Bluechip
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Bluechip
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🚨 THE ALPHA BOARD – FOUNDERS ACCESS 🚨
After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.
The Alpha Board link
#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare
After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.
The Alpha Board link
#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare
PINNED
$BTC squiggles
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
$BTC just closed August in green for the first time ever during a bear market.
BTC finished the month up 25.1%, from $62,794 to $78,545.
That's the strongest August performance since November 2024, and the 3rd best August in Bitcoin's history.
At one point, BTC was up 30% from the monthly low to the monthly high.
Bitcoin has now closed both July and August in green together, and historically, September has closed red every time that's happened.
Behind the move was a massive short squeeze.
From Aug 17-21 alone, traders got liquidated for $5.8 billion, almost half of the entire month's total.
Aug 19 alone saw $2.7 billion in short liquidations, the biggest single day for short liquidations.
By the end of the month, total liquidations hit $12.65 billion.
BTC finished the month up 25.1%, from $62,794 to $78,545.
That's the strongest August performance since November 2024, and the 3rd best August in Bitcoin's history.
At one point, BTC was up 30% from the monthly low to the monthly high.
Bitcoin has now closed both July and August in green together, and historically, September has closed red every time that's happened.
Behind the move was a massive short squeeze.
From Aug 17-21 alone, traders got liquidated for $5.8 billion, almost half of the entire month's total.
Aug 19 alone saw $2.7 billion in short liquidations, the biggest single day for short liquidations.
By the end of the month, total liquidations hit $12.65 billion.
$BTC just closed August in green for the first time ever during a bear market.
BTC finished the month up 25.1%, from $62,794 to $78,545.
That's the strongest August performance since November 2024, and the 3rd best August in Bitcoin's history.
At one point, BTC was up 30% from the monthly low to the monthly high.
Bitcoin has now closed both July and August in green together, and historically, September has closed red every time that's happened.
Behind the move was a massive short squeeze.
From Aug 17-21 alone, traders got liquidated for $5.8 billion, almost half of the entire month's total.
Aug 19 alone saw $2.7 billion in short liquidations, the biggest single day for short liquidations.
By the end of the month, total liquidations hit $12.65 billion.
BTC finished the month up 25.1%, from $62,794 to $78,545.
That's the strongest August performance since November 2024, and the 3rd best August in Bitcoin's history.
At one point, BTC was up 30% from the monthly low to the monthly high.
Bitcoin has now closed both July and August in green together, and historically, September has closed red every time that's happened.
Behind the move was a massive short squeeze.
From Aug 17-21 alone, traders got liquidated for $5.8 billion, almost half of the entire month's total.
Aug 19 alone saw $2.7 billion in short liquidations, the biggest single day for short liquidations.
By the end of the month, total liquidations hit $12.65 billion.
🚨 $BTC shows a high short-heavy imbalance with significant cascade risk.
Over 4x more short liq sits above price, with a large cluster near 79.2k.
Over 4x more short liq sits above price, with a large cluster near 79.2k.
$BTC Liquidation Heatmap
BTC just sold off and is moving toward the high-intensity band below.
The 3-day heatmap shows two dominant leverage clusters:
Overhead: dense short liquidity around $80,000 – $81,500
Below: a bright long-liquidation pocket near $77,000 – $77,500, with another stack lower around $75,500 – $76,000
The latest drop has not yet fully tagged the strongest lower band.
BTC just sold off and is moving toward the high-intensity band below.
The 3-day heatmap shows two dominant leverage clusters:
Overhead: dense short liquidity around $80,000 – $81,500
Below: a bright long-liquidation pocket near $77,000 – $77,500, with another stack lower around $75,500 – $76,000
The latest drop has not yet fully tagged the strongest lower band.
I currently give 70% odds the $BTC cycle bottom is in due to:
1. Huge breakout above 200-day MA and the downsloping trend line from cycle top.
2. High volume on the breakout.
3. Close time-proximity to a typical 12 month bear market low (it will be challenging to chop through all support levels below with just slightly over 1 month remaining for a low in a typical cycle).
I give 30% odds the bottom is NOT in because:
1. BTC formed a LOWER high (thus far).
2. No breakout above the 50-week MA.
3. The drop was only 54% from the highs.
If it breaks above $82.3K and holds it (lower high structure broken), as well as holding above the 50-week MA, I increase my odds to 80% chance the cycle low is.
This doesn’t mean we won’t get lower prices from this point forward. I think we’ll see a higher low in the coming few months.
1. Huge breakout above 200-day MA and the downsloping trend line from cycle top.
2. High volume on the breakout.
3. Close time-proximity to a typical 12 month bear market low (it will be challenging to chop through all support levels below with just slightly over 1 month remaining for a low in a typical cycle).
I give 30% odds the bottom is NOT in because:
1. BTC formed a LOWER high (thus far).
2. No breakout above the 50-week MA.
3. The drop was only 54% from the highs.
If it breaks above $82.3K and holds it (lower high structure broken), as well as holding above the 50-week MA, I increase my odds to 80% chance the cycle low is.
This doesn’t mean we won’t get lower prices from this point forward. I think we’ll see a higher low in the coming few months.
Bluechip
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If you think the $BTC bottom is in, what is your reasoning?
On the other side, if you are not convinced yet, what would you need to see?
For me WSMA 50 and 82.5k zone
On the other side, if you are not convinced yet, what would you need to see?
For me WSMA 50 and 82.5k zone
$BTC 1H Chart Analysis
The 1H structure remains under pressure. Price has stayed below the recent swing high of $81,483, with a lower high forming near the $79,400 area. Multiple Order Blocks and an FVG sit overhead as resistance.
The 1H Chart flags a bearish scenario (65%): 1H is in a confirmed downtrend, with price below EMA20 and EMA50, supported by bearish MACD.
As long as price remains below the nearby FVG / EMA cluster, bounce attempts stay corrective. Watch whether $76,831 holds on the next test.
The 1H structure remains under pressure. Price has stayed below the recent swing high of $81,483, with a lower high forming near the $79,400 area. Multiple Order Blocks and an FVG sit overhead as resistance.
The 1H Chart flags a bearish scenario (65%): 1H is in a confirmed downtrend, with price below EMA20 and EMA50, supported by bearish MACD.
As long as price remains below the nearby FVG / EMA cluster, bounce attempts stay corrective. Watch whether $76,831 holds on the next test.
Zcash (ZEC) started the week by liquidating short term bulls.
But there are still plenty of positions at risk on both sides, Shorts and Longs, especially from traders who opened positions over the past few days.
There are also many Long positions from the past 6 months that have not yet been liquidated.
I’m expecting a lot of volatility from $ZEC over the next few days.
That’s exactly what I’m watching for.
But there are still plenty of positions at risk on both sides, Shorts and Longs, especially from traders who opened positions over the past few days.
There are also many Long positions from the past 6 months that have not yet been liquidated.
I’m expecting a lot of volatility from $ZEC over the next few days.
That’s exactly what I’m watching for.
If you think the $BTC bottom is in, what is your reasoning?
On the other side, if you are not convinced yet, what would you need to see?
For me WSMA 50 and 82.5k zone
On the other side, if you are not convinced yet, what would you need to see?
For me WSMA 50 and 82.5k zone
There’s a very interesting divergence happening between Bitcoin, Ethereum, TRON, and Cardano when we look at active addresses.
And I don’t like interpreting this metric in isolation.
With Bitcoin, for example, onchain activity has dropped significantly compared to previous major cycles, even while price remains far above historical levels.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is being used less.
A big part of the explanation is probably holder behavior.
$BTC investors today tend to hold for longer, move coins less frequently, and increasingly use structures such as ETFs, custodians, exchanges, and Lightning.
In other words, Bitcoin may be evolving more toward a reserve asset, where onchain activity no longer grows at the same pace as price.
$ETH is showing a different picture.
Activity has accelerated again and is now close to 1 million active addresses, even with a large part of the ecosystem moving to L2s.
That tells me Ethereum remains extremely relevant as financial infrastructure.
TRON may be the most impressive case.
More than 4 million active addresses.
And here, the main driver seems much more related to payments and stablecoins, especially USDT, than simply to $TRX price speculation.
TRON has become a massive infrastructure layer for transferring digital dollars.
Cardano is the one that concerns me the most in these data.
Activity has fallen sharply since 2021 and is now at very low levels compared to the network’s own history.
Price can rise because of narratives, liquidity, and speculation.
But onchain activity tells us whether people are actually using the blockchain.
And right now, these four networks are telling very different stories.
And I don’t like interpreting this metric in isolation.
With Bitcoin, for example, onchain activity has dropped significantly compared to previous major cycles, even while price remains far above historical levels.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean Bitcoin is being used less.
A big part of the explanation is probably holder behavior.
$BTC investors today tend to hold for longer, move coins less frequently, and increasingly use structures such as ETFs, custodians, exchanges, and Lightning.
In other words, Bitcoin may be evolving more toward a reserve asset, where onchain activity no longer grows at the same pace as price.
$ETH is showing a different picture.
Activity has accelerated again and is now close to 1 million active addresses, even with a large part of the ecosystem moving to L2s.
That tells me Ethereum remains extremely relevant as financial infrastructure.
TRON may be the most impressive case.
More than 4 million active addresses.
And here, the main driver seems much more related to payments and stablecoins, especially USDT, than simply to $TRX price speculation.
TRON has become a massive infrastructure layer for transferring digital dollars.
Cardano is the one that concerns me the most in these data.
Activity has fallen sharply since 2021 and is now at very low levels compared to the network’s own history.
Price can rise because of narratives, liquidity, and speculation.
But onchain activity tells us whether people are actually using the blockchain.
And right now, these four networks are telling very different stories.
$BTC weekly.
The line I care about is the 50 week average, around 81,000. We tagged 81,255 this week, could not stay above it, and price is back under at 78,600.
A weekly close above that line changes my tone completely.
The line I care about is the 50 week average, around 81,000. We tagged 81,255 this week, could not stay above it, and price is back under at 78,600.
A weekly close above that line changes my tone completely.
Bluechip
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Bitcoin dominance is the share of all crypto money sitting in Bitcoin. It has been rising since early July and is back above its own 200 day average.
Alt season needs that falling. It is doing the opposite.
The exact number differs by site, they count different coins.
Alt season needs that falling. It is doing the opposite.
The exact number differs by site, they count different coins.
🚨Ethereum just did something it hasn’t done in 108 days.
Price has crossed back above its Realized Price a level $ETH had not reclaimed on a daily close since May 14.
If today’s close holds, it ends a 107-day stretch below the network’s aggregate cost basis.
That moves Ethereum’s aggregate holder base back into unrealized profit.
Not a price target. Not a guarantee.
A structural shift in the on-chain position of the network.
Price has crossed back above its Realized Price a level $ETH had not reclaimed on a daily close since May 14.
If today’s close holds, it ends a 107-day stretch below the network’s aggregate cost basis.
That moves Ethereum’s aggregate holder base back into unrealized profit.
Not a price target. Not a guarantee.
A structural shift in the on-chain position of the network.
$BTC Liquidation Heatmap
Liquidation Radar is mapping the two nearest high-intensity pockets.
Upper zones
$80,250 – $80,950 - intensity 100 | distance 2.68%
$81,550 – $81,650 - intensity 20
$80,050 – $80,150 - intensity 19
Lower zone
$76,250 – $76,800 - intensity 98 | distance 1.73%
The strongest leverage sits just overhead at $80.2k–$80.9k, while an almost equally dense long-liquidation cluster sits below at $76.2k–$76.8k. Price is boxed between two high-score liquidity magnets.
Heatmap for the full picture. Radar for the exact levels.
Liquidation Radar is mapping the two nearest high-intensity pockets.
Upper zones
$80,250 – $80,950 - intensity 100 | distance 2.68%
$81,550 – $81,650 - intensity 20
$80,050 – $80,150 - intensity 19
Lower zone
$76,250 – $76,800 - intensity 98 | distance 1.73%
The strongest leverage sits just overhead at $80.2k–$80.9k, while an almost equally dense long-liquidation cluster sits below at $76.2k–$76.8k. Price is boxed between two high-score liquidity magnets.
Heatmap for the full picture. Radar for the exact levels.
Yesterday 6.44 billion dollars of $BTC options expired. The max pain level, where option buyers lose out, sat around 68,000. Bitcoin stayed near 79,000 and never went there.
People quote that level like it pulls the price. It does not.
People quote that level like it pulls the price. It does not.
$BTC is back above 78,000 after spending the morning under it. Quiet Saturday, no news, it just drifted back.
Bitcoin dominance is the share of all crypto money sitting in Bitcoin. It has been rising since early July and is back above its own 200 day average.
Alt season needs that falling. It is doing the opposite.
The exact number differs by site, they count different coins.
Alt season needs that falling. It is doing the opposite.
The exact number differs by site, they count different coins.
The Realized Cap Impulse is very close to moving back into positive territory, putting the market at a critical point.
This is an important metric for understanding Bitcoin capital flows over longer timeframes, showing when onchain capital begins circulating more consistently again.
The good news is that, historically, when this metric remains positive for at least two weeks, it has often been a meaningful Bull Market signal. In other words, it suggests that new demand is entering the market and capital is once again supporting the broader market structure.
But there is an important warning.
The first recovery attempt has not always been enough. At certain points in the past, the Realized Cap Impulse acted almost like resistance. When that happened, the market generally followed one of two paths: it either formed a higher low before continuing its recovery, or experienced another leg lower, as happened in 2018.
That is why the next few days will be especially important from an onchain analysis perspective.
What we need to watch now is whether this recovery is confirmed by sustained capital flows and the metric holding above zero, or whether renewed selling pressure emerges and pushes it back below this threshold.
If it can remain positive, it would be a very constructive signal for the broader Bitcoin cycle.
This is an important metric for understanding Bitcoin capital flows over longer timeframes, showing when onchain capital begins circulating more consistently again.
The good news is that, historically, when this metric remains positive for at least two weeks, it has often been a meaningful Bull Market signal. In other words, it suggests that new demand is entering the market and capital is once again supporting the broader market structure.
But there is an important warning.
The first recovery attempt has not always been enough. At certain points in the past, the Realized Cap Impulse acted almost like resistance. When that happened, the market generally followed one of two paths: it either formed a higher low before continuing its recovery, or experienced another leg lower, as happened in 2018.
That is why the next few days will be especially important from an onchain analysis perspective.
What we need to watch now is whether this recovery is confirmed by sustained capital flows and the metric holding above zero, or whether renewed selling pressure emerges and pushes it back below this threshold.
If it can remain positive, it would be a very constructive signal for the broader Bitcoin cycle.
🚨BRUTAL: The dollar WRECKING BALL is back, and it's bad news for gold and Bitcoin.
Warsh's hawkish turn repriced September hike odds to nearly 50%, sending the DXY surging back to its 100-day moving average.
A stronger dollar means weaker dollar hedges: gold( $XAUT is down 3.2% at its worst Jackson Hole day in a decade, and $BTC is still pinned near $78,000 after this week's dump.
Warsh's hawkish turn repriced September hike odds to nearly 50%, sending the DXY surging back to its 100-day moving average.
A stronger dollar means weaker dollar hedges: gold( $XAUT is down 3.2% at its worst Jackson Hole day in a decade, and $BTC is still pinned near $78,000 after this week's dump.
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