陈副业

Near #BTC 83500, someone’s plan is to go long at 81888, with a stop-loss set below 80000. The logic is that three layers of support stack together: 82000 to 83000 is viewed as the average cost zone for ETF investors, and further down around 80000 there is support from the 365-day moving average. The macro picture also helps: the Core PCE year-over-year released on September 30 came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% expected, hitting the lowest since February this year. Market pricing for an October rate hike fell from 66% to around 45%. By year-end, the expectation of another 50 basis points also dropped from 55% to 35%. In terms of liquidity, spot ETF flows have been net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with September’s total nearing $3 billion. The first target is 84500 to 85000; if that breaks, then look at 86500. Position size: 10% to 15%; leverage no more than 3x. The data is relatively dovish—institutions are buying—but support is only a matter of probability, not a promise. Don’t treat your stop-loss as decoration. #加密货币 #BTC

Last night’s U.S. core PCE was released: the year-over-year figure came in at 3.0%, below expectations. The month-over-month increase was only 0.2%. Market pricing for a rate hike in October cooled noticeably, and institutions also pushed expectations for the next hike out to December.

But don’t read “no rate hike” directly as “rate cuts.” Inside the Fed, some still insist they won’t ease until inflation returns to 2%. As long as employment doesn’t deteriorate, the hawkish stance remains in place.

The next key event is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): if the data are strong, pressure for rate hikes returns and BTC will face headwinds; if the data are weaker, there’s room for the easing narrative to get traction.

The chart has already offered an answer—BTC surged toward 85,500 and was pushed back down. There’s heavy sell pressure overhead. Near-term support is around 82,000, with resistance at 85,000. Betting heavily on a direction before the data are finalized isn’t worth it; wait until NFP effectively pins down the direction, then act.

$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC #美联储 #NFP

$BTC $ETH This market action is a bit surreal. This move in Ethereum has been almost exactly the same as the rally back in August: it came up from 2800, keeps trying to break through 2750 over and over, but it can’t. Next, there are basically two paths—either a big bullish candle that shoots straight up, or a waterfall-like dump. But right now, at the 2700 level, under a bear-market backdrop, which do you believe more? If you push higher, even using the most conservative 10% estimate, you still have to head straight for 3000—would it really be that easy? So I’m choosing to add shorts at this point. If you’re willing to go long, you can come be my counterparty.$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%

Trump’s latest remarks: “I’ve become a passionate supporter of crypto assets. I’m a fan.” He admitted that before the midpoint of his first term, he didn’t understand this market. It was only after he saw capital continuously flowing in that he changed course—and even tossed out the line, “If the United States doesn’t have it, China will have it.”

Even more thought-provoking is that when asked whether he would put Bitcoin into children-oriented investment accounts, “Trump Accounts,” he left the remark, “Maybe something could happen.”

There’s still no definitive conclusion at this point, but just being willing to loosen his stance in official settings is enough for the market to think through several layers. U.S. policy tone is becoming a key variable in market moves.#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

The moment ADP Non-Farm Jobs report came out, the market pulled up with a big bullish candle. Many people thought they had finally gotten through the clouds and were about to see the bright moon. Then, with a turn, another large bearish candle smashed it back down—right when the late-chasers were chasing the price, they became bag-holders.

This is actually a true snapshot of the current market: gains don’t continue, and declines don’t go deep. After Bitcoin pulled back from 87,000, it has been repeatedly tugging between 82,000 and 84,000. The volatility is enough to scare people, but the spot holders’ coins are still being steadily accumulated—more like a rotation/hand-switching phase than a full trend reversal. Ethereum is chopping narrowly around 2,650, while 2,750–2,800 forms a strong resistance zone in the short term. On-chain data doesn’t look bad, but what’s missing is incremental capital entering with volume confirmation. Dogecoin is hovering near 0.093; momentum is clearly cooling off. Yet community enthusiasm hasn’t diminished—sentiment and price action are clearly diverging.

On the macro side, rate expectations and fund flows are still weighing on risk appetite. It’s hard for several major coins to decouple and run independent trends. After you’ve been through getting fooled once, you should know this: controlling your position size and responding in batches matters far more than trying to guess whether prices will rise or fall.

#BTC #ETH #DOGE #Federal Reserve

After the XDP new coin surged and then weakened all the way, the current price is 0.01994. The resistance above is 0.02401, and the support below is 0.01961. The coin’s holders’ positions are unstable, with extremely large fluctuations. The downside momentum has not been fully released yet. Once support is broken, it is likely to continue falling toward lower levels. Resistance overhead is heavy. In this stage, it is not recommended to bottom-fish; wait for confirmation signals that the trend has stabilized. $BTC $XDP $SOON #PCE数据 #美光财报 #US Treasury yields

XDPAlpha-14.63%

The money has already entered the market—what breath does SOL still need?

First, look at real inflows: over the past week, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $190 million. All seven products recorded inflows, which carries far more weight than just a sentence about “sentiment improving.” But since roughly 68% of the capital is concentrated in a single issuer, the next thing to watch is whether the buying pressure can keep spreading—rather than counting last week’s inflows again as future buying.

Next, look at how enterprises adopt this line: the reserve mechanism converts part of on-chain and off-chain service revenues into tokens and deposits them into the reserve. That gives business growth a traceable transmission path. Going forward, what matters is the actual conversion of revenue—not treating every partnership announcement as an equal amount of buying.

One more thing to distinguish is the quality of revenue: higher trading activity doesn’t necessarily translate into the same amount of income per trade. Fee rates and trading structure will affect where buybacks come from. What’s needed now is to see demand improving and prices stabilizing together—don’t rush to convert the bustle into potential upside space. #SOL #LINK #HYPE #cryptocurrency

SOL-1,66%

Traditional financial behemoths are still quietly accumulating. The latest monitoring data shows that last week, Morgan Stanley increased its holdings by about 1,650 BTC via its spot Bitcoin ETF. Its total holdings first surpassed 10,000 coins, reaching 10,436 BTC, worth approximately $875 million. This isn’t retail investors randomly “charging in”—it’s institutions using the ETF channel to keep entering the market, with more and more chips moving toward Wall Street. Don’t let yourself get shaken out by short-term volatility—follow the big money, hold on to mainstream BTC, and the trend hasn’t ended yet. #BTC #ETH

ZEC current price 1459, up 3% over the past 24 hours. After rallying to 1493, it pulled back; the bulls haven’t left yet.

Technically: RSI6=61—bullish but not overbought. Momentum is still there. MACD: the DIF is above the DEA and the red histogram continues, so the trend hasn’t broken. However, the red histogram is starting to shrink; be cautious about chasing. KDJ’s three lines are all in the high zone, with the J line turning downward—there is a short-term need to digest profit-taking.

Key levels: Resistance overhead at 1494-1510—only if it holds above this will there be further upside. Support below at 1435 is the first line—holding it keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. If it loses it, the pullback could deepen. As for the broader market, BTC and ETH have been whipsawing in high ranges, with sentiment splitting. ZEC isn’t very independent; if “big cake” (BTC) pulls back, ZEC is likely to come under pressure too.

Don’t chase. Wait for the pullback and see how it holds support. #ZEC #加密货币 #Technical Analysis

The big cake is slightly down around 83,900; last night it poked down to 82,900 and was pulled back. Before the holiday, the main players probably went on vacation too, so the market is just churning around 83,000. For the second cake, 2690—when it tried to spike to 2737 it got soft; even staying above 2700 was unstable. Since it didn’t break below 2600, just let it be for now. For BCH, 306—318 wasn’t held and it got dumped back to 303; the cost basis is still sitting above 315. During the holiday, don’t let this little bit of price action affect your mood. Eat and drink as usual; managing your position is more important than guessing whether it will go up or down. #BTC #以太坊 #BCH

$ZEC This rhythm is really comfortable. The day before yesterday, when it retraced to the low-range area, I followed the plan to set up long positions—didn’t chase. Last night, once the PCE data hit, the market immediately caught fire; ZEC took off as expected, and the floating profit briefly topped out at +3710 USDT.

For most traders, the hardest part isn’t figuring out the right direction—it’s not being able to hold the position and not being able to resist chasing or panic-selling. Laying your orders in the pullback in advance is always better than staring at the K-line during the move and scrambling to chase. Positioning relies on patience, not speed. Pullbacks are opportunities; it sounds simple, but executing it is all about mindset.

#ZEC #PCE #BTC

ZEC-2,12%

Day 62 of daily investing in spot holdings. Today the market taught me another lesson.

The PCE data came in favorably. BTC, ETH, and SOL all surged and then pulled back. Now everyone is waiting for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (nonfarm). Around $BTC 83600, support is at 83101 and resistance is at 84629. The range hasn’t broken yet—if you hold the support, you can keep grinding it out. $ETH 2675—2669 is the short-term strength/weakness pivot. If it breaks down, you need to be more cautious. $SOL 117.4 is a high-volatility product. On nonfarm day, the swings will only be bigger—make sure you control your position size. Data has been producing frequent wicks during the week, so don’t let single-day price action throw off your DCA (daily investing) rhythm. Before nonfarm, will you keep DCAing or pause to observe?

This is only my personal record and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #DCA

I ran ahead of the top—this big pullback has nothing to do with me. Around 21:43 last night, when that pump started, BTC and ETH began to lose momentum. On the 15-minute candles, we had consecutive long upper wicks—my intuition told me to pull out. I closed all the long positions I had埋伏 this afternoon: ETH average entry 2727.86, take profit +117%; ZEC average entry 1453.32, take profit +84%. Now looking at the chart: ETH has been dumped from 2737 back to 2684. A big bearish candle straight-up sliced through the middle Bollinger Band, and the MACD high-level dead cross has just started to form. Anyone still shouting to push for 2800 probably has their face turned green by now. The biggest taboo in futures trading is being greedy for the last bit of profit. If the signals don’t match, taking profit and being safe is always right. I’m on the sidelines watching; with no position, I’m not worried. $BTC $ZEC #BTC #ETH

The ETH long opened in the afternoon finally woke up. Entered at $2,662, and now it’s already touched $2,721—floating profit is up to +112%. The US stock market hasn’t opened yet, so the price action heated up on its own. If there’s more news tonight to add fuel, it’s really hard to say where it could go. This trade’s logic is very simple: if the pullback is at the right level, you take the entry; the rest is up to the market—get your stop loss set first. $ETH #ETH #加密货币 #交易复盘

Tonight, besides the PCE, you also need to take a look at Micron’s earnings. Over the past year, AI has pulled funding from GPUs all the way to HBM, DRAM, NAND, and enterprise SSDs, and Micron’s stock price has risen by nearly 280%. The market now expects this quarter’s revenue to be close to $51 billion, up about 350% year over year. EPS could potentially rise more than 900% year over year. Moreover, some institutions estimate that by 2027, server DRAM demand may increase another ~80%, and demand for server and storage SSDs could even more than double. So what you’re watching tonight isn’t just Micron. As long as storage supply and demand remain tight and AI server demand hasn’t cooled—continuing to be confirmed—then the entire storage chain will likely be brought back into the market’s pricing. #美光 #AI存储 $MU $NVDA

MU-0,11%

【Still holding CORE long positions, give a wave in the comments】

These past two months, the market has been lively—altcoins have been pumping one after another, with $BTC and $ETH also continually setting new highs. The only thing in my hands, $CORE, is like it’s asleep. Ever since the day I opened the long, it’s been stuck at the bottom consolidating horizontally, with almost no movement.

I checked my positions: opening average price 0.02609, latest traded price 0.02279—the unrealized loss is already pretty ugly. It’s not true that I’m not worried; the two months of opportunity cost is right there.

So is CORE no longer getting attention because there’s no money behind it, or has all the capital gone to other altcoins? For now, I haven’t decided to give up—I just want to ask, how many fellow travelers are there?

#CORE #山寨币 #cryptocurrency

This market move is clearly split: BTC is weak, while ETH is strong.

As long as BTC doesn’t break below the 82,500–82,800 area, it’s still in a range-accumulation rhythm. The daily uptrend hasn’t been broken. Unless it truly breaks down below 80,000, there aren’t enough conditions to talk about a major selloff.

ETH is even more decisive—its downside low at 2,626 hasn’t even been touched, and its price action is clearly stronger than BTC.

On the fundamentals, the expectation for interest-rate hikes within the year is only 49%, and it will most likely be just once. The negative news is basically the “shoe dropping.” Tonight’s PCE is the wildcard, but if the US and Iran reach a deal, oil prices could fall, and rate-hike expectations may be pushed lower still.

My plan hasn’t changed: keep holding BTC long positions and buy on dips.

#比特币 #以太坊 #行情分析 #BTC

Someone posted an account performance chart: the balance was 214u, and it dipped as low as 7u. Throughout the whole period, leverage reached 4.5x, yet it managed to deliver a 40x return. His judgment was that as long as ETH can effectively hold above 2710 and not pull back, the account could rise to around 280u in the short term. He presents the conclusion first, then shows the process—this way of thinking is worth learning. But leverage cuts both ways: if returns are amplified by how many times, the drawdown is amplified by the same multiple. To have held up from 7u to today, it’s never been luck—it's discipline and position management. $ETH #ETH #Trading心得

Recently, BTC and ETH have been stuck in a high range—going up a bit and then pulling back. Right after people chase in, it drops; right after they stop out and leave the trade, the market bounces back. Many think the market has no direction, but I think it’s more like a chip-clearing process in high-range consolidation—wearing down unplanned positions and repeatedly testing people’s patience.

Honestly, what we should be asking now isn’t whether the next candlestick will go up or down, but these three questions:
Is my position size too heavy?
Is my leverage too high?
After a further adverse move, will my account still be able to withstand it?

High-range consolidation is the easiest place to create illusions. When it rises, people think it’s about to break out; when it falls, people think it’s about to reverse. In the end, you often don’t lose because you can’t read the market—you lose because you chase and sell too frequently, and because emotions get amplified by high leverage. Without a clear direction, patience itself is a strategy. First, protect your principal. Don’t get washed out before the real market move starts.$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH #加密货币

#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, highest since 2002

These past two days, U.S. Treasuries have really blown my mind.

The 30-year yield has surged to around 5.62%, the highest since 2002; the 10-year briefly touched 5.29% as well. A few days ago I was saying that having the 10-year above 5% was already scary—turns out long-dated bonds had no intention of stopping.

Even more outrageous: after Williams “bailed” earlier and rate-hike expectations clearly eased, the long end still kept pushing higher. This suggests the market isn’t just worried about whether the Fed will raise rates; the U.S. fiscal deficit, the massive issuance of new debt ahead, and inflation that won’t come down are all already being priced into long-term Treasuries.

What does a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.6% even mean? You don’t need to do anything—just holding the government bonds gets you over 5%. For richly valued tech stocks, <$BTC > if you want to keep pushing higher, you’ll need to give capital an even bigger reason.

But in such an extreme position, I don’t want to go straight short. If 5.6% can’t break through and instead starts drifting down to 5.5% and 5.4%, I’ll be ready to re-enter <$XAU > and tech stocks. If 5.6% holds steady and it really heads toward 6%, then I’ll definitely take some profits first.

Previously, every day I’d open and check $BTC first. Now, the first thing I do when I wake up is check U.S. Treasuries. If this keeps running, Treasuries will almost become more “stimulating” than the crypto market.

$BTC #BTC #US Treasuries