The bull that was once predicted seems to have come true (BNB surpasses a $100 billion market cap)
Yesterday, BNB first broke above $800, and BNB's total market capitalization surpassed $110 billion. The bull market predicted five years ago seems to have materialized today. On July 25, 2020, I first wrote about my long-term judgment on BNB in a public account, titled 'Long-term Judgment on BNB'; at that time, BNB's price was $18, with a total market capitalization of $2.7 billion. Subsequently, I wrote several articles supplementing the logic of a long-term view of a $100 billion market cap. In the 2021 bull market, BNB's total market capitalization exceeded $90 billion but did not reach $100 billion. This year, it has officially broken through. Looking back now, some of the logic has been validated, while some have been falsified, but overall, it can be considered a successful prediction. This article serves as a conclusion to the prediction made five years ago!
Someone asked me what I think about HYPE? Let’s compare it to BNB and share my views.
I got a message on the public account asking: What’s the take on HYPE? The underlying question here is: Can HYPE become the next BNB? I thought about it seriously and here’s my take. Let's cut to the chase: HYPE is solid, but it’s not the same beast as BNB. The narratives are different. HYPE is a good play in the crypto game, while BNB serves as the backbone of the crypto finance world. A good play is worth buying, but infrastructure is what you want to stack for the long haul. What’s so great about HYPE? The Hyperliquid product is genuinely out there, not just propped up by stories and community shills. The on-chain contract experience is rock solid—fast speed, strong liquidity, real users, plus it generates revenue, has fees, and buybacks. In a way, HYPE is starting to look less like a typical altcoin and more like a 'certificate of rights for an on-chain exchange.'
For long-term holding of public chain tokens, you should look for ones with strong backing, or those with a profitable business model, or low operating costs; otherwise, there is a real risk of the chain being linked to trouble. In the past two years, so many L2s and public chains have struggled to keep operating.
@harmonyprotocol has put forward a proposal: completely shut down the independent mainnet launched in 2019, move $ONE to Ethereum, and shift the team toward an "AI video remix economy." The reason is stated very plainly — the threat from nation-state actors and AI agents is too great.
This wasn’t a sudden collapse. In 2022, the Horizon cross-chain bridge was hacked for about $100 million, later attributed to Lazarus; last month it was attacked again, and cross-shard receipts were used to mint ONE out of thin air, forcing the team to roll back. The sharding narrative lasted seven years, and in the end the last straw was still security, not lack of users.
Key points of the migration plan:
A final-state snapshot, with new ONE on ETH airdropped to the same addresses; holders do not need to claim it manually Delegations and unclaimed rewards go into the governance treasury Multisigs, LPs, and on-chain apps cannot migrate, and must exit contracts before September 10 Validators can stop nodes starting September 10; a compensation pool of $1.372 million will be distributed over four seasons Total supply and emission rate remain unchanged; newly issued emissions will be redirected to the new business
Just as Lisk announced its chain would shut down on October 31, Harmony is following right behind. This wave of ancient public chains isn’t dying all at once; they’re one after another handing sovereign L1s back, relisting tokens on major chains, and having the teams move on to something else.
Chains can be shut down, narratives can be changed. As for the money in contracts, remember to withdraw it yourself first.
Crypto, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, options, futures contracts, USD deposits and withdrawals, RMB OTC, U cards, etc. Binance’s product line is becoming increasingly complete, a financial platform centered on users that combines consumer finance with investment and financing, offering both new crypto assets and traditional U.S. stocks and bonds. A one-stop financial supermarket.
Now, among financial apps, besides Alipay, Binance is the one I open most frequently every day.
Didn't DCR's two big pumps last year look like main-force accumulation? A large proportion of the existing supply is locked up in DCR mining, so there isn't much on exchanges, making it easy and quick to pump up.
Taking a look at my positions, the BTC+BNB combination has successfully weathered two bull and bear cycles, while other altcoins have almost all gone to zero, or are on the way to zero.
There are still two privacy coins worth paying attention to. You could say they are second-tier privacy concepts. The first is #ltc ; the LTC network borrowed technology from the Beam privacy project a few years ago and added privacy features. The other is dcr; #dcr has coin-mixing technology, and its own wallet comes with peer-to-peer trading with #btc .
Among the top three privacy coins by market cap #zec #XMR and #DASH , why have ZEC and DASH risen far more than XMR in this round? I think the core reason lies in the different application scenarios brought by the underlying technology. XMR is pure privacy, and its privacy features are so strong that it has become a tool for illegal activities, which is also why many major exchanges have had to delist XMR. That means liquidity is restricted and retail investors cannot easily access it. DASH and ZEC are different: their privacy networks are auditable, and users can choose whether to use the privacy network or the normal network. They offer greater transparency and are supported by more crypto exchanges, with availability on mainstream exchanges like Binance.
In this round, Huobi has been restricted, and my guess is that many tokens were swapped into these two coins and withdrawn to avoid regulation.
This year I switched some crypto into U.S. stocks and Japanese stocks. With the recent crypto rally, I calculated that stocks have significantly underperformed the #btc +#bnb portfolio.
Any KOL who takes trades based on technical indicators will eventually lead you astray. Look at the world's top traders in traditional financial markets—who among them would ever livestream trade signals? It's too funny.
Why are all the RWA projects mapping US stocks onto the blockchain, and rarely seen doing the same with A-shares? Is it due to policy restrictions, or is the target market too small?
If Justin Sun really had something happen, the crypto market would definitely shake a bit, but it wouldn’t be as catastrophic as some people imagine.
First, the market’s trust in HTX, TRON, and Justin Sun–related DeFi projects would decline. To reduce risk, funds would likely pull out of these platforms and move to more mainstream ones such as Binance, Aave, and Sky. The result probably wouldn’t be an entire DeFi collapse, but rather an increase in capital flowing into leading platforms and a short-term rise in yields.
Second, TRX would most likely take the most direct selling pressure. Today, TRON’s biggest base isn’t all kinds of ecosystem narratives—it’s the USDT transfer network. If the market worries about TRON’s stability, on-chain USDT could migrate to Ethereum, BNB Chain, or exchanges.
Third, Justin Sun is indeed a major holder of ETH and one of the more active large players in DeFi. But with Ethereum’s current size, it’s no longer something that can be determined by a single whale. Even if his positions are liquidated or sold, the impact would mainly be a short-term liquidity shock, not a change to Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals.
What’s truly worth watching, though, is HTX.
HTX’s problem has never been only Justin Sun himself. The platform’s credibility is highly tied to his personal credibility. As long as Justin Sun is fine, the market usually is willing to believe HTX can keep running. But if that core credibility breaks down, the first thing that often shows up isn’t the platform’s official shutdown—it’s users withdrawing en masse, on-chain assets trading at a discount, and certain coins suspending withdrawals.
At that point, the ones truly hurt might not be people holding BTC or ETH, but rather users who have kept large amounts of funds and small coins in HTX for a long time and don’t have time to withdraw.
So overall, even if Justin Sun really had something happen, the effect on the broader direction of the crypto market would be limited. BTC wouldn’t lose its value, Ethereum wouldn’t stop running, and stablecoin demand wouldn’t disappear.
The biggest impact would mainly be on TRX, HTX, and Justin Sun–related projects.
The crypto market is big enough that it won’t end just because one person disappears. But if a platform is overly dependent on one person’s credibility, then that person is the platform’s biggest single point of risk.
If Justin Sun really had something happen, the crypto market would definitely shake a bit, but it wouldn’t be as catastrophic as some people imagine.
First, the market’s trust in HTX, TRON, and Justin Sun–related DeFi projects would decline. To reduce risk, funds would likely pull out of these platforms and move to more mainstream ones such as Binance, Aave, and Sky. The result probably wouldn’t be an entire DeFi collapse, but rather an increase in capital flowing into leading platforms and a short-term rise in yields.
Second, TRX would most likely take the most direct selling pressure. Today, TRON’s biggest base isn’t all kinds of ecosystem narratives—it’s the USDT transfer network. If the market worries about TRON’s stability, on-chain USDT could migrate to Ethereum, BNB Chain, or exchanges.
Third, Justin Sun is indeed a major holder of ETH and one of the more active large players in DeFi. But with Ethereum’s current size, it’s no longer something that can be determined by a single whale. Even if his positions are liquidated or sold, the impact would mainly be a short-term liquidity shock, not a change to Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals.
What’s truly worth watching, though, is HTX.
HTX’s problem has never been only Justin Sun himself. The platform’s credibility is highly tied to his personal credibility. As long as Justin Sun is fine, the market usually is willing to believe HTX can keep running. But if that core credibility breaks down, the first thing that often shows up isn’t the platform’s official shutdown—it’s users withdrawing en masse, on-chain assets trading at a discount, and certain coins suspending withdrawals.
At that point, the ones truly hurt might not be people holding BTC or ETH, but rather users who have kept large amounts of funds and small coins in HTX for a long time and don’t have time to withdraw.
So overall, even if Justin Sun really had something happen, the effect on the broader direction of the crypto market would be limited. BTC wouldn’t lose its value, Ethereum wouldn’t stop running, and stablecoin demand wouldn’t disappear.
The biggest impact would mainly be on TRX, HTX, and Justin Sun–related projects.
The crypto market is big enough that it won’t end just because one person disappears. But if a platform is overly dependent on one person’s credibility, then that person is the platform’s biggest single point of risk.
The biggest crisis for a crypto exchange is a trust crisis. When customers rush to withdraw, the situation becomes critical. If an exchange never misappropriates customer assets, then there’s nothing to fear. I remember that Binance also faced issues back then, but it suffered no losses at all. FTX extensively misappropriated customer assets and didn’t make it through. This time, can HTX weather it? Do you believe that Sun Ge hasn’t touched HTX users’ assets? Refer to Pwang.
What Sun Ge can do right now is to think of every possible way to stop the customers’ withdrawal rush. And look—Huobi has suffered a DDoS attack and temporarily froze withdrawals.
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