I score early crypto opportunities before they happen, then post the results. 9 years as investor, community manager and builder. Monk’s soul, predator’s focus.
Unpopular opinion: I'm not withdrawing. My coins stay on Binance!
$4.65B left in the first 9.5 hours after reopening. Sounds scary, until you see the size: the net outflow was $3.64B, about 2.1% of Binance's $171B in assets.
The numbers from Binance (Nov 1, 06:00 to 15:30 UTC): - Withdrawals: $4.649B - Deposits: $1.01B - Net outflow: ~$3.64B - Share of $171B total assets: 2.1%
All 15 networks were open by 12:36 UTC. After the first spike, withdrawals are slowing down.
Why I stay:
1. Even after past hacks, Binance is still the top-tier CEX (centralized exchange) for me, and the custodial wallet I trust most. Nothing is 100% safe, though.
2. After seeing how the team handled this hack, my trust in them, especially @CZ and @Yi He , is still high. 3. I need a balance on Binance to keep earning Alpha Points (Binance's score for Alpha airdrops, partly based on your account balance).
4. Yi He also hinted that a community rewards campaign is coming soon.
This is my personal choice, not advice. If self-custody helps you sleep better, that's a fair answer too.
47% of Binance's net outflow happened in the first 4 hours. Not the first week. The first 4 hours!
Then the fear ran out of steam. By 03:00 UTC today, hourly deposits were above withdrawals again.
The numbers (Nov 1, 06:00 to Nov 3, 04:00 UTC): - Withdrawals: $10.97B - Deposits: $5.70B - Net outflow: $5.28B, about 3.1% of the $171B Binance cited - Peak: $1.24B out in the 08:00 UTC hour on Nov 1
Look at the ratio. In the first 12 hours, every $1 withdrawn was matched by $0.23 deposited. In the last 12 hours, $0.85. I'm watching if it holds.
Crypto companies gave over $200 million to this US election. But only 1 in 100 voters cares most about crypto. Why spend so much?
Because Congress writes the rules for your crypto. US midterms are the vote halfway through a president’s term: Nov 3, all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats.
The big crypto bill already failed 49-50 in the Senate (it needs 60). The next Congress decides if it returns. In my opinion, the vote won’t tell you where $BTC goes. The rules written after it matter more.
You don’t need to trust an exchange to check your balance. Binance just made that possible for 10 tokens!
Binance has generated the full zero-knowledge proof for its Oct 31 reserve snapshot (Recovery Update #5). Holders of 10 tokens ($BTC , $ETH , USDT, $BNB , SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD, ZEC) can now check on their own computer that their balance is backed at least 1:1.
I like that the verifier is open-source, and you run it yourself. Nobody has to take Binance's word.
Don't trust, just verify! Did you run the verifier yet?
Binance withdrawal update: If you cash out crypto to a bank account, this is for you!
Crypto withdrawals were step one. A fiat withdrawal is step two: sending money from Binance to your bank account. Crypto is only useful when you can turn it into rent money.
Fiat withdrawals are now available for these currencies:
Here’s what nobody tells you about the PTAH draw: the prize is paid in the token, so its value moves while you sleep.
Day 5 results: - 11,633 cards posted. 500 won. - Each winner got 6,027 $PTAH, almost the same as Day 4 (6,066). - But the payout fell from about $19.7 to about $12.9, because the $PTAH price dropped. - Odds were about 1 in 23.
Same tokens, about a third less money.
The Day 6 pool is about $5K, so around $10 per winner if the price holds. It may not.
Still no win for me after 5 draws, but I won’t give up. The Day 6 draw is at 04:44 UTC.
Unbelievable! Withdrawing to your own wallet could soon cost you money! In one US state, it’s already law.
Illinois is the first US state with a crypto transaction tax. 0.2% of the value you move.
On Oct 30, the last day for comments, Uniswap Labs, a16z and the DeFi Education Fund pushed back hard. They asked Illinois to keep DeFi protocols, front-ends and self-custody withdrawals out of the tax, to stop taxing wallet withdrawals and bridges on asset value, and to drop the private-key records.
Binance says an attacker drained a hot wallet, and the money moved in minutes. The exchange says it found no sign that private keys leaked, and it will cover the losses from its SAFU fund and company money.
The market didn’t wait for that answer. About $1.5 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in 24 hours, roughly 84% of them longs. $BTC slipped below $77,000!
Which one hurt more for you last night: the hack, or the liquidation?
I've posted every day for 5 days to the free Ptah draw.
Here's what happened.
Day 4 results: - 12,288 cards posted, down from 23,044 on Day 3. - 500 won, 6,066 $PTAH each, about $19.7. - Odds improved from about 1 in 46 to about 1 in 25.
Almost half the people stopped posting. Their loss made everyone else's odds better.
Day 5 pool is about $7K, so around $14 per winner. Smaller prize, but still free.
I'm not a winner yet, but I won't give up. The Day 5 draw is at 04:44 UTC.
Binance fell 9 times. Came back 8 times. How about this time?
How many times the world wrote Binance off? 9 times! And 8 times $BNB rose from the ashes. Round 9 started on Oct 29, with the biggest hack in crypto history. @CZ @Yi He , you two have pulled Binance through 8 of these. I believe round 9 ends the same way. Stay strong, we've got your back. I opened my Binance account on Jan 2, 2018, and I lived through 8 of these myself. So before you panic, here's the full record: every hit, the fix, and what $BNB did next. 1/ Sep 2017: China bans ICOs and local exchanges > Binance was 2 months old, and its home market was gone. > It moved out, first to Japan, then Malta. CZ said only 18% of its users were in China. > BNB sold at $0.15 in the ICO. By Jan 1, 2018 it was $8.55. 2/ Mar 2018: The phishing attack > Hackers stole logins through fake Binance sites, then used those accounts to pump VIA in a 2-minute window. > The risk system froze withdrawals. Binance reversed the fake trades, and the hackers lost the coins they had deposited. > Binance put a $250K bounty on them. 4 months later it created SAFU, an emergency fund fed by 10% of trading fees. > BNB fell from $10.4 to $7.1 that week, and was back near $15 by late April. 3/ May 2019: The first real hack > 7,074 BTC (about $41M) left the hot wallet in one transaction. > SAFU paid it all. I was a user then, and my balance never moved. > BNB fell from $23 to $18.3 that week. The next week it broke its all-time high. 4/ Oct 2022: The BNB Chain bridge hack > A bug let an attacker mint 2M new BNB, about $570M. > Validators stopped the whole chain. About $100M got out, and no user balance was touched. > BNB slipped from $298 to $275 that week. A month later it touched $398. 5/ Dec 2022: The bank run after FTX > A month after FTX collapsed, the fear moved to Binance. $6B was pulled out in 3 days. > Binance paid it all out. At the same time, my own money was frozen on FTX, and it stayed stuck until the first payout in Feb 2025. > BNB fell from $285 to $220 that week. 6/ Jun 2023: The SEC sues > 13 charges against Binance and CZ. > BNB fell from $305 to $220 in about a week. > In May 2025 the SEC dropped the case for good. 7/ Nov 2023 to Sep 2024: Guilty plea and prison > This one was Binance's own failure: weak anti-money laundering controls. $4.3B in penalties, CZ stepped down, Richard Teng took over. > BNB fell from $272 to $224 that week. > CZ served 4 months in a US prison. While he was inside, BNB hit a new high of $720. In Oct 2025 he was pardoned. 8/ Oct 2025: The $19B crash > On Binance, USDe, wBETH and BNSOL lost their peg, and users who held them as collateral got liquidated. > Binance paid back $283M within about a day and changed how it prices that collateral. > BNB wicked to $860 in the crash. 3 days later it hit its all-time high, about $1,370. 9/ Oct 29, 2026: The biggest hack ever > Hot wallets were drained starting around 20:24 UTC. Binance's first findings: a DevOps engineer's laptop was compromised, which let the attacker into a service container to send unauthorized withdrawals. No sign of a private key leak. > Total impact: about $6.3B. About $3B is already frozen on-chain. > Binance says it will cover every loss from SAFU and company funds, and user funds are safe. Deposits and withdrawals are paused, the attacker's access is revoked, and an updated Proof of Reserves comes after the fix. > BNB wicked to $680 and sits near $710. > The fix has started. The comeback? Not written yet. Every single time, Binance paid people back, fixed the hole and came back bigger. Today it has more than 300M users. That record still doesn't make any place 100% safe. Spread your coins, and only trust official Binance accounts for updates. Scammers love weeks like this. Which one did you live through? $BTC Experience, not financial advice.
May 2019: hackers took 7,000 BTC from Binance. My balance didn't lose a single satoshi.
Today felt like deja vu, just much bigger.
At 20:24 UTC on Oct 29, billions left Binance hot wallets in minutes. My heart dropped when the alerts came in. Then I watched something I've never seen at this scale: - Tether froze 1.567B USDT - Circle froze 800M+ USDC - Ripple and Paxos froze funds too - Binance now confirms $2.54B frozen, and says that number can still grow
In about an hour, the industry moved together and locked the attacker out. Frozen stablecoins can't be moved or swapped.
Here's what nobody tells you about today's $HYPE pump today: ICE, the parent of the NYSE, tried to stop Hyperliquid first!
Earlier this year, ICE asked US regulators to rein it in.
Here's what happened today: - ICE signed a deal with trade[XYZ] to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US - Stan Druckenmiller, a legendary macro investor who almost never posts, went on X to say he's an investor and wants to use the product himself - Elon Musk quoted him with one word: "Interesting" - $HYPE jumped more than 15%, past $93
Remember when people said stablecoins would never leave the trading screen?
Visa just told the market its stablecoin settlement run rate passed $25 billion a year. That’s 10x in a year. It was about $3.5B in late 2025, around $7B by April, $20B in early September, and now $25B.
What makes it feel different: 225+ card programs, 10 blockchains, and it’s being said calmly on an earnings call. No hype. Just infrastructure.
Radar #8 update: my $PREDICT Key is in, and the sale ran about 37.6x oversubscribed.
I put in 6 BNB. I got back 5.84031 BNB and 409.75712 PREDICT Key. Only about 0.16 BNB stayed in. That sits right next to the 40x row in my article (385 $PREDICT )
What that Key is worth: - At the sale price of $0.29: about $119. - At the futures price of $1.30 (12:33 UTC): about $533.
Next steps (UTC): - Oct 30, 09:00: Alpha debut and trading. The real PREDICT arrives in the Alpha account. - Oct 30, 10:00: Binance lists PREDICT on spot: PREDICT/USDT, PREDICT/USDC and PREDICT/TRY.
Want to lock the profit now? The PREDICT perp on Binance Futures trades near $1.30. Short the same size as your Key and your result no longer depends on the price.
My numbers: cost $119, value locked $533, profit locked about $414, whether PREDICT lists at $0.60 or $2.00.
The price of the hedge: margin. At 3x you tie up about $178, and the short liquidates near $1.70 if the price rises. Keep extra margin, or the hedge can fail right when PREDICT pumps.
I am not hedging. I keep the pure allocation. At $1.30 I think the token is at fair value, so a hedge is not worth the margin for me. I want to sell into a wick at the listing time, and I will sell anyway if no wick comes.
Without a hedge, the same Key makes $127 at $0.60, $291 at $1.00, $537 at $1.60 and $701 at $2.00. Hedged, it is $414 every time. Fees and funding not included.
How much of your 6 BNB came back? Will you hedge, sell at the open, or hold?
Experience, not financial advice.
MT Lab Research
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Bullish
Radar #8 update: about 2 hours to the predict.fun Prime Sale (08:00 UTC)
Binance just announced the Alpha Points threshold: 60.
That is a low bar. More wallets can join now, even big accounts that never farmed a single day of Alpha Points. A 100k balance on Binance can walk in.
What this changes: - More wallets means more $BNB deposited, so a higher oversubscription. - More demand for BNB. It may keep rising until the sale ends. - Smaller allocation per wallet, so less profit for everyone who joins.
In my article table, the 40x and 100x rows now look more likely than the 5x and 10x rows. At 40x, a full 6 BNB keeps about $112 of PREDICT and the rest is refunded.
My call stays Join, Tier S. The money at risk is small and unused BNB comes back. But plan for a small win, not a big one.
What oversubscription do you expect: 20x, 40x or 100x?
Painful lesson: I burned 85% of my free Binance AI Pro credits with one simple prompt!
Binance gives free users 250,000 credits a month. I picked Claude Sonnet 5.5 because it's the smartest, without checking the number next to it: 2.79X. GPT 6 Luna is 0.09X.
211,629 credits gone in a single prompt.
Don't be like me. Here's how I pick a model now: - Simple task (rewrite, summary, quick question): the cheapest model - Medium task (research, comparing options): a mid-priced one - Hard task (long analysis, multi-step reasoning): the expensive one, only when the cheap one fails
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