SabTheTrader

🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧

🧧 $ETH believers, where you at? 👀🔥

Markets test your conviction.
Real communities strengthen it. 🧡

If you’ve been building, supporting, and holding through the highs & lows, this one’s for you.

🎁 $ETH Red Packet is BACK!

💬 Comment “5000”
❤️ Like + Repost
✅ Follow @Bilverse

No complicated quests.
Just a little ETH love for the community. 🧧

Still bullish? 🚀

#ETH #Bilverse #RedPacketMission

🚨 The Fed rate hike—is it already a done deal?

Now, the market’s answer is already very close:

YES.

The latest market pricing shows the probability of the Fed hiking rates by 25BP today has reached over 90%.

If it happens, the target range for the Federal Funds rate will move from:

3.50%–3.75%

to:

3.75%–4.00%

But I think what Crypto truly needs to focus on today is no longer:

“Will the Fed hike or not?”

Because when an event is already priced in by more than 90%,

what usually creates volatility is—

something unexpected.

There are three possible scenarios:

🟡 Scenario 1: Hike 25BP, but Warsh is more dovish

If the Fed tells the market:

“This is just a policy adjustment; it doesn’t mean a new sequence of consecutive hikes has started.”

Then you could see a very interesting move:

The risk assets could actually rise after the hike is implemented.

Reason is simple:

Everyone already knew they were going to hike.

⸻

🔴 Scenario 2: Hike 25BP + clearly signals more hikes ahead

This could be the real source of pressure.

Because the market won’t just be trading a single 25BP move anymore;

it becomes:

NEW HIKING CYCLE?

The U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and global liquidity will all be repriced.

That’s the real stress test for $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB.

⸻

🟢 Scenario 3: An unexpected no-hike

The probability is low, but precisely because it’s low,

if it happens, the market reaction could be the biggest.

The dollar could drop quickly,

and risk assets could see intense volatility.

⸻

So tonight,

I won’t just be watching the news headline:

“FED +25BP”

What I’m really watching are a few words from Warsh’s press conference:

ONE-OFF?

Or:

MORE HIKES AHEAD?

Because for Crypto,

one already Price In 25BP may not be the most terrifying part.

What matters most is:

Today is it just a single rate hike,

or the start of a new hiking cycle?

If the market ultimately finds that—

“It’s only this one time.”

Then tonight’s biggest surprise might not be the hike.

Instead, it could be:

After the hike, BTC still can’t drop.

👇 What do you think about tonight’s Fed?

Hike and stop once 🟢 / Keep hiking 🔴

#BTC #ETH #BNB

One evening, Lý Dương asked me:

“Mr. Bai, what does it take to be considered a good trader? Is it all about making a lot of money?”

I smiled: “Maybe not for sure.”

At the beginning, Lý Dương only had a few tens of thousands of dollars. He traded very carefully—if he made a profit, he felt happy; if he lost, he would look for the reasons. But when his account grew to a few hundred thousand dollars, everything gradually changed.

He traded more, with larger volumes. The profit of 5k—something that once made him happy—now felt too small. Losing 10k no longer led him to analyze; he only wanted to quickly make it back.

One day, he said: “Earlier, I traded to make money. Now I trade like I’m trying to prove that I’m right.”

I fell silent.

After that, Lý Dương started reducing the frequency and volume of his trades, pulling back some profits and spending more time on his life.

A few months later, he said: “I’m not making money as fast as before, but I sleep better.”

I thought, that’s the real maturity of a trader. Making money is a skill. Not letting money and emotions control you—that’s real class.

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🚨🚀z$ Sep 16｜Crypto Market Brief
$BNB 🧧
🔥 Risk-Off: Two major catalysts land back-to-back
The CLARITY Act stalled in the U.S. Senate last night at a procedural vote, and BTC briefly dipped below $75K.
Today the market enters a true macro-wait mode: the FOMC rate decision + dot plot + Powell-style policy guidance.
📉 CLARITY Act: 49–50, failed to pass Cloture
The Senate needs 60 votes; in the end, only 49 voted in favor and 50 against.
This is not a final rejection of the bill—rather, it failed to move into the next review stage. Tillis proposed reconsideration, which means there is still procedural room; but in the short term, the regulatory catalyst has clearly cooled.
📊 ETF flows suddenly weaken
On September 15, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $450M, ETH ETFs about $142M, totaling nearly $593M.
Meanwhile, on September 14, BTC ETFs had net inflows of roughly $160M—more like a fast reversal than a multi-week, ongoing capital withdrawal.
⚡ Leverage gets quickly flushed
Over the past 24 hours, about $571M+ in long positions were liquidated, with BTC and ETH longs each around $190M.
The market had previously bet that CLARITY would keep progressing; once the vote result came out, leverage positions were quickly closed in the opposite direction.
🏦 FOMC: Today is the real big test
The market is currently pricing in roughly a 93% probability of +25bp. If delivered, it would be the first rate hike since 2023.
The 10Y U.S. Treasury yield is still around 5%, and oil prices plus inflation pressures are also keeping the market focused on the dot plot and the 2026–2028 rate path.
🟢 The only big structural highlight: Circle Arc
Circle launched its Arc public mainnet today.
This is an L1 built around USDC, stablecoin payments, and RWA, aiming for sub-second finality. Traditional financial institutions—including BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, and ICE—participate in the founding validation nodes.
It’s more of a long-term infrastructure story than a short-term “rescue the market” catalyst today.
📌 Market Snapshot
BTC ≈ $75.8K
ETH ≈ $2.40K
BNB ≈ $713
SOL ≈ $97
XRP ≈ $1.29
Market Cap ≈ $2.6T
🎯 Today there’s only one question: what will the Fed say.
CLARITY has already provided the answer,
ETF flows have already sent the signal,
and now the market puts everything in the hands of the FOMC + Dot Plot + Powell.
Regulatory expectations are fading; the macro answer will be revealed tonight.
#1688家族family #蓝朋友1688俱乐部🌐 #Ethereum #FOMC

In the early hours of September 16, Beijing time, the U.S. Senate delivered its result on a procedural vote regarding the “Clarity Act” for the digital assets market. The bill failed to clear the 60-vote threshold, so it cannot move on to the next stage of formal consideration. The highly anticipated crypto regulatory legislation—one that the industry had pinned great hopes on—has, for now, been stalled.

One point needs to be clarified: this time, the bill was not directly rejected. Instead, it failed at the procedural step required to advance. The bill remains on the congressional calendar, and in theory there is still a possibility of being brought back for reconsideration. However, given the pace of congressional proceedings, the likelihood of it being enacted again within 2026 has become extremely low.

What problem the bill was originally meant to address

The bill is widely seen as a landmark piece of legislation in the crypto industry. Its core goal is to clarify regulatory authority and responsibilities: to define the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC; to lay out a federal-level compliance path for crypto exchanges and stablecoin projects; and to put an end to the long-standing situation where “regulation relies on enforcement actions and the rules are unclear.”

For a long time, the biggest pain point for the crypto industry has been vague and ambiguous rules. Institutional capital wants to enter the market but lacks a unified legal benchmark. Ordinary investors also face the risk of platform blowups and having no clear path to seek redress. Industry stakeholders from multiple sides have spent significant effort lobbying and negotiating, hoping that this bill could end the regulatory gray area.

Why it ultimately failed to clear the threshold

The bill was stalled due to irreconcilable disagreements between the two parties.

On the Democratic side, the view is that the existing version does not provide sufficient strength on consumer protection, anti-money laundering, and risk controls. They worry that the bill would give the industry overly relaxed space, sowing hidden financial risk vulnerabilities. Some Republican lawmakers, meanwhile, are concerned that expanding regulatory authority would raise compliance costs for businesses and dampen the innovative momentum of digital asset development.

Even though the legislative team revised the provisions multiple times and added patches such as interest-constraint measures for public officials, the core conflict still could not be bridged. In the end, the vote margin was clearly insufficient, and it failed to meet the Senate’s hard requirements to advance the bill.

Are you really suited to making a living by trading?
Part Four

④ Is your personality suited to your current trading style?

This is also a very important question.

Everyone’s personality is different.

Some people are very impatient.

Some people have a lot of patience.

Some people like to see results quickly.

Some people can keep their position for several weeks and feel absolutely no anxiety.

So different people are naturally suited to different trading approaches.

For example:

People who are relatively fast and make decisions quickly

may be better suited for:

Scalping / ultra-short-term trading

because you like to judge quickly, execute quickly, and exit quickly.

People with a medium-paced rhythm

may be better suited for:

Day Trading / intraday trading

You don’t need to make decisions in just seconds or minutes,

but you also don’t need to hold your J-structure positions for days or even weeks.

People who are more patient and don’t like frequent trading

may be better suited for:

Swing Trading / swing trading

You’re willing to wait,

and you can also accept “not doing anything today.”

But many people’s biggest problem is that they force themselves to do a type of trading that doesn’t match their personality at all.

A person who is extremely impatient

yet forces themselves to do swing trading for two months.

Every day they want to open the exchange to check,

every day they want to adjust,

and in the end, they turn an originally correct trade into a bad one.

Or someone who naturally thinks more slowly and likes thorough analysis

but forces themselves to do one-minute K;Scalping.

That is also very painful.

So don’t start by asking:

“Which trading style is the most profitable?”

You should ask first:

“Which trading style is the best fit for me?”

If you’re interested in trading, feel free to leave a message in the comments or join the chat room to exchange ideas—learn together and grow together!
#比特币跌至7.6万美元
#美联储加息是否已成定局

$ZEC Trump publicly stated that he will respect any interest rate decision made by the Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh tomorrow at the FOMC meeting. However, he added a half-joking remark: if Warsh chooses to cut rates, he would “respect him even more.”
Nearly everyone in the market is betting that rate hikes are already a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the real focus has shifted from “whether there will be a rate hike” to Warsh’s policy remarks after the meeting: over the rest of this year, how many more times could the Federal Reserve still raise rates? Will he overall be more dovish or more hawkish? These are the key signals that will determine the direction of the markets afterward!

Chase the wind and ride the waves, heading for the azure sea. Take the helm of a jet ski and race across the water’s surface—let the sea breeze brush through your hair, watch the splashing waves bloom at your side, cast your worries into the blue, and fully enjoy a free and passionate time.

The sea breeze drifts over your shoulders, while sunlight spills across the dining table.
With good friends at your side, the ocean view comes into view, and a full table of fresh seafood fills the air with delightful aromas.
As for the beauty of the world—it's probably this moment.

$ZEC Trump publicly stated that he will respect any interest rate decision made by the Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh tomorrow at the FOMC meeting. However, he added a half-joking remark: if Warsh chooses to cut rates, he would “respect him even more.”
Nearly everyone in the market is betting that rate hikes are already a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the real focus has shifted from “whether there will be a rate hike” to Warsh’s policy remarks after the meeting: over the rest of this year, how many more times could the Federal Reserve still raise rates? Will he overall be more dovish or more hawkish? These are the key signals that will determine the direction of the markets afterward!

$XAU Let’s review tonight’s proposed vote result for the “Clear Bill.” In the end, 49 votes were in favor, 50 against—out of 99 total voters.
Clearly, this outcome is not simply because it didn’t reach 60 votes. Ultimately, it ended in temporary failure. Evidently, the threshold for pushing the bill is still quite high, making it a tough challenge.
Currently, there are 53 seats for the Republican Party in the Senate, 45 for the Democrats, and 2 for independents. This means that if the Republicans fully back it, they could at least secure 53 support votes.
But the real outcome directly contradicts that. Not only did the Democrats oppose it, but the Republicans also were not fully united in support—4 Republicans voted against.
Now look at the chart. Before the vote results came out, the broader market had already started a sharp pullback, indicating that the main funds likely weren’t optimistic, or had already anticipated the result in advance. Right now, it’s best not to rush in early to buy the dip or short. Wait until tomorrow’s rate-hike results are released, and then enter based on the K-line trend—it’ll be better!

#美联储加息是否已成定局
$BTC Make a bold prediction. If the clear bill is not passed tonight, and then the Fed rate hike is implemented as well, things will get extremely hawkish—double bearish pressure! Bitcoin will fall straight back into the 60s. $ETH Will directly break below 2000! Bear market, start!

🚨 The Fed rate hike—is it already a done deal?

Now, the market’s answer is already very close:

YES.

The latest market pricing shows the probability of the Fed hiking rates by 25BP today has reached over 90%.

If it happens, the target range for the Federal Funds rate will move from:

3.50%–3.75%

to:

3.75%–4.00%

But I think what Crypto truly needs to focus on today is no longer:

“Will the Fed hike or not?”

Because when an event is already priced in by more than 90%,

what usually creates volatility is—

something unexpected.

There are three possible scenarios:

🟡 Scenario 1: Hike 25BP, but Warsh is more dovish

If the Fed tells the market:

“This is just a policy adjustment; it doesn’t mean a new sequence of consecutive hikes has started.”

Then you could see a very interesting move:

The risk assets could actually rise after the hike is implemented.

Reason is simple:

Everyone already knew they were going to hike.

⸻

🔴 Scenario 2: Hike 25BP + clearly signals more hikes ahead

This could be the real source of pressure.

Because the market won’t just be trading a single 25BP move anymore;

it becomes:

NEW HIKING CYCLE?

The U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and global liquidity will all be repriced.

That’s the real stress test for $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB.

⸻

🟢 Scenario 3: An unexpected no-hike

The probability is low, but precisely because it’s low,

if it happens, the market reaction could be the biggest.

The dollar could drop quickly,

and risk assets could see intense volatility.

⸻

So tonight,

I won’t just be watching the news headline:

“FED +25BP”

What I’m really watching are a few words from Warsh’s press conference:

ONE-OFF?

Or:

MORE HIKES AHEAD?

Because for Crypto,

one already Price In 25BP may not be the most terrifying part.

What matters most is:

Today is it just a single rate hike,

or the start of a new hiking cycle?

If the market ultimately finds that—

“It’s only this one time.”

Then tonight’s biggest surprise might not be the hike.

Instead, it could be:

After the hike, BTC still can’t drop.

👇 What do you think about tonight’s Fed?

Hike and stop once 🟢 / Keep hiking 🔴

#BTC #ETH #BNB