WHAT IF THE PROBLEM WASN’T THE ALTCOINS… BUT THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT?
For much of 2025, many people were waiting for the famous Altseason.
Bitcoin was rising.
Narratives multiplied.
New projects appeared every week.
But something was missing.
The massive rotation of capital into altcoins.
And this chart (See image ) offers an interesting clue as to why.
Look at the ISM Manufacturing PMI, an indicator that, among other things, measures the momentum of U.S. manufacturing activity.
Historically, some major phases of altcoin outperformance versus Bitcoin have coincided with an improvement in this indicator.
In 2017, the ISM bounced back strongly while the Altcoins/BTC ratio saw a spectacular explosion.
In 2021, the same thing happened: improving economic conditions and huge altcoin outperformance versus Bitcoin.
Then comes 2025.
The ISM stays below 50 for a long time, while the Altcoins/BTC ratio deteriorates sharply on the chart.
Result:
Bitcoin keeps most of the attention and capital, while many altcoins underperform.
But here’s what becomes interesting today.
Manufacturing ISM has clearly moved back above 50. In August 2026, it stood at 54.6, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector.
And the ISM for services also rebounded to 55.4, up from 54.1 in July.
This absolutely does not mean:
“ISM > 50 = guaranteed Altseason.”
That would be far too simplistic.
But it does mean that the economic backdrop shown in this chart is starting to change.
And that’s where investors need to look beyond just the price of altcoins.
Today, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the United States will release its non-farm payrolls report.
And this time, the market is paying particular attention to this figure.
📉 Previous: -23K 📈 Forecast: +56K
After an unusually weak July, economists are therefore expecting a rebound in job creation in August.
But for markets, the raw number won’t be the only thing to watch.
Markets will mainly want to know:
Is the U.S. economy starting to slow down… or is this just a temporary dip?
If job creation comes in well below the 56K expected, investors could strengthen their expectations of a Fed monetary easing.
➡️ Bond yields potentially under pressure ➡️ Potentially weaker dollar ➡️ Potentially supported gold ➡️ And Bitcoin could benefit from a more favorable environment for risk assets.
But watch out for the opposite scenario.
If the report shows an economy far stronger than expected, U.S. yields and the dollar could rise again.
And in that case, Bitcoin could face additional short-term pressure.
The context makes this release even more interesting: the market already has to deal with geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, and a Fed caught in a delicate balance between inflation and slowing employment.
So today, don’t look only at the jobs number.
Above all, watch the reaction of:
Dollar 🇺🇸 → Yields 🇺🇸 → Gold 🟡 → Bitcoin ₿
It’s this chain that could determine the next move.
🔥 The market is expecting 56K. The real question is: what happens if the number is very far from 56K?
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Asia continues to fail in pushing the $BTC price higher. $BTC is down almost $1k since we shorted. More profit coming but the fate now is in the hands of LONDO & NYC. They may attempt to push the price to sweep the highs before dumping.
🚨 540 BILLION DOLLARS ADDED TO GOLD AND SILVER IN JUST A FEW HOURS.
But the number isn’t the most important part.
What matters is why the market is buying these assets right now.
Gold and silver have just seen a new bullish move as markets continue to digest the tensions between the United States and Iran.
And behind this move, several forces are coming together.
First, geopolitics.
When war threatens trade routes, energy, and financial stability, investors naturally look for assets seen as safe havens.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of the problem.
A sustained disruption could keep oil at high levels, fuel inflationary pressures, and further complicate U.S. monetary policy.
Next, interest rates and the dollar.
Today, gold is benefiting in particular from the drop in the dollar and the decline in U.S. bond yields. Reuters reported this Thursday that gold was up more than 1%, as yields and the dollar eased. Silver was also rising.
And this is where the reading gets interesting.
Because gold doesn’t rise only because there’s a war.
It also rises because markets are starting to think about something much bigger:
what will monetary policy do if growth slows, while public debts remain enormous and geopolitical tensions persist?
That’s exactly why I’m also watching Bitcoin.
Gold, silver, and Bitcoin share one characteristic:
their supply cannot be created at will by a central bank.
But there’s a fundamental difference.
Gold is already an institutional asset thousands of years old.
Bitcoin is still in the process of carving out its place in the global financial system.
While tensions between the United States and Iran continue to shake the markets, Donald Trump has just made a statement that deserves our attention.
“ The stock market will go up. ”
In other words: according to Trump, the stock market should keep rising.
And the most interesting part is the context.
The markets have just weathered several turbulent sessions, with higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and rising bond yields.
Yet this Wednesday, U.S. stocks bounced back: the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones were all up.
But pay attention to one thing:
A Trump statement doesn’t mean the market will necessarily go up.
The market remains exposed to several risks: inflation, interest rates, oil, U.S. debt, and above all, how the conflict with Iran evolves.
And that’s precisely where Bitcoin becomes interesting.
Because if financial conditions keep easing and investors gradually regain their appetite for risk, Bitcoin could also benefit from a return of capital to risk assets.
But if geopolitical escalation triggers another surge in inflation and rates, the scenario could become much more complicated.
Trump lays out his view.
The market will, however, have to confirm it.
And you, do you think the next move will be more 📈 stocks rising + Bitcoin, or 📉 a new correction?
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Donald Trump has just reaffirmed his optimistic outlook for the markets.
And when the U.S. president talks about rising stocks, investors are bound to listen.
But the real question isn’t only: “Will the stock market go up?”
The real question is: what could fuel this increase?
Because right now, markets have to deal with several forces at the same time: geopolitical tensions, oil, interest rates, inflation, and the Fed’s decisions.
Today, Wall Street has indeed rebounded: the S&P 500 is up about 0.60%, the Nasdaq 0.50%, and the Dow Jones 0.55%.
But be careful: a green day doesn’t yet confirm a new uptrend.
And that’s exactly where Bitcoin becomes interesting.
If financial conditions ease, liquidity returns gradually, and risk appetite picks up again, Bitcoin could also benefit from this momentum.
But if rates remain high and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on inflation, the scenario could quickly turn different.
Trump can announce his vision.
The market, meanwhile, will decide.
So the next question is simple:
👉 Is this market rebound just a bounce… or the start of a new bullish move?
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