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“I’ve done it many times before; this time too, I can.” This kind of statement only talks about the few times it succeeded. In the early stages, the risk is that the vast majority end up going to zero or stalling—only a very small proportion actually manage to get off the ground. When you see this kind of teaser, first think through how much loss you can realistically bear, and only then decide whether to get involved.

September really was a turning point. The CLARITY Act didn’t pass, and the Fed even raised rates, yet the market didn’t drop—it went up. #BTC closed above the 50-week moving average for two straight weeks, hitting a high around 87K. #ETH reached 2.8K and #SOL hit 120—both are new highs in the past eight months. Total crypto market capitalization has climbed back above $3 trillion.
ETF flows are the main driver. The #BTC ETF saw inflows of $2.65 billion in a single month, while the #ETH ETF brought in $832 million—making it the second-largest monthly inflow of the year. BlackRock’s push on tokenization, plus the NYSE connecting tokenized U.S. equities to 44 million crypto accounts, means institutional moves are happening faster than policy changes.
The #ETH/BTC breakout from the downtrend seen over the past five years is the most critical technical signal for altcoin season. Beyond the CLARITY Act, the SEC and CFTC are moving their own rules forward: staking tokens and buybacks are explicitly defined as non-securities, and the channels for banks to issue stablecoins are also opening up.
Policy is stuck, but regulation is progressing via detours. The market is casting votes with prices—choosing to believe in the latter.

#BTC Monthly MACD Golden Cross is different from that of altcoins; they do not mean the same thing. Bitcoin is much larger in size, so a MACD golden cross usually corresponds to a more stable trend. Altcoins are more volatile—after a golden cross, they may surge sharply, or they may quickly fall back.

The Altseason Index is currently around 61, still some distance from confirming a full altseason at 75. The MACD golden cross is a background signal, not a trigger signal.

NEAR: The current price is around 2.5. There is still a long way to go before it reaches the high point of 2024, which was above $9. If by “crash” you mean continuing to drop from the current level, then you first need to confirm that it has broken below the recent support zone. The recent low is between 2.3 and 2.4; only if it breaks that level can you talk about acceleration.
The phrase “million-dollar short positions” packages the outcome of a single trade as if it were predictive ability. There are plenty of people who make money shorting, but losing trades are rarely highlighted. Whether the win rate is high or low depends on long-term track records, not on one successful trade.
NEAR’s fundamentals have not clearly deteriorated. Its mainnet activity, developer data, and ecosystem projects are all within normal ranges. If the price weakens, a more likely reason is that the overall market’s risk appetite has fallen—capital is concentrating in mainstream coins rather than there being a problem specific to NEAR.
From a trading perspective, if NEAR breaks below 2.3, the next potential support/entry zone is around 2.0. If 2.3 holds, there may still be a rebound in the short term. The direction depends on the overall market, not NEAR alone.

The sync signals between #BTC, #ETH, and altcoins really are increasing. The ETH/BTC has broken through nearly a five-year downtrend and is about to close green for the third consecutive month. Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen to 58.5%, failing to hold above 60%. Altcoin spot trading volume has risen to nearly 4 times that of Bitcoin—its highest level since September 2025.

But the altseason index is still between 60 and 64, far from confirming a full-blown altseason at 75. This round of capital rotation is selective, concentrated on projects with revenue and real-world use cases.

The ETH monthly line’s 50-day moving average is near 2695, and the price is exactly pressing against this line. This is a long-term support reference—holding it means the structure hasn’t broken.

The ISM reading of 54.5 is slightly lower than the prior value, but it’s still in the expansion range. From 54.5 to 56, manufacturing conditions need to improve further. This process may take a few months.

If ISM truly breaks above 56, historically it has corresponded to two instances of explosive upside for #ETH. But historical patterns require conditions to align—it's not that it will automatically happen just because time has come.

#BTC Where it is now, based on the periodic table, is “bear market season.” But on-chain data shows that 82% of addresses are in profit, UTXO profitability is 80%, and supply profitability is 71%. These numbers are rare in a bear market.

A more reasonable explanation is that the market is pricing in expectations for the next cycle in advance, rather than still digesting the drawdown from the previous cycle. You can use cycles as a reference, but don’t use them to define where we are right now.

#BTC's September closing price is 83,563. Profitable addresses are 82%, profitable UTXOs are 80%, and profitable supply is 71%.

All three profitability indicators are above 70%, but they're still some distance away from the overheated range of above 90%. This means market sentiment is warm, but not yet to the point of extreme greed.

Historical data shows that in October Bitcoin indeed exhibits a strong positive return tendency. From 2010 to 2024, the monthly returns in October were almost all positive—only 2014 and 2018 were exceptions. Even more noteworthy is that October 2017, 2021, and 2023 all marked the start of, or continued, a significant uptrend, with gains of +46%, +41%, and +29%, respectively.
The backdrop for 2026 is different: the market is still in an extreme fear range, with Bitcoin trading around $58,000–$60,000. But historically, October rebounds often occur at times when market sentiment is equally bleak. If the historical patterns hold, $60,000 could be the key turning point for this cycle.

Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation isn’t without reason. Sell orders are stacked above 85,500, and every time the price reaches there, it gets blocked.

If that level gets eaten, it means the buy side is strong enough and the direction may change. If it keeps failing to break through, then just wait.

BTC and ETH rising in sync suggests this is macro-level capital flows, not an independent narrative for a particular coin.

PCE is moderate, the US dollar is falling, and risk appetite is picking up. In this kind of environment, crypto typically benefits alongside stocks and gold.

However, keep in mind that there is selling pressure above BTC at 85K to 86K, and the 2,800 level for ETH is resistance on the weekly timeframe. Just because it’s up today doesn’t mean it can break through tomorrow. Wait for confirmation.

#BTC's false breakout has been confirmed, but the claim of a “final liquidation” is coming too fast. One candlestick can’t define a trend—the real direction depends on the depth of the pullback and the strength of the support.

#BTC Whale activity is indeed moving.

From addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, an additional 41,025 BTC were added over 10 days, bringing holdings back to mid-August levels.

The institutions are cooperating as well. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $2.4 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow since October 2025. Strategy bought another 1,665 BTC at an average price of $85,681, bringing its total holdings to 847,666 BTC.

On-chain, ETFs, and corporate buying—these three fronts are all moving in the same direction.

The purpose of this kind of chart is to create a sense of urgency—so you feel that if you don’t act right away, you’ll miss out or get caught in a trap.

But #BTC’s big moves are never finished in just one day. If there really is an opportunity, it won’t disappear just because you thought about it for two more days.

First, look at the logic in the chart, then look at your own position. Don’t change your judgment based on a single sentence.

15 years of trading experience—the timetable I put together is indeed more reliable than most people’s.

But in each #BTC cycle, the time boundaries keep drifting. The 2017 top was in December, the 2021 top was in November, and the 2025 top is in October. Each time it comes earlier.

If this trend continues, this round’s frenzy and distribution could happen earlier than what’s marked on the roadmap. When the time comes, look at the price—don’t just look at the calendar.

If this table of historical cycles continues to hold, then the rest of 2026 should be a bear market, with 2027 being the start of the next cycle.

But the current price action does not support this view. #BTC rebounded 35% from the August low, while open interest denominated in coins fell by nearly 20% over the same period, indicating that this rally was not driven by leverage. This kind of structure is rarely seen in a bear market.

A more plausible explanation is that the market is pricing in the next cycle early, rather than still digesting the downside of the previous one.

Whether the cycle will continue or not is something we can only judge more clearly once 2027 has played out. Drawing a conclusion now is too early.

The trend really does have some similarities to 2023, but similarity doesn’t mean it’s the same.

That pullback in 2023 happened because #BTC had just come out of the bear market and confidence hadn’t fully recovered yet. The environment today is different—ETF funds are flowing in, and institutional participation is also higher.

So even if there is a pullback, the magnitude may be shallower than in 2023. There’s also a decent chance it could move upward directly.

#BTC Rebounded 35% from the August low. In the same period, open interest denominated in coins fell by nearly 20%, the lowest level since March.

This upswing wasn’t driven by leverage; the structure is healthier than in previous cycles.

The weekly chart closed above the May high and is on its second consecutive week of holding above the 50-week moving average. The technical picture is improving.

On Binance, there’s a coin that was said to be accumulated by CZ’s “private robot,” implying a 10x rally, and it also mentions that a similar opportunity last time rose 5x in 12 days.

But there is no verifiable source for “CZ’s private robot.”

Binance’s official statements, CZ himself, and on-chain data all do not support this claim.

It looks more like normal capital inflows being packaged as insider information.

#BTC dominance falls to around 58.5%—it didn’t hold above 60%. This is an early signal of capital flowing out.

Altcoin spot trading volume has risen to nearly 4 times that of Bitcoin. As of September 23, 72.5% of altcoins had outperformed BTC; in August, that figure was only 39%.

The direction is shifting, but it’s only just beginning.