ryan.gem
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ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
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$BTC sitting at $64,630 while the 200-day MA is at $69,044
Mayer Multiple at 0.94 🟢
Below the long-term average = accumulation zone for patient players
Not financial advice but this is where smart money builds positions, not when everyone's euphoric at ATH
Mayer Multiple at 0.94 🟢
Below the long-term average = accumulation zone for patient players
Not financial advice but this is where smart money builds positions, not when everyone's euphoric at ATH
HODL Wave snapshot 📊
Who's holding $BTC and for how long? Fresh data drop as of Aug 18, 2026.
This chart shows the distribution of coins by age — basically tells you if weak hands are shaking out or if long-term holders are accumulating.
Watch for:
• Younger coins spiking = retail panic or whale distribution
• Older coins growing = conviction building, supply tightening
If you're not tracking HODL Waves, you're flying blind on market structure.
Who's holding $BTC and for how long? Fresh data drop as of Aug 18, 2026.
This chart shows the distribution of coins by age — basically tells you if weak hands are shaking out or if long-term holders are accumulating.
Watch for:
• Younger coins spiking = retail panic or whale distribution
• Older coins growing = conviction building, supply tightening
If you're not tracking HODL Waves, you're flying blind on market structure.
$BTC sitting at $64,132 while the 100-week MA is at $88,773.
Price/MA ratio: 0.72
Historically, when $BTC trades below the 100w MA, it's been a generational accumulation zone. We're 28% below that key level right now.
If you're not stacking here, you're probably gonna regret it in 12 months.
Price/MA ratio: 0.72
Historically, when $BTC trades below the 100w MA, it's been a generational accumulation zone. We're 28% below that key level right now.
If you're not stacking here, you're probably gonna regret it in 12 months.
Net capital outflow of $63B in 2026? That's the realized cap talking.
If this holds, we're looking at distribution phase vibes. Institutions rotating out? Retail exhausted? Or just consolidation before the next leg.
Watch realized cap closely. When inflows flip positive again, that's your signal.
$BTC
If this holds, we're looking at distribution phase vibes. Institutions rotating out? Retail exhausted? Or just consolidation before the next leg.
Watch realized cap closely. When inflows flip positive again, that's your signal.
$BTC
Most F&O traders are getting wrecked on taxes without even knowing it.
You're probably paying 30% flat on every rupee of profit. Wrong.
F&O gains = business income. That means:
• Taxed at slab rates (not flat 30%)
• You can deduct expenses
• Carry forward losses
Stop overpaying. Know the rules or get rekt by the taxman.
Full breakdown with @CoinDCX
You're probably paying 30% flat on every rupee of profit. Wrong.
F&O gains = business income. That means:
• Taxed at slab rates (not flat 30%)
• You can deduct expenses
• Carry forward losses
Stop overpaying. Know the rules or get rekt by the taxman.
Full breakdown with @CoinDCX
Mean tx fees today: $0.24 / 367 sats
Mempool still breathing easy. No fee wars = network's not stressed. Good for retail onboarding, bad for miner revenue compression.
If you're batching withdrawals or consolidating UTXOs, now's the time. Fees this low won't last forever when the next hype cycle kicks in.
Mempool still breathing easy. No fee wars = network's not stressed. Good for retail onboarding, bad for miner revenue compression.
If you're batching withdrawals or consolidating UTXOs, now's the time. Fees this low won't last forever when the next hype cycle kicks in.
Monthly $BTC chart screaming face-melter incoming.
Don't need 50 indicators to see it. Price structure, momentum, macro liquidity all lining up.
If you're still sitting in stables waiting for "the dip" — you're ngmi. This is the dip.
Don't need 50 indicators to see it. Price structure, momentum, macro liquidity all lining up.
If you're still sitting in stables waiting for "the dip" — you're ngmi. This is the dip.
$BTC sitting at $64,338 after a choppy 24hr run.
High: $64,551
Low: $62,652
That's a ~$1,900 range. Not exactly screaming conviction either way.
Watch for a clean break above $64.5k or a retest of $62.6k support. Range-bound until proven otherwise.
High: $64,551
Low: $62,652
That's a ~$1,900 range. Not exactly screaming conviction either way.
Watch for a clean break above $64.5k or a retest of $62.6k support. Range-bound until proven otherwise.
$BTC sitting at $64,306 on Aug 17, 2026.
Log linear scale showing macro structure holding. Price action still respecting key levels from previous cycles.
Watch for confirmation above $65k - that's where real breakout momentum starts. Below $63k and we're back in chop zone.
NFA but the chart doesn't lie.
Log linear scale showing macro structure holding. Price action still respecting key levels from previous cycles.
Watch for confirmation above $65k - that's where real breakout momentum starts. Below $63k and we're back in chop zone.
NFA but the chart doesn't lie.
$BTC sitting at $63,838 while realized price is only $52,642
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above breakeven for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.98 signals we're still trading below historical realized cost trends.
Translation: Market isn't overheated. Plenty of room to run if macro cooperates. This is accumulation zone behavior, not distribution.
Data: Aug 17, 2026
MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above breakeven for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.
Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.98 signals we're still trading below historical realized cost trends.
Translation: Market isn't overheated. Plenty of room to run if macro cooperates. This is accumulation zone behavior, not distribution.
Data: Aug 17, 2026
$BTC MVRV sitting at 1.20 🟢
Still early. Not overheated. Plenty of room to run before we hit euphoria levels.
For context: MVRV above 3.5 = top territory. Below 1.0 = accumulation zone.
We're in that sweet spot where smart money loads and retail hasn't FOMO'd yet.
Still early. Not overheated. Plenty of room to run before we hit euphoria levels.
For context: MVRV above 3.5 = top territory. Below 1.0 = accumulation zone.
We're in that sweet spot where smart money loads and retail hasn't FOMO'd yet.
4-year $BTC ROI check:
$23,340 → $63,485
172% gain
Still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile. Zoom out, stay patient, stack sats.
$23,340 → $63,485
172% gain
Still outperforming most tradfi assets by a mile. Zoom out, stay patient, stack sats.
Still holding the view that $ETH could test ~$2200. When and how? Depends on $BTC (check the chart).
Macro bottom probability for $ETH sits at 60%, with potential confirmation in 2026 (above $2500). For $BTC, I'm less confident—wouldn't be surprised by a new low sub-$58k if we get a fall correction. Potential bottom zone: $52k-$58k. Bottom probability for $BTC: 45%. (Based on sentiment, technicals, volume, history, on-chain data, etc.)
Last cycle I called $BTC wouldn't break $150k (was right, my target was $135k-$140k for the top). Next cycle? $BTC likely won't pass $160k, while $ETH could mirror $BTC's 2023-2025 run and hit $12k-$15k.
My positioning: For the first time since 2016, $BTC is NOT #1 in my bear market portfolio—~40% is in $ETH instead. My thesis is simple: utility coins (the few that matter) will outperform $BTC in the coming years, similar to how the S&P500 crushed Gold from 1980-2000 when tech took off. I'd rather be early than late on this trend—and capitalize if I'm right.
As always, I put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Invest balanced, match your risk profile.
Macro bottom probability for $ETH sits at 60%, with potential confirmation in 2026 (above $2500). For $BTC, I'm less confident—wouldn't be surprised by a new low sub-$58k if we get a fall correction. Potential bottom zone: $52k-$58k. Bottom probability for $BTC: 45%. (Based on sentiment, technicals, volume, history, on-chain data, etc.)
Last cycle I called $BTC wouldn't break $150k (was right, my target was $135k-$140k for the top). Next cycle? $BTC likely won't pass $160k, while $ETH could mirror $BTC's 2023-2025 run and hit $12k-$15k.
My positioning: For the first time since 2016, $BTC is NOT #1 in my bear market portfolio—~40% is in $ETH instead. My thesis is simple: utility coins (the few that matter) will outperform $BTC in the coming years, similar to how the S&P500 crushed Gold from 1980-2000 when tech took off. I'd rather be early than late on this trend—and capitalize if I'm right.
As always, I put my money where my mouth is. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. Invest balanced, match your risk profile.
Log-log chart showing $BTC price history.
The pattern is clear—each cycle pushes higher lows and higher highs. We're still in a macro uptrend despite the noise.
Zoom out. Stay patient. The structure hasn't broken.
The pattern is clear—each cycle pushes higher lows and higher highs. We're still in a macro uptrend despite the noise.
Zoom out. Stay patient. The structure hasn't broken.
Missed your ITR deadline? Your tax bill doesn't pause. It grows. Every single month.
30% tax on your crypto gains was already due. Now interest starts stacking on top of it, and the ITD can already see your trades through your AIS.
Here's what actually happens next 👇
30% tax on your crypto gains was already due. Now interest starts stacking on top of it, and the ITD can already see your trades through your AIS.
Here's what actually happens next 👇
SPX vs Gold ratio hitting 1.84 by July 2026
$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz
This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:
• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both
Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.
Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.
$SPX projected at 7,481
Gold at $4,073/oz
This ratio compression tells you everything about where smart money is rotating. When equities only trade at less than 2x gold, it's historically meant either:
• Stocks are getting crushed
• Gold is ripping on macro fear
• Or both
Right now we're at ~5.5. A drop to 1.84 means either equities bleed 65% or gold 3x's. Reality? Probably somewhere in between with heavy rotation into hard assets.
Watch this ratio. It's a better macro signal than most talking heads will admit.
$BTC spent 2,159 days grinding between $10k-$100k. That's almost 6 years of pure consolidation before breaking six figures.
Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.
Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.
Now we're only 217 days into the $100k-$1M range. If history rhymes, we're barely 10% through this cycle's price discovery phase.
Most people still think $BTC is "too expensive" at $100k. They said the same thing at $10k. Pattern recognition is free alpha.
62% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years
12.48M coins locked up by long-term holders
7.59M actively circulating
This is peak conviction. When supply is this tight and HODLers refuse to sell, even small demand shocks send price vertical.
The longer coins stay dormant, the more violent the next breakout.
12.48M coins locked up by long-term holders
7.59M actively circulating
This is peak conviction. When supply is this tight and HODLers refuse to sell, even small demand shocks send price vertical.
The longer coins stay dormant, the more violent the next breakout.
$BTC at $63,272 on Aug 16, 2026.
Mayer Multiple: 0.91
Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.
Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.
#MayerMultiple
Mayer Multiple: 0.91
Below 1.0 = historically undervalued territory. If you're not accumulating here, you're ngmi. This is where smart money loads bags before the next leg up.
Price 9% below 200-day MA. Screams discount.
#MayerMultiple
$BTC epoch flip just printed red.
Last epoch close: $64,990
Current: $62,914
-3% drawdown
Not catastrophic, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for support holds or further bleed into next epoch. Macro still bullish but short-term pain is real.
Last epoch close: $64,990
Current: $62,914
-3% drawdown
Not catastrophic, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for support holds or further bleed into next epoch. Macro still bullish but short-term pain is real.
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