野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

Gold rose 2.36%, Micron rose 4.92%, SK Hynix rose 3.19%, while the S&P 500 was only down 0.02%. Today’s money is buying “things that get more expensive,” not buying technology growth.

Crypto stocks were lifted by the same gust of wind: MARA +5.65%, MSTR +5.26%, Coinbase +5.08%. But MSTR was up 20% yesterday and is down to just 5% today—today it surged from 108 to 127 and then back to 119, with an intra-day swing of nearly 18 points. Chasers have already taken a ride on a roller coaster.

Yesterday I said this was due to expectations of regulation; today it looks more like a bunch of money searching for “baskets that will get more expensive”—with gold, memory, and crypto stocks all being stuffed into the same basket. Mining companies’ gains were not any worse than MSTR’s, suggesting this isn’t a handful of policy-driven stocks dancing on their own, but rather the entire sector moving higher. But since the rally is so scattered, I’m not sure whether this is the start of a new trend or the rapid end of the old one.

TradingBeats pulls out an address related to an "ETH mega bull". The historical completed trades have a 100% win rate: on the evening of August 19, it opened a massive long position at an average price of $1,919, going long 25,000 ETH, and it also went long around $100 million worth of ETH simultaneously with a mysterious new address—direction, timing, and target all matched up.

But for that "100% win rate" label, the first thing I want to confirm is the sample. The focus shouldn’t be on the 100; it’s on the three words "completed trades"—positions that haven’t been closed don’t count, and the number of samples isn’t stated. That 100% figure may simply be compiled from a few well-timed closed trades.

What’s more telling is the detail: the two addresses, at the same time, in the same direction, on the same asset—this doesn’t look like two independent judgments. It looks like they share the same conclusion.

The real concern isn’t whether he’s right, but whether the market will start chasing after him. Once the "100% win rate" is spotted by follow-the-leader funds, every time he opens a position it will be amplified. At that point, will he still be able to close calmly just like now? For people who follow his trades, they might only capture a small portion of his profits—but they risk losing everything.

“Set 10 big goals” and then cut losses. This name is quite fitting—no matter how big you set the targets, leverage is the first to be unable to hold.

On August 20, he reduced his position by 1,169.625 BTC and 24,684.515 ETH short contracts. He still has 1,066 BTC and 4,632 ETH, with unrealized losses exceeding USD 2 million.

Unrealized losses aren’t the point. The point is that the act of cutting losses itself adds fuel to the market. When short positions are stopped, they must be bought back—and buying back is buying demand. In this rebound, there’s a batch of buy orders; it’s not new money coming in—it's the shorts being forced to carry the sedan themselves. The higher it rises, the more it hurts; the more it hurts, the more they buy.

He hasn’t finished exiting yet. With 1,066 BTC and 4,632 ETH still left and still sitting in unrealized losses, it suggests he’s hesitating, or he hasn’t fully admitted defeat. If the price pushes higher again, these short positions will eventually become buy pressure.

What you really need to be wary of is what comes next: once all these big shorts have been fully closed and the squeeze fuel has burned out, the price may lose momentum.

The Nasdaq is down more than 1 point; MSTR is up 20%; Coinbase is up 16%. The most important thing to pay attention to today isn’t that crypto is strong—it’s that it’s strong in a way that’s too isolated.

The money doesn’t look like it’s coming from outside the market. Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Micron, and SanDisk are all falling, while Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft are still rising—like capital is shifting within semiconductors, moving into the two crypto stocks that are most sensitive to policies. If this were a pure coin-price move, highly volatile miners like CLSK, MARA, and RIOT wouldn’t only be up by five or six points. My guess is that BTC didn’t move much; what’s rising is expectations around the SEC’s new rules and a shift in regulation.

So for anyone chasing the rally, think it through: what you’re buying now isn’t coins—it’s a story. The story may deliver a second wave; if it doesn’t, this 20% gain will become a trap laid for the next group of entrants. If the Nasdaq doesn’t turn back, these two won’t be the last to drop either.

Yesterday we were still talking about the three-layer logic behind 819. But today this address came out, and I feel like a layer was missed—possibly the very layer that should have been asked first.

A newly created address: first go long HYPE for profit-taking, then switch and go long ETH with 4x leverage. Entry average price is 1936. Now they’re holding 20,000 ETH long contracts, with an unrealized profit of over $6 million. This is what TradingBeats has monitored.

New address, HYPE first then ETH, and 4x leverage—stacked together like this, I can’t explain it with luck. Especially the move from doing HYPE first to then switching to ETH—timing is too precise, like they somehow knew the rhythm in advance.

I won’t guess who it is, and I won’t claim inside information. But this incident made me look back at that 819 line: some of that money isn’t chasing in based on the K-line—it was laid out in advance. My three-layer analysis is a script that ordinary players can see.

I won’t follow this address. But remember one thing: when they close their position, they won’t ring the bell.

Awesome — a guy who turned 88 dollars into over ten thousand dollars~~

Last night’s rebound: many people only look at the price. I saw two groups on-chain placing bets against each other.

On one side, a new address went long HYPE to take profit first, then turned around and went long ETH with 4x leverage—placing 20,000 ETH-long orders. The unrealized profit is over $6 million. The entry average price was 1936; they nailed it so precisely it doesn’t look like retail.

On the other side, a whale address, bc1qsy, took advantage of the rebound’s liquidity and sold 2,000 BTC again in the early morning—accumulating a total of 9,513 BTC sold within a month, cashing out $623.4 million.

That’s the most real snapshot of this rebound: some are running ahead with 4x leverage, while others are using the rebound to unload. In a squeeze-market, the more violently the price rises, the better the liquidity—making it easier for whales to distribute. The buy orders from short covering just happen to catch the whale’s sell orders.

So don’t just ask, “Can the rebound last?” Ask, “Has the $623.4 million of sell pressure been absorbed?” If it’s been absorbed, this rebound is just a wash. If it hasn’t, then whoever chases higher above 70,000 is the one finding the exit.

Yesterday's ETH market analysis~~~ What I'm doing is to catch this wave of daily chart rebound~~

But I didn't expect it to bounce all the way in one go, and it bounced like this

Still I sold too early

Last night’s rebound wasn’t driven by a single factor—it was three layers of things stacking on top of each other, and the beneficiaries of each layer are different.

First layer: positioning. Most directly—shorts were overcrowded. Over the past month, BTC churned below 70,000, grinding out a pile of short orders. Within just one hour last night, more than $1 billion was liquidated, the biggest liquidation wave since 2021. Forced to buy back and close, shorts became the buyers, pushing price up themselves—that’s a short squeeze, not fresh demand coming in.

Second layer: liquidity expectations. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repo operations, with the repo scale for the 10-to-30-year bucket at least doubling. Long-end yields were pushed lower, and the pricing anchor for risk assets loosened. This rally wasn’t just crypto up—risk assets broadly moved higher.

Third layer: policy. Trump’s White House met with people from Coinbase, Kraken, and Blockchain.com. Meanwhile, the SEC has also proposed new rules for the issuance of crypto assets, creating exemptions for some projects. Regulatory expectations shifted from “tightening” to “friendlier.” That’s fundamentally important for the industry’s valuations.

Where the good news shows up—just look at the bullish performance ranking: Strategy rose nearly 12%—it holds about 840,000 BTC, with a pure leveraged exposure, so if the coin goes up, it has to go up even more; Circle rose 9.4%—a stablecoin issuer; with both a friendly regulatory backdrop and looser liquidity, it has double tailwinds; Coinbase rose 9%—platform revenue tends to track trading volume; even BitMine, which holds ETH, rose 9.7%.

But let’s pour some cold water on it: BTC broke above 70,000 intraday, then closed back near 69.4k. The hallmark of a short-squeeze move is speed—it doesn’t automatically mean a trend reversal. Among the three layers, the positioning layer is a one-off; only the liquidity expectations and policy layers can be sustained. Next, there are two confirmation points: whether the Treasury’s repo can truly keep the long end suppressed, and whether the SEC’s new rules can actually be implemented. If those are delivered, the rebound can get a second wave.

I just completed a new transaction! Copy my investment portfolio with one click👇

I just completed a new transaction! Copy my investment portfolio with one click👇

MicroStrategy stocks, the circle thing flew away~~~
Did BTC and ETH, didn’t do these two~~

Gold has reached 4442—up 1.54% over the past 24 hours, just barely missing 4445. The S&P is still climbing; the Nasdaq-100 is basically flat. The US market doesn’t look like it’s in a risk-off mood.

But MSTR is down 1.23%, Coinbase is down 0.14%, and RIOT, MARA, and CLSK are all slightly lower. For assets that also don’t “rely on central banks,” gold is rising while crypto-themed stocks are pulling back.

I don’t really understand the logic behind this gold move. It’s not a crisis—US stocks aren’t down. Maybe the dollar is weakening, or expectations for real interest rates are moving lower. In any case, crypto hasn’t caught up.