◢ Re-poster

Worst in 100 years

The 10-year rolling return on US Treasuries is now -1%, below the lows of December 1959 and September 1981, the latter of which marked the start of the greatest bond bull market in history:

Massive downside for oil

CTA downside convexity in oil is the definition of asymmetry.

Quite the perfect rounding bottom in $TLT on the daily and potentially setting up for sideways action for a monster cup and handle.

How to trade Brazil on the Monday open:

Short $NU and $EWZS (Brazil small caps)

Long $VALE (they earn in US Dollars so the 10% and service in Reals so the drop in the Real doesn’t impact them directly, it helps them)

Vols will be thru the roof so selling call spreads on any bounce is a better trade than buying puts outright.

Not financial advice.

Never take financial advice from anyone, anywhere at any time.

Election cycles - just stay long after midterms it seems.

On the heels of the Brazilian election, $EWZ is down 17.84%.

If it opens down that much or worse Monday morning it will be the single largest gap down (or up) in $EWZ history.

@AaloAtomics and @basepowerco coded

The anti-data center propaganda is finally getting real.

Pretty remarkable: British Columbia elects Conservative majority government for first time in nearly 100 years.

If you are just now evaluating a software factory you are way the f*ck behind.

This should be your top priority.

At a minimum, every night run the Claude security plugin and @vercel’s deepsec on a dedicated machine with a dedicated user (not root) using the latest frontier model and also create a cascading “ladder” of models with the most advanced at the top of the ladder. This should be a launchd or cron task.

In addition, you need a realtime bot listening for / tracking all CVEs and it immediately provides patches and/or notifies you of a pull request for the patch and any operator actions (think DevOps). @grok @bot is the best at this because the CVEs propagate on X.

Then you can add, more nightly runners for performance, testing, documentation, feature drift, etc.

But security should be at an absolute minimum.

What are your best practices?

The Gamma Rotation Gap is still incredibly wide between $SPY and $TLT

Next week, expect some volatility.

39% of the S&P 500 reports Q3, with sector highs of Real Estate 59%, Telecom 57%, Consumer Discretionary 51%.

It runs straight into the Oct 28 FOMC, so the bulk of Q3 prints and the Fed land in the same week.

FYI, $TLT is up 4.58% for the month of October.

"If you can't take losses, you don't deserve the gains."

-- Socrates, probably

$TLT weekly MACD bullish crossover coming

We can go up now.

Short term bottoming indicator fired today.

VIX9D / VIX ratio

When the 9 day VIX to spot VIX ratio is greater than or equal to 1.05, it typically suggests very immediate term fear/hedging has peaked.

For the past several months this has been a great short term buying indicator, but maybe this time is different.

Do or Die for $SOXX

Price is now testing the 200 day moving average for the first time since June 2025

South Korea’s KOSPI is the tail wagging the Nasdaq.

The KOSPI is only down 1.5% and overnight trading has semis, memory and the AI basket all up

New ATH @ChatGPT