If you could travel back to March 12, 2020, would you be financially free?

Financial market traders all hope to accurately predict the future trends, so if you travel back to March 12, 2020, and know that BTC will rise to 69,000 U.S. dollars after March 12, you will make a lot of money, right?

The answer is no, even if you travel back to March 12, 2020, your income will be the same as today, or even worse than today;

This involves two important theories: "Butterfly Effect" and Soros's "Reflexivity";

1.

The butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state, which is the Chinese idiom "a slight error can lead to a huge mistake". So definitely, if you travel back to March 12, 2020, and all in your entire net worth to buy BTC, not to mention your entire net worth, it may be because of your buying behavior of 1 BTC, which changes the initial variable, even if this change is the hundredth place after the decimal point, then BTC will not rise to 69,000, the initial trajectory may still be similar, but after multiple iterations, it will gradually become very different, or even because of your buying, it will continue to fall, so prediction is meaningless, unless you predict, but do not trade, that is, do not change the initial variable;

2.

Soros's reflexivity: The English word Soros uses is Reflexivity, which means that the participants' thoughts and the events they participate in are not completely independent, that is, the cognitive function and the participatory function are opposite, and they not only interact, but also mutually determine, and there is no symmetry or correspondence. I think it is not too complicated to understand the reflexivity theory, in fact, it can be summarized in one sentence: things are mutually influential. Simply put, your trading itself will affect your thinking, that is, few people can stick to their trading plan, especially when there is a huge profit;