张烁峰的剧本日记

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Under the main force's control, Er Gouzi continues to fall, and there are no clear signs of a stop-loss. Do not blindly buy the dip.

Currently, Er Gouzi's price hovers around 2809, at three o'clock in the morning Beijing time. Previously, the price surged strongly, accurately reaching the first target of 3030, and half of the position was liquidated for profit according to the strategy; the remaining position was subsequently passively stopped out, resulting in mixed overall operations. What is the ideal entry point for the next round of bullish layouts? We welcome all coin friends to share their views in the comments section.

From the daily chart perspective, before the publication, the highest price reached 3030, while the lowest fell to 2832. When the price surged to the EMA15 trend resistance level near 3050, it encountered resistance and retreated. After the MACD volume was released, it entered a phase of shrinking downward movement, and the double lines of DIF and DEA formed a dead cross pattern. The middle track pressure of the Bollinger Bands is at 3060, and the lower track support looks towards 2800; the KDJ indicator is synchronously diving downwards, and the bearish signals on the daily dimension are fully released.

The four-hour level trend is becoming weaker, with the price having broken below the previous low of 2870, currently weakly consolidating around 2850. The EMA moving average system shows a downward alternating diffusion trend, with the EMA15 indicator declining to 2956, forming resistance; although the MACD indicator shows bottom divergence and volume contraction, the double lines of DIF and DEA are still diffusing downwards, and the bearish trend remains unchanged. The lower track support of the Bollinger Bands focuses on 2825, and the RSI indicator has entered an extreme oversold range, indicating a short-term expectation of a technical rebound.

It is important to emphasize that the current variety is still in a phase of high control by the main force, and it is recommended that all investors prioritize holding their chips to survive steadily as the core principle. Before the market shows clear stop-loss signals, do not blindly buy the dip; patiently wait for the trend to clarify before choosing to layout. #ETH走势分析

The box structure of fluctuations has not been broken, should long positions be firmly held?

The current price hovers around $85,600, and it is currently 2:50 AM Beijing time. Previously, the price surged to reach the first target of $90,000. According to the established trading strategy, it is recommended to take profits by closing half of the position and continue holding the remaining position to secure part of the profits. Even if the market later retraces to the $85,000 level, as long as this position is not effectively broken, the position can continue to be held. However, the current market has a significant bearish force, and there is a high probability that the price will break below $85,000. It is essential to set strict stop-loss orders for the remaining positions, and the subsequent trend will be verified by the market.

From a daily perspective, the price has reached a high of $90,360 and a low of $86,125. The EMA moving average system continues to show a divergence trend, with the EMA15 indicator moving down to the $89,500 level. The resistance level of the box range remains unchanged at $94,200, while the bottom support at $85,000 precisely corresponds to the critical Fibonacci level of 0.786. The MACD indicator continues to shrink, with the DIF and DEA dual lines forming a death cross, indicating a clear bearish signal; combined with the price's reverse plunge after a high, attention should be focused on the support performance at the lower Bollinger Band of $85,950. For investors who have not yet entered the market, it is advisable to wait for the price to effectively break below the lower Bollinger Band before considering entering long positions, and it is recommended to treat short trades with caution at this stage.

The four-hour K-line chart records a relatively large hammer candlestick pattern, with the price once hitting the EMA resistance level of $90,185, and then quickly falling below the moving average support. The MACD indicator continues to show volume, with the DIF and DEA dual lines converging. In the short-term context, as long as the price stabilizes above the $86,000 level, the MACD death cross pattern will not form, and the bullish trend is expected to continue. In this cycle, the upper pressure level for the price is focused on the round number of $90,000, and the lower support is referenced at $85,200. Although current indicators show significant bearish signals, the price has entered the mid-line support area, indicating potential demand for a bullish rebound, and has already fallen into a reasonable trading range. In this context, regardless of the bullish or bearish signals from the indicators, if one chooses to enter and set up long positions, they must also set stop-loss orders accordingly to manage risk.
#美国非农数据超预期

BTC just retraced without going as deep as ETH, but it also validated my point. The layout is as precise as a scalpel, timing, trend, everything is just right.

There is still pressure at 90500-91000 because the position isn't particularly good, so I reduced my position by a part here.

The market is not lacking in opportunities; what it lacks are patient trading artists.

#巨鲸动向

11.21 precise hit bottom, 12.3 said the first wave of the rise has not yet ended, there is still a high point, after confirming on 12.9 it suggested to start adjusting and BTC immediately plummeted, the divine operation that hits wherever it points will not be elaborated further, new followers can do their own research.

In short, the upcoming market:

Blue route - the first wave of decline that started at 94500 has ended, tonight's pullback should not break 85100 in a significant way, starting a wave of rebound, bouncing until the weekend/next Monday. Then, the next wave of decline will occur, ending all adjustments that started from 94500 with a sharp rise to 97000+ before 12.26.

If this is the script, the first wave of decline's endpoint will appear in the week of 12.15 (85147 on 12.16)

Red route - the decline starting from 94500 is completed in one go, falling to a finding of adjustment endpoint on 12.19 and then directly starting a sharp rise to 97000+

This script corresponds to the adjustment endpoint appearing in the week of 12.15

I personally believe that, based on BTC's nature, it will not go this smoothly, so the probability of the blue route is high. If there is a pullback tonight, not breaking 85100 in a significant way is a good opportunity to go long, betting on the rebound against the decline from 94600-85100.

This is just my personal opinion for reference, and does not constitute any investment advice #美国非农数据超预期

After Er Gouzi soared to 3447, I said that a pullback was coming next, and the subsequent maximum drop reached over 16%. Friends who have been watching me, even if they don't have time to make a quick profit, at least won't chase the high and get stuck or blown up.

The next two scenarios:

Blue route: The first wave of pullback that started from 3447 has ended, followed by a rebound for a few days, then next week a lower point will be reached to end the adjustment, and then a surge will begin.

Red route: 2876 is not the endpoint; the wave of pullback that started from 3447 has ended, with no strong rebounds in between. It directly drops to find the endpoint by this weekend and then begins to surge.

The common point of both is that after the adjustment ends, there will be another big rise, the difference is whether the next two days will run a rebound and then drop again, or directly drop to the endpoint in one go.

I believe the blue route has a higher probability; currently, the market shows a demand for rebound. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, if there is a chance for a pullback and it does not effectively break below 2876, I will consider making a short-term long position, with a clear stop loss and a reasonable risk-reward ratio.
#ETH走势分析

Since Er Gouzi 2880 dollars is the starting push point for the rebound.

This is quite a strong support zone, but the overall area corresponds to the position of the starting push point.

The lower edge of the 3000 dollar zone that we previously lost has now become a key resistance level. When testing this resistance, I plan to short at a high after a failed breakout, or go long at a low after a stable breakout.

If Ethereum cannot hold the current local low, I will wait for the price to complete a clear structural reversal before positioning for a long.

The daily trend still points downward, so long trades naturally carry higher risk.

Additionally, several major data releases will occur today.

To be honest, I will not enter trades before the data is released.
#ETH走势分析

The current price of Ethereum is testing a key position—the support level of $3,178, which was previously a resistance
Ethereum has formed a strong resistance range between $3,178 and $3,250. After failing to rise within this range, it is fully reasonable to open a short position.
If the upper limit of this resistance range at $3,250 can be effectively broken, then a long position will be triggered, aiming for $3,308.
After the price falls back to the support range of $3,100, only upon confirming a reversal pattern will the gradually rising low points formed at this position be a reliable signal to enter long.
It should be noted that merely returning to this area does not constitute a condition for going long; rather, it may signal the continuation of a bear market trend.
#ETH走势分析

Ergou's main force has repeatedly tested the previous high without breaking it, is the bullish momentum entering a countdown?

Currently, the price of Ergou is running around 3086, it is 3:40 AM Beijing time, the price has accurately dipped to 3050, the first entry point for going long, at this moment there is no need to hesitate, just strictly follow the established trading plan, and leave the rest to the market trend for verification. The main funds have repeatedly tested but have never been able to break through the previous high, which is enough to demonstrate that the bullish momentum is still strong. It is suggested to rely on key support levels and do a good job in risk control layout, hold with stop-loss in place and wait patiently for the market to break upwards.

From the daily K-line trend, the price has reached a maximum of 3128 and a minimum of 3048 before publication. The short-term and long-term EMA indicators are clearly diverging, indicating that market volatility will further intensify. The EMA15 short-term resistance level has a significant suppressive effect, and the next stage should focus on breaking through the 3170 golden ratio resistance level. The MACD indicator's volume continues to shrink, and the DIF and DEA dual lines are long-term flat below the zero axis; however, the daily K-line has stood firm at the Bollinger Band middle track of 3076 for three consecutive trading days, clearly releasing a rebound signal. Attention should be paid to the upper Bollinger Band pressure level of 3317, while the lower support level looks at 2835.

Looking at the four-hour K-line, the trend signal is clearer. The EMA trend indicator is still in a converging phase, and the key suppressive effect of the upper resistance level of 3170 remains unchanged; the MACD volume continues to reduce, and the K-line has shown an upward trend. The DIF and DEA dual lines are converging synchronously at a low level, releasing a bullish stabilization signal. The Bollinger Band middle track focuses on 3135, the upper track pressure level is 3255, and the lower track support level of 3011 can serve as a defensive bottom line. In summary, from the multi-timeframe indicators, the support strength below 3050 is substantial, and there is no need to be overly entangled; doing a good job in risk control can confidently hold positions and wait for the northbound market to start.

#ETH走势分析