The U.S. August inflation data was released, and the macro picture and market action are extremely divergent. I don’t assume up or down—just look at the objective contradiction.
Contradiction 1: The macro is throwing cold water—so why is the market going up?
YoY CPI is 3.4%, core CPI MoM is 0.3%—above expectations. PPI YoY is 5.4%—above expectations. CME shows the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September once surged to 88.8%.
But after BTC spiked to 76,046, it rebounded more than $3,000, pushing straight toward 79,000. ETH broke above 2,600, up 8.8% in 24h. Is the bad news already exhausted, or is there another force behind the move? No conclusion yet.
Contradiction 2: Who’s buying? Liquidation data flips
Coinglass: In the past 24h, total liquidations across the whole network were 446 million, including 352 million on longs and only 90 million on shorts.
The longs were liquidated during the downward price spike, and the subsequent rally wasn’t short covering. Is it spot buying sweeping the book, or a new wave of long buyers pushing it up? The biggest mystery.
Contradiction 3: The trump card hasn’t been played yet
ETH has its own logic: Vitalik proposed the EIP-8288 proposal, and on-chain 4.82 million USDT actively bought around 2,470.
But even with the (Clarity Act), a procedural vote still requires 60 votes; the committee passed it 15:9. The regulatory trump card hasn’t landed—has the market priced it in early?
An objective technical range
The price is ranging around 79,000.
Resistance above: 79,500-80,000; 80,900-81,300.
Support below: 77,800-78,100; 77,000.
What do you think?
The FOMC meeting on September 16 is approaching; the 88.8% hike probability sharply contradicts the counter-trend candlestick move. Is this move pricing in bad news early, or is it a bull trap? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
Data comes from publicly available markets and is only for objective retrospective analysis; it does not constitute investment advice. Manage risk well.
#BTC #ETH #美联储 #CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
