It’s been 60 days of consistently dollar-cost averaging into BTC.
I’ve held on all the way from the highs earlier in the period to now, with the market moving sideways between $83K and $84K. ETFs have recently seen a period of outflows, but over a longer timeframe, cumulative inflows remain strong. After 60 DCA purchases, my average cost has come down and my position has gradually grown. Short-term ups and downs are normal, so I’ll just stick to my original schedule without trying to trade every swing.
BTC is currently around $83K–$84K, moving within a range of $81K–$84K. ETFs saw net outflows of $650 million over the past five days, including $65 million in outflows on the 12th, as institutions took some profits. The RSI is in neutral territory, and the price remains firmly above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The Fear and Greed Index is neutral to slightly greedy.
First, the overall market: CT was the only one up today; almost everything else sold off across the board. GSTOCK plunged 30%, getting cut in half—brutal.
DGAI has been hovering around 0.93, with 24-hour trading volume of over 8 million and an FDV close to 930 million. Limit orders totaled over 25 million today, a fraction of yesterday’s massive 1-billion-plus order book. The major players have probably taken a break for now. There are 3 days left in the project cycle, so keep a close eye on it.
CT is up 10%, currently at 0.35, with trading volume of over 10 million and an FDV of 350 million. Limit orders totaled just 740,000 today, compared with nearly 100 million yesterday. After yesterday’s frenzied accumulation, things suddenly went quiet today—a pattern that looks a lot like a controlled shakeout. There are 17 days left in the contract cycle and 3 days left in the trading competition, so short-term interest could stay strong for a while.
XDP has the highest trading volume in this group, at 170 million. It’s currently around 0.02, down 11%, with an FDV of just over 200 million. Limit orders totaled 250,000 today, down from over 8 million yesterday, so interest has cooled significantly. Key point: only 13 hours remain in the trading competition. Many people may try to make a last-minute push, so expect volatility.
BREW is down 15%, with trading volume of just 600,000. Limit orders totaled 6,000 today, down from over 70,000 yesterday. Almost nobody is participating anymore.
GSTOCK had the steepest drop, down 30%, with trading volume of 1 million. Limit orders totaled 3,000 today, down from 160,000 yesterday—a 50% plunge.
APM edged down 2%, with trading volume of 180,000. Limit orders totaled just 180 today, down from 14,000 yesterday—almost nothing.
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BTC surged to $84,254 on Monday before pulling back, at one point falling more than 2% intraday. An oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, while news of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has yet to materialize, sending uncertainty soaring. Oil prices jumped to nearly one-month highs, with Brent at $107.25 and WTI above $94. Safe-haven sentiment has picked up, and inflation expectations are rising again, so keep a close eye on this week's CPI and PPI data.
Total market capitalization has climbed back above $4 trillion, up around 5.6% overall in the past 24 hours. About $216 million in positions were liquidated across the market in the past hour, mostly shorts.
Here are a few key points:
1. Binance has paid out $283 million in compensation to users affected by USDe's depeg. The “zero price” previously shown in spot trading was just a display bug; the assets had not actually fallen to zero.
2. Fed voting member Hammack said policy should shift toward a more restrictive stance, with a preference for smaller, more frequent rate adjustments.
3. The UK High Court ruled in the case involving Qian Zhimin (Blue Sky Gre...), finding that Chinese law applies to claims over 61,000 BTC. The funds involved are worth around £4.1 billion, and victims are unlikely to receive any subsequent appreciation in value.
4. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned that global stablecoins have not yet been tested in a period of severe market stress, and that cross-border regulatory oversight needs to be strengthened.
5. HKEX is listing Pando's second spot SOL ETF today, ticker 2831.HK, with a 0.6% management fee. It does not stake assets or use leverage.
On the trading front, QCP's view is that the options market is showing a mix of defensive and bullish sentiment. If the market can firmly break above and hold $87K, the next target is $94K. Sell orders worth around $180 million are stacked near $84,500, while buying support sits at $82,000.
The main events to watch this week are still Powell's remarks and the CPI data.
DGAI: Price at 0.9534, down 1.13% in 24 hours, with an FDV of around $953 million. Today’s trading volume from limit orders is around 44.7 million, down from over 1.028 billion yesterday. Honestly, that’s a pretty dramatic drop in volume.
CT: Price at 0.3193, up slightly by 2.78% in 24 hours. But trading volume from limit orders plunged from 122 million yesterday to around 590,000 today—a very noticeable drop in volume.
XDP: 24-hour trading volume is still nearly 192 million, while the price is down 1.17%. Trading volume from limit orders fell from 9.25 million to around 380,000. The shift in activity is worth keeping an eye on.
GSTOCK: Up 3.85% in 24 hours, which looks decent, but trading volume from limit orders is only 2,258—basically nobody’s trading it.
BREW: Down 4.84% in 24 hours, with just 356 in trading volume from limit orders today.
APM: Down 0.83% in 24 hours, with trading volume from limit orders at 345.
October 10: Binance Alpha 30-Day Trading Competition for Newly Listed Tokens
DGAI is currently at 0.9761, with 24-hour volume of 3.05 million, up slightly by 1.38%. Its FDV is nearing $1 billion. 6 days left.
CT is at 0.3214, with volume of 11.6 million, up 0.78%, and an FDV of $321 million. Perpetuals are now listed. 6 days left in the trading competition, and 20 days left for the overall bonus.
XDP is priced at 0.0232, with 24-hour volume of 199 million, up 21.22%, and an FDV of $231 million. 4 days left in the trading competition, and 18 days left for the bonus.
BREW is currently at 0.0106, with volume of 510,000, down 11.79%, and an FDV of just $10.6 million. 15 days left for the bonus.
APM is at 0.00476, with volume of 1.13 million, down 13.09%, and an FDV of $47.65 million. 7 days left.
GSTOCK is at 0.00772, with volume of 740,000, up 9.97%, and an FDV of $7.62 million. 15 days left.
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Around $BTC 82500, prices dipped to 80400 on Thursday, giving back half of September’s gains. A slight rebound has yet to hold; ETH at 2500. Resistance at 87000 could not be broken, and prices headed straight down.
Macro: Progress in US-Iran talks has been reported, with no plans to go to war before the election for now. Oil prices surged and then pulled back, the dollar remained above 102, and 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 5.233%. Waller said there is still room for rate hikes, but they need not be consecutive. The meeting minutes struck a hawkish tone, while markets expect a pause in rate hikes in October.
ETF outflows continue: net outflows for October are approaching $1 billion. BTC saw a single-day outflow of $244 million on Thursday, while ETH has seen outflows for eight consecutive days. Online reports claim the US government transferred 12,000 BTC, but this has not been confirmed.
83000 has been breached; support is at 80000, with 79000 in view if that level gives way. Weekend trading is thin, and ETF outflows continue, so this rebound wick is not a good opportunity to buy the dip.
BTC fell to 80,000 in the early hours before starting to recover. This is a post-drop rebound, not a trend reversal.
Trump said he wouldn’t strike Iran before the election. Oil prices fell, short sellers covered their positions, and crypto prices climbed from around 80,400 to 83,300. The catalyst was easing geopolitical tensions, not new buying.
The short-term outlook remains bearish. The structure of the decline from around 87,000 is still intact, the price remains below the MA99 (around 84,000), and ETFs are still seeing outflows. For now, this is just a technical rebound after holding 80,000. For the bulls to regain the initiative, the price needs to hold above 84,000 and do so on increased volume. If it can’t reclaim that level, the rebound may end and prices could continue falling.
This round of selloff was probably triggered first by macro factors, and then leverage amplified the downside.
Brent crude oil has surged straight past 100 and is heading toward 102. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations follow. U.S. Treasury yields are also up— the 10-year is now around 5.3%, the highest level seen in more than twenty years.
Funds are more willing to chase risk-free high interest. Bitcoin, which doesn’t generate yield, gets dumped first. And the U.S. stock market has also pulled back—this isn’t only about crypto going down.
October 8: Binance Alpha 30-Day Trading Competition for Newly Listed Tokens
DGAI is currently priced at 0.965, with a 24-hour volume of 4.73 million, down 1.78%. FDV: 965 million. 8 days remaining.
CT contract is currently priced at 0.3724, with a 24-hour volume of 14.19 million, up 1.05%. FDV: 372 million. 12 hours remaining in the trading competition countdown.
XDP is currently priced at 0.0196, with a 24-hour volume of 250 million, up 1.04%. FDV: 196 million. 6 days remaining in the trading competition.
APM is currently priced at 0.00544, with a 24-hour volume of 10.43 million, up 25.18%. FDV: 54.41 million. 9 days remaining.
4Stock is currently priced at 0.00559, with a 24-hour volume of 1.24 million, down 20.89%. FDV: 5.59 million. 1 day remaining.
GSTOCK is currently priced at 0.0079, with a 24-hour volume of 2.14 million, down 5.75%. FDV: 7.8 million. 17 days remaining.
BREW is currently priced at 0.0126, with a 24-hour volume of 1.79 million, up 13.62%. FDV: 12.61 million. 17 days remaining.
NES is currently priced at 0.1372, with a 24-hour volume of 710,000, down 1.5%. FDV: 141 million. 2 days remaining.
$BTC tested 87,000 again yesterday but failed to break through for the third time. It has now pulled back to 85,900, still some way off September’s high of 87,400. ETH is trading sideways around 2,720.
This morning’s news: The US denied reports of a crash in the Red Sea, while Qatar said Middle East negotiations are ongoing. Trump is considering suspending the federal gasoline tax, and the IEA is preparing to finalize details for the release of 100 million barrels from its oil reserves. Yesterday’s headlines: Yemeni government forces recaptured Mocha, and the Mecca Defense Alliance activated its collective defense measures. US bombers withdrew from a UK base after receiving a threat. The Nasdaq hit an intraday record, but US Treasuries continued to sell off, and the euro fell to a 17-month low.
Oil prices fell to a near one-month low, with WTI at 89.8. Gold first plunged to 4,105, then rebounded to 4,160. Tonight, the focus is on the Fed’s September meeting minutes, which should show how hawkish officials were about rate hikes at the time.
Long-term holders have reduced their positions for seven consecutive weeks, but buying pressure is still holding up. The CFTC issued an advance notice of a framework for spot crypto markets; it is not yet a finalized regulation. For now, there’s no news more significant than the meeting minutes.
The 87,000 resistance level remains difficult to break. Support is at 84,000; if that level gives way, the next level to watch is 83,000. It’s not advisable to chase prices higher before the minutes are released.
$BTC is still hovering around 86,000, and it just can’t break through 87,000! Since late September, this is the third time it’s been pushed back. Right now, it’s trading around 86,200.
Last year’s National Day holiday was the perfect time to sell BTC near the top—and it was also when the first Chinese meme coin, Binance Life, was born.
On this day a year ago, BTC had just touched a high of 126,000. Since then, it’s pulled back by almost 30%. If you missed out with a large position, so be it. Dollar-cost averaging with a tiny position is meant to get you through choppy markets like this. There’s no need to worry about whether it can hold above 87k today—just buy and don’t keep checking the price.
For now, support below is still holding, while resistance above hasn’t been broken. So stay patient and wait quietly ⌛️.
$BTC is hovering around 86,000. Yesterday it surged to 87,000, but was pushed back down and still failed to break through. ETH: 2,720.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%, largely cooling market expectations of a rate hike in October. The dollar closed slightly lower at 101.94. The 10-year Treasury yield fell before rebounding to close at 5.283%, without following the weakening trend in the jobs report. WTI fell to 90.33, while Brent remained at 101.83.
The G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel over four months. Trump said there would be no ban on diesel exports. Iran responded to the U.S., saying that discussions related to the Strait of Hormuz are the priority at this stage. OPEC+ confirmed that November quotas will remain unchanged. Hammack believes the jobs report is in line with recent employment trends and that policymakers can afford to wait and see; Logan continues to insist on at least another 50 basis points. One side is releasing reserves to push oil prices down, while the question of rate hikes has yet to be fully settled.
BTC needs to hold above 87,200 for the outlook for further gains to look promising. ETH is range-bound between 2,650 and 2,800. The estimated probability of a rate hike in October is now just 22%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is holding around 5.25%. Key dates: Wednesday’s Fed minutes; CPI on the 14th.
The 87,200 level is crucial. Near-term support is at 83,000; if that breaks, the next level to watch is 81,000. Treasury yields have not fallen significantly, so the jobs report alone is not enough to justify turning bullish.
⚠️ Note: This does not constitute investment advice.