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The impetus comes from inflation breakevens, which measure the market's expectations of future price increases by comparing regular government bonds to inflation-protected ones. The two-year breakeven has dropped below 2% (check the Daily Signal), which is the Fed's target for inflation. The longer-term breakevens have also dropped sharply in recent weeks.
Notably, both the two-year breakeven rate and WTI oil prices, which influence inflation, have slipped to levels last seen before the onset of the Iran war in late February.
This is leading some observers to question inflation concerns, Fed interest-rate-hike bets and the dollar's strength. Bullish positioning is lopsided and vulnerable to sudden unwinding that could put the Dollar Index (DXY) under pressure. Such a snap adjustment could happen on July 14, when the U.S. reports the consumer price index for June.
That’s when the deflationary impulse from falling oil prices should remind everyone that the Fed isn’t going to hike and that - if anything - the next move will be a cut," Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said in a report.
If the currency's strength is under question, then the barrier to bitcoin rising further also looks weaker. The two are known to be inversely correlated.
The Fed can't declare victory simply because gasoline prices move lower. Sticky service-sector inflation is exactly why policymakers are likely to keep rates higher for longer, even if headline CPI continues moderating," YCC Macro said on X.
Markets betting on aggressive easing may be underestimating how persistent underlying inflation really is," YCC Macro added. Stay alert
The U.S. two-year breakeven inflation rate, the financial market's expectations of price pressure in the economy over two years, has dropped below 2% for the first time since 2024.
The market is essentially saying that inflation will drop below the Fed's target in two years, which dents the case for U.S. interest-rate increases.
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Current Zone (2026): ~$75K–$80K
🔍 Market Overview
Bitcoin remains the backbone of the crypto market. Institutional inflows (especially ETFs) are tightening supply, creating a strong bullish structure.
📈 Growth Potential
Short-Term Target: $85K–$95K
Mid-Term Target (2026): $120K–$150K
Bull Case: $180K+
⚡ Key Drivers
ETF inflows (big money entering)
Limited supply (halving effect)
“Digital Gold” narrative
⚠️ Risks
Rejection near $80K resistance
Global economic pressure
🎯 Strategy
Best Move: HOLD + LONG
Entry Zone: Pullbacks
Avoid: Aggressive shorting in bullish trend
$BTC
$ETH
$TSLA
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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
South Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI (.KS11), opens new tab made an unconvincing attempt at a bounce on Wednesday after notching the fifth-biggest ​selloff in its history a day earlier
According to BNY, there are signs that ‌the retail-investor buying which has driven the index to record after record is starting to flag, particularly after the regulator suddenly sounded cool on popular leveraged ETF products.
The market climbed in morning trade but was flat before ​lunchtime in Seoul, where for months downtown has been awash with workers hunched over ​phones, trading stocks. Meanwhile in Taipei, chipmaking giant TSMC (2330.TW), opens new tab was falling.
An earnings report, ⁠after the U.S. close, from Micron will be the next guide for mood and direction ​in the sector and focus is on whether the chipmaker announces long-term supply deals and upfront ​payments from big customers.
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Morning Bid: Time to cash in your chips?
By Reuters
June 24, 202610:33 AM GMT+6Updated 1 hour ago
German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 23, 2026. REUTERS/staff/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
South Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI (.KS11), opens new tab made an unconvincing attempt at a bounce on Wednesday after notching the fifth-biggest ​selloff in its history a day earlier.
The Reuters Inside Track newsletter is your essential guide during the World Cup. Sign up here.
According to BNY, there are signs that ‌the retail-investor buying which has driven the index to record after record is starting to flag, particularly after the regulator suddenly sounded cool on popular leveraged ETF products.
Jitters over debt-funded AI spending led to sharp losses in semiconductor and other Big Tech tech stocks.
The market climbed in morning trade but was flat before ​lunchtime in Seoul, where for months downtown has been awash with workers hunched over ​phones, trading stocks. Meanwhile in Taipei, chipmaking giant TSMC (2330.TW), opens new tab was falling.
An earnings report, ⁠after the U.S. close, from Micron will be the next guide for mood and direction ​in the sector and focus is on whether the chipmaker announces long-term supply deals and upfront ​payments from big customers.
Advertisement · Scroll to continueThe threshold for disappointment could be pretty low, with positioning stretched. Bank of America's June survey of fund managers found 80% think long semiconductors is the most crowded trade, a record reading.
The same survey ​showed more than half of respondents think now is the "boom" phase of the investment cycle ​in artificial intelligence and not yet the euphoria or profit-taking, displacement or panic stages of a bursting asset-price ‌bubble.
The yen held at 160.56 in Asia as ​this week's online ⁠discussion between Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama and U.S. counterpart Scott Bessent had investors leery of possible joint intervention to support the Japanese currency.
Japan plans to examine ways to improve management of its $1.3 trillion ⁠foreign ​exchange reserves, according to a draft report reviewed by ​Reuters on Wednesday, a war chest which at the moment is believed to be mainly held as U.S. Treasuries
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