Countdown to Federal Reserve rate cut! 86.2% probability betting on 25 basis points, Powell drops a bomb at 3 AM
⏰【Key Timeline】
1. December 11, 3:00 (UTC+8): Announcement of interest rate decision 2. December 11, 3:30: Powell's press conference 3. Expected target: 3.75% (previous value 4.00%)
📊【CME Latest Data】 🔸 Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December: 86.2% 🔸 Probability of maintaining the interest rate: 13.8% 🔸 Probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in January: 24.8%
🔥【Highlights of Powell's Speech Preview】
1. Interest Rate Policy • May imply a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts • Emphasize the caution in assessing the 'neutral interest rate' • The likelihood of a rate hike in 2025 is basically excluded 2. Inflation and Employment • Confirm the return of inflation to the 2% track
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