view, the market’s rapid repricing toward a more hawkish monetary policy scenario already contains an element of overreaction.
$XAU

$ARM With the semiconductor market recovering, ARM’s price has also risen above the moving average. Long-term outlook is bullish🚀🚀🚀

From the volume distribution chart of $SOL from 2024-2026.9.9, it can be seen that the most important resistance levels above the current 104 price are around 130, 144, 153, and 180. These are also the points that long positions will inevitably have to break in the future, and they are our take-profit levels.

$BTC 、$ETH 等 one breakthrough🚀

It really went up‼️ Intel $INTC and Corning $GLW are absolutely fierce 🚀
Intel closed at 95 and last night went straight up to 106 dollars; Corning closed at 154 and last night pushed up to 169 dollars.

#原油 With attacks near the Strait of Hormuz on shipping escalating and Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in the Red Sea being hit by missiles and drones launched from Yemen, the calendar spread in Brent crude has sharply flipped to a strong spot premium (backwardation). Comparing the ICE inter-month spreads as of July 1, 2026 and September 7, it can be seen that the front-end Nov–Dec spread has swung from near zero to about +3.84 per barrel. The Dec–Jan 2027 spread has moved from a slight premium (contango) to +3.22. After that, the spreads for subsequent months remain positive, but the magnitude gradually declines, and even out to the 2027/28 delivery remains a small spot premium. The six-month futures spread is currently trading at a spot premium level of around $15 per barrel, whereas earlier—at the beginning of July, before the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States broke down—this spread was flat or at a small futures premium.
This structural change usually indicates tighter spot versus near-month supply, with the convenience yield from holding inventories rising. Combined with reduced Strait passage volumes and attacks on Red Sea/Saudi facilities, the market is pricing along the curve the possibility that “export disruptions may persist into the end of the year, or even 2027.” Increasingly, traders are expecting that exports from the Persian Gulf region will face a long-term disruption, which would keep crude inventories tightening from now through the end of this year and into 2027.
For traders, a deep spot premium raises the attractiveness of near-month contracts relative to far-months, discouraging a strategy of simply warehousing crude in contango, while strengthening the logic for near-month long positions before inventories have visibly rebuilt. If shipping and facility risks ease, the spread could quickly unwind.
$BZ

September rate hike remains uncertain; where is this week’s gold bulls’ line of defense looking? After the release of last week’s U.S. employment report that beat expectations, the market’s focus this week has shifted entirely to inflation data. Strong job growth combined with steady wage performance has intensified concerns that inflation may prove more persistent than expected, pushing the probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve from 49% to about 59%.
At present, statements within the Fed appear divided: Chair Powell leans hawkish, while Governor Waller advocates waiting for the inflation data before making a decision. This makes the upcoming PPI and CPI reports key guidance ahead of the policy meeting.
From market performance, rising Treasury yields and stronger expectations for further rate hikes have exerted clear downward pressure on international spot gold. International spot gold has fallen for the second consecutive week, indicating that the rebound momentum launched in early August is weakening. The chart resembles the pattern of this year’s March rebound that fizzled out, and the macro headwinds that existed then—high oil prices, high yields, and inflation worries—are still present. Last week, international spot gold briefly broke below $4,310 (around the 200-day moving average), a key level. Although it rebounded somewhat afterward, Friday’s close was lower under the shock of strong non-farm payrolls data, worsening the near-term outlook again. This level remains core support; if it is tested again and breaks, prices may face renewed pressure. Overall, with Treasury yields and oil prices staying elevated and labor-market resilience boosting rate-hike expectations, the near-term risk profile for international spot gold still leans toward consolidating and moving down rather than trending higher.
$XAU

Pre-market trading in U.S. stocks sees a collective surge in memory stocks today—yet is it “forever short of memory” again?
After the KB Securities report was released yesterday, SK hynix and Samsung Electronics both clearly strengthened. Institutional investors believe the two companies’ memory inventories have already fallen to fewer than 10 days, while AI infrastructure spending is still expanding. With HBM4 expected to further crowd out traditional DRAM capacity, supply conditions may become even tighter in 2027.
This also further boosts sentiment across the U.S. memory supply chain.
But there are two additional catalysts behind today’s pre-market strength.
First, the U.S. memory supply chain itself had already begun to move in the prior trading session. Last Friday, SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital all rallied, indicating that before the inventory report came out, funds had already started re-trading AI memory demand.
Second, recent next-generation AI models have once again reinforced the market’s expectations for HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise storage demand. The Asian semiconductor sector has already led the rally, and U.S.-listed related names are continuing to follow in pre-market trading.
So today’s collective rise in memory stocks is more like several factors working together:
AI demand expectations are heating up again, inventories are at a low level, and there is also expectations of recovery after the sharp pullback earlier.
Not long ago, the market was still worried that the memory cycle might have already peaked.
Now, however, the industry has raised another question:
If inventories really are down to less than 10 days, will the real supply pressure be still ahead?
$SKHY $MU $SNDK

#美股 Ton ight we need some serious bullish energy, Micron $MU , SanDisk $SNDK , SK hynix $SKHY are all surging hard before the bell‼️

Pre-market surge‼️ US stock pre-market overnight data shows Haili-si $SKHY up nearly 5% in pre-market; Korean Haili-si $SKHYNIX up nearly 6%‼️ Looks like tonight’s US stocks are set to open higher🚀

Corning $GLW but not as much as Intel $INTC and SK Hynix $SKHY 🚀
Reports say Intel CPUs will increase in price by another 10%.

I pulled $BE straight up 7% before the market today‼️

$BE has completed the breakthrough👏

Storage about to triple in price? Samsung Electronics and SK hynix’s storage semiconductor inventory has already shrunk to less than 10 days of supply. For these two global storage giants, an inventory of 10 days is no longer a tight balance—it’s a potential stockout at any moment.
$SKHYNIX 、$SKHY 、$SNDK 🚀🚀🚀

Please be tough like 6am I am—$INTC , $SKHYNIX , $SAMSUNG 🚀

Can the Corning $GLW pass through 170 to open the space above? 🚀🚀🚀

Serenity stated that Samsung and SK Hynix's memory inventories have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage may occur next year.
Samsung $SAMSUNG , Hynix $SKHY , SanDisk $SNDK 👏 👏👏