查理-Charlie

Two pancakes $ETH this morning considered a rebound short; wait for around 2500 for another opportunity

After rebounding into 2495—2505, if the 15-minute line closes back below 2495, consider going short at 2490—2495: stop loss 2522. First look at 2465; if it breaks, then look at 2440. After confirmation that the price is already below the entry range, do not adjust the price lower

Earlier, from around 2460, it rebounded; going up only reached 2516, then it fell back below 2500. Just now, a complete 15-minute bearish candle dropped more than twenty dollars. The short-term trend is still weak, but before around 2460 there was buying interest; the first target has been reached—so first take partial profits

If, before entering, the hourly line closes above 2520, this short setup is invalidated

Huangmao is starting to talk about ending the war. This market rebound is worth watching a bit higher.

According to BlockBeats, Trump said the Iran war could end either before the midterm elections or immediately after the elections. He also said Iran is very eager to reach an agreement. There is currently no formal ceasefire, but the market will likely price in the expectation in advance, and it may not wait until the agreement is signed before stocks rise.

This news is bullish for Big Coin, Big Coin #2.

As expectations for a ceasefire heat up, it may ease concerns about energy supply, reduce the pressure of oil prices on inflation, and make investors more willing to buy risk assets. In the next one or two days, the bias is to look for a rebound: Big Coin first targets regaining 78,000, then 79,000; Big Coin #2, $ETH , looks back toward 2,500–2,550.

The entry condition for Big Coin at $BTC is set at 77,000: a 15-minute candle closes above that level. Then, after a pullback, if it holds, consider going long in the 77,000–77,100 range. Set a stop loss at 76,400, with targets at 78,000 and 79,000. If it breaks through and then surges without allowing a retest, cancel the entry.

What’s being traded here is a rebound driven by the ceasefire expectation. If the message is denied by Iran, or if tensions escalate further, long positions are likely to get hurt, and the stop loss at 76,400 cannot be moved lower.

Big pancake $BTC is still consolidating around 77.0k; it bounced back to around 77,500 and then fell again. For now, we’ll trade within the range—on the short term, it favors a rebound and then a sell.

Up top, look at resistance at 77,450–77,550; support is at 77,000–77,100. When price rebounds into the resistance zone, and the 15-minute line closes back below 77,450, consider shorting at 77,380–77,450 with a stop loss at 77,720.

The first target is 77,100. Once it’s hit, close part; the rest can look toward 76,900. There has been prior demand/support below, so for now we won’t set the target too far.

This plan is valid until 12:00 noon today. If, one hour before entry, the hourly candle closes above 77,700, cancel the short. If it drops directly without giving a rebound, and it doesn’t move the entry price lower, don’t adjust the entry downward.

Morning, on the weekend there are two things to watch

One is the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that the Gulf country and Iran’s foreign minister plan to meet in Oman on September 14 to discuss temporary shipping arrangements. If it really helps ease the traffic jam, it’s good for oil prices and risk assets—but right now they’re only preparing to talk; they haven’t agreed yet

The other is a new draft of the CLARITY Act. On paper it’s a decentralized exchange agreement, but in practice it’s controlled by someone, and it may also be brought under CFTC regulation. The vote that’s due on the 15th is a procedural vote. It needs 60 votes to move the review forward—it won’t turn into law the same day

Bigger target: $BTC — around 77,200 in the morning. In recent hours, the hourly-line rebound high has been falling all the way down. For the short term, I’m still biased bearish. Wait in the morning for a rebound to 77,500–77,700; after a 15-minute close back below 77,500, consider shorting at 77,400–77,500, with a stop-loss at 77,900 and targets at 76,800 and 76,100

If the hourly chart closes above 77,900 before entering, the plan is cancelled. The plan runs until 12:00 noon today. Over the weekend, especially watch for negotiation news. If there’s any real progress, this bearish view will have to be reconsidered

#CLARITY法案修订拟规范非DeFi控制方

CPI is running hot. $BTC was pulled back to around 78,000; if you only look at the message and go short, you can easily get burned.

US August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, and core CPI rose 0.3%, both higher than the expected 0.2%. Inflation cooling has been less smooth, rate-hike concerns are heating up, which is bearish for BTC. However, after dipping to 76001 the market quickly rebounded and already touched 78160—so you can’t just open a short position solely based on the two words “bearish news.”

For the short term, consider a pullback to 77600–77700, then go long with small size after it holds. Stop loss: 77380. First look at 78150; if it breaks through, then target 78500.

If the 15-minute candle closes below 77600, and then the retest of 77600–77700 fails to reclaim the level, consider going short again. Stop loss: 77900. Targets: 77200 and 76800.

#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息

No, I’m saying—hasn’t Biden already stepped down?

Why are there still so many people buying his son’s coin?

Basically, if you buy $TRUMP you might still get a chance to go to the White House and even have dinner with that blond guy. What use is this Biden son’s coin?

September 8 morning news report, and this Harmony item really caught me off guard: the public chain is getting shut down, and they’re switching to making AI videos? 😂

The team proposed migrating ONE to Ethereum. The reasons include AI agents and the security threats posed by state-level attackers. It’s still only a proposal for now, but users have already been reminded to exit their smart contracts by September 10. LPs, multisigs, and things like that can’t be automatically migrated. And for all the fans who have assets in there—remember to check the official announcements.

There’s also follow-up on the Liquid side. Previously, about 4,000 BTC/"big pancakes" ($BTC ) was moved out—worth roughly $320 million. The other party now says that after they fix the vulnerability, they’ll return most of it. Don’t treat it as solved until the money comes back. The issue is on Liquid’s sidechain—don’t spread it as if the big pancake mainnet was hacked.

The market is also not very comfortable. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin fell about 1.5 percentage points, Ethereum fell by $ETH 1.3 percentage points, and $SOL fell 2.5 percentage points. Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, US stocks and spot ETFs resume trading. I’m more interested in whether buy-side demand can come back after the holiday ends.

$SOL You can try to look for a rebound short. It dropped 2.3 points in one day. The area around 105 used to hold up, but now it has broken below it. Early in the morning the rebound reached 104.43 and was sold down again; the trend is weak.

Short around 104.30–104.80, with a stop-loss at 106.20. Below, 102.96 is the near-term support; if it breaks, the targets are 101.20 and then 99.50.

Hold this trade for one or two days. Take partial profit at 101.20, and the rest looks toward 99.50. Since 103.4 is too close to the prior low, wait for a rebound before entering; the stop-loss and potential profit space will be more appropriate. If there’s no entry level, then forget it.

$LINK surged nearly 9 points in a day, and the most recent 4-hour trading volume was about 6 times the previous candle’s, much stronger than Bitcoin.

The collaboration with Bottomline a few days ago was considered bullish, but the news has already been out for several days. In the short term, we’re still watching whether it can continue rising after the volume expansion.

I’m leaning toward buying on a pullback to 12.80—12.95, with a stop loss at 12.35. On the upside, first watch the 13.35 resistance; after breaking through, targets are 13.80 and 14.40.

This trade is meant to be held for one or two days. Take partial profit at 13.80 first, and let the rest run toward 14.40. If it drops to the stop loss, exit—don’t keep averaging down.

Don't forget one thing today: Big Pancake $BTC —U.S. Labor Day means U.S. stocks and spot ETFs are closed.

Last Thursday and Friday, ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $905.4 million. That’s a pretty solid amount of buying, but today we won’t get their normal opening session.

Looking at the hourly chart, price dipped below 79,233 and then bounced back to around 79,900, but the 80,100–80,200 area still can’t be broken through repeatedly. My feeling is to treat today as range-bound first; the ETF inflow news alone isn’t enough for me to call for a breakout directly.

For the short term, I’m leaning toward a rebound short: if it reaches 80,050–80,150, wait for a 15-minute close back below 80,000 before entering. Stop loss at 80,350. First target 79,650, then 79,300.

If the 1-hour chart closes directly above 80,200, then this short setup is canceled. Holiday wicks that pop up and then get squeezed back down are annoying—wait for the candle close before acting.

Spot $XRP ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive weeks, totaling $1.68 billion.

Sounds pretty impressive, but this week it only brought in $19 million, and on Friday it was literally zero. The price also played along, hovering around 1.41 with little movement 😂

It just dipped to a low of 1.3963 and then rebounded. For short-term longs, enter around 1.408–1.412, stop loss at 1.398, first target 1.422, and if it breaks through, then look at 1.432.

If the 15-minute chart breaks above 1.433 on strong volume, keep looking for 1.445. If the 1-hour candle closes below 1.400, this spike is basically invalid, and the long should be closed immediately.

No rest for the weekend, the U.S. and Iran have escalated again, and Bitcoin $BTC has also fallen back below 80k.

This morning the U.S. military confirmed strikes on 3 Iranian oil tankers, and Iran then warned that attacks on U.S. warships could continue to expand. Trump is still pressing for rate cuts, but after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls came out, the market has already raised the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60%.

However, on Friday spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw a net inflow of $174.6 million, marking the 3rd straight day of inflows, though that was 76 million less than the previous day. In plain terms, there are buyers, but selling pressure above 80k is stronger.

My short-term trade: short at 79950—80150, stop loss 80450, initial target 79500, and if that breaks, look for 78800

If the 1-hour chart holds above 80200, this trade is invalid; if it retests 80000, consider going long again, target 80700. Weekend news can easily cause sudden wicks, so keep your stop loss in place and don’t force it.

BTC 15-minute trading strategy

$BTC is currently around 79600. Today it quickly dropped from around 81300 to around 78800, then has been consolidating in the 79300 to 79800 range. In the short term, don’t treat this rebound as a confirmed turn stronger yet. The key is whether 80000 can be reclaimed.

If 15-minute price action moves back above 80000 and a retest of 79800–79900 can hold, you can consider going long, first targeting 80300–80500, and if volume continues to expand, then 80800.

On the downside, first watch 79200–79300. If that breaks and the rebound cannot reclaim it, in the short term you can follow the move lower toward 78800–79000. If the low of the day breaks again, the next level to watch is 78400–78600.

Right now 79500 to 79800 is the middle range, so I would trade less here. In a move like today’s, waiting for 80000 to be confirmed reclaimed, or waiting for 79200 to fail, is easier to handle than guessing direction in the middle.

Personal market analysis, not investment advice.

For this BTC move $BTC , I’m leaning bearish on the bounce. If it can’t reclaim 80k, I’ll first trade it as weak.

Last night, U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far above the expected 53,000. Right after the data came out, BTC dropped as much as about 2.5% in one hour, falling from around 81.3k to 79.1k. With employment still so strong, the market naturally worries that the Fed won’t be in a hurry to cut rates.

The orange-haired guy then posted urging the Fed to cut rates, and even threatened to stop doing business with countries that run trade deficits. Pushing for rate cuts is normally good news for the crypto market, but this was just talk, not an actual Fed cut. The trade threat in the second half also wasn’t welcomed by the market, so after bouncing for half a day, BTC still couldn’t reclaim 80k.

Reference levels

79,850—80,050: enter short in batches
Stop loss: 80,520
Target 1: 79,350, take half off there first
Target 2: 78,800

If price doesn’t bounce and instead breaks below 79,350 first, cancel this trade. If 80,520 gets hit, admit the mistake. Don’t turn a short-term trade into long-term faith haha

Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $731 million in a single day, and Trump is still pushing for rate cuts—so why has the market still pulled back?

That ETF inflow corresponded to September 3 in U.S. Eastern Time. The nonfarm payrolls report released afterward showed 162,000 new jobs, while expectations were only 53,000. Employment was much stronger than expected, so it’s not easy to rely on this data to get rate cuts. Money buying in one day doesn’t mean prices can only go up afterward.

Trump’s latest post demanded that the Federal Reserve cut rates, otherwise he would stop doing business with countries that have trade surpluses with the U.S. Pushing for rate cuts while also threatening trade—this really shouldn’t be read only from the pleasant-sounding part 😂 No specific implementation measures have been announced yet.

For the short term, I lean bearish on a rebound. The Bitcoin $BTC 8w has not yet been reclaimed. My plan is to short on a rebound to 79,900–80,100, with a stop loss at 80,400. First target is 79,200; take half off there. For the rest, look at 78,700 and move the stop loss to the entry average price.

This trade will only be one round. Cancel any unfilled limit orders at 4:00 a.m. Beijing time. If price drops to 79,200 before entry, cancel the plan as well. If 80,400 gets hit, I’ll accept being wrong and won’t add to the short.

Two pancakes $ETH This afternoon it shot up to 2547, then pulled back to around 2514 and bounced back again. Right now I’m leaning long, and I want to do a pullback-and-rebound setup.

Go long in batches at 2518–2522, with a stop loss at 2508. First watch 2542—if it reaches there, take half off. The rest is aiming for 2560, with the stop moved up to the entry average. If it breaks below 2508, admit the mistake—don’t average down.

Tonight Beijing time at 20:30 is Non-Farm Payrolls. I’ll only hold this trade until 20:15; at that time, cancel any unfilled orders and close the remaining position. After the data comes out, reassess—don’t keep using these same entry/exit levels!

9.4 Morning News — This rebound early today is even stronger than $XRP versus two pancakes. In the past 24 hours, it’s up about 7.6 points. Big BTC $BTC and pancake #2 $ETH are both up more than 5 points, and BNB is also up 5.5 points.

Last night, Waller said that if inflation continues to cool, September can keep interest rates unchanged. The market’s worries about a rate hike eased a bit, but this is conditional support for not hiking—there’s still a long way to go before any confirmed rate cuts.

On the ETF front, a Bloomberg analyst estimates that BlackRock’s IBIT net inflow for the day could be around $300 million. That’s certainly a strong daily figure. What I’d really like to see is whether inflows can continue over the next few days.

Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time is the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Pay particular attention to employment figures and wages. If both come in too hot, the rate-hike concerns that just eased may return. If you’re trading short-term today, make a note of this time.

Last night, Waller said that if inflation continues to cool, September can keep interest rates unchanged, and worries about rate hikes have eased a bit. The big move—$BTC —also climbed more than 5 points. I’m bullish today as well. Although 82,280 didn’t hold, when it pulled back to around 80,900 it bounced back and I feel there’s still a chance to test the recent high again.

Trade this one by buying the pullback directly: the plan is to split the position into two parts—enter one lot each at 81,200 and 81,000, with a unified stop-loss at 80,500. Take out half at 82,200; the remainder will be aimed at 82,800, and meanwhile raise the stop-loss to the average entry price. If 80,500 breaks down for real, acknowledge the mistake and do not add more on the way down.

Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, we have the Non-Farm Payrolls. This setup is only for the data window—at 20:00, cancel any unfilled pending orders and handle the remaining positions. What I want is to catch this rebound; there’s no need to also gamble on what the NFP does in the dark 😂
#美国初请失业金人数升至20.6万

The big coin $BTC is now around 77,100. In the past 24 hours it has basically been fluctuating between 76,400 and 77,700. Over the last 7 days it’s down 2 percentage points. Right now it’s neither up nor down—pushing through is not worth it.

If it pulls back to 76,500–76,700 and then, after 15 minutes, reclaims 76,700, you can go long with a small position. Set the stop-loss at 76,200. Take-profit targets are 77,400 and 77,800.

If the 15-minute candle closes below 76,400 and later the rebound can’t get back through, then consider going short. Stop-loss: 76,800. Take-profit targets: 75,500 and 75,000.

On the other hand, if the big coin breaks above 77,800 and the pullback doesn’t drop back, then wait for the pullback long setup—target 78,500. Don’t open short positions.

BTC falls back to around 78,000; ETH is still in the green. This divergence isn’t necessarily a good sign.

At the price check, BTC is about 77,950. Its 24-hour range is 77,675 to 79,250. ETH is about 2,457, with a range of 2,437 to 2,490. Tonight, fresh tensions between Iran and the U.S. are flaring up again. Brent oil rises to $92.2, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumps to 4.79%. The probability of a rate hike in September is pushed to around 65%. The logic of this chain is clear: oil prices moving up → inflation concerns intensify → rate expectations rise → BTC and ETH face pressure. However, liquidity hasn’t completely broken down. In the previous trading day, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of $216.7 million and $87.6 million respectively, and there’s still support below.

Tonight, we just wait for a 15-minute confirmation.

$BTC 15 minutes reclaim 78,300. If the pullback holds, it could open up more room. 79,250 is the first target, with the main target at 80,000. If it closes below 77,650 on the 15-minute chart, the setup is invalid.

$ETH 15 minutes close above 2,468. On a pullback, holding 2,458 to 2,462 could allow for more. 2,500 is the first target, with the main target at 2,535. If it closes below 2,437 on the 15-minute chart, the setup is invalid. If conditions aren’t met, just wait.

For market analysis only and not investment advice.