CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed (F&G) Index has been frozen in "Extreme Fear" for weeks, even hitting a skeletal low of 5 this month. However, beneath this icy sentiment, the technical architecture tells a more resilient story.

Here is a streamlined breakdown of the current market structure:

1. The On-Chain Floor: NUPL & SOPR

NUPL (0.2): Despite the gloom, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is holding the "Hope" zone. This suggests the holder cost basis is still healthy; we haven't slid into the "Capitulation" phase yet.

aSOPR (0.98): While some are selling at a loss, the volume is thin. The lack of a massive spike in realized losses means panic selling hasn't truly begun—the market is bending, but not breaking.

2. The Derivative Shift: Funding & OI

After two weeks of negative funding rates, we finally saw a flip to +0.0044%. While this looks like bulls reclaiming $68,000, the Open Interest (OI) reveals a different motive:

The Divergence: As price edged up, total OI plummeted from $32B to $21.5B.

The Reality: This isn't "new money" buying the dip; it’s a short-covering rally. The upward pressure is coming from bears being forced to buy back their positions (short squeezing) rather than organic demand.

The Bottom Line

Market Realized Price ($54.8K) remains the ultimate line in the sand for any potential retreat.

History shows that when funding rates turn positive while retail remains paralyzed by "Extreme Fear," we are likely in a protracted bottoming process. These phases can grind sideways for 5 to 9 months. Until we see Open Interest rising alongside price (indicating fresh capital), we are in a waiting game of accumulation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Written by Sunny Mom

After undergoing a sharp correction, Bitcoin is now consolidating within a range between $72 000 and $65 000, a zone where significant activity from whales, long term holders, and even institutional investors is taking place.

During deep corrections or in the late stages of bear markets, investors tend to rotate capital toward Bitcoin while stepping away from altcoins. This behavior can be observed by analyzing trading volumes on Binance, broken down into three categories : BTC, ETH, and other Altcoins.

Because Binance consistently records some of the highest trading volumes in the market, it represents a particularly relevant benchmark for studying these shifts in investor behavior.

As BTC moved back above $60 000, a notable change in trading volume distribution emerged.

On February 7, Bitcoin trading volumes on Binance regained dominance, accounting for 36.8% of total exchange volume. A dominance that has continued through to today.

In comparison, altcoins represented 35.3% and Ethereum accounted for 27.8%.

Altcoin trading volumes have been the most heavily impacted during this correction.

Compared with November, when altcoins represented 59.2% of Binance trading volumes, their share had fallen to 33.6% by February 13, marking an almost 50% contraction in altcoin activity.

This pattern has appeared repeatedly during previous corrective phases, including April 2025, August 2024, and October 2022 near the end of the bear market.

It is particularly striking to observe how Bitcoin’s share of trading volume increases during periods of uncertainty and market stress.

In these environments, investors naturally gravitate toward BTC, reinforcing its role as the primary asset for capital preservation and highlighting its continued status as the market’s central benchmark.

Written by Darkfost

Although whale inflows to exchanges have increased recently, their overall holdings have continued to grow.

Inflows typically reflect short term behavior and can generate immediate selling pressure.

This chart instead provides a more medium term perspective by tracking the evolution of whale held supply on a monthly average basis.

After a sharp drop in this average, reaching nearly -7% on December 15, whale behavior appears to have shifted over the past month, as their holdings have increased by 3.4%.

Over this period, the supply held by whales rose from 2.9 million BTC to more than 3.1 million BTC, representing an accumulation of over 200 000 BTC.

The last time a whale movement of this magnitude occurred was during the April 2025 correction.

That wave of accumulation likely helped absorb selling pressure at the time and supported the continuation of the rally, allowing BTC to move from $76 000 to $126 000.

With BTC consolidating around 46% below its latest all time high, current levels can be viewed as an attractive accumulation zone. It is therefore not surprising to see some whales taking advantage of this opportunity.

That said, selling pressure remains significant, and this demand may not yet be sufficient on its own to fully offset it.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update:

📊 Binance Bitcoin Futures Power 30D Change

The Index 30D Change tracks the net change in the composite market index over the past 30 days, reflecting real momentum through price, funding, and open interest.

🔬 Key Observation

📉 By Feb 12, the indicator dropped sharply to -0.18, marking the most negative reading since July 2024.

📅 The last time we saw similar levels was between April and May 2024.

📈 After hitting similar depressed levels in May 2024, BTC later rebounded strongly, pushing above $101k alongside the first positive turns in the futures power index.

⏲️ This suggests current weakness in futures momentum, but historically such deep negative values have preceded strong rebounds once sentiment resets.

📊 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF

* The ETF tracks leading North American software companies, spanning cloud software, interactive platforms, gaming, and major names like Microsoft, Salesforce, Oracle, Adobe, and Palantir.

* Both software stocks and Bitcoin are commonly classified by investors as high-growth, high-risk assets.

📈 When macro sentiment turns optimistic, capital tends to flow into both simultaneously.

📉 When fear dominates, money exits both and seeks safety in assets like bonds or gold.

⏲️ The chart shows IGV hovering near strong historical support levels that previously held in 2024 and 2025, suggesting that a rebound in tech stocks could also support Bitcoin through renewed risk appetite.

📊 BTC: STH LTH Net Position Realized Cap

This metric tracks the 30d realized cap change for (STH) and (LTH).

📉 Currently, the STH Realized Cap remains deeply negative, reaching around -$56B on Feb 16.

This indicates that recent buyers are sitting on heavy unrealized losses.

📈 Meanwhile, LTH Realized Cap stayed positive, reflecting resilience among long‑term holders.

📉Such divergence often triggers panic selling by STH, absorbed by LTH accumulation, which historically stabilizes price after capitulation events.

Written by Amr Taha

Data on the Estimated Leverage Ratio for Ethereum on Binance reveals a clear shift in trader behavior within the derivatives market. The indicator recently registered a reading close to 0.557, its lowest value since last December. This decline follows a period in which estimated leverage reached relatively high levels, peaking near 0.675, reflecting a market transition from a high-risk environment to a more conservative, rebalancing phase.

Such a decrease in leverage indicates that traders are reducing the size of their leveraged positions or closing a portion of their highly leveraged trades. Historically, these movements tend to occur ahead of the formation of new price bases, as market participants seek to reduce risk rather than pursue quick profits driven by excessive speculation.

The move from the 0.675 level to around 0.557 is not merely a simple technical fluctuation; it reflects a shift in overall market sentiment. During periods of high leverage, the market is more prone to sharp fluctuations and sudden sell-offs, while relatively lower levels indicate a more stable environment with a reduced likelihood of large-scale liquidations.

this decline can be viewed as a positive sign in the medium term, as reduced leverage often prepares the market for healthier price action driven by genuine spot demand rather than derivatives-driven impulses. Furthermore, the combination of this low reading and relative price stability may suggest that the market is undergoing a consolidation or repositioning phase in preparation for a more pronounced subsequent move.

Written by Arab Chain

Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands reflects the average cost basis of different holder cohorts, allowing us to assess which segments of the market are currently under stress. This metric helps identify where selling pressure is coming from and whether the broader market structure remains intact.

At present, price has moved below the short-term holder realized price bands (1w–1m and 1m–3m). This indicates that short-term participants are largely underwater, and the recent downside is primarily driven by distribution from this cohort. This structure also explains why relief rallies remain capped, as price tends to face supply when it approaches short-term holders’ cost basis, where break-even exits and stop-losses cluster.

However, price has not yet established sustained acceptance below the longer-term realized price bands (6m+). This suggests the current move is better characterized as a reset / mini bear phase rather than a full-scale capitulation. Without reclaiming short-term realized price bands, trend recovery remains limited, while the preservation of long-term cost bases implies that structural downside risk is still contained.

Written by tugbachain

- Cumulative Buy/Sell Diff (alts, ex-BTC/ETH): -209B

- Jan 2025: near zero - last time demand matched supply

- Since then: -209B in 13 months. One direction only.

- BTC at 68.8K. Down from 125K+ ATH in Oct 2025.

Retail is out. Smart money rotated. No institutional alt accumulation in sight.

This is not a dip. It's 13 months of continuous net selling on CEX spot.

-209B doesn't mean bottom. It means buyers are gone.

Written by IT Tech

In the face of Bitcoin’s current downturn, serenity is the watchword. This mindset is essential, especially for beginner investors. For those just entering this market, it is crucial to understand that volatility is not a flaw, but rather the hallmark of the asset. More than that, it is one of the reasons why even former critics now invest in it. They recognized in Bitcoin the possibility of exponential growth of wealth — something they had not seen in other sectors of the economy.

Meanwhile, those who perceive its long-term value as a store of value — in a world marked by continuous monetary expansion — view the bear market without panic. The applied strategy focuses on monitoring accumulation zones with tactical allocation. And this profitable approach is only possible with concrete on-chain data. It is in this context that the Bitcoin on-chain indicator, MVRV Z-Score — in its adapted version, the Accumulation Signal — takes center stage. After all, it is through this signal that one can identify whether Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its average acquisition cost.

INDICATOR X-RAY

◾ Z-Score Line = 0 → the trigger signaling entry into buying periods with historic accumulation opportunities.

◾ Red Zone → the territory of euphoria and market tops.

◾ Current Value → 0.48

◾ Monitoring a surge → Since the bottom recorded on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has risen 713% until reaching its ATH in October 2026. The MVRV Z-Score closely tracked this trajectory.

◾ Bitcoin Current Price → $67K

◾ BTC 24h Variation → -1.27%

◾ Original Concept Developers → analysts Murad Mahmudov and David Puell.

◾ Mission of the MVRV Z-SCORE → to guide investors in detecting market cycle tops and bottoms.

CONCLUSION

Amid the downturn, on-chain data shows the way. With the MVRV Z-Score Accumulation Signal at 0.48 — that is, close to the accumulation zone — the strategy is clear: monitor, accumulate, and maintain serenity.

Written by GugaOnChain

The November 2026 U.S. midterm elections could mark a structural turning point for crypto markets, not merely as a political event, but as a catalyst for regulatory implementation. The key driver is the GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, which establishes a federal framework for stablecoins and is expected to enter full implementation within 12–24 months after the election.

Prediction markets currently indicate roughly a 60% probability of Republican Senate control and an 83% probability of Democratic House control, making a divided Congress the base case. Such a structure reduces the likelihood of abrupt regulatory shifts, favoring gradual regulatory clarity instead. This environment allows markets to reprice risk progressively as implementation details emerge.

On-chain data already reflects this transition. According to CryptoQuant, the total supply of ERC20-based stablecoins has rebounded since 2024 and exceeded $150 billion, approaching historical highs. Stablecoins represent the most direct measure of crypto market liquidity, and supply expansion signals capital positioning before risk allocation.

Historically, stablecoin supply growth has preceded major bull cycles. The current elevated supply suggests liquidity remains structurally present, even amid short-term volatility.

Meanwhile, broader market structure reforms such as the CLARITY Act remain politically dependent. Under a divided Congress, regulatory evolution is likely to be incremental rather than immediate.

Ultimately, regulation does not follow price—it reshapes the conditions under which price forms. The stablecoin supply structure indicates that the liquidity foundation for the next market cycle may already be in place.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio data on Binance reveals a significant shift in holder behavior recently, marked by a notable decline in the share of Ethereum held on the exchange. This points to a change in the market’s supply-and-demand balance.

Ethereum’s on Binance has fallen to approximately 0.0296, its lowest level since August 2024. This decline indicates a reduction in the amount of Ethereum available on the exchange relative to the total circulating supply. It suggests that investors have been withdrawing Ethereum into private wallets or storage protocols—a behavior often associated with accumulation or a reduced intention to sell in the near term.

Historically, a decline in exchange supply is considered a positive structural signal, as it implies that a larger portion of Ethereum is being held off-exchange, thereby reducing potential selling pressure. At the same time, this decline coincides with Ethereum trading near $1,950, a level that reflects relative weakness compared with previous peaks, yet still within a relatively stable trading range.

Notably, the sharp drop in Ethereum’s supply on Binance was followed by a slight rebound in the indicator over the past few days, edging back toward the 0.03 level. This may indicate a limited return of supply to the platform, whether for short-term trading or position rebalancing. However, the rebound remains modest relative to the magnitude of the preceding decline, suggesting that the broader trend still favors reduced exchange supply.

Written by Arab Chain

The situation in Bitcoin continues to deteriorate, with the asset still trading more than 45% below its previous all time high. This prolonged correction is putting pressure on a broad share of investors, and even long term holders are beginning to feel the effects of this unfavorable market dynamic.

The LTH SOPR, which measures the profits and losses realized when their UTXOs are spent, has recently moved into negative territory. While the annual average LTH SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, the indicator has fallen below the key threshold of 1 to 0.88, a configuration not seen since the end of the 2023 bear market.

On average, this implies that LTHs are now realizing losses on their sales, reflecting a gradual build up of financial stress within a group of investors that has historically been highly resilient.

At the same time, despite the growing share of realized losses, LTHs have increased their inflows to Binance in recent weeks.

The chart highlights periods when daily inflows reach levels roughly twice the annual average, signaling exceptionally elevated flows and a clear shift in behavior. These spikes in activity suggest that a portion of LTHs is actively repositioning in response to current market conditions.

This pattern has been visible since the last all time high and has accelerated in recent weeks. Several consecutive days have recorded inflows well above typical levels, pointing to sustained growth in LTH activity on the platform. Given their capacity to move significant volumes of BTC, it is unsurprising that these participants often favor Binance for its market depth and liquidity.

In this context, rising LTH inflows can be interpreted as a sign of intensifying selling pressure, even as the broader correction continues to unfold. This behavior suggests an adjustment phase in which even long term investors are actively managing their exposure, a factor that could continue to weigh on market dynamics in the short to medium term.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin Average Supply-Adjusted CDD data on Binance provides an in-depth view of the behavior of older coins and the movement of effective supply toward the exchange, offering important signals about Bitcoin holders’ decisions over the medium term.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin is trading near the $68,000 level, while Coin Days Destroyed (USD) stands at approximately $292 million, with a 30-day moving average around $667 million. At the same time, the Supply-Adjusted CDD metric is near $438 million, while its weekly average is around $741 million. These levels are considered moderate compared with previous peaks that reflected intense activity from older coins.

During periods when Supply-Adjusted CDD records sharp increases, this is often accompanied by movements of older coins toward exchanges, typically interpreted as profit-taking or redistribution. By contrast, current readings suggest that older-coin activity remains relatively limited despite the recent price decline. This behavior reflects a tendency among long-term Bitcoin holders to continue holding rather than engaging in broad-based selling.

Notably, Bitcoin’s drop below $70,000 was not accompanied by a strong spike in the indicator, which may imply that the selling pressure is driven more by short-term traders or derivatives markets rather than large-scale liquidation by long-term holders. Historically, such environments tend to form price bases before the broader trend resumes.

Written by Arab Chain

Since October 6, the date of Bitcoin’s last ATH, the price is now 46% lower, following a drawdown that exceeded 52%. This represents the largest drawdown of this cycle, highlighting the strength of the current correction.

This correction reflects not only Bitcoin’s natural volatility but also a particularly unfavorable external environment.

Indeed, during this period, the macroeconomic and geopolitical climate has significantly deteriorated, creating uncertainty that weighs on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Last summer, the market was dominated by strong buying pressure, as reflected by delta volume analysis, which supported price appreciation.

Since October, this dynamic has radically reversed. The spot net volume Delta has moved deeply into negative territory on major exchanges, notably Binance and Coinbase.

On Coinbase, monthly flows show a clear dominance of selling volumes, with a monthly average of -$89 M, while on Binance this trend is even more pronounced, at -$147 M. These figures highlight significant selling pressure impacting the spot market.

The absence of sufficient spot demand to regain control is problematic if Bitcoin is to resume a new bullish trend. In a global environment unfavorable to risk assets, investors prefer to reduce their exposure, manage their positions, and sometimes shift toward less volatile assets. This caution reflects a desire to preserve capital rather than take risks in an uncertain market, a behavior that is inherently unfavorable to Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Written by Darkfost

According to the SOPR, long term holders are also starting to come under pressure as this correction continues, marking a notable shift in market dynamics.

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a simple measure of realized profits or losses when UTXOs are spent. In this case, only UTXOs held by LTHs are considered, which allows us to directly assess their reaction to current market conditions. When the indicator falls below 1, it means that, on average, BTC is being sold at a loss.

While the annual average LTH SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, the indicator has just dropped back below the 1 threshold, reaching 0.88. Such a configuration had not occurred since the end of the 2023 bear market.

Historically, this type of break is often associated with advanced stages of a bear market, where even the most resilient holders begin reducing their exposure.

The end of bear markets has consistently been marked by a monthly SOPR reaching a ratio of 0.5.

This suggests that LTHs are gradually starting to sell at a loss, a behavior that reflects rising market stress.

However, the trend is not yet fully established. If we look at the monthly average, the SOPR still stands at 1.09, indicating that most sales are still being realized in profit over a broader timeframe.

We have therefore not yet entered a true phase of LTH capitulation.

Rather, these are early signs of weakening sentiment that could either fade if the market stabilizes or intensify if selling pressure persists.

As such, these signals represent an important area of caution to monitor in the coming weeks.

Written by Darkfost

The data indicates a noticeable escalation in the pace of Bitcoin withdrawals by miners from trading platforms, suggesting a potential shift in holding strategies or liquidity management. Since the beginning of February, approximately 36,000 Bitcoin have been withdrawn within a short period — a significant figure that reflects a change in miners’ behavior compared to previous months.

More than 12,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from the Binance platform alone. The remaining amount, exceeding 24,000 Bitcoin, was distributed across several other exchanges, indicating a broad-based movement rather than an isolated or individual transaction.

This behavior is typically interpreted as a move toward long-term storage, as miners prefer transferring their assets to cold wallets instead of keeping them on exchanges. It may also reflect growing confidence in future price appreciation, as miners tend to reduce the supply available for sale in the spot market.

Most notably, daily withdrawal activity surged sharply, peaking at over 6,000 Bitcoin withdrawn in a single day — the highest level recorded since last November. Comparisons show that this activity clearly exceeds January’s levels, reinforcing the assumption that the market may be entering a repositioning phase driven by miners.

Written by Arab Chain

Stablecoin reserves' growth peaked ahead of the late-2025 crypto price decline, rising $11.4B in the 30 days to November 5, before declining $8.4B by December 23 amid the start of the bear market. The pace of outflows has recently moderated, with reserves down only $2B over the past month. 

Binance remains the primary hub for stablecoin liquidity, holding $47.5B in USDT and USDC reserves, up 31% YoY from $35.9B. It accounts for 65% of total USDT and USDC held across centralized exchanges.

OKX, Coinbase, and Bybit trail significantly in stablecoin reserves. OKX holds $9.5B (13% share), Coinbase $5.9B (8%), and Bybit $4B (6%), with balances across Ethereum and TRON networks.

Binance’s stablecoin liquidity is overwhelmingly USDT-driven, with $42.3B in USDT (up 36% YoY from $31.0B) versus $5.2B in USDC, which has remained broadly flat year-on-year.

Written by CQ Research

This correction is testing all types of investors, from retail participants to whales and even institutions. According to the whale inflow ratio, we are seeing a clear surge in whale activity on Binance, reflecting a specific dynamic in the market.

This ratio is calculated by comparing BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions to total inflows. Using a weekly average helps reveal a clearer trend, filtering out noise from isolated, exceptional transactions.

Between February 02 and 15, the ratio rose sharply from 0.4 to 0.62, signaling a significant resurgence of whale activity on Binance. It is important to note, however, that this reflects an increase in their share of inflows, which can be interpreted as rising sell-side pressure in the market.

Part of these inflows can be attributed to a well-known whale, believed to be Garrett Jin. Nicknamed 19D5 or “the Hyperunit whale,” this whale has been particularly active on Binance recently, moving close to 10,000 BTC onto the platform.

This activity does not appear to be isolated as several whales transactions with significant amounts of BTC have been sent to the exchange, not only due to Binance’s deep liquidity, but also because the uncertain market environment is prompting all types of investors to reassess their exposure and strategy.

Written by Darkfost

Analyzing Bitcoin open interest across exchanges highlights how severely the derivatives market has contracted since the last all time high and the October 10 sell off. Speculation during this cycle reached unprecedented levels, and both novice and professional investors have paid the price.

For comparison, on Binance, Bitcoin denominated open interest reached 94 300 BTC shortly after the November 2021 peak. In October 2025, when BTC marked its market top, open interest climbed to 120 000 BTC. Across all exchanges combined, open interest stood at 221 000 BTC in April 2024 versus 381 000 BTC at the cycle peak.

The derivatives market was definitely a primary driver during this cycle, but it has also become a key force behind the decline.

The chart illustrates the average monthly percentage change in open interest.

Since the latest market top, open interest has decreased almost every month. Between October 06 and October 11 alone, open interest on Binance dropped by 20.8%, while the sharpest contractions were recorded on Bybit and Gate.io, each showing declines of 37%. This decline has persisted in nearly every subsequent month, signaling a sustained and progressively intensifying contraction.

Even now, open interest continues to fall, with Binance down another 39.3%. This is not surprising given that the platform still holds the largest share of total open interest. The trend is broadly shared across the market, with Bybit posting a 33% decline and BitMEX down 24%.

Overall, this environment indicates that investors are actively reducing exposure, cutting risk, or being forced out through liquidations driven by ongoing volatility. Under these conditions, it is difficult to envision Bitcoin stabilizing sustainably and reigniting a bullish trend in the short term.

Written by Darkfost

Status Summary:

The 30-day Netflow data on Binance reveals a critical divergence in asset movement. While stablecoins and Ethereum are fleeing the exchange, Bitcoin is experiencing net inflows, painting a complex picture for market sentiment.

Key Data Points:

Massive Liquidity Drain (Stablecoins):

A staggering total of roughly $6.7 Billion in stablecoins ($5.3B USDT and $1.4B USDC) has left Binance over the last month. This substantial outflow signals a significant reduction in “Buying Power” (Dry Powder) on the exchange, potentially weakening support walls against downward volatility.

BTC vs. ETH Divergence:

Bitcoin (BTC): In stark contrast to stablecoins, Binance recorded a Net Inflow of $1.67 Billion in BTC. Rising exchange reserves for Bitcoin are typically bearish, suggesting potential selling pressure or increased collateralization for derivatives.

Ethereum (ETH): Conversely, ETH saw a Net Outflow of $1.0 Billion, indicating strong accumulation behavior and a supply shock as coins move to cold storage or staking contracts.

Conclusion:

The combination of shrinking stablecoin liquidity and rising Bitcoin reserves presents a cautious setup for BTC price action in the short term. However, the data remains bullish for Ethereum, driven by persistent accumulation and withdrawal from the exchange.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Binance’s XRP reserve is currently around 2.57B XRP. Both the SMA(50) and SMA(100) are sloping downward. The spot reserve has clearly been in a declining trend recently. Although there are small short-term upward reactions, the overall direction remains downward.

➡️ XRP is being withdrawn from exchanges.

➡️ Sell side ready supply is decreasing.

➡️ Spot market liquidity is tightening.

Technically, this structure signals a supply squeeze. The price is currently around $1.4. After a sharp decline, it is trading near a bottom region. What’s important is that the price has fallen while reserves have also been declining. Normally, a drop in exchange reserves is considered positive for price. However, the price is still down. This suggests that while spot supply is decreasing, derivatives pressure has been stronger.

In other words, the selling pressure is not coming from the spot market. It is more likely driven by leveraged positioning and risk off behavior in the market, with XRP being withdrawn to private wallets.

If reserves continue to fall but demand does not return, the price may continue its downward trend until it finds a clear accumulation zone. Considering that Binance is the primary venue for whales and institutional participants, the fact that these reserve outflows have not yet impacted price is a notable development.

In summary, reserves are declining while price remains near the lows. This structure increases the probability of a potential short squeeze scenario ahead.

Written by PelinayPA