zeroxkyle

I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on.

There are three main reasons.

1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow.

2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at the cluster level optics let the Rubin Ultra cluster hold an edge over the Rubin cluster. This holds even if Rubin Ultra's HBM nerf is a supply problem rather than a demand problem.

3. Consensus is forming that memory prices will peak within the next two quarters.

For people that want the thesis:

$GOLD.US

Looks good.

10 Lessons I've learnt from 18 months of trading equities

1. Valuations are a function of two things - EPS or Fwd P/E; you can boil any idea into one of these two - make sure which one you're betting on, and have clear invalidations for it

2. Execution makes 80% of the trade work. An idea is nothing without good execution. And the best way to execute is always using limit scale orders through certain levels. Also, NEVER cancel your limit orders, especially your stink bids

3. Selling to sidestep a dip for whatever reasons just introduces more ways to be wrong. 1 - whether the decline occurs, 2 - when to get back in, 3 - what to do with the cash when you're waiting

4. Losing money is the worst thing not because you lose money, but because you miss the next opportunity.

5. If it goes down on non-stock related reasons (i.e macro), it's usually a great buy - macro is unknowable and impossible to predict for most people, and should be treated as noise

6. Value traps are real. Time invalidations are important - if something isn't going up after a certain amount of time, you have to re-evaluate. The market is always right.

7. You should check your accounts at the frequency you trade. If you have a month long timeframe for your investment, don't check it every day.

8. Selling to remove the red P&L, and then evaluating whether to get back in, is a great way to "psychologically reset"

9. Act fast to defend your money, slow to grow your money. Most people do the opposite - slow to protect, fast to make money

10. As Jesse Livermore says, "The point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top price, but to buy or sell at the right time.

When some of my stock trading operations are given, you will notice I made my first trade… when the force of movement was so strong that it simply had to carry through.”

Wanted to give you guys clarity on my performance thus far;

Right now, my portfolio is segmented into two accounts - one for full active management, the other for cash. The reason for this is purely mental - I find it much easier to size when I know I'm not playing with "my full account".

Here are the statistics:
- Performance of both accounts, combined, 1Y: +96.85% (peaked at ~120.4%)
- Performance of both accounts, combined, 3M: +30.34% (peaked at ~117%)

And most importantly, right now, I'm actively trading 27% of my total. I find this strategy to work *really* well for me. It allows me to size without feeling emotional about it.

As for what I'm long, in order of size, it's:
RKLB > TE > CBRS > NBIS > DOCN > http://3696.HK

Trying to find more names to long. I quite like DELL and ALAB today - set some bids.

Wanted to give you guys clarity on my performance thus far;

Right now, my portfolio is segmented into two accounts - one for full active management, the other for cash. The reason for this is purely mental - I find it much easier to size when I know I'm not playing with "my full account".

Here are the statistics:
- Performance of both accounts, combined, 1Y: +96.85% (peaked at ~120.4%)
- Performance of both accounts, combined, 3M: +30.34% (peaked at ~117%)

And most importantly, right now, I'm actively trading 27% of my total. I find this strategy to work *really* well for me. It allows me to size without feeling emotional about it.

As for what I'm long, in order of size, it's:
RKLB > TE > CBRS > NBIS > DOCN > http://3696.HK

Trying to find more names to long. I quite like DELL and ALAB today - set some bids.

Thank you Binance for allowing me to post on the feed. I’m here to teach you guys how to trade - narratives & technicals.

Follow me for more updates on technical trading and narrative trading - I’ll launch my first article soon!