云享掌门观澜

【October 26 | Monday BTC / ETH Morning Market Watch】

BTC is around $79,800. On the weekly chart, it has returned to the key moving-average zone near $79,500. On the 1-hour chart, it remains below the $80,500–$81,000 resistance zone; volume expanded after the sharp drop, leaving the short-term outlook weak. Watch support at $79,390–$79,500; a break below puts $78,500 in focus. On a rebound, first watch $80,500–$81,050, then $81,400 if that level is reclaimed.

ETH is around $2,318. On the weekly chart, it has pulled back to near the EMA30 (around $2,337), while on the 1-hour chart it remains capped by $2,345–$2,370. Holding $2,300–$2,280 would leave room for a rebound and recovery; a break below puts around $2,250 in focus. The short-term outlook will only stabilize after reclaiming $2,370–$2,386.

For Monday morning, watch the range first—don't chase the first opening candle. Trade with the trend only after a confirmed 15-minute breakout and a successful retest. If a false breakout falls back into the range, stand aside. Set your stop-loss and per-trade risk first, keep positions small, and don't chase or average down if the trade moves against you.

Yunxiang Research Institute · Guanlan | For market discussion only; not investment advice.

【A macro-heavy week at month-end | Don’t mistake two days of outflows for a full-week retreat】

Fed meeting on 10/27–28; U.S. advance GDP and PCE on 10/29; ECI on 10/30. The latter two data releases are scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time. Check the official schedule again before release.

The screenshot shows five-day net inflows of 3,767.78 BTC into BTC ETFs, but net outflows of 9,256.60 BTC over the final two days: the week was still positive overall, though momentum weakened toward the end. Don’t combine the BTC-denominated table with the all-crypto ETF overview in USD.

BTC is below the weekly EMA5 but above the EMA10. First watch 79,200–79,600; if that level breaks and a rebound fails to reclaim it, then watch 75,400–76,600. To the upside, first reclaim 81,800, then watch 84,900 and 87,400.

The U.S. QQQ was close to flat, but other major index ETFs were weak, and declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones. Resilience in the indexes doesn’t mean the broader market is rallying.

A month-end recovery depends on three things: easing rate pressure, sustained inflows, and prices reclaiming resistance. Don’t bet on one direction based on a single headline.

Guanlan | Yunxiang Research Institute
Market data is as of the screenshot timestamp, not a real-time feed; scenario analysis does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETF #FederalReserve #Macro

【Evening of Oct 25 | BTC / ETH Market Watch】

BTC is around $80,350. On the 1-hour chart, it remains below EMA30/120 (around $80,640/$81,426), with a limited rebound. MACD remains negative and RSI is around 43, pointing to weak, choppy short-term action. Watch support at $80,000–$79,600; a break below puts $79,200 in view. To the upside, first watch $80,600–$81,000; a move back above $81,400 would offer a clearer recovery signal.

ETH is around $2,333. On the 1-hour chart, it is below EMA30/120 (around $2,353/$2,390), with RSI around 40 and momentum still weak. Support is at $2,320–$2,282; on a rebound, first watch $2,340–$2,355. Reclaiming $2,390 would warrant reassessing whether momentum is turning stronger.

Tonight’s approach: The weak trend remains intact, so avoid blindly chasing shorts above support. Wait for a rebound to meet resistance, or for support to break decisively and a retest to fail before reassessing. Weekend volatility can produce false breakouts, so keep positions small, set stop-losses in advance, and sit out if there’s no signal.

Yunxiang Research Institute · Guanlan | For market discussion only; not investment advice.

【October 24 Evening | Assessing BTC After a Sharp Drop】

BTC is around $79,600. This evening it fell below the $80,000 level, with a high-volume decline on the 1-hour chart and a screenshot low near $79,200. Short-term moving averages are bearishly aligned. Although there has been a rebound after the sharp drop, there is not yet confirmation of a structural reversal. ETH is around $2,300. After quickly dropping from near $2,360 on the 15-minute chart, it rebounded but remains weak.

BTC: $79,200–$79,600 is the immediate support zone to watch. If it breaks decisively, the next levels to watch are around $78,500 and $77,800. On a rebound, first watch $80,000–$80,500; only a move back above this range and a hold there would open room for recovery. Stronger resistance is around $81,000–$81,300.

We do not recommend chasing shorts immediately after tonight’s sharp drop and long bearish candle. If considering a trend-following trade, wait for signs of weakness to appear as price rebounds into resistance, or reassess after support breaks and a retest fails to reclaim it. If there is no confirmation, stay on the sidelines. Set an invalidation level first and manage position size; do not average down or chase trades out of fear of missing out.

The accelerated decline may have been amplified by a break below a key level, cascading stop-loss and leveraged-position liquidations, and thin weekend liquidity. A single news catalyst cannot be confirmed from the screenshot alone.

Yunxiang Research Institute · Guanlan | For market discussion only; not investment advice.

In this compilation of an interview with Justin Sun, the key question about BTC’s quantum risk isn’t “when will it be cracked?” but how to migrate and reach consensus.

New addresses don’t necessarily mean quantum resistance, and stolen old coins don’t mean new coins have been issued. Advances in AI and mathematics also don’t prove that wallets will be cracked within a year.

Guanlan | Independent analysis based on the compiled transcript; not verified word for word; not investment advice.
#BTC

How can young people today break through?

Not by relying on a shortcut, but by gradually taking back the power to choose:

01｜Rebuild your perspective
Spend less time scrolling through noise; listen to more long-form content, read classics, and reflect on what you’ve learned. Cut down on your information sources and consistently follow a few high-quality ones. You can use astrology or personality tools to ask yourself questions, but make major decisions based on facts, costs, and long-term consequences.

02｜Build a solid foundation
Set aside enough emergency savings first, then invest for the long term in a diversified way that matches your risk tolerance. Don’t borrow money to bet everything, and don’t treat any one fund, stock, or crypto asset as a guaranteed winner. For your health, prioritize a regular sleep schedule, a balanced diet, routine checkups, and sustainable exercise. Ask your doctor which specific screenings you need.

03｜Build up compounding gains
Set aside regular time each day for English, reading, and professional skills. Put what you learn into practice and share it with others. Nurture relationships based on mutual respect, set boundaries, and stay in touch with old friends. Take care of your appearance and living space, but don’t feel you need to prove yourself through spending.

True breakthroughs don’t come from staking your whole life on one answer. They come from steadily building your skills, health, savings, and relationships with people you can trust.

Yunxiang Research Institute · Guanlan｜Personal growth, not investment advice. Investing involves risk; make your own informed decisions.

Crypto is dead in the water, so I might as well trade US stocks. I’ve started trading US stocks. SanDisk is awesome—pumping right from the opening bell. $sndk #闪迪涨疯了

ETF outflows and rising liquidations: check the methodology first, then the direction.

On October 16, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $10.0249 million, including about $8.7353 million from IBIT and $1.2896 million from FBTC. Another liquidation dashboard showed about $315 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours: about $209 million in long positions and $106 million in short positions.

These figures reflect changes in fund flows and leveraged positions, but they cannot, on their own, indicate which way prices will move. Liquidations result from forced position closures; they do not mean a market reversal is inevitable. A single day of net ETF flows should also be considered alongside data over time and the market’s price reaction.

Watch changes in spot demand, open interest, and funding rates. Be cautious about chasing trades, and avoid using high leverage to bet on a single signal.

The screenshots should be treated as the source of truth for the data and reporting window. Verify them before publication.
#BitcoinETF #CryptoMarkets #DerivativesRisk #TradingDiscipline

U.S. stocks are showing signs of weakness, with market focus shifting back to interest rates and the U.S. dollar.

U.S. stock indexes were broadly weaker on October 17: the S&P 500 ETF fell about 1.11%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF about 2.50%, the Dow ETF about 0.40%, and the Russell 2000 ETF about 1.69%. The screenshot shows significantly more decliners than advancers, with technology stocks under pressure.

On the macro front, U.S. CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year in September, while PPI rose 1.3% month over month. Inflation data may affect market expectations for yields and the U.S. dollar, with knock-on effects on stocks and crypto assets. The outlook still needs to be assessed alongside employment and other data; the policy path cannot be determined based on a single data point.

The screenshot does not include a latest gold quote, so the price from the previous update is not being carried forward. Going forward, watch for changes in real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and safe-haven demand.

Market quotes are based on the screenshot. Please verify macroeconomic data against official sources before publication.
#U.S.Stocks #Macroeconomics #Inflation #Gold #Cryptocurrency

BTC is consolidating after a rebound; a trend reversal still needs confirmation.

The screenshot from October 17 at 13:00 shows BTCUSDT perpetual at around 81,591.9, with a previous low of 79,732.3 and a rebound high of 82,900.5. The current price is slightly above EMA5 and EMA10, but remains below EMA30 at around 81,709.8 and EMA120 at around 82,247.2. RSI is around 47.47, indicating fairly neutral momentum on the hourly timeframe.

In the short term, watch support near 81,500 and resistance around 81,700 and 82,200–82,300. To assess whether key levels hold, don’t just look at brief moves above or below them; also consider the close, trading volume, and whether pullbacks find support.

For now, this looks more like a pullback from a rebound after a sharp drop, followed by consolidation near the lows. Wait for confirmation of direction rather than rushing to draw conclusions.

Data is from a market screenshot and is not real-time advice. Please recheck price levels before going live.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #RiskManagement

【Friday Evening Market Update | October 16】

BTC is around $82,200. On the 4-hour chart, it has reclaimed EMA5/10, but remains capped by EMA30 ($82,522) and EMA120 ($82,965). The short-term rebound is recovering, but a reversal has yet to be confirmed.

Key levels: resistance at $82,500–$83,000; support at $81,500, $80,985, and the previous low of $79,732. Holding above $83,000 could allow the rebound to continue; a break below $80,985 would increase the risk of a retest of the previous low.

ETH is around $2,467. It has rebounded but remains below the 4-hour EMA30/120. ZEC is around $1,238 and relatively strong in the short term; watch for resistance near $1,250.

The ETF screenshot shows net inflows of around 62 BTC on 10/15, following net outflows of around 3,145 BTC the previous day, indicating continued volatility in fund flows. The sentiment index is 64 (Greed); be cautious about chasing the rally.

Yunxiang Research Institute · Guanlan | For market discussion only; not investment advice.

【October Crypto Market & BTC Intraday | October 14】

BTC is currently trading at around $83,400. The daily price remains above EMA30 (around $82,386), but MACD is still weak and RSI is around 53, indicating a choppy recovery after the pullback. On the 1-hour chart, BTC is moving sideways around $83,000–$84,300, with no clear short-term direction yet.

Key levels to watch today:
Resistance: $84,100–$84,350; a breakout could put $84,800 in sight.
Support: $83,000–$82,800; if this fails, watch the previous low zone of $81,000–$80,345.

Since the start of October, BTC has pulled back from around $87,250, hitting a low of $80,345 before rebounding. It is still consolidating after a retreat from higher levels, so the rebound should not be taken as a trend reversal just yet. If BTC can hold above $84,350, the recovery could continue; a break below $82,800 would increase the risk of a retest of lower levels.

As for ETFs, the screenshot shows net inflows of around 2,148 BTC on October 13, while October 7–8 saw notable outflows. Flows are fluctuating rather than showing sustained one-way inflows. Other coins are mixed: ETH is around $2,503 and continues to consolidate near its moving averages on the 1-hour chart.

Yunxiang Research Institute · Guanlan | For market discussion only; this is not investment advice.

Bitcoin keeps bleeding lower on the daily chart; this move is headed for 78,000/76,000. Spot at 85,000 is the best selling point. Altcoins are bleeding heavily, #以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元

The National Day holiday is over. BTC’s daily momentum is weakening—has the pullback been confirmed?
After the National Day holiday, the market began showing new signals.
The chart shows BTC retreating from around $87,385 to the $83,363 area. It has fallen below the daily EMA5 and EMA10, and the MACD is weakening, making the short-term pullback signal fairly clear. However, the price remains above the EMA30, and the weekly structure is not yet enough to simply conclude that the trend has reversed.
I’ll be watching two key areas:
🔸 BTC: Can the $82,700–$82,100 range hold? On a rebound, watch whether it can reclaim $84,500–$85,000.
🔸 ETH: Is there support around $2,550? On a rebound, watch $2,595–$2,630 first, then the $2,650–$2,670 resistance zone.
For now, this looks more like “short-term cooling, with support confirmation still pending.” A bearish divergence is a risk warning, not a standalone signal to short; a sharp drop also doesn’t mean you should buy the dip unconditionally. The key is whether support, closing prices, and the strength of any rebound confirm one another.
Also keep an eye on U.S. data tonight, including initial jobless claims. Manage position sizes cautiously around the data releases, and avoid chasing rallies or selling off in a panic when volatility rises.
The market figures above are based on screenshots; please refer to real-time prices for actual market movements. For discussion purposes only; this is not investment advice.#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息

Institutions added approximately 43,415 BTC net in one month:

ETFs added approximately 33,727 BTC, with BlackRock IBIT adding 25,552 BTC—about 75.8% of ETF inflows. Public companies’ treasuries added approximately 9,687 BTC, with STRIVE and Strategy accounting for about 95.5% of corporate buying.

BTC remains above the EMA30 and EMA120 on the daily chart, but the MACD histogram has turned negative. Support: 85K, 84.6K, and 81.8K; resistance: 87K, 87.4K, and 90K.

Institutional demand remains strong in the medium term. In the short term, watch for support on a pullback or a breakout on increased volume.

#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF

October 1 — Happy National Day!

This week’s four major market observations:

BTC 4H screenshot price is about $83,648. Core support is $83,000—$82,560, with resistance at $85,000—$85,650. Only if it breaks above $85,650 will there be a chance to reopen upward space.

ETH is about $2,691. Support is $2,660—$2,616. After a breakout above $2,789, there will be conditions for a momentum catch-up acceleration.

Gold is about $4,166. It is still below the EMA30 and EMA120. $4,116 is the defensive level, while $4,200—$4,293 is the rebound confirmation zone.

Nasdaq 100 is around 30,585 points. Key support is 30,377—30,249. Risk appetite in US stocks remains stable, which is favorable for BTC to absorb at high levels.

This week, focus on the US dollar, real yields, expectations for nonfarm payrolls, and holiday liquidity. During A-share National Day closures, low trading volume can amplify wick spikes—don’t take a single candlestick as trend confirmation.

In-week strategy: For BTC and others, look for pullbacks; for ETH and others, wait for breakouts. For gold, first treat it as a repair/reversion. If Nasdaq holds 30,249, risk appetite should remain intact. During the holiday, reduce leverage and don’t chase the first bullish breakout candle.

#BTC #ETH #Gold #Nasdaq #Cryptocurrency #NationalDayMarket #MacroAnalysis

For market views only and does not constitute investment advice.

It’s finally in place. We’ve started adjusting. The pullback has intensified. Early long positions could take profit and reduce holdings. ..#QNT从日内高点回落逾40%

The moon waxes and wanes, and there are always ups and downs in the market.

The moon never stops for anyone, and neither does the行情. What we can do is to keep our own rhythm through every fullness and waning.

Hope that people will live long and together, with a thousand miles sharing the same beauty of the moon.

The Cloud Enjoy Research Institute wishes everyone a safe and happy Mid-Autumn Festival. — For today, set aside the market screen first and enjoy a mooncake.🌕#币安将上市Hyperliquid（HYPE）

Every month from 3/4/5/6, reminders to keep buying the spot
“Gold September and Silver October” matches the expectation of an upward move📈—congrats to the brothers who followed along
zec stretched 25x, and BTC & ETH rose an average of 30%

Welcome to follow us. Next, we’ll continue to dance with the big boss.$BTC