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The CPI print could decide what the Fed does next. 👀 #CPIWatch

The U.S. jobs report definitely changed the conversation.

August Nonfarm Payrolls jumped by 162K, way above the roughly 56K expected, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%. That sounds clearly bullish for the economy, but there’s one detail I don’t want to ignore: wage growth cooled slightly to 3.1% year over year. So the labor market is stronger, but it isn’t necessarily creating a fresh wage inflation problem.

Now comes the bigger test: CPI.

Markets are looking for around 0.4% monthly headline inflation and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI is expected around 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY. At the same time, August PPI came in at 0.4%, with energy and some service costs adding pressure.

Personally, I’m not convinced the NFP number alone is enough for a hike. If core CPI lands close to expectations, I think the Fed still has a reasonable argument to hold and watch the trend. But a hotter than expected core number could quickly strengthen the case for a 25 bps hike.

That’s why I’m watching CPI more than NFP now.

My Analysis: neutral to bearish for stocks if CPI surprises higher, while a softer print could support risk assets and keep gold interesting.

What’s your call Fed hike or hold?? 🔥

#CPIWatch #Ethcryptohub $BTC $NVDA.US

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