Cruise橘子哥

The Dow rose more than 500 points, while the Nasdaq was basically flat—money is moving elsewhere. Apple fell 1%, Meta nearly 2%, and Google 1%, while Eli Lilly gained more than 3% to close at a record high, with a market cap of over $1 trillion. An ETF offering 3x leveraged exposure to small-cap stocks rose nearly 5%. Last week, stocks were hammered by concerns about AI profits; this week, money is flowing into value stocks, cyclicals, and small caps. It feels a bit odd: the indexes are up, but if you’re holding tech stocks, you hardly feel it.

IOST, one of the public chains from 2018, surged more than 40% in a day, with its price just over $0.001.

Trading volume was under $3 million, and its market cap was only a little over $37 million. That kind of money wouldn’t even make a ripple in a large-cap stock, but it sent this coin flying. Last time I chased a supposedly resurrected old chain like this, I got hit with a down day the very next day. Now, when I see volume like this, I get suspicious.

Most holders of these old coins have been underwater for years. A little buying can push the price up, but a little selling can send it crashing right back down. The order book just isn’t deep enough to absorb a few big orders.

Super Micro Computer smashed expectations. Preliminary net sales for its fiscal first quarter are estimated at $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, versus the market's previous estimate of $15 billion. Its shares rose more than 10% after hours. Dell followed with a 5% gain, while storage and optical communications stocks also turned positive after hours. Micron and SK Hynix rose nearly 3%. After taking a beating during the day, the sector bounced back together at night.

Musk has officially put a merger on the table. SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year. Its shares rose more than 8% after hours, valuing the company at $2 trillion—well above Tesla’s entire market cap. That same day, Musk said the two companies had formed special committees to explore a merger, which could become the largest acquisition in history if it goes ahead. But he added that it would require approval from 50% of all shareholders, so calling the merger a done deal would be an overstatement. SpaceX shares barely moved by the close.

Super Micro Computer raised its first-quarter revenue guidance to $18–19 billion after Tuesday’s market close, well above the $15 billion the market had expected. It also raised its gross margin forecast. The stock jumped nearly 16% in after-hours trading. The company released its results ahead of schedule, even though its conference call wasn’t due until November 3.

The timing was curious. The Nasdaq was down that day, and Apple, Meta, and Google were all weaker. The entire AI sector was waiting for cloud providers’ earnings to offer some answers. Super Micro showed its hand just before Nvidia’s GTC keynote, and its stock shot almost straight up after hours. The company hasn’t explained why it moved so quickly.

Whether AI servers are still selling well is the question this early report answers—at least in part. The rest will have to wait until the November 3 conference call.

#股票财报季
Woke up this morning to collect the expected harvest: Netflix and SpaceX both beat expectations~

Netflix Q3 revenue was $12.87 billion, in line with market expectations. EPS was $0.87, above the expected $0.82—a slight beat on profits, pretty much as I expected. The share price drop also makes sense: its Q4 revenue guidance was only $13.44 billion, below the market expectation of $13.51 billion, and the stock fell about 6% after hours.

SpaceX Q3 revenue was $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year and well above the market expectation of $12.89 billion.
EPS was $0.37, marking its first profit since going public. Revenue from its AI division (now renamed SI, or “Superintelligence”) was $7.56 billion, and Starlink had 13.6 million users—both above expectations. The only downside was capital expenditure of $19.59 billion, about $1.5 billion higher than expected, but the stock still rose after hours. Musk’s picks are still beasts 👍

Tesla reports tomorrow morning, the 22nd. I reckon that one’s in the bag too.

DOOD rose more than 80% in a day, yet the price is still stuck at 0.0025. Six million worth changed hands in a day—that’s equivalent to a third of the supply changing hands.

That kind of turnover looks lively, but the tokens are just being passed back and forth among a few groups. Volume has piled up, yet the price keeps getting pushed around without really going anywhere. I can’t tell whether this volume means new buyers are coming in to build positions, or whether they’re just trading among themselves. Either way, it’s impossible to tell who’ll be left holding the bag.

The order book is right there for all to see. If someone really wants to buy or sell a large amount, the slippage could be more exciting than the price gains.

#股票财报季

Tesla reports earnings after the market closes on October 21. Wall Street expects earnings of $0.44 per share this quarter, with revenue of around $27.8 billion.

Car sales were better than expected. Tesla delivered 486,500 vehicles this quarter, more than 20,000 above market expectations. Deliveries also exceeded production by around 20,000 vehicles, suggesting the company cleared a fair amount of inventory, so cash flow should be decent. Revenue is likely to meet expectations.

But there’s still a question mark over profits. Selling more cars doesn’t necessarily mean making more money—they may have been sold through price cuts and low-interest financing.
Last quarter, revenue beat expectations, but profits came in more than 30% below forecasts, mainly because spending on AI and autonomous driving was so high. There’s another potential drag this quarter: Tesla deployed only 13.7 GWh of energy storage, compared with the market’s original expectation of 15.9 GWh.

So my view is that revenue will very likely meet expectations, and could beat them slightly. Whether profits will meet expectations is still up in the air.

Tesla reports third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, after gaining 3.8% the day before. It fell along with tech stocks when they got hammered last week, so this rebound has clawed back some ground. Gross margin and deliveries—the two numbers to watch—will be in the report released after Wednesday’s close.

BAT is up 10%, back to 20 cents. It’s one of the old ICO-era projects that’s still around—the one behind Brave’s model of paying users in tokens to watch ads.

It has a $300 million market cap, but today’s trading volume is barely over $1 million. When an old coin with this little volume pumps, most people who chase it get trapped in the second wave. I’ve learned that lesson the hard way.

A 10% gain isn’t much. What’s strange is why it’s suddenly BAT’s turn today.

Apple has set its launch event for October 28 in Los Angeles. The star of the show is the company’s first touchscreen MacBook, featuring an iPhone-like Dynamic Island. Apple has long said that touchscreen laptops are awkward to use, but now it’s reversing course. The stock barely moved on the day the news broke, edging down slightly.

Anthropic is negotiating a $45 billion computing contract with data center developer Nscale for its Monarch campus in West Virginia. The 460-megawatt site will run Nvidia Vera Rubin chips. You don’t often see a deal like this: Microsoft had originally leased the building, but pulled out this summer, leaving the site available.

GRVT is up 17%, trading at 12.3, with a market cap of 29 million and daily trading volume of 2.3 million. Trading volume of just over 2 million has turned over nearly 10% of the circulating supply. With the float this thin, a few large orders are enough to move the price.
Turnover is close to 10%, and the money coming in and out is mostly short-term. Whether the rally can continue tomorrow depends on the depth of the order book during the first half-hour after the open.

Amazon jumped nearly 5% in a day, adding $134.3 billion in market value—the biggest single-day gain since July. Morgan Stanley named it a top pick, with one simple reason: AWS is undervalued.

On the same trading day, AWS unveiled TorchNeuron, letting PyTorch code run on its own chips without a rewrite. More than 30 early customers are already using it. Someone’s finally taking a chisel to CUDA’s wall.

The storage sector bounced the hardest on Monday: Western Digital rose 6%, SanDisk gained more than 5%, and SK Hynix and Marvell both climbed over 4%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s eight-day losing streak finally came to an end—the longest such streak since 2008.

Storage stocks were still among last week’s biggest casualties; if you were even a little slow to get out, you got buried. But at Monday’s open, they were suddenly leading the pack. The same stocks, two completely different faces in two days. Those who sold at the bottom are probably staring at their screens in disbelief right now.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s eight-day losing streak ended on Monday. It had fallen 15.7% over those eight days, its longest losing streak since 2008. Chip stocks led the way on Monday, with Western Digital up 6%. The Nasdaq rose 1%, while the Dow edged lower. The gainers were all among the stocks that had been hit hardest last week.

The most awkward part was Goldman Sachs’s data. In the five trading days through last Thursday, hedge funds cut their tech holdings by the most in a decade—the biggest reduction since Goldman began tracking the data. They made those cuts during the latter half of this sell-off, and less than two days later, chip stocks bounced back. The timing was so uncanny, all you could do was laugh ruefully.

Meta, Tesla, and SpaceX are each set to report results this week, and 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten expectations. We’ll have to wait for earnings season to unfold to see whether Monday’s rally after eight days of selling was just an oversold bounce or a genuine reversal.

WLD is sixth on the top gainers list, up 9%, with $16 million in trading volume—a huge jump over the second-place token. With a $2 billion market cap, its daily turnover is still under 1%, and the price has only moved by single digits.

The other tokens on the list are all stuck at around $1–2 million in trading volume. They’re surging, but you can’t get in or out easily. Only a token of this size can absorb that kind of money. It’s the project that gives out tokens for iris scans: a large market, with tokens spread widely.

Volume is piling up here, but the price isn’t following. The sell orders stacked above look heavier than the buy orders below.

The iPhone Duo went on sale Friday and sold out within minutes. The estimated delivery time on Apple’s official China website has already been pushed back to seven or eight weeks. Starting at nearly $2,000—well above the Pro Max—it was still the only one of the Magnificent Seven to rise that day. An estimated seven million units are expected to ship this year, just 3% of total iPhone shipments. Volume may be modest, but the price speaks for itself.

UNITREE is the only one among the top gainers to see a significant increase in trading volume, up 14.7% to just over 72 yuan, with turnover of more than 49 million. It has the best liquidity among the stocks near the top of the gainers list. Unitree is the company that makes humanoid robots and robot dogs.

It tends to follow whenever the robotics concept picks up, and there’s no real new news behind this move either—it’s purely being driven by money flowing in. To see this kind of volume without leverage suggests real money is changing hands, rather than a few trades artificially pushing the price up. The order book is a little thicker than yesterday, but there are plenty of holders trapped above the 70-yuan level. It surges, then pulls back, grinding back and forth. Anyone who missed the move and is chasing now will be paying a lot more than they would have a week ago.

Tesla’s new Roadster drove upside down at its launch, briefly lifted off the ground, and even did a flip in midair—the video looked like CGI at first glance. Its zero-to-60-mph test time was 0.81 seconds. The thrusters use a cold-gas system developed with SpaceX, and production is scheduled for 2028. The launch failed to prop up the stock: it closed down 2% on Friday, and fell more than 7% for the week.