BeyOglu - The Analyst

This is the first time in 2026 I've found a bearish divergence in GOLD ($XAU ) Chart. Gold (XAU) is forming Bearish Flag Chart pattern on 4 hour time.
There are 2 valid scenarios i found in GOLD (XAU) chart.
The one formation is ascending triangle chart pattern formation that is a bearish indication if the XAU fails to break above the resistance price of $5,100 then i can go down to $4,900 again, again make retest of the support trend line of $4,900.
If the retest resulted in fail and breakdown occurs then the price of Gold could drop to $4,700. However a rebound and breakout of $5,100 happen then Gold could extend the pump towards $5,400.

The Second Bearish Divergence in Gold Chart is Bearish Flag Formation. Bearish Flag is a technical chart pattern that signals the continuation of an existing downward trend. Think of it as a "breather" the market takes before it continues to drop further. According to this Gold could Extend the to $5,400 and then the heavy correction may start.
Here is exactly what happens when this pattern forms:
1. The Formation Phase
The pattern consists of two main parts:
The Flagpole: A sharp, nearly vertical decline in price on high volume. This shows that sellers are in total control.The Flag: After the sharp drop, the price starts to consolidate in a narrow, upward-sloping channel. This looks like a small recovery, but it is usually weak and happens on lower trading volume.
2. The Psychology
What’s happening behind the scenes is that some short-sellers are taking profits, and a few "bottom fishers" are trying to buy the dip. However, there isn't enough buying power to reverse the trend. It’s a period of consolidation rather than a true reversal.
3. The Breakout (The "Drop")
The pattern is completed when the price breaks below the lower support line of the flag.
The Result: Traders usually expect the price to fall by a distance roughly equal to the length of the initial "Flagpole."Volume: Ideally, you want to see an increase in selling volume during the breakout to confirm the move is real.
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Gold struggles to build on its gains registered over the past two days amid mixed fundamental cues.The risk-on mood undermines the safe-haven precious metal, though dovish Fed bets lend support.Concerns about the Fed’s independence further undermine the USD and favor the $XAU bulls.
Gold (XAU) recovers a major part of its early lost ground to levels below the $5,000 psychological mark and trades with modest intraday losses heading into the European session on Tuesday. The outcome of Japan's snap election on Sunday removes political uncertainty, which, along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, investors expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. This, along with concerns about the US central bank's independence, keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level in more than one week and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the US consumer inflation figures on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bears seem hesitant as Fed-driven USD weakness offsets positive risk tone
Indirect talks between the US and Iran on the future of the latter's nuclear program ended on Friday with a broad agreement to maintain a diplomatic path. This eases concerns about a military confrontation in the Middle East, boosting investors' confidence. This remains supportive of the upbeat market mood and drives flows away from the safe-haven Gold during the Asian session on Tuesday.Talks between the US and Iran on the future of the latter's nuclear program ended on Friday with a broad agreement to maintain a diplomatic path. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, described the eight hours of meetings as a good start conducted in a good atmosphere. US President Donald Trump described the talks as very good and said that another meeting would be held early this week.Meanwhile, concerns about the US Federal Reserve's independence resurfaced after Trump said on Saturday that he might sue his newly selected Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, if he didn’t lower interest rates. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last Thursday refused to rule out the possibility of a criminal investigation of Kevin Warsh if he ends up refusing to cut interest rates.This comes amid the growing acceptance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs two more times this year, with the first rate cut expected in June, and drags the US Dollar to over a one-week low. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal and limits losses. Traders now look to this week's important US macro releases for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path.A rather busy week kicks off with the release of the US monthly Retail Sales data, due later during the North American session this Tuesday. The focus, however, remains on the closely-watched US jobs report – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls report – on Wednesday and the US consumer inflation figures on Friday. These data releases will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair.The People's Bank of China reported on Saturday that the central bank continued its gold purchases for the 15th straight month in January, highlighting steady demand amid fiscal concerns in major economies. Moreover, reports suggest that Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to curb holdings of US Treasuries due to concern over concentration risk and market volatility.
Gold rejection near last week's swing high warrants caution for bulls

The overnight failure near last week's swing low warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets around the precious metal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays positive but contracts, suggesting fading momentum as the MACD line holds above the signal line and above zero. The RSI at 55 (neutral) reflects balanced conditions with a mild upside tilt.
Meanwhile, the rising trend line from $4,397.52 underpins the bullish bias, offering support near $4,819.19. Should the Gold price defend the ascending support, bulls could extend the recovery, while a close beneath it would challenge the uptrend and open room for a deeper pullback toward $4,397.52.
A re-widening positive MACD histogram would strengthen buying pressure, whereas a drift back toward the zero line would flag waning demand; RSI holding above 50 would keep buyers in control, but a slide toward 45 would tilt bias back to range.

Bitcoin Cash trades below $522 on Tuesday after multiple rejections at key resistance.Derivatives and on-chain data suggest a bearish outlook, with rising short bets and sell-side dominance.The technical outlook suggests a potential dead-cat bounce, with a downside target of $478.
Bitcoin Cash ($BCH ) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.
Derivatives and on-chain metrics signal a bearish bias
Bitcoin Cash’s derivatives data shows a bearish outlook. CoinGlass long-to-short ratio for HYPE reads 0.90 on Tuesday. This ratio, being below one, indicates bearish sentiment in the market, as more traders are betting on the asset’s price to fall.

CryptoQuant’s summary data supports the negative outlook, as BCH’s spot and futures markets show sell dominance, signaling a correction ahead.

Bitcoin Cash Price Forecast: Dead-cat bounce scenario in play
Bitcoin Cash price has been rejected multiple times at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (from the January 27 high of $603.90 to the February 6 low of $423.00) at $534.80. This level roughly coincides with the previously broken ascending trendline and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $544.70, making this a key reversal zone. 
Moreover, the current price action suggests a potential dead-cat bounce — a brief price increase within a broader downtrend — with BCH trading at $525.40 on Tuesday.
If $BCH continues its correction, it could extend the decline toward the daily support at $478.70.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 44, below its neutral level of 50 and points downward, suggesting bearish momentum is gaining traction. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are converging, increasing the likelihood of a bullish crossover. If the MACD fails to confirm a bullish crossover, it suggests bearish momentum remains intact, increasing the risk of a further correction.

However, if BCH rallies and closes above the 200-day EMA at $544.70 on a daily basis, it could extend the advance toward the immediate resistance at $564.00, its 100-day EMA.

Precious metals have been on a real rollercoaster lately, and Monday marked a turning point. Gold didn't just nudge higher—it powered through the $5,000 barrier, posting gains of up to 2.3% in a single session. This comes after a savage sell-off at the tail end of last month that wiped out huge chunks of value from record highs touched on January 29. To put it in perspective, the metal has now reclaimed roughly half of those brutal losses, buoyed by a noticeable dip in the U.S. dollar index. Traders are watching closely: can gold plant its flag firmly above $5,000? That's the million-dollar question. Holding that line isn't just about short-term bragging rights; it could signal a shift from a knee-jerk rebound to a more convincing, sustainable rally that draws in longer-term players.
China's Relentless Gold Hunger Powers the Comeback
A big part of this story unfolded over the weekend with fresh data from China. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has now been on a gold-buying spree for a staggering 15 consecutive months, a clear vote of confidence in bullion as a cornerstone of national reserves. This official demand has been a bedrock for the extended bull market that preceded the recent chaos, and it shows no signs of letting up. According to the Securities Times, a state-backed outlet, the PBOC plans to keep these purchases going—but smartly, with smaller-scale buys designed to diversify its portfolio without spiking prices or alerting speculators. It's a classic central bank move: steady accumulation to build strength quietly amid global uncertainties.
Think about the backdrop here. China isn't just hoarding gold for kicks; it's part of a broader strategy to hedge against everything from inflation to geopolitical flashpoints. With reserves heavily tilted toward U.S. dollars and Treasuries in the past, this pivot underscores how even massive economies are rethinking their asset mixes in a post-pandemic, high-debt world.

Unpacking the Wild Ride: What Caused the Meltdown?
To understand today's bounce, you have to rewind to the frenzy that got us here. Precious metals like gold and silver were on an epic tear—record-breaking highs fueled by a perfect storm. Geopolitical tensions were ratcheting up everywhere, from ongoing conflicts to trade spats. Then there was the so-called "debasement trade," where investors bet on currencies losing value thanks to endless money printing and ballooning deficits. Layer on top concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence—whispers of political pressure on interest rates added real fuel to the fire. Speculators? They went nuts, piling into leveraged positions that amplified every tick up.
But markets being markets, what goes up fast comes down hard. Late last month, it all unraveled in a historic rout. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn't mince words, blaming "unruly" trading activity out of China for the extreme volatility that spilled into last week's sessions. Picture this: massive orders flooding in from opaque offshore desks, overwhelming exchanges and triggering panic selling. It's the kind of chaos that separates the pros from the amateurs.
Wall Street's Big Bets: Banks See Bullion Bouncing Back
Despite the heart-stopping swings, the smart money isn't flinching. Major institutions are doubling down on gold's long-term story. Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Pictet Asset Management have all reiterated buy calls, pointing to enduring drivers like diversification away from U.S.-centric assets. Why? Policy uncertainties—think election cycles, fiscal cliffs, and regulatory whiplash—keep investors nervous. Elevated central bank buying worldwide acts like a safety net, mopping up supply and supporting prices. These aren't fly-by-night predictions; they're backed by deep dives into supply chains, ETF flows, and macroeconomic models.
For context, gold ETFs have seen steady inflows even amid the dip, a telltale sign that retail and institutional holders view this as a buying opportunity, not the end of the bull.
China's Strategic Retreat from U.S. Treasuries
Adding jet fuel to the gold narrative: fresh reports that Chinese regulators are cracking the whip on banks' U.S. Treasury holdings. Sources close to the matter say officials are pushing financial institutions to dial back exposure, citing "concentration risks" and wild market swings. The guidance is clear—cap new purchases of Uncle Sam's debt and trim bloated positions where they exist. It's a subtle but seismic shift, accelerating de-dollarization trends that have been simmering for years. No wonder gold looks so appealing as a neutral, time-tested store of value.
Silver Steals the Show with Even Wilder Swings
If gold's path has been bumpy, silver's been a full-on demolition derby. The white metal, often the more volatile sibling, has shed more than a third from its sky-high peak. But on Monday? It roared back with a 6% spike, blasting past $82 per ounce. Speculative momentum is the culprit here—silver draws day traders like moths to a flame, thanks to its dual role in industry (think solar panels, electronics) and as a precious metal play. That combo makes it hypersensitive to both economic data and safe-haven flows.
Looking ahead, watch for silver to mirror gold's stabilization efforts, but expect bigger gyrations. Miners' output constraints and industrial demand could provide extra upside if global growth holds.
In a nutshell, this gold push above $5K isn't happening in a vacuum. It's the intersection of smart central bank moves, institutional conviction, and raw market psychology. For investors in Karachi or anywhere else riding crypto and finance waves, this choppy action screams opportunity—but only if you play it smart with stops and diversification. The bull might be wounded, but it's far from down.

For decades, Silver ($XAG ) has been the "restless" sibling of Gold—volatile, unpredictable, and often undervalued. Historically, Silver has touched the psychological $50 mark twice: first during the Hunt Brothers' squeeze in 1980 and again during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011. On both occasions, the price collapsed shortly after. However, as we look at the economic landscape of 2025-2026, the narrative has fundamentally shifted. We are no longer looking at a speculative bubble; we are witnessing a structural revaluation.
Here is an in-depth analysis of why Silver is poised to stabilize within the $50–$60 range and stay there.
1. From Monetary Asset to Industrial Necessity
Historically, Silver moved based on "Fear"—people bought it when they didn't trust the US Dollar. Today, Silver moves based on "Function." Unlike Gold, which is mostly stored in vaults, Silver is being "consumed" at an unprecedented rate. We are in the midst of a global Green Energy Transition. Silver is the best electrical and thermal conductor on the periodic table.
Solar Energy (Photovoltaics): Every solar panel requires silver paste. As global mandates for renewable energy accelerate, the demand from this sector alone has reached nearly 200 million ounces annually.The EV Revolution: An Electric Vehicle (EV) uses almost double the amount of silver compared to an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) car for its battery management systems and sensors.
When demand is driven by industrial survival rather than just investor sentiment, the price floor rises. Companies like Tesla and Samsung cannot stop buying silver just because the price hits $50; they need it to keep their factories running.
2. The Five-Year Structural Deficit
The most compelling argument for a $50+ price stability is the supply-demand imbalance. According to the Silver Institute, the global silver market has faced a physical deficit for five consecutive years.
Mining Stagnation: Silver is primarily a "by-product" of lead, zinc, and copper mining. Therefore, miners cannot simply "turn on a tap" to produce more silver just because the price is high.Depleting Vaults: To cover the deficit, the world has been drawing from London (LBMA) and New York (COMEX) vaults. These stockpiles are at multi-decade lows.
In history, crashes occurred because there was plenty of silver available. In 2026, the "Free Float" of silver is shrinking. A commodity in a permanent deficit does not return to its old "cheap" prices.
3. Inflation-Adjusted Reality: $50 is Actually Cheap
To understand why $50–$60 is a sustainable "stable" zone, we must look at the Inflation-Adjusted Highs.
If you take the $49.45 peak of 1980 and adjust it for the cumulative inflation of the last 45 years, Silver would need to trade at over $160 per ounce today to match that value.By this metric, a $50–$60 price range is not an "all-time high"—it is actually a deep discount.
As central banks continue to grapple with fiat currency debasement, "Smart Money" (Institutional Investors) is realizing that Silver is the most undervalued asset on the planet. Once the market accepts $50 as the "Fair Value," the psychological resistance turns into a technical support floor.
4. Lessons from History: Speculation vs. Strategy
In 1980, the price was driven by two brothers (The Hunts) trying to corner the market. In 2011, it was driven by retail panic. In both cases, the "Heart" (Emotion) was leading the market.
As you noted in your previous article, "Markets are not emotional." Today’s move toward $60 is led by Clever Strategies:
Central Bank Diversification: Moving away from paper assets into physical ones.Institutional Hedging: Using Silver as a hedge against the AI-driven tech bubble.
Conclusion: The Death of the "Cheap Silver" Era
The era of $15–$25 Silver is dead. The combination of insatiable industrial demand, a chronic supply shortage, and inflationary pressure has created a "Perfect Storm." While volatility will always exist, the fundamental "Floor" has moved. For the first time in history, $50–$60 is not the ceiling; it is the new foundation of the Silver market.

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WLFI is making a second retest of descending trend line today, that is like to turned into a breakout. WLFI is trading above 0.11$ still consolidating near the Entry point for buy or long positioning. If WLFI breakout this resistance then it could Extend the pump to 0.15$.
The Relative Strength Index RSI is at 31 rebounding from the territory of oversold, aiming upward indicating that the bearish momentum is fading away. While Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD forming light reddish histogram indicating that selling pressure is getting weaker and the blue line is now aiming upward indicating that the bullish momentum ahead.

A South Korean cryptocurrency exchange apologised on Saturday after mistakenly transferring more than $40 billion worth of bitcoin to users, which briefly prompted a selloff on the platform.
Bithumb said it accidentally sent 620,000 bitcoins, currently worth more than $40 billion, and blocked trading and withdrawals for the 695 affected users within 35 minutes after the error occurred on Friday.
According to local reports, Bithumb was meant to send about 2,000 won ($1.37) to each customer as part of a promotion, but mistakenly transferred roughly 2,000 bitcoins per user.
"We sincerely apologise for the inconvenience caused to our customers due to the confusion that occurred during the distribution process of this (promotional) event," Bithumb said in a statement.
The platform said it had recovered 99.7 percent of the mistakenly sent bitcoins, and that it would use its own assets to fully cover the amount that was lost in the incident.
It admitted the error briefly caused "sharp volatility" in bitcoin prices on the platform as some recipients sold the tokens, adding that it brought the situation under control within five minutes.
Its charts showed the token's prices briefly went down 17 percent to 81.1 million won on the platform late Friday.
In a separate statement released later on Saturday, Bithumb said some trades were executed at unfavourable prices for users due to a price drop during the incident Friday, including "panic selling".
The platform said it would compensate affected customers, covering the full price difference as well as a 10-percent bonus.
It estimated losses at about 1 billion won.
The platform earlier stressed that the incident was "unrelated to external hacking or security breaches".
Bitcoin, the world's biggest cryptocurrency, sank this week, wiping out gains sparked by US President Donald Trump's presidential election victory in November 2024.
Bithumb’s Accidental 2,000 BTC Airdrop Sparks 10% Bitcoin Crash on Exchange
Reportedly, a staff member accidentally sent 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC) to hundreds of users instead of the intended 2,000 Korean Won (KRW) reward.
The error triggered an immediate wave of sell-offs, sending Bitcoin’s price on the exchange more than 10% below global market rates.

Dumpster DAO core member Definalist first reported the incident, citing a routine airdrop meant as a small incentive for platform users.
Amidst the chaos, some users reportedly benefited significantly from the mistake, selling their unexpected Bitcoin windfall at market prices.

The accidental BTC distribution has raised questions about internal controls and risk management at crypto exchanges, particularly those handling high-value digital assets.
“Crazy to think that exchanges can still do paper trading like this, even in 2026 lmao,” remarked Definalist.
Notably, however, the Bitcoin price crash was largely confined to Bithumb due to the exchange’s isolated order book. Users sold massive amounts of BTC directly on Bithumb, overwhelming its liquidity and causing a 10% local drop.
Other exchanges remained unaffected because the selling pressure didn’t enter their markets, and global arbitrage mechanisms hadn’t yet adjusted the discrepancy, keeping the impact largely contained.

Notwithstanding, the incident highlights the operational risks that can persist even in major exchanges, despite years of industry maturation. It also shows how a simple input error can cascade into substantial market disruption.
Bithumb did not immediately respond to BeInCrypto’s request for comment and has not yet released an official public statement on corrective measures.
Still, the event could influence market confidence in the short term, particularly on exchanges where operational errors have immediate price consequences.

Bitcoin ($BTC ) fall more than 10% in last retested the low of $60,000 on Friday, and rebounded, retested the daily key psychological resistance point level of $72,271 on Sunday. At the time of Writing this on Monday morning Bitcoin is trading near $71,000.
If Bitcoin keeps the recovery continue then if could extend the pump towards $74,800.
However a decline from $72,271 again could result in the fall price again to $67,300.
The Relative Strength Index RSI is at 34 lower then the level of neutral rebounded from the level of oversold last week, suggesting bearish momentum is getting slower. However, traders should remain cautious, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a bearish crossover, indicating a continuation of the downward trend.

Gold $XAU Technical Analysis and Price Forecast:
Gold is regaining its position at the start of the new week. Moving towards the Resistance the price level of $5,080-$5,100. Gold could face strong selling pressure from this resistance price level as it has already got rejected twice from this resistance trend line.
If it will get reject from this resistance point then the price could decline again towards $4,900.
However a breakout from this point can lead the price of XAU towards $5,310$.
The Relative Strength Index RSI is at at 56 higher then the level of neutral aiming straight indicating that the price could side ways on short term. While Moving Average Convergence Divergence MACD is near to make a bearish cross alarming the bulls.

Silver $XAG Technical Analysis and Price Forecast:
Silver is making a rebound after making a sharp decline to $64 on Thursday , Now XAG is regaining to its position as the head start of the week. At the time of writing this on Monday XAG is trading near $81.
If XAG keeps continue to recover then the price could extend the pump towards $90-$92. However it is an strong selling area Silver can face strong rejection from this key psychological resistance price level.
The Relative Strength Index RSI is at at 47 lower then the level of neutral. To keep continue the bullish momentum XAG should maintain the RSI above 50. However, traders should remain cautious, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator showed a bearish crossover, indicating a continuation of the downward trend.

P.S: This is not a financial Advice

"Financial markets like Crypto, Stocks, and Forex are not emotional entities; they operate on cold logic and data. While everyone enters these markets with the hope of higher earnings, often it results in significant losses, leading many to label them as 'scams'. Making decisions based purely on emotion in financial markets is a guaranteed path to consistent losses. Instead, successful participation demands a blend of calculated thought, strategic selfishness, informed greed, and sharp execution.
In these markets, physical hard work is secondary; what truly matters are clever strategies and astute decision-making. This is precisely why any professional Stock, Forex, or Crypto trader will consistently advise you: 'Only invest what you can afford to lose.' If you enter these markets with high hopes and unrealistic expectations, understand that 'hopes are often shattered here.'
We have numerous incidents where individuals, unable to bear financial losses, have tragically ended their lives because their emotional resilience wasn't strong enough. It's a grim reminder that often, people take out loans or mortgage their futures to invest, escalating the stakes far beyond what's prudent."
Real-Life Incidents of Emotional Decisions and Market Crashes:
The Dot-Com Bubble Burst (Early 2000s):
The late 1990s saw an unprecedented boom in internet-based companies. Investors, fueled by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and irrational exuberance, poured billions into tech stocks, often for companies with no clear path to profitability. People left their secure jobs to day-trade, mortgaged homes to invest in 'sure-thing' internet startups. When the bubble finally burst in 2000, trillions of dollars in market value evaporated. One prominent case was Joseph Nacchio, CEO of Qwest Communications, who was later convicted of insider trading. Many ordinary investors, who had bought into the hype, lost their entire life savings, seeing their portfolios plummet by 80-90% or more. The emotional toll was immense, as years of savings vanished overnight, leaving countless individuals financially ruined and deeply depressed.The 2008 Housing Market Crash (The Great Recession):
This crisis was largely driven by reckless lending and borrowing. Banks gave out subprime mortgages to people who couldn't afford them, while homeowners, driven by the desire for quick profits, took out loans against their homes. The belief was that housing prices would always go up. When the housing bubble burst, millions lost their homes to foreclosure, and the global financial system teetered on the brink. Richard Fuld Jr., CEO of Lehman Brothers (which famously collapsed), became a symbol of corporate greed. But beneath the corporate failures were millions of families who lost their biggest asset due to a mix of their own speculative desires and predatory lending. The emotional devastation led to widespread bankruptcies, family breakdowns, and a deep distrust in financial institutions.The Terra/Luna Crypto Collapse (May 2022):
This is a stark reminder from the crypto world. Terra (LUNA) was a cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value through an algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD (UST). Many investors were drawn in by the promise of high, seemingly "risk-free" yields (up to 20%) on their UST holdings. People, seeing the consistent returns, invested huge sums, with some even taking out loans against their homes to maximize their stake in LUNA and UST, convinced it was a 'safe haven' in crypto. However, in May 2022, UST lost its peg to the dollar, triggering a death spiral. LUNA's price, which was over $80, crashed to mere cents in days, wiping out nearly $45 billion in market value. The founder, Do Kwon, became infamous. Countless individuals lost their entire life savings. There were heartbreaking reports of people suffering severe mental health crises, and even suicides, after witnessing their financial futures crumble overnight. This incident brutally exposed the dangers of investing based on "too good to be true" promises and emotional attachment to assets.

The history of Bitcoin is not just a story of wealth; it is a saga of the most resilient asset in human history. From its humble beginnings at $0.06 to its current heights above $126,000, Bitcoin has faced dozens of "death sentences" from mainstream media and financial skeptics. Yet, after every catastrophic fall, it has risen like a phoenix, stronger and more valuable.

To understand Bitcoin’s future, one must master its past. Here is a comprehensive look at the major crashes that defined the King of Crypto.
1. The Genesis Shakeout (2010): From Cents to Pennies
In the very early days, Bitcoin had no established market value. The first real volatility occurred when the first exchanges began to emerge.
The Pump: In October 2010, Bitcoin surged from $0.06 to $0.36—a massive percentage gain in a matter of weeks.The Crash: Due to a critical "Value Overflow Bug" in the code (which allowed billions of BTC to be generated), the price plummeted back to $0.10.The Recovery: Satoshi Nakamoto and the early developers quickly fixed the code and rolled back the blockchain. This was the first major test of Bitcoin’s technical integrity.

2. The Great Mt. Gox Disaster (2011): The 94% Death
This remains the most brutal crash in terms of percentage. It was the first time the world thought the Bitcoin experiment had truly failed.
The Pump: In early 2011, Bitcoin broke the $1 barrier and went on a parabolic run to reach $32 (hitting $36 on some exchanges) by June.The Crash: Mt. Gox, which handled 70% of all Bitcoin trades, suffered a massive security breach. Panic selling ensued, and by November 2011, Bitcoin had bottomed out at $2.00.The Lesson: This was a 94% drop. While critics declared Bitcoin dead, the protocol itself remained unhacked; it was the centralized exchange that had failed.

3. The China Ban & The $1,000 Milestone (2013–2015)
In 2013, Bitcoin went mainstream, challenging the price of Gold for the first time.
The Pump: Starting the year at $13, Bitcoin skyrocketed to $1,163 by December 2013.The Crash: A double-whammy hit the market: China banned banks from handling Bitcoin, and Mt. Gox officially filed for bankruptcy after losing 850,000 BTC of its customers' funds.The Bottom: Bitcoin entered a grueling bear market, eventually hitting a low of $170 in January 2015—an 85% decline.
4. The ICO Mania & The Crypto Winter (2017–2018)
This era was defined by "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out) and the rise of thousands of new altcoins.
The Pump: Bitcoin began 2017 at $1,000 and ended the year at nearly $20,000.The Crash: Regulatory crackdowns in South Korea and Japan, combined with the bursting of the ICO bubble, led to a year-long sell-off.The Bottom: By December 2018, Bitcoin touched $3,122, representing an 84% drop. This period, known as the "Crypto Winter," wiped out thousands of weak projects.
5. The Pandemic Era & The FTX Nightmare (2020–2022)
While COVID-19 proved Bitcoin’s "Digital Gold" thesis, internal industry fraud led to the next major capitulation.
The Pump: Massive institutional inflows drove Bitcoin to two peaks in 2021, eventually reaching $69,000 in November.The Crash: The $60 billion Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapsed, followed by the shocking bankruptcy of FTX, one of the world's largest exchanges.The Bottom: Bitcoin fell to $15,500 in November 2022 (77% drop), leading many to believe that crypto was a failed "Ponzi scheme."

6. The ETF Revolution & The 2025 Correction (Recent)
The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 by BlackRock and Fidelity changed the game forever, but it didn't eliminate volatility.
The Rise: Institutional demand pushed Bitcoin past its old records, hitting a staggering All-Time High of $126,000 in 2025.The Recent Correction: In late 2025, global macroeconomic fears and a "liquidity crunch" triggered a massive flash crash. Bitcoin dropped to the $52,000–$55,000 range within 48 hours.The Comeback: As of early 2026, institutional buyers "bought the dip," and Bitcoin is once again consolidating near its highs, proving that institutional support is the new floor.
Historical Data Table: Every Major Bitcoin Bottom

Final Verdict: The Volatility Tax
The biggest lesson from Bitcoin’s history is that volatility is the price you pay for performance. Investors who panicked at $36 missed $1,000; those who sold at $1,000 missed $20,000; and those who capitulated at $20,000 missed the $100k+ era. Bitcoin’s code—decentralized and limited to 21 million—remains unchanged, regardless of the price.
P.s: Not financial advice. This article is AI written mistake can be included.
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Speculation surrounding a national Bitcoin reserve has resurfaced following Bitcoin’s recent drop toward the $60,000 level, reviving one of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign promises. Renowned financial commentator Jim Cramer discussed the possibility on CNBC, suggesting that the U.S. government may view the price decline as an opportunity to begin accumulating Bitcoin reserves. While no official confirmation has emerged, the discussion has once again shifted investor attention toward potential policy moves from the White House.
The Journey From Promises to Reality
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump positioned himself as a strong advocate for cryptocurrencies, pledging to turn the United States into the “crypto capital” of the world. However, more than a year into his presidency, the lack of concrete action has raised concerns among investors. Following Bitcoin’s sharp correction from its historic highs in 2025, the idea of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” has returned to the center of market discussion.
Cramer believes Bitcoin’s pullback to the $60,000 range could represent an attractive entry point for government accumulation. Although Washington has remained silent, analysts argue that such a move could significantly reshape global financial dynamics. If the Trump administration were to begin accumulating Bitcoin at these levels, it could influence how other nations approach cryptocurrency adoption and reserve management.
Corporate Movement and the Roots of Speculation
Despite ongoing uncertainty at the government level, the private sector continues to make notable moves. One prominent example is Binance’s decision to shift its SAFU (Secure Asset Fund for Users) initiative toward a more Bitcoin-centric structure, reducing reliance on stablecoins. These continued Bitcoin acquisitions by major exchanges affect market liquidity while reinforcing investor confidence.
Although Cramer’s remarks are not backed by official policy statements, his influence within financial markets is substantial. The contrast between Washington’s silence and the increasing activity across crypto exchanges has fueled debate over Bitcoin’s evolving role as “digital gold.” Trump’s broader vision—including centralizing Bitcoin mining operations within the U.S. and creating a diversified reserve that may include altcoins—remains ambitious, but largely unrealized for now.

Binance data shows how leveraged trading affects Bitcoin prices despite strong spot market demand, revealing the real drivers behind recent price declines.
The recent drop in Bitcoin prices, despite significant buying activity in the spot market, has caused confusion among investors. New trading data from Binance Reports helps explain why $BTC value continues to slide. The Report highlights the growing impact of leveraged trading, which has become the dominant force in price discovery, often overshadowing the influence of spot buyers.
The Role of Leverage and Derivatives in Bitcoin’s Price Movement
Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, making it a scarce asset. However, in practice, the market often trades exposure equivalent to far more than 21 million coins. This excess exposure is primarily driven by derivatives such as perpetual futures, which allow traders to control large positions using relatively small amounts of capital. As a result, derivatives markets can be significantly larger and more liquid than the spot market, where actual Bitcoin changes hands.
According to Binance data, the perpetual-to-spot volume ratio has remained consistently high. On February 3, this ratio reached 7.87, with perpetual futures volume hitting $23.51 billion compared to just $2.99 billion in spot trading volume.
Even as Bitcoin’s price declined from $75,770 to $69,700, derivatives markets accounted for the majority of trading activity. This highlights a paradox in which Bitcoin, despite its limited supply, behaves like an asset with effectively unlimited market exposure.
The key driver behind these price movements is the speed and flexibility of derivatives trading. Unlike the spot market—where Bitcoin must actually be transferred—derivatives allow traders to rapidly adjust exposure without any physical movement of the asset. Leveraged positions can be opened or closed quickly, leading to sharp price swings that affect both short-term traders and long-term holders.
Spot Buyers vs. Leveraged Traders: Who Controls Bitcoin’s Price?
Spot buyers play an important role in sustaining long-term demand for Bitcoin. However, Binance data suggests that the spot market’s influence on price is often weaker than that of leveraged derivatives trading. For example, on January 31, the futures market experienced a significant liquidity increase of $297.75 million, while the spot market’s liquidity delta was considerably smaller.
Even when spot buying pressure increased—such as on February 5, when the spot liquidity delta reached $36.66 million—Bitcoin’s price continued to decline. This indicates that the marginal trade setting the next price was driven more by futures activity than by spot transactions.
The expansion of perpetual futures trading, which enables traders to take leveraged long or short positions, has reduced the spot market’s role as the primary driver of price action. Instead, Bitcoin’s short-term price movements are increasingly dictated by the rapid rebalancing of leveraged positions, including liquidations, hedging activity, and changes in risk exposure.
The Influence of Bitcoin ETFs on Market Movements
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also influenced market dynamics, though not always in the way many investors expect. Binance data shows that ETF inflows and outflows over recent weeks have not consistently correlated with Bitcoin’s price movements. For instance, on February 2, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $561.8 million, yet Bitcoin’s price still declined afterward.
This is partly because ETF flows are processed through authorized participants and do not always result in immediate buying or selling of Bitcoin in the spot market. In many cases, ETF share creation and redemption occur in cash rather than through direct Bitcoin transactions.
While SEC-approved in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms do allow authorized participants to transact directly in Bitcoin, ETF activity still operates alongside—and often beneath—the influence of the much larger derivatives markets when it comes to short-term price action.
The Effect of Exchange Reserves on Bitcoin Liquidity
Another key factor in understanding Bitcoin’s price behavior is the level of exchange reserves. Between January 15 and February 5, Bitcoin held on exchanges increased by 29,048 BTC, or approximately 1.07%. At first glance, this could suggest increased selling pressure, as more Bitcoin becomes available on trading platforms.
However, exchange reserves only serve as a proxy for Bitcoin’s tradable supply. Not all Bitcoin held on exchanges is immediately available for sale. Moreover, even when spot supply increases, leveraged activity in derivatives markets can still dominate price movements.
As Binance data indicates, growth in exchange reserves does not necessarily translate into higher spot prices. This reinforces the complexity of Bitcoin’s market structure, where scarcity alone does not guarantee price stability. In today’s market, the speed and scale of leveraged derivatives trading frequently outweigh the impact of spot market demand, leading to continued price declines even amid strong buying interest.