· Before the data release, market sentiment is extremely fearful, with ETH expected to fluctuate weakly between $2,800 and $3,000, waiting for direction. · Within one hour after the data release, the market will be extremely volatile, and false breakouts are likely to occur; it is essential to stay away from high leverage and remain cautious.
Tomorrow's Trend (Rate Hike Day): Grounded Game
· Scenario 1 (Bad News Fully Priced In): If both events do not have worse-than-expected bad news, ETH may start a technical rebound from the $2,800 support level, targeting $3,000 - $3,080. · Scenario 2 (Double Bad News Pressure): If macro pressure continues, be wary of the $2,800 support failing. If it effectively breaks down, it may accelerate the decline towards the $2,716 or even $2,630 region.
Key Operations:
1. Risk Control First: During the event period, it is essential to maintain a light position and set hard stop losses. 2. Right-Side Trading: Wait for the market to choose a direction (stabilizing at $3,000 or breaking below $2,800) before taking action in the direction of the trend, avoiding blindly bottom-fishing or chasing shorts during volatility.
🚀 Key levels for Bitcoin are being closely monitored! A simple and straightforward strategy is here!
🔥 Current Status: 87,078 USDT · Battle between bulls and bears · Volatility is imminent!
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📈 Key Positions (one line determines the direction)
· Breakout buy point → Stabilize at 88,200 (opening space upwards) · Pullback buy point → Near 86,100–86,500 (support game) · Breakdown sell point → Drop below 85,300 (risk triggered)
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🎯 Two sets of actions, follow them directly
✅ Plan One: Buy on dips (conservative)
· Where to buy: When the range stabilizes at 86,300–86,800 · Where to sell: Take profit in batches at 88,000–88,500 · Defense line: 85,200 (must withdraw if breached!)
✅ Plan Two: Follow the trend on breakout (aggressive)
· Upward breakout: Price surpasses 88,200 and stabilizes → Go long · Target: 90,000–90,500 · Downward breakdown: Drop below 85,300 and weak rebound → Short · Target: Below 83,500
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⚠️ One sentence risk control
· Light position trial order (don’t exceed 10% of capital) · Carry stop-loss (don’t hold positions!) · If there’s no direction, wait, don’t force it!
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📌 Now is the critical turning point window, either wait for a breakout or a pullback, watch more and act less in the middle position! $BTC
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⚠️ ETH Market Warning: Interest Rate Cuts Bring Benefits, Why Are Major Players Fleeing in Droves? $ETH 📉 Core Data Overview
· Current Price: $3,198 | 24-Hour Decline: -3.78% · Technical Breakdown: Has broken through key mid-range support ($3,228), MACD turns negative, and downward momentum strengthens. · Funding Reality: Overall net outflow of funds, with a 5-day net outflow by major players reaching 170,731 ETH; smart money is withdrawing. · Macro Reaction: After the interest rate cut, instead of rising, it falls, with the “good news fully priced in” scenario unfolding.
🎯 Key Judgment The market is dominated by bears, and the clearest danger signal is the continuous exit of major funds.
🛡️ Operational Strategy
· If you hold positions: Risk management comes first. If it effectively breaks below $3,167, consider reducing positions/stopping losses. If the rebound cannot stabilize above $3,230, it presents a risk management opportunity. · If you are flat/lightly positioned: Avoid catching the falling knife. Patiently wait for right-side signals, such as the price reclaiming $3,300 and the flow of funds returning to net inflow.
👀 Keep a Close Eye on Two Points
1. Indicator: Can the “large order net inflow” data turn from negative to positive? 2. Key Levels: Support at $3,167 → $3,040, resistance at $3,230 → $3,350.
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Forward Reminder: Data does not lie, and the movements of major players are key. Protecting the principal is crucial until the trend is clear. Like and follow for more real-time on-chain data interpretations.
· Result: In line with expectations, may experience fluctuations after a short-term surge. · Logic: This is the baseline scenario currently priced in by the market. The announcement will confirm the beginning of the easing cycle, boosting risk sentiment, and ETH will likely experience a rapid short-term increase. However, since this has already been digested by the market, if there are no further surprises, the upward momentum may be hard to sustain, followed by high-level fluctuations or slight declines, waiting for the next catalyst.
2. Interest rate cut of 50 basis points (greater-than-expected easing)
· Result: Major positive news, initiating a strong upward trend. · Logic: This magnitude far exceeds market expectations, demonstrating the Federal Reserve's strong determination to combat recession, leading to a sharp increase in liquidity. This will trigger a frenzy in global risk assets, with significant funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market. ETH will experience a violent surge, likely easily breaking previous highs and initiating a new upward cycle.
3. No interest rate cut (maintaining rates)
· Result: Major negative news, likely to result in a significant drop. · Logic: This indicates that the Federal Reserve believes inflation remains stubborn, and high rates will persist longer. This will completely undermine the market's optimistic expectations, leading to a sell-off due to "disappointment." The dollar will strengthen, and risk assets will be sold off comprehensively. ETH will face tremendous downward pressure, likely breaking key support levels and entering a deep correction.
Key takeaway: Market reactions depend not only on the decision itself but also on the comparison between the decision and market expectations. The direction of "greater-than-expected" is the root cause of drastic price fluctuations. $ETH
As soon as it hits the afternoon, it just consolidates. That big bearish candle in the morning has trapped so many bulls, and now the bulls are in a tough spot; I feel sorry for you.
Can I continue to aim for over $20,000 before exiting? After all, I went from a $5,000 profit to $12,000 in just 15 minutes, and I still have a lot of confidence.