Kralice 1

Çarşamba Core PCE beklentiden iyi geldi. $BTC ilk tepkiyle 85.5K üzerine çıktı ama tutunamadı. $ETH ve altcoinler için de çok önemli

Günlük yön beklentim: NÖTR-HAFİF POZİTİF 🟢 $85K üzeri → güçlü onay 🟢 $87–87.5K → breakout 🟡 $82K → kritik destek 🔴 $82K altında günlük kapanış → yapı zayıflar 🚨 $80K kaybı → daha derin düzeltme Hafta başındaki videomu izlemediyseniz mutlaka bir göz atın; şu ana kadar konuştuğumuz senaryo adım adım ilerliyor. Yarın NFP sonrası tabloyu tekrar değerlendireceğim. Yatırım tavsiyesi değildir. $BTC

Dün BTC ETF'lerinden 139.2M USD çıktı. ETF akışı şu an Bitcoin için en önemli katalizör. $BTC

Fed tarafında önemli bir değişiklik var: Bir hafta önce ekim ayında faiz artırımı ihtimali yaklaşık %69 seviyesindeydi. (Polymarket) Bugün ~%37. Yani piyasa artık ekimde yeni bir faiz artırımını ana senaryo olarak fiyatlamıyor.

🇺🇸Yarın NFP verisi geliyor. Beklenti: +90K istihdam %4.1 işsizlik Çok güçlü NFP = faiz artırım ihtimali yeniden yükselebilir. Beklenti civarı/zayıf NFP = Fed'in bekleme ihtimali güçlenebilir.

Hafta başında söylediğimiz senaryo şimdilik aynen devam ediyor. 👀 Bitcoin'de haftaya hafif yukarı yönlü bir beklenti var ve 85K güçlü kırılmadıkça Bitcoin'in bu seviyenin üzerinde kalıcı olamayacak. $BTC

There is an interesting historical threshold in Bitcoin: every August since 2013 when Bitcoin closed positive has been followed by a negative September. If September closes in the green, this 13-year pattern will be broken. $BTC is currently around +25% in August and about +7% in September right now. Let’s see if the cycle breaks—what do you think??

Is Bitcoin really getting stronger? 👀 Today the chart is a bit better than yesterday: ₿ $BTC it retested the ~84.5K level again. Oil is pulling back, and BTC ETFs are slightly positive with +$31M. Yes, it’s getting stronger.

Bitcoin saw the $83K level. Let’s look at some key market data: - Brent crude oil rose to ~108$. - The US 10-year bond yield rose to 5.23%. - The US Dollar Index rose to 101. - and BTC fell to ~82.6K. Then, with the possibility of a new US–Iran meeting, oil pulled back somewhat, and $BTC recovered to ~83.3K. -- The rise in oil increases pressure on bitcoin. -- Rising long-term yields put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. -- The dollar is strengthening. A stronger dollar usually means a tougher macro environment for BTC. Today, I’m tracking oil and US treasury yields as closely as the Bitcoin chart. For BTC, the daily direction: Neutral / Negative This is not investment advice.

In the Bitget hack, the missing amount is now $387.5M and the hacker continues to move funds. Swapped via THORChain. Bitget requested that the hacker addresses be blocked. THORChain refused, citing that the protocol was not designed to freeze funds by selecting a specific address. Meanwhile, Bitget has started allowing $BTC withdrawals again today.

Bitcoin is again pushing to challenge $85K, and we’re heading into the weekend with three key developments. 👀 1- Saudi Arabia’s oil exports increased by 80%. This is the highest level since the start of the Iran war. Saudi exports via Hormuz also rose to about 3.6M barrels/day. Reduced concerns over oil supply are important for $BTC in terms of easing inflation/interest-rate pressure. 2- It’s becoming clear why the CLARITY Act collapsed. The stablecoin yield debate, the ethical clause around Trump’s crypto links, the Senate drafting its own bill, and failed last-minute negotiations put the process into a stalemate. The law remains uncertain for now, but progress continues on the regulatory side with the SEC + CFTC. 3- And there’s notable data from the US economy: Real median household income is at 87,460$ , a record high. The official poverty rate fell to 10.2%. My daily direction expectation: neutral-slightly positive. Moreover, about $2.4B in inflows went into $BTC ETFs last week. Today, I’m monitoring whether the price can maintain itself above 85K. Not investment advice.

Bitcoin is trying to hold above $84K, but important things are happening in the background as we head into the weekend. 👀 - The US and China have agreed on recommendations for applying more favorable tariffs to a category of non-sensitive goods valued at $30 billion, in both directions. - The SEC has issued new guidance for crypto. New clarifications have come regarding staking tokens, token buybacks, project promotion, and under what conditions a token may be considered related to an investment contract. 🇮🇷 On the Iran side, meanwhile, reports that new talks are being held with the US have been denied; since there are also reports in other sources about back-channel communications via intermediaries, the situation is not yet clear. ₿ $BTC ~$84K Daily directional outlook: neutral-slightly positive Next week, the market’s focus will shift back to macro: Core PCE + NFP from the US are coming. (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls data) Not investment advice.

There’s a lot happening in crypto today. 🚨 Bitcoin is consolidating around $84K, but beneath the surface there’s a pretty strong move: today, an options expiry worth about ~$18 billion in $BTC + $ETH has settled. BTC max pain was around 75K, but as we expected, Bitcoin didn’t get pulled there. There are also other strong signals in the market: - BTC ETFs have already covered the -$5.8B deficit from July and returned to positive in 2026. - While BTC stays sideways, movement is expanding in altcoins. 🚨 On Bitget, a $351.6M “security breach” occurred. According to the CEO, the private keys were not stolen; the attackers took over the wallet backend system and used fake transfer data. - On the US–China front, the trade ceasefire has been extended; a major, comprehensive deal is not yet in place. My daily directional outlook: neutral to slightly positive. Now, I’ll be watching especially one thing: where will BTC form its new support zone? Not investment advice.

🚨 A security breach worth $351.6M occurred at Bitget. According to the CEO, no private keys were stolen; the attackers took over the wallet backend system and used fake transfer data.

Bitcoin fell from 87K to 83K, but there were no selloffs from the ETFs. 👀 Yesterday: 🟢 $BTC ETF → +$346.9M 🟢 $ETH ETF → +$104.5M Bitcoin ETFs have been positive for 5 trading days, and during this period they saw approximately $2.65 billion in inflows. So why is BTC falling? The answer is the bond market. (10Y yield 5.1%+ | Treasury volatility +21) But here’s an interesting data point: the 1-year correlation between BTC and 10Y yields is only -0.03. That means that over the long run, Bitcoin is affected more by sudden shocks in interest rates than by high interest rates themselves. Also, today there are two major developments: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump–Xi talks start today. And the U.S. administration is evaluating a plan to expand the use of dollar stablecoins globally. My expectation for daily direction: NEUTRAL-NEGATIVE. The ETF buyer is still there. Now the question is whether it can absorb the macro pressure. Not investment advice.

Today the ~$18 BILLION $BTC + $ETH options expiry is coming. 🚨 And what’s interesting: Bitcoin ~84K BTC max pain → 75K. So will a $18 billion expiry pull Bitcoin to $75K? (No) This $18 billion isn’t money that will be sold in the market as Bitcoin; it’s the nominal value of the open options. Moreover, BTC call positions are especially concentrated in the 85K–100K range. Today, BTC was also pulled down to 84K due to a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields. My daily directional outlook: neutral-positive. This is not investment advice.

The crypto market is set to reach a total market value of 3 TRILLION USD again 🚨 But today something more interesting than Bitcoin is happening: money has started rotating into altcoins. $DOGE +%15 $XRP +%7 $NEAR have risen about ~%88 over the last week. Meanwhile, $BTC is holding around 85–86K USD. The macro picture is also supporting the market: - Brent has seen gold again at 100$ . - Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if conditions are met. - Saudi Arabia restarted the East–West oil pipeline. - US 10Y bond yield is around ~%4.96. But watch out: In the last 24 hours, $844M in shorts were liquidated, and crypto perpetual OI is close to about $160 billion. The easy part of the short squeeze has largely already happened. Now the real test will be whether new buyers come in. My daily directional expectation: positive :) And in altcoins, I can now say this: It’s still early to call it an “altcoin season,” but the rotation has begun. 👀 Not investment advice.

Bitcoin has passed 85K. Now everyone is talking about 90K. 👀 $BTC But today, an important signal arrived as much as the price: Bitcoin closed weekly above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. Galaxy Research examined 13 similar signals in the past. On the 11th, Bitcoin did not make a new low afterward. In other words, in about 85% of cases, the worst part of the decline had already passed. Today, there are other things also supporting the rally: - In the last 24 hours, about ~$648M in shorts were liquidated. - Brent crude oil fell to ~$101. - US 10Y bond yields dropped below 5%. - Strategy resumed buying back: 950 BTC / $75.7M. 📍 My daily direction expectation: POSITIVE. The 50W MA signal doesn’t guarantee 90K. But for the long-term trend, it could be one of Bitcoin’s most important technical signals in recent months.

Bitcoin surpassed 85K. Now everyone is talking about 90K. 👀 But today, a signal came that’s just as important as the price: Bitcoin made a weekly close above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. Galaxy Research examined 13 similar signals from the past. In 11 of them, Bitcoin did not form a new bottom afterward. In other words, in about 85% of cases, the worst part of the decline was already behind us. There are other things today that support the rally: - Approximately $648M in short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. - Brent crude oil fell to ~$101. - US 10Y Treasury yield went below 5%. - Strategy restarted buybacks: 950 BTC / $75.7M. 📍 My outlook for today’s direction: POSITIVE. The 50W MA signal doesn’t guarantee 90K. But for the long-term trend, it could be one of Bitcoin’s most important technical signals in recent months. This is not investment advice.

Bitcoin has regained 81K and is now at the doorstep of 82K. 👀 Last week everyone expected a big selloff: 🏦 The Fed raised rates for the first time in 3 years. ❌ The CLARITY Act couldn’t progress in the Senate. 💥 In the first 24 hours, $571M in longs were liquidated. So what did Bitcoin do? It held $75K and moved above $80K. In crypto, we saw the same lesson again: moves start not when the news breaks, but when it’s priced in. Today, on the macro side as well, there are two important developments: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 The U.S. and China have started trade talks in New York ahead of Xi’s Washington visit. - China’s U.S. Treasury position fell to $618 billion, the lowest level since 2008. 📍 My $BTC daily directional expectation: POSITIVE Last week the battle was at 75K. This week the battle will be at 82K. This is not investment advice.