Burak Macro Crypto

Bitcoin is facing another macro test — this time from Japan.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
Normally, tighter Japanese policy raises questions about global liquidity and the yen-funded carry trade. But the immediate reaction has been less straightforward: the yen weakened after the decision, U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly from the 5% area, and $BTC moved back above $77K.
That makes today's price action more interesting than the headline alone.
After the Fed hike earlier this week, Bitcoin is now absorbing another major central-bank decision without an immediate breakdown. Still, resilience is not the same as confirmation — especially while financial conditions remain tight and institutional flows across crypto are mixed.
I'm watching whether $BTC can turn this resilience into a sustained reclaim rather than focusing on the first post-BOJ candle.
What would give you more confidence here: $BTC holding above $77K, or global bond yields continuing to cool?
#Bitcoin #Macro

Bitcoin just passed the first part of its macro stress test — but the harder part may come next.
The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that further tightening may still be needed.
The immediate cross-asset reaction matters: the U.S. dollar climbed to a seven-week high, short-term Treasury yields moved higher, and markets sharply repriced the probability of another rate hike before year-end.
Yet $BTC is still holding around the $76K area rather than extending the selloff.
That resilience is worth watching, but I wouldn't confuse it with confirmation.
The next question is whether Bitcoin can continue absorbing a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions once the initial post-Fed reaction settles. If $BTC starts reclaiming lost levels while the dollar remains firm, that would be a more interesting signal of underlying demand.
For now, I'm watching relative strength rather than trying to predict the next candle.
Which signal would matter more to you here: $BTC reclaiming $78K, or the dollar and Treasury yields beginning to cool?
#Bitcoin #Macro

Bitcoin is facing two very different stress tests at the same time.
$BTC is trading around the mid-$75K area after the U.S. Senate failed to advance major crypto market-structure legislation, triggering a broader risk-off move across digital assets.
But the leverage reset may be just as important as the headline itself.
Roughly $570M in bullish crypto futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with BTC and $ETH taking the largest share of the long liquidations.
Now the market immediately faces another catalyst: the Fed.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are still hovering near 5%, while markets are pricing a high probability of a 25bp rate hike today.
That makes the next reaction particularly interesting. If Bitcoin stabilizes after both a regulatory disappointment and a leverage flush while yields remain elevated, that would tell us more about underlying demand than yesterday's pre-Fed price action did.
I’m watching the reaction after the Fed rather than trying to predict the first move.
After this leverage reset, what would you watch first for confirmation — $BTC reclaiming lost levels or Treasury yields moving back below 5%?
#bitcoin #Macro

Bitcoin is holding up surprisingly well against a much tougher macro backdrop.
$BTC remains around the $77K–$78K area while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have pushed toward 5% and markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed rate hike this week.
Normally, higher yields and tighter financial conditions are a headwind for risk assets.
That makes Bitcoin's relative strength worth watching.
My key level isn't just whether BTC can trade above $78K before the Fed decision — it's whether buyers can defend the move after the decision, when liquidity expectations are repriced.
A strong hold after the Fed would be constructive. A rejection alongside rising yields would make the rally much less convincing.
What are you watching more closely this week: Bitcoin strength or macro liquidity?
#Bitcoin #Macro