Mek

Institutional trader. Focus on capital flow, on-chain data, and macro reading—not price prediction.

The market is split into two groups: those who read the chart and those who read the blockchain. This profile is for the second group.

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Stop being just another statistic in the market. It’s information that most people don’t see.

AMERICAN LABOR MARKET STRONGER THAN EXPECTED 🚨

August payrolls came in at 162,000 jobs, nearly triple the consensus of 56,000.

The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, in line with expectations. Labor force participation rose to 61.6%, reversing part of the decline seen since November.

The private sector added 127,000 jobs and the government, 35,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over the year.

Previous data were also revised higher: July moved from -23,000 to +21,000, and June to +31,000.

More support for a tighter liquidity thesis (some people will be reviving the hawkish thesis here, but you already know what I think about that)

This is what a lot of people in crypto don’t realize when analyzing the macro (or think they are analyzing it).

And this is what causes many people to “be surprised” by the strength of bitcoin.

The cost of U.S. public debt is already exceeding all of last year for this entire year, and now that September has begun.

That’s why global treasury yields are rising.

That’s why scarce assets are rising along with them, when they should be falling.

That’s why bitcoin’s correlation with gold has recently hit highs.

Distrust in fiat currency is pushing capital toward real and scarce assets.

But this is only the beginning.

With each new round of debt refinancing, the need for liquidity increases, and along with it, monetary degradation also increases.

The sooner you understand this, the faster you’ll distance yourself from people who don’t help you on this journey.

My analyses today will be about this.

I hope you’re paying attention.

BITCOIN IS APPROACHING LOCAL HIGHS WITHOUT LEVERAGE🔥

The pattern shown in my last order book post continues to confirm what I said about slow rallies and short pullbacks.

This is the price action that keeps a lot of retail traders trapped in small local bottoms while passive accumulators guide the market in a relatively neutralized way.

Notice that Open Interest is much higher than it was at the start of the move. Leverage is still largely absent from that current price, while passive accumulators remain allocated.

This creates a reaccumulation setup.

Something I also showed in my last analyses, indicating it could show up now with volatility decreasing over the next few weeks.

This is the environment where historically many people get stuck waiting for the next directional leg and capitulate near the reaccumulation range.

Patience and strategy—let’s go.

7 weeks. 25% of the tokenized stock market.

Since June 11, bStocks has reached a market value of over $500M, accounting for 68% of market growth, outpacing the field by 2x.

58% of the volume is outside market hours. 44% are from Gen Z. 41.5% are new to stocks. The next generation isn’t waiting on Wall Street. They’re on Binance.

7.7%+, this is your base obstacle index.

Not the IPC, but the rate of monetary depreciation.

But the true obstacle index is closer to 10%, after risk and costs.

The S&P 500 and median home prices in the US are a proxy for that—not an escape from it.

Bitcoin and Nasdaq have been the only long-term assets that consistently outperform this... choose accordingly.

A real yield rising should bring down gold and bitcoin. 🤷‍♂️

Since 2022, the two have been rising exactly as real yields rise. A lot of people got left out of this rally because they didn’t understand this break.

The old playbook said that high real yields make an asset too expensive to hold because it requires too much yield.

That’s how it was from 2000 to 2022, with a clear inverse correlation between the 10-year real yield and the price of gold.

That relationship broke in March 2022 and has never returned. Today, real yields are rising and gold is rising alongside them. And since this year, bitcoin has started to move glued to gold, with the highest correlation between the two ever recorded.

The explanation is that high real yields stopped meaning attractive yields.

They started signaling fiscal risk, the debt rollover cost, and a higher chance of Treasury intervention to keep the curve under control.

Each rise in yields now increases the probability of a new intervention, and that’s what pushes capital into a scarce asset.

A lot of investors still haven’t understood this.

That’s where the information gap and the edge live.

August was the best month for net inflows into bitcoin ETFs since July 2025 🔥

Despite net inflows of US$ 3.54 billion, 2026 remains negative on a year-to-date basis. The year-to-date balance is still US$ 1.7 billion negative.

After 2024 ended with US$ 35.2 billion and 2025 with US$ 21.3 billion, the ETFs have been net sellers in 2026 so far.

There were months of heavy redemptions between May and June, including the worst month in the entire series, with nearly US$ 4.5 billion leaving. August reversed a good portion of that, but not enough to turn the year around.

Are we seeing tradfi capital returning to bitcoin?

Global bond yields are back to the level of 2008.🚨

Only now there’s a lot more debt sitting on top of which that interest has to be paid.

The global index of sovereign bonds hit the highest yield since 2008, rising from below 0.5% in 2020 to around 3.7% now.

The level is the same as 18 years ago, but the stock of debt and the size of the deficits are not even close.

This isn’t “inflation expectations.” Just look at breakevens.

Anyone who says “it’s all fine” with public government debt really doesn’t understand math. The fiscal burden today is highly relevant.

This is a broad confidence crisis, in the planet’s largest economies.

Owning scarce assets isn’t a matter of “diversification” here.

It’s a matter of survival. Are you paying attention?

B3 confirmed that it will negotiate tokenized Brazilian shares starting in 2027, with settlement done in stablecoin.

The currency is B3RL, a real-backed stablecoin issued by the exchange itself, built on Polygon.

Eventually, almost the entire market could be tokenized.

How much capital could this bring to digital assets as well?

The Strategy has returned to buying bitcoin.

It bought 4,603 BTC at US$ 80.318 each, after spending the entire bottom period selling.

In August, between days 3 and 9, the company sold 1,690 BTC at US$ 64.262. Three weeks later it repurchased at US$ 80.318. It sold at the bottom and bought 25% higher.

The cash it had been accumulating during the downturn was used now, with the price US$ 16 thousand above where it entered the position.

The purchase was funded through share issuance via ATM, and the company also repurchased US$ 152 million in STRC, zeroing out net leverage.

“Strategy” sometimes seems to lack strategy.

In 1991, the US spent 18.4% of federal revenue just on interest, and the 30-year bond paid 8%.

Today, the spending is 18.5%, with the bond paying 5.21%.

The same weight of interest with a rate almost 3 percentage points lower means that the debt stock became so much larger that cheap interest hurts just as much as expensive interest did three decades ago.

Annual interest spending hit US$ 1.25 trillion, more than 4 times the 1991 level.

And that percentage of revenue has more than quadrupled just in the last 4 years.

There is no world for prolonged hiking. It’s simply a question of math.

This is the biggest debt crisis the fiat currency has ever experienced. And I hope you know what that means.

Profits of long-term holders have risen again with the latest bitcoin surge.

This pattern of a rebound in unrealized profitability has only appeared in 2023, 2020, and 2019.

But probably it’s nothing.

US$ 362 million in bought positions liquidated yesterday.🚨

Three times more than the positions sold in the same period.

In one-hour liquidations, there were US$ 113 million in longs versus US$ 11.5 million in shorts. Over the past 24 hours, US$ 481 million in total, with 75% on the buy side.

Bought leverage being washed out right after a strong rally is the market cleaning up those who entered late in the trend.

Usually paves the way for expansions. We keep following...

BITCOIN CONTINUES UP WITHOUT LEVERAGE 🔥

Even with the continuation of the uptrend, the amount of leverage has not increased again in the bitcoin futures market, consistent with what I said on the 21st about spot calling the shots.

Note that price is in an uptrend channel with volatility compressing while the Funding Rate continues to decelerate.

This is not a matter of "disinterest" mechanics—it’s a deleveraging and lack-of-confidence mechanic.

Traders got so hurt by the rally—probably caught off guard—that they still haven’t returned to speculate.

This creates room for passive accumulators to guide the market slowly, leaving those waiting for a new strong move behind.

In my analyses today, I’m going to explain why this is happening and at what point it should end.

Bitcoin is the ultimate collateral.

You may not understand this concept yet, but eventually you will.

The only asset on the planet that enables permissionless self-custody.

In the U.S., it will now be possible to use BTC as collateral to buy real estate, but this will be replicated across the rest of the world.

At some point, few people will actually "sell" bitcoin. Instead, they will use it as collateral.

At least those who understand money.

Do you know the "digital gold" thesis?

Well, it looks like it’s back with a lot of momentum for Bitcoin.

The 90-day correction between gold and Bitcoin has risen to an all-time high, at the moment when both assets appreciated.

Institutional investors are no longer choosing between the assets; they’re buying both as a hedge.

Probably it’s nothing.

Another reminder that Brazil's real economy is in trouble.

Another 4 years like this—how many more companies will go bankrupt?

Protect your assets while the window still exists.

About 40% of the bitcoin network accumulated unrealized losses during July.

In relative terms, similar levels to previous cycle fund formations.

Is it a bottom or not? Irrelevant.

The $60k range was already, statistically, a region of high discount in the risk/return relationship.

Are we going back there? We don’t know. But if we do, I predict a lot of people again “waiting for it to drop more” and missing the train.

And the cycle restarts.
Are you really paying attention?

JPMorgan Chase recently evaluated pursuing its own stablecoin