LaoYao_crypto

Durov pulled a wild stunt this June
—renaming $TON to $GRAM .
After the coin price briefly rose, it kept falling and dropped below $1 last week.
What do you think about its outlook, friends—bearish or bullish?

🚨 Durov says the Telegram ecosystem is growing rapidly. Commentary: This guy is still sleepwalking!

On November 9, Telegram founder Pavel Durov (@durov) posted on X that more than 700,000 self-custody wallets had been created on the Telegram platform in the past 48 hours.

He noted that adoption of these wallets is growing rapidly, and users can activate a wallet automatically simply by receiving $GRAM tokens. He believes this shows that the momentum behind cryptocurrency adoption is still going strong.

📌 #币圈心学 This guy Durov is still sleepwalking!
Since last year, the Telegram ecosystem and user activity have continued to shrink and stagnate. Earlier this year, LaoYao published an article titled “Telegram’s Ecosystem Crisis: The Giant Being Abandoned by Capital and Users.” Interested readers are welcome to search for and read it on LaoYao’s X platform.

🚨 Why hasn’t the crypto market followed the rebound in U.S. stocks?
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen a period of consolidation and a modest recovery following a mild pullback.
In stark contrast to the strong rebound in U.S. stocks, crypto assets still lack a clear source of fresh capital.

The main pressures come from three areas:
① Institutional capital: Spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, and institutional demand for allocations has yet to recover.
② Regulatory outlook: Policy and regulatory expectations following the U.S. midterm elections are still being repriced, leaving the market cautious.
③ Market confidence: Recent volatility has dampened risk appetite, leveraged investors are actively reducing exposure, and the market lacks fresh trend-driven buying.

📌 Key market data
Total crypto market capitalization: approximately $2.5 trillion, down around 1.5% over 24 hours.
Total liquidations: approximately $320 million, with long positions accounting for a larger share, indicating that leveraged positions are still being flushed out.

$BTC : Trading around $75,000, with a rebound after dipping to a low.

$ETH : Approximately $2,120–$2,140, underperforming BTC overall, with declines reaching 0.5%–5% at certain points.

💡 #币圈心学 :
Macroeconomic tailwinds lifted U.S. stocks and gold, but did not reach the crypto market.
This means crypto assets are undergoing a standalone stress test of capital flows and investor confidence.
ETH in particular reflects further divergence in how capital is being allocated across different crypto assets, given its relative weakness.
Looking ahead, the key things to watch are not only whether BTC can stabilize, but also whether ETF inflows can resume and whether ETH can regain relative strength.

Since time immemorial, even heroes have fallen for a beautiful woman!
Put yourself in their shoes: faced with such temptation,
how many could remain unmoved?

To be fair, the most promising crypto marketing platform right now
is undoubtedly Binance Square.
The only drawback is that its marketing model is mainly based on existing users and targets institutional financial clients, so it can't do much for everyone else.

Among the many paid groups in the Chinese-speaking crypto community, every single one operates on the same mindless predatory model: the insiders fleece the unsuspecting.

Financial management should follow the principle of sharing both returns and risks. There are really only two reliable models:
1. Funds or private equity;
2. Family offices.

🚨 Why does the Chinese-speaking crypto community give people the impression that “bad money drives out good”?

The development and marketing logic of platforms in the Chinese-speaking crypto community is based on referral commissions + an egg-and-toilet-paper marketing model;
At its core, this is a combination of junket operators + a pyramid scheme;
The product and marketing teams are structured according to a junket operator + health supplement pyramid scheme model;
This differs from Wall Street’s G-end–B-end–C-end, layer-by-layer transmission model;

It’s inevitable that Binance Square and X feel different to use,
because their product architecture and user bases are completely different.

#华语币圈 #劣币驱逐良币 #鸡蛋卫生纸 #币圈心学

🚨 Solana named by the People’s Bank of China-affiliated Financial News—overinterpreted by the crypto community!

On November 6, Financial News, which is affiliated with the People’s Bank of China, published a report saying that recent monitoring had found Solana ( $SOL ) placing high-profile ads through relevant domestic entities to promote its brand and market virtual currencies. The central bank, together with local financial regulators, public security authorities, market regulators, and other departments, halted offline events and will investigate the entities and individuals involved.

The news quickly gained traction in the crypto community, with many interpreting it as “Chinese government agencies officially launching an investigation into Solana.”

The report also cited a relevant official as saying:
SOL, issued by Solana, is essentially a virtual currency. Solana also provides technical services for the issuance and trading of major virtual currencies such as USDT. These activities are all illegal financial activities explicitly identified in the Notice, and promoting them violates the regulations. Going forward, efforts to crack down on related activities will continue, focusing on domestic virtual currency traders and domestic affiliates of overseas platforms.

📌LaoYao ( #币圈心学 ) thinks this is clearly an overinterpretation.

1. The information is limited and the source is vague.
The article is only a few hundred words long, with large sections cobbled together from previously published online material. The statement attributed to $ comes from “a relevant bureau official”—a “no specifics” source, with no specific department, title, or individual!
In financial media, this kind of article is patchwork filler.

2. A search of articles by Ma Meiruo, who wrote the piece, turned up no in-depth reporting. She is probably not a veteran journalist who writes in-depth internal reports.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that mainland regulators may investigate Solana rigorously. But judging from this article alone, the interpretations circulating across various crypto platforms seem to be a case of rumor being repeated as fact.

The cancellation of Solana’s planned “Solana Accelerate China 2026” roadshow, scheduled for October 16–22 in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing, does not necessarily reflect the position of the central bank or mainland decision-makers. It may instead be the result of implementers thinking, “Better to stop something that might be permissible than do something wrong and be held responsible.”

Mainland China strictly controls crypto speculation, but it has never issued a document restricting the development of blockchain. If policy on the development of the blockchain industry were really being adjusted, that would not be a decision that could be made by a bureau-level official at the central bank.

🚨 Crypto market stages a V-shaped reversal, while rebuilding trust remains the main theme

The crypto market experienced sharp volatility over the past 24 hours: first weighed down by regulatory expectations, then staging a V-shaped reversal as U.S. stocks rebounded and risk appetite recovered amid improving macro conditions.

#币圈心学

📌 The crypto market is entering a phase of rebuilding trust and reshaping pricing power

Over the past decade, the crypto market has relied primarily on technological innovation, trading activity, and global liquidity.
As Wall Street institutions enter the market, ETFs develop, and regulatory frameworks gradually take shape, crypto assets are being integrated into a broader financial trust system.
The key to future competition will be not only who has more users, greater trading volume, or a technological edge,
but also who controls the infrastructure, wins regulatory recognition, and can attract long-term institutional capital.

Technology determines whether a market can exist,
trust determines whether capital can stay for the long term,
and pricing power determines where wealth ultimately flows.

🚨 Midterm elections are a medium- to long-term headwind for crypto markets:
——Global crypto regulatory policies are likely to tighten.

But more important than short-term prices are the structural issues facing crypto markets.
The impact of the Binance incident ( $BNB ) has already gone beyond the risks of a single trading platform.
Chinese-speaking communities have considerable influence in crypto trading and communities, but the core influence of global regulation, institutional capital, and traditional financial infrastructure remains concentrated largely in the United States and on Wall Street.
Kim Yo Jong's positive response to the related incident has further heightened concerns about the security of crypto assets, regulation, and trust mechanisms.

A deeper issue lies beneath this:
Is there a structural mismatch emerging between crypto markets' trading influence, control over capital, and power to set prices in global finance?

In the future, competition in crypto markets may no longer be just competition between exchanges, but competition between regulatory systems, financial infrastructure, institutional capital, and market trust.

🚨 The U.S. midterm election results are all but settled! Democrats have flipped both chambers

Several major media outlets have projected/announced that Democrats have won control of both chambers.
Trump’s latest post also essentially confirms the midterm election defeat.

💸 Why has the renminbi continued to appreciate?
U.S. Dollar Index: 101.72
Offshore renminbi: 6.6472

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, while other currencies diverged;
the renminbi remained strong, though the midpoint was adjusted slightly lower;

So far this year, the renminbi has appreciated nearly 5% against the U.S. dollar. A Goldman Sachs report even suggests it could reach 5.5 in the future.

So, why is the renminbi appreciating?

In my view, the renminbi’s appreciation is not simply due to strong exports, as Goldman Sachs has suggested.
Beyond exports as a contributing factor, China itself also wants a stronger renminbi;
renminbi appreciation helps reduce the cost of China’s foreign debt;
for a long time, the renminbi has been closely pegged to the U.S. dollar;
since Trump took office, he has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which has helped drive the renminbi’s appreciation to some extent.

The interest rate gap between the renminbi and the U.S. dollar is enormous. In theory, China cutting interest rates should cause the renminbi to depreciate;
but China imposes capital controls, and the renminbi is not freely convertible, so the amount that can truly be freely exchanged is very limited.
So China’s ongoing domestic interest rate cuts
help reduce the cost of government bonds, corporate bonds, and local government financing vehicle debt, for which there are no reliable figures.

So, will the renminbi continue to appreciate?
In the short term, the key factor is China’s foreign trade data; over the medium to long term, it is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy;
the global trend toward protectionism is now very difficult to reverse,
and China’s export growth is inevitably unsustainable.

If the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, as the market expects,
then the renminbi’s room for appreciation will be very limited.

#币圈心学 #人民币