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📈 Active Macro Signal: Bitcoin’s Monthly RSI Crosses Upward 🟢
If Bitcoin’s $BTC long-term structure teaches us anything, it’s that monthly charts rarely lie. Today, attention is focused on a key move that marked a turning point in 2015, 2019, and 2023, and is now repeating in 2026:
Structural Shift Pattern: The RSI’s main line has just crossed above its moving average from the lower zone (near the midpoint of 50). Each time this happens, history confirms that institutional and long-term buying strength is taking back control of the trend.
Plenty of Room to Grow: Unlike periods of extreme euphoria, when the indicator breaks above 80 or 85, we’re in a clean, healthy acceleration zone. The price has plenty of room to continue its upward expansion without the suffocating pressure of an imminent overbought condition.
Patience pays off on higher timeframes. The roadmap remains intact. 🚀📊 $BTC
According to Glassnode's analysis, 73.6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now in profit, while the average BTC ETF holder is sitting on unusual gains. Typically, when this indicator is around 70%–75%, the market is in a constructive consolidation phase or experiencing moderate bullish momentum. It is neither at the extremes of absolute euphoria nor in deep capitulation territory below 50%.
With profits at a controlled level, a significant share of investors does not feel the urge or panic to sell and cut losses, which often helps stabilize the price. As for BTC ETF investors, this shows that a substantial portion of the institutional capital that flowed in during the preceding months either bought at strategic price levels or successfully weathered the volatility. $BTC
Bitcoin surpassed yesterday the US$87,000 after a weak jobs report in the US, then fell again when Treasury bond yields rebounded. BTC’s behavior reflects how tightly it is tied to traditional macro markets—especially bond yields and expectations for interest rates from the US Federal Reserve.
US$87,300 for now is the ceiling of the recent range: either a definitive easing in sovereign debt markets or a steady stream of capital into spot BTC ETFs that manages to absorb sell pressure. If there’s a breakout with volume, the path will be clear to once again test the psychological barrier of US$90,000. Conversely, if it loses support at US$83,500, it would invalidate the short-term bullish momentum, triggering an accelerated drop toward the US$80,000 area. $BTC
🚨🚨 Something VERY STRANGE is happening on Wall Street! 🇺🇸📉
The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs. 📈
But at the same time…
🔴 The S&P 500 short interest has just risen to 3.8% ⚠️ Similar levels to those seen around the 2008 crash 📉 SPY short interest → +21.5% in ONLY one month
🤯 WHY is bearish leverage increasing so fast while the stock market is at its HIGHS?
And here comes the interesting part… 👀
🔥 All those shorts could become the fuel for the LAST bullish squeeze.
🐻 Shorts close positions 📈 Stocks jump 🤑 Retail jumps in with FOMO 🚨 And then… the forced buying disappears.
💥 Could this dynamic be setting up the market’s FINAL top?
👀 Because after every top… a new opportunity appears. $NVDAB
The treasury firm of the XRP Evernorth token obtained shareholder approval for its merger with Armada II, paving the way to debut on Nasdaq as XRPN on October 8. This event marks an important milestone for the institutional and regulated adoption of XRP in traditional financial markets. The associated transaction and private placements have raised more than one billion dollars, backed by major players in the industry.
Like treasury vehicles focused on other cryptocurrencies, such as the popular model pioneered by Strategy with Bitcoin, Evernorth offers traditional investors a regulated and direct route to gain exposure to the price of the XRP token without needing to trade on crypto exchanges. Its initial reserve has a significant base of approximately 473 million XRP. $XRP
THE LABOR REPORT KEEPS US STRONGLY AWAY FROM A RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER ($BTC IS RISING).
What does this mean and how does it impact your investments?
▫️The US economy went from adding 133K jobs outside the agricultural sector in August to adding 29K in September, a figure WELL BELOW expectations (expected +89K) ▫️On the other hand, the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED from 4.1% to 4.2% (above the expected 4.1%) ▫️Lastly, the GROWTH in AVERAGE HOURLY INCOME FELL from 0.3% to 0.1% (it was expected to remain at 0.3%)
👀With a WEAK labor market, the chances that the FED will RAISE the rate in October are getting slimmer 👀Especially considering that PCE INFLATION came in LOWER than expected...
📍After the report, #Bitcoin briefly surpassed $87,000
BTC has just made a strong upward move and, far from losing structure, it continues to hold above the ascending trendline.
But there’s something even more important:
📈 Open Interest is rising strongly, moving from the 252K zone to surpass 261K.
💰 At the same time, the Open Interest-weighted Funding Rate remains positive, currently around 0.0087%.
This indicates that the futures market is gaining activity and that there is significant position accumulation while BTC stays near $86,000–$86,500.
The key now is here:
🔹 BTC maintains the uptrend 🔹 Open Interest continues to grow 🔹 Positive funding 🔹 Price is consolidating after the strong push
⚠️ That said: a rapid increase in Open Interest alongside positive funding also means there is more and more leverage building up in the market.
That’s why the next moves could be especially violent.
As long as BTC respects the structure and the uptrend, the bulls remain in control.
Now it’s time to watch whether BTC manages to break through and consolidate above the recent highs, or whether it first does a cleanup of leveraged positions.