柯总说趋势

Who understands this! ETH plummeted 5.3% in a single day, falling below $3700. The market software is all in the red, while retail investors are panic selling, on-chain data is crazily releasing bottom-fishing signals — this pullback is not a bear market warning, but an opportunity to get in and make money!
As a veteran in the crypto space who has been watching the market for 12 hours, I can guarantee: ETH is poised for a short-term rebound! First, look at the on-chain evidence: the institutional giant SharpLink just increased its holdings by nearly 20,000 ETH at $3892, now facing an unrealized loss of over 5%. With a $3.5 billion position, they cannot sit idle; then looking at the technical side, the 1-hour K-line has hit the critical support level of $3680, which is the absolute bottom line of the fluctuation range in the past month. The RSI indicator has risen from the oversold zone to 46, showing clear signs of momentum recovery. More importantly, the SEC just delayed the compliance deadline for Reg NMS, easing regulations for crypto exchanges and significantly reducing regulatory uncertainty, which undoubtedly injects a strong boost into the market!

Alright, brother, seeing this question, as someone who has been through several rounds of friction in the cryptocurrency world, I’ll light a cigarette and share some practical advice with you.
3000 yuan principal, not too much, not too little, you can hear a sound when you throw it in the water, but in the cryptocurrency world, wanting to rely on this to 'turn around' or 'get rich', the probability is about the same as winning the lottery.
Stay calm, treat this 3000 yuan as tuition, and it's highly likely that you'll have to pay it, only then can you continue to play.
The core advice is just eight words:
Small amounts of trial and error, protect your principal!
Don't jump in thinking about which hundred times coin to All in, and don't believe in the nonsense of those 'teachers' and 'trading groups'. Here are a few points I've summed up from my experiences, every word is heartfelt:

The phone screen at 1 AM is more ruthless than an ex, a glaring red spike directly piercing the preset safety line. Just as I reached for the delete key to curse 'outrageous', it snapped back to its original position! The group chat has already erupted: 'This is obviously a harvest!' I calmly locked my screen and went to sleep. After three years of crawling through the crypto circle, I've seen this kind of 'main force prank' 28 times (more than my number of blind dates).
In my early years, when I first encountered this scenario, I was flustered and cut my position, only to turn around and see the market skyrocketing. I was so angry that I munched on three bags of spicy strips without quelling my frustration. It was only after falling into many traps that I understood: this spike wasn't random; it was the main force delivering a 'soul-searching question': 'Can your chips really withstand the test?'

At 1 AM, my phone went 'ding' with a text message, and I instantly woke up from my money-making dream: 'Your account has been frozen, please cooperate with the investigation.'
Looking at the 120,000 in digital asset withdrawal records on the screen, I was stunned. This isn't a cash withdrawal; it's clearly an expensive lesson on 'earning money is easy, but cashing out is hard'!
As someone who has been in the crypto world for 5 years, I'm here to share my heart with you: no matter how crazy the market gets or how high the floating profit, if you don't choose the right method for cash withdrawal, it's all for nothing; one card freeze is enough for you to understand that 'stability' is the life-saving word for crypto players!

As an old analyst who has been watching the market for 5 years, I have long seen through the market's tricks: enter when there is panic, exit when there is greed, and the stop-loss positions crowded with shorts are clear profit signals. Last night's market was simply meat served on a plate, and not taking advantage of it would be disrespecting my analytical skills!
Practical disassembly, from panic to easy profit, 3 steps to grasp 1.4 billion 'short bonuses'
Warning zone: 2780-2800, open positions in batches, logic first and not impulsive. Early on when ETH fell to 2790, I noticed that there were 1.4 billion level short stop-loss orders stacked above 2880. The major support hasn't broken, and the shorts have clearly laid out their 'exit'. As long as it doesn't break the key support, a rise is just a matter of time. I had 3000U in spare cash, so I first invested 500U to test the waters, with the stop-loss set directly at 2680 (10 points lower than the key support to prevent being washed out by a fake breakout). I calculated in my mind: 'If it breaks, I will take a loss of 500U; if it doesn't break, it's a doubling opportunity. This trade is worth it!'

At three in the morning, the mobile market alert directly woke me up. BTC dropped sharply to 86000, and the fan group instantly exploded with messages of 'Should we cut losses?' and 'How much more can it drop?'
I slowly got up to turn on the computer, and there was still half a cup of milk tea left on the table from last night. It’s not that I'm overly calm; it's that I had already warned the group the night before: the probability of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike surged to 76%, with 14 trillion yen in carry trades needing to be unwound. This market crash had been anticipated for a while. At that time, some joked that I was 'too conservative,' saying, 'What if it continues to rise and we miss out?' I simply replied: 'The market is always there, but the capital is limited. Survive first, and then you’ll have the qualifications to earn money later.'

Family, who understands this! Last March, my cousin suddenly sent me his resignation letter, diving into the crypto market with 50,000 in savings. At that moment, I thought: is this guy going to end up as a casualty? As a result, 45 days later, the deposit message he sent left me speechless with 120,000! I'm not exaggerating, this isn't just luck; it's my secret "sure-win system" that’s too good. Today, I'm exposing this "Crypto Survival Manual" for you to see! How much you can learn depends on whether you can resist making reckless moves!
Step 1: Top gainers in 11 days "Filter the Gold", blacklist those who drop three times in a row!

In the internet café in 2015, the smell of smoke was more pungent than the K-line. I was holding onto 3000 yuan saved from three months of frugality, staring at a screen full of English trying to figure it out. Everyone around me was spending on game skins and grouping up to play, but I threw my money into a 'mysterious digital asset' priced at 2200 yuan each, bringing back 1.5 mainstream coins.
My roommate patted me on the shoulder and laughed: “Isn’t it better to spend this money on a limited edition skin to team up and play? Messing with this incomprehensible stuff is just plain silly!” I didn’t argue; I just felt that the consensus logic of this thing was a bit interesting. It’s not about following trends, it’s an instinctive feeling of 'unusual'.

During last year’s Spring Festival, when I lost the $500,000 principal down to only $1000, I smashed my phone in front of my friends and hid in my rented room eating instant noodles for a week. At that time, I really felt that the crypto space was a 'harvesting machine alliance', and I was just the chives delivered to the door.
I thought about rolling up my mat and leaving, but at night I couldn’t swallow my anger. Why can others earn while I have to suffer losses? In May 2024, with this $1000 'last chip', I set a rule: if I fall into another pit, I’ll completely exit the circle. I didn’t expect to hard earn back the $500,000 loss and roll it into $120,000!
As a veteran in the crypto market for 6 years, today I’m sharing my 'Turtle Strategy' from the bottom of my heart. There’s no mysticism, just solid advice for survival and profit that even a fool can follow!

When I first entered the crypto space, I was like a 'startled bird' staring at a small market cap asset that surged 20%, then slowly dropped for 5 days. I was so scared that I liquidated my holdings overnight, only for that asset to later soar by 50%, making me regretfully slap my thigh;
Later, I focused on the top mainstream asset $ETC, which surged 30% in a single day before suddenly crashing. I hadn’t even finished my bubble tea, and my finger was already on the sell button, managing to avoid a 40% plunge, and I got my bubble tea money back!
My golden rule: after a rapid surge, a 'slow knife cutting flesh' is likely the main force washing out weak hands (scaring off the timid); after a massive increase in volume, a 'lightning crash' is a sign of a top. Don’t hesitate, just run! Candlestick patterns may lie, but money doesn’t act.

As an analyst with 8 years of experience in the crypto circle, I have seen too many retail investors chasing highs and lows and losing money, and I have also experienced turning a principal of 50,000 into an asset of 7 million. Last month's market fluctuation, I decisively pocketed 460,000, not relying on insider information, and certainly not on luck, but all from the 'survival rules' learned from 2555 days of pitfalls!
Today, I’m sharing 6 simple methods with all my heart, without fancy indicators, all practical tips that can be directly implemented. Understanding one can help you lose 100,000 less, and mastering three can allow you to outpace 90% of retail investors!
Rapid rise and slow decline = The main force is 'screening leeks', don't rush to get off! After a rapid surge, if there is no sharp decline, but rather a slow and steady small pullback, this is not a sell-off, but rather the main force washing away the impatient retail investors. Just like the 8% rise in ETH in 15 minutes in June, followed by a slow pullback over the next two days, I confidently held on, and subsequently it reached a new high; but if it was a large volume surge followed by an immediate plunge, that would be a trap to lure in buyers, and if you hesitate for a second, you’ll be ground into the dirt!

My heart was racing so fast it could drum; the keyboard was banging from my hits, almost toppling the monitor. But as my hand hovered over the 'Logout Account' button, I suddenly woke up: was this really the market targeting me? It was clearly the 'Discouragement Gift Package' from the newbie village, and I was just handling it too clumsily!
From that day on, I completely quit the 'Gambler's Mindset' and tailored a set of 'Iron-hearted Trading Methods' for myself. Sounds rigid? But it was these three 'unyielding' rules that allowed me to roll from 8000U to 300,000, and now I even dare to add double pearls when ordering milk tea!

Last winter, my brother locked himself in the house for two months, neither seen alive nor dead.
Later, we broke in (exaggerated, he finally agreed to open the door), the room was as messy as if it had been hacked, the keyboard was shattered into eight pieces, and the monitor screen was cracked like a spider web. His eye sockets were so sunken they could hold fish, and he pointed at his nearly zeroed account on his phone with a bitter smile: '450000, gone, I can't get back up.'
At that time, I was patting him on the shoulder, advising: 'The crypto world is not a casino. Your previous heavy investment, going all in, and blindly bottom-fishing is no different from running naked across the road!'
As spring came and we were drinking coffee, this guy suddenly slammed the table, threw his phone, and on the screen were 3200 start-up funds. The light in his eyes was more dazzling than the ETH surge: 'Either get the hell out or use this money to earn back what you lost!'

As an analyst who has been in the crypto space for 8 years, let me tell you a hard truth today: the crypto market is not a gambling table; it's a 'discipline arena'! Having a small capital is never a reason to lose everything; reckless trading and emotional decisions are the real culprits!
Not long ago, I brought a newcomer, Xiao Yu, into the market with 750U. In 3 months, he earned 21,000 U. Now the account is almost at 40,000 U. There were zero pitfalls and zero passive exits throughout. Do you think it was just his luck? Wrong! This is the core logic I used to grow from 6000U to 'earning without monitoring the market.' Today, I will break it down for you; understanding it could save you 3 years of losses!
1. Capital division method: Stay alive to enjoy the rewards!

I had him send me his trading records, and just a glance made me both angry and amused. He went all-in with 5800U on mainstream crypto assets and dared to open 5 times leverage, and the most absurd part is: he didn't even set a stop-loss! This isn’t trading; it’s clearly delivering a 'chives gift package' to the market!
In the 8 years of cryptocurrency trading, I've seen too many people fall into the misconception that 'full margin = big profits.' I'm not trying to dampen your spirits; full margin trading is like driving a car without brakes. No matter how skilled you are, if the market sneezes lightly, you will crash! Moreover, the speed at which full margin can go to zero is far faster than isolated margin trading. Many think it's due to high leverage, but the root cause is: you have bet your entire life savings on it!

After 8 years in crypto analysis, I have seen too many legends of those who gambled and succeeded, and witnessed the embarrassment of 99% of liquidated individuals. And I myself am the survivor who crawled back from the edge of the rooftop, admitting defeat. On a winter night in 2020, during the frenzy when the leading coin first broke through 20,000 dollars, my 800,000 account was forcibly liquidated to zero, the computer screen cracked from being smashed, and I fled to Dali with only a few hundred left. I delivered takeout during the day, drenched in rain like a drenched chicken, and at night while cleaning the hostel toilet, I secretly vowed: if I touch contracts again, I will directly cut off my hand!
Who would have thought that three years later, I would only have 1000U left in my pocket, and still couldn't resist breaking my vow. But this time, I set a strict rule for myself: if I dare to gamble, take a position, or be greedy, I will directly cut off my fingers as penance. As a result, this 1000U not only helped me recover 500,000 in losses but also earned an additional 300,000. The core principle is one word: cowardice.

The biggest pitfall for beginners is 'going all in'! I advise all students to divide 1000U into 5 parts, each part 200U with its own purpose:
Scout position (200U): Experiment with new targets, losing is not painful, and winning can be magnified.
Main position (200U): Focus on leading assets, core swing trading
Supplementary position (200U): Buy low during pullbacks to average down costs.
Defense position (200U): Hedge against volatility, avoid extreme market losses.
Bottom position (200U): Long-term holding, earn trend dividends
Don't think about doubling in the first 3 months! The goal is 'not to be liquidated + 200U every day.' 30 days equals 6000U, breaking 10,000 in two months is easy; this is the only safe path that newcomers can replicate. Last year, a fan did not listen to advice, went all in on MEME coins with 1000U, and went to zero in 3 days; while those who followed the position breaking method could steadily take 5000+ U every month even in a fluctuating market.

As a veteran who has been in the crypto market for 6 years, I was awakened by a message from fan A Jie at 3 AM last night. The screenshot shows a contract account with a principal of 50,000 directly wiped out in two minutes, with the caption crying out, "Mainstream coins spiking down less than 1% led to liquidation, the market is too dog-like!"
I opened the screenshot and almost laughed (not out of malice, but frustration): 50 times leverage fully used, all-in gambled, and not even a stop-loss line set. What kind of trading is this? Clearly just sending "pocket money" to the market! There are daily liquidations in the contract market, but 90% of people blame the market and the big players, yet no one dares to admit: "It’s my own operation that caused my demise!"

Who understands, family! Last year, when I lost 360,000 and was left with less than 300 digital asset units, I locked myself in my rented apartment for two months, only daring to order 15 yuan worth of takeaway. I almost threw my phone from the 6th floor when I looked at my account balance. By the way, before breaking something, stay calm: the computer can be sold for 500 yuan, and the phone can still be exchanged for a good meal, don't take it out on money!
But that stubborn spirit of 'I can afford to lose but won't admit defeat' forced me to get out of bed: losing 360,000 means I'm willing to take risks, just that I was gambling blindly before; now I only have 3,600 units left, which is just enough to force myself to get rid of the bad habit of 'all in'. After all, if I keep messing around, I really will have to do manual labor to scrape together start-up funds!

家人们谁懂啊！当年我揣着 3 万本金闯进加密市场，堪称 “纯纯小白天花板” 红涨绿跌搞反过，消息面听着像天书，热点追得永远慢半拍，连朋友都调侃我 “这钱不如直接捐给市场”。结果谁能想到，我死磕一个 “N 字” 形态，硬生生用最笨的办法，两年滚到 120 万，三年冲到 600 万，最后五个月直接破千万！
今天作为在市场摸爬滚打多年的老炮儿，我掏心窝子说：加密市场赚钱的核心，从来不是你懂多少指标、能抓多少内幕，而是把简单的招式练到极致！那些花里胡哨的复杂玩法，本质上都是收割小白的陷阱，咱们普通人要想活下来还能赚，认准 “N 字” 就够了！
我的交易字典，只写 “N 字” 两个字
别跟我扯什么 MACD 金叉、RSI 超买，当年我把这些指标背得滚瓜烂熟，结果亏得更快 指标越多，越容易犹犹豫豫，最后追涨杀跌。后来我索性 “返璞归真”，只认 N 字形态，其他全当看不见！
说白了，N 字就是加密资产的 “赚钱信号弹”，就三部分：
启动段：资产先往上冲一波（相当于跑步热身）；回踩段：冲完不贪多，乖乖回调到 20 日均线（这是关键支撑，踩稳了才有力气再冲）；突破段：回调到位后，直接冲破之前的高点（这时候就是进场信号，相当于搭顺风车）。
我的铁规矩：形态没走完绝不进场，一旦突破前高就果断布局，止损直接设 2%（少亏就是赚，别想着扛单），止盈锁定 10%（见好就收，不贪多）。可能有人觉得 35% 的胜率太低？但算笔账：赚一次 10%，亏一次 2%，长期下来绝对稳赚不赔！
去年 6 月就有个典型案例，某个小币种四小时图出了标准 N 字，前高 0.82，回踩刚好落到 20 日均线的 0.76 位置。我在 0.83 突破时果断进场，结果第二天就涨到 0.914，10% 的收益 18 小时到手，比上班搬砖香多了！
做 “甩手掌柜”，让市场自己送钱
很多人炒币炒得身心俱疲，每天盯盘十几个小时，咖啡喝到胃穿孔，结果还是亏。我早就看透了：市场不是靠盯出来的，是靠 “等” 出来的！
我现在的操作流程简单到离谱：把交易软件里所有花里胡哨的指标全删，只留一根 20 日均线当 “导航”。每天早上 9 点 50 分，花 5 分钟扫一眼重点关注的标的，有标准 N 字形态就挂好止损止盈，然后直接关软件 该喝咖啡喝咖啡，该遛狗遛狗，该陪家人陪家人，账户自己会涨！
去年年底有个热门小币种，早上扫盘刚好看到 N 字形态成型，我挂好单就去超市买菜，想着晚上给老婆露一手。结果买菜回来一看，止盈已经触发，净赚 2400 稳定资产，不仅覆盖了买菜钱，还多赚了一顿火锅钱，这才是交易该有的样子啊！
本金为王，活着才能赚更多
说实话，我能从 3 万滚到千万，最关键的不是 N 字形态多灵，而是我守住了 “本金安全” 的底线。很多人赚了点钱就飘了，把所有利润都投进去，结果遇到黑天鹅直接一夜回到解放前，这种亏我早年也吃过，后来才算摸清门道：
赚到 120 万时，我第一时间把 3 万本金提出来，存进稳健理财 相当于用市场的钱 “空手套白狼”，后面操作心态直接起飞，不怕亏；冲到 600 万时，果断提走 300 万配置指数基金，剩下的 300 万相当于 “0 成本玩”，就算遇到极端行情，也不影响我的生活质量。
记住,加密市场里，活着永远比赚钱重要。只有保住本金，你才有机会等到下一个 N 字，赚到更多的钱。
最后，给大家三条 “保命铁律”，做到就能少走 99% 的弯路： 不追涨：再热门的标的，也要等 N 字形态走完再进场，别脑子一热就冲，大概率当接盘侠； 不扛单：一旦跌破止损位，马上离场，绝不犹豫！扛单就是给市场送钱，我见过太多人从盈利变巨亏，都是因为 “舍不得”； 不恋战：赚到钱就提一部分落袋为安，别想着 “再赚一点”，贪心是加密市场最大的敌人。
其实加密市场赚钱真的不难，难的是守住本心，不被复杂的玩法带偏。我当年从连 K 线都分不清的小白，到现在能稳定盈利，靠的不是天赋，就是死磕 N 字 + 守住铁律。
关注柯总，互相交流学习，带你走向币圈的光明！