Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top. Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below). Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it. Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏 #Bitcoin #BTC #Halving #Cycles #HalvingCylces #BitcoinCycles #BTCcycles
Dip under nearest LP <78055 gave enough volume and closed very bullish pushing $BTC back up. August close at 78550 act as strong HTF support now and correlates with Monthly 20ema.
Now we should wait either for volume rejection around 79936 / 80633 or breakout through these LPs and pump higher to 81870 for another attempt to change the trend on Weekly.
📈 HTF - August candle gained momentum that should be enough to push price above previous LH at ~82828 (and by doing to confirm the bottom of the correction and bullish reversal.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: Y VWAP VAH, D/W20ema, 81500, 76152, 73653, 68241
Wise Analyze
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$BTC pump target zone covered. Now nearest downside LP <78055 and the following under last week's low at 76150.
On the upside main target remains 82828 - level required to confirm bullish reversal. Till then weekly chart remains within downtrend.
$BNB confirmed the bullish reversal (unlike BTC) by crossing last weekly lower high (May high at ~746.6). So buying dip on this chart make sense.
Bullish gaps waiting for revisit are located around 730 and 707. Anything lower most probably will signal end of this swing and the start of correction. In this scenario we may witness return back to ~635, but at this stage its too early too look that far.
Ethereum bullish consolidation range 2355 - 2550. While remains within the range we may expect another leg up with potential final target at ~3220.
Dips to Daily 20ema possible and TG alarm is set for that cross (as well as for Weekly 20ema - in case correction starts its a strong dynamic level to watch PA).
$BTC covered first LP <78055 without any visible bullish reaction (so far). Next zone to watch should be Daily 20ema and LP under last week's low at 76150.
Last week's bullishness fully removed, so hard to forecast anything, but price remains within big consolidation range. I think bullish scenario assumes re-test of Daily 20ema, but dropping much lower might trigger stronger correction.
Besides Gold and stock indices all start NY session with a dump. And today is week open for US, so high volatility is well expected.
📈 HTF - August candle gained momentum that should be enough to push price above previous LH at ~82828 (and by doing to confirm the bottom of the correction and bullish reversal.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: Y VWAP VAH, D/W20ema, 81500, 76152, 73653, 68241
Trend: D 🔼 W 🔽 M 🔽
😱 F&G: 69 < 71 < 73 < 73 < 74
Wise Analyze
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$BTC pump target zone covered. Now nearest downside LP <78055 and the following under last week's low at 76150.
On the upside main target remains 82828 - level required to confirm bullish reversal. Till then weekly chart remains within downtrend.
Still very uncertain choppy range as we haven't seen the real strong impulse move. $BTC failed to break through Monthly 20EMA this morning, but it's not over yet, so might do it later.
Forecast for potential range boundaries stays the same: 74-75k for the dump or ~80k for the pump.
📈 HTF - August candle gained momentum that should be enough to push price above previous LH at ~82828 (and by doing to confirm the bottom of the correction and bullish reversal)
Week chart leaves a wide range for consolidation down to 72k
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: Y VWAP VAH, D/W20ema, 81500, 73653, 68241
Bearish momentum from last week’s close dumped $BTC under last week’s low at 76649 ✅
The narrow range on the 4H hints we haven’t seen the real volatility yet - it’s just around the corner. Expect a strong impulse move either down to the daily 20 EMA (~74.6k) or back above 80k.
Given the monthly bullish momentum, I’d treat dips as a buying opportunity. But be ready for price to tag 72k. So no high-leverage, mindless knife-catching.
📈 HTF - August candle gained momentum that should be enough to push price above previous LH at ~82828 (and by doing to confirm the bottom of the correction and bullish reversal)
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: Y VWAP VAH, D/W20ema, 81500, 73653, 68241
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Month closed above the last swing close. That significantly increases the odds that bullish momentum pushes price through the previous LH at ~82828 (and by doing so confirms the bottom of the correction).
Last week’s close still points down, so dips remain possible - at least under last week’s low at 76649.
Lower timeframes show the same potential for volatility, with a wide range for liquidity raids. That said, $BTC remains inside a “bull flag” consolidation — and that stays valid until it’s invalidated.
Month closed above the last swing close. That significantly increases the odds that bullish momentum pushes price through the previous LH at ~82828 (and by doing so confirms the bottom of the correction).
Last week’s close still points down, so dips remain possible - at least under last week’s low at 76649.
Lower timeframes show the same potential for volatility, with a wide range for liquidity raids. That said, $BTC remains inside a “bull flag” consolidation — and that stays valid until it’s invalidated.
$BTC remains in bullish consolidation around the monthly 20 EMA. Today is the last day of the month (which so far looks very bullish), so we may see some volatility as bigger players close positions and lock in August results. That said, if the monthly close holds around current levels, bullish momentum has a very good chance of pushing price higher next month.
To the upside, nearest short term level for re-test is developing Yearly VWAP VAH around 79960.
To the downside, however liquidity pools are further, the liquidity pools sit further away - but they’re easily reachable early in the new month if price decides to dip first. Those are the key levels worth watching and trading 👇🏽
Bullish momentum pushed BTC to new high at 81500. Over the night Asian session created a rejection candle on 1H chart, which returned price back under Year VAH. This hints on possible dip lower, although this chart remains within LTF uptrend.
❗️ Weekly LH at ~82828 - cross above required for BTC to exit downtrend.
LTF range played out - $BTC dipped to weekly open and bounced to VWAP VAH ✅✅
Next possible scenarios: 1) move continues to close FVG at 80440 with either rejection there or continuation towards recent high at 81270 2) rejection under 80440 and breakdown to 76.6k
LTF range played out - $BTC dipped to weekly open and bounced to VWAP VAH ✅✅
Next possible scenarios: 1) move continues to close FVG at 80440 with either rejection there or continuation towards recent high at 81270 2) rejection under 80440 and breakdown to 76.6k
Yesterday closed with what may look like a rejection. This needs to be weighed together with lower- and higher-timeframe price action and momentum - the weekly and 3-day charts still have room to run higher.
On the 1H, $BTC is back in its favorite mode: choppy consolidation. That’s usually what happens right before a sharp move. But you never know when.
Top of the LTF range sits around 79.9k with liquidity above it. Immediate support is at the weekly open (77720). The April close at 76.3k forms the next SR zone.
Monthly 20ema at ~78364. Daily is correlating with Year VWAP at ~71k. Developing Y VAH sits at ~79856
Yesterday closed with what may look like a rejection. This needs to be weighed together with lower- and higher-timeframe price action and momentum - the weekly and 3-day charts still have room to run higher.
On the 1H, $BTC is back in its favorite mode: choppy consolidation. That’s usually what happens right before a sharp move. But you never know when.
Top of the LTF range sits around 79.9k with liquidity above it. Immediate support is at the weekly open (77720). The April close at 76.3k forms the next SR zone.
Monthly 20ema at ~78364. Daily is correlating with Year VWAP at ~71k. Developing Y VAH sits at ~79856
$BTC pumped by ~24% in less than three days 🚀 Didn’t see that coming. A few days ago I doubt anyone imagined we’d be looking at prices this high.
I’m still holding the same amount of BTC I’ve always had. The extra coins I bought around 62-63k for some in-and-out trading I sold at 71.5-71.9k… which makes me look like an idiot now 🤡
I broke the main rule of profitable trading — let your winners run. Setting targets is a bad habit and I’m working on dropping it. No targets. Just the flow.
That said, Bitcoin is still trending higher on the lower timeframes. It hasn’t even tried to break the HH/HL structure on sub-1h charts. The last 30m candle pushing back under the monthly 20 EMA is the first real bearish sign since this pump started, and it hasn’t played out yet (gotta wait).
$BTC pumped by ~13% from yesterday's low 🚀 Very bullish, especially comparing to stock indices that are stuck in correction.
Nevertheless keep in mind trend factor - to exit downtrend BTC needs to cross above last Weekly LH at ~82828. Till it does, it remains within HTF downtrend.
Earlier I've wrote that 69-72k zone is for taking shorts. That remains true, BUT we should WAIT for momentum to fade away and reversal PA to show up, before taking shorts. Otherwise you risk joining army of liquidated shorters.
I've taken profits from my spot buys made on the dips during June-July by pre-set limit orders at average sell price ~71560. Maybe too early, but I've been waiting 3 months and I am more than happy with profit 😅 Not shorting yet - reasons described above.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts zone around 72k (wait for PA confirmation) * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, 73653, 60800
To exit the downtrend, $BTC needs to cross above the last weekly lower high at ~82828.
But the pump looks solid - we may see a new high tomorrow.
#Bitcoin is now covering the gaps from the June 1st and 2nd dumps. Each of those gaps is packed with people who’ve been waiting 80+ days for a chance to exit at break-even. Will they get swept as liquidity, or will they actually stop the price?
$BTC has covered both zones I marked on Monday. As a reminder, price has remained inside the same consolidation range for over 2.5 months, and the higher timeframe is still in a downtrend.
To grab more liquidity, price either needs to break above 65,800 or drop below 62,200 (the nearest 63.6k liquidity pool is a smaller one).
Don’t ask which scenario is more likely - flipping a coin would give you a forecast of the same precision. Short-term, though, I think we should watch the retest of 64.7k and, based on the price action there, either look for a breakout or a rejection and dump back toward the Daily 20EMA and the key zones that follow.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 59-60k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
As expected $BTC wicked under the trendline, but not that much, and those dips gave enough volume to push it back up on Monday. Nevertheless Week candle closed under previous week open.
UK/US Friday POC correlates with week close. If downtrend continues, we may expect temporary bounce to one of the nearest key liquidity zones and then another swing down.
I'd be careful with swing longs at least till BTC grows above 67k - till then every bullish move has higher chances to be a trap, rather than a reversal. Follow the trend.
⏳HTF zones to watch and act based on PA there: * for shorts 69-72k * for cautious longs 59-60k * for heavy long term and spot buys longs 44-48k
Alarm for $ETH Daily 20ema cross appeared in TG at $1884.2 👌🏼
#Ethereum remains within a choppy range, but at least we see another attempt to find acceptance above Daily 20ema and trendline (based on Daily closes).
Weekly 20ema at 1985 and moving down. At some point we should see a re-test of that dynamic SR.
⏰ Free TG alarms set for: D/W/M20ema, Y VWAP, 2365, 2006, 1943, 1852, 1775, 1680