BTC路航

A person who likes to ponder the matters of the cryptocurrency world
Consultation first stop - absolute information gap
Divergent thinking - independent thought
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btczzz1
$BTC $ETH

Dreams come true, all promises will be fulfilled.
Yesterday's strategy realized Ether, achieving 50 points and gaining 156% profit.

The stars are not distant fantasies, but the warm promises we will eventually reach.

In the waves of the crypto market, do not be a stubborn bull or bear. Follow the market, do the right thing, and focus on profit #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #比特币流动性 $BTC $ETH $SOL

#BTC The Bollinger Bands are currently narrowing, and the price is being clearly squeezed. It is highly likely that a direction will be determined tonight. I'll briefly summarize the pressure and support levels using AI's Bollinger Matrix for everyone's operational reference.

The upper pressure from 1m to 8h is mainly concentrated at 89k to 90k, with 12h at 91k and the daily line at 94k. If considering a short position, 91k or 94k would be more comfortable levels; we'll see how it goes tonight.

The lower support around 1h to 4h is near 87,500, and the support band from 8h to the daily line is at 85,500 to 85,000.

If considering a long position, you can initially take a light position around 87,500 and then consider adding near 85,500. If the structure below 85,000 deteriorates, exit with a stop loss.

Overall, it's still about waiting for direction, relying on structure, and not chasing prices. Let's follow the trend once it reveals itself tonight.

$ETH traded for two days and finally stabilized above 3000.
If you have long positions, you can raise the stop loss to break even, or take some profits first, don't let the gains go back.

Looking upward, the next two target levels to focus on are:
3144, 3269.

Tonight, the U.S. stock market opening does not rule out a slight pullback before moving up; the overall pace is still leaning towards a fluctuating upward trend.
If you don't have long positions right now, don't chase the price; waiting for a pullback would be more comfortable, look for opportunities in the 2980–2950 range.

As usual, if the structure is intact, hold the positions; if the structure breaks, exit immediately. $BTC #比特币流动性 $ETH

The single order for ETH placed last night has reached the target position, and profit can be taken in batches. It can be arranged a bit; I feel there is still room for an increase $ETH #比特币流动性 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

12.22 Morning Thoughts

BTC is currently still in the adjustment cycle at the 15-day moving average level.
The adjustment at the 10-day moving average was completed after the MACD returned to zero on Thursday, with corresponding structural support at 84,666–83,800. Therefore, I chose to take profits on short positions in that range on Thursday and provided a plan to attempt to go long.

It needs to be clarified that the MACD for the 15-day moving average has not yet returned to the zero axis. Its theoretical support is around 80,666, but this does not mean that the market must retrace to 80,666 or lower to participate in longs. The reason is simple: the market operates in multiple cycles simultaneously.

Currently, structurally, the price overlaps with potential retracement targets from the 12-hour, daily, and 2-day levels, with focus on 88,800, 89,400, and 90,850.
The gaps between these targets are small, but for shorts, it is necessary to guard against upward impulse surges;
For longs, the first step is to observe whether the price touches these positions sequentially according to the structure.

The core observation point for shorts is still at 90,750. If it cannot break this level, the rebound can still be seen as part of a short structure.
Once it breaks and stabilizes, 90,850 will become a key threshold leading to the 93,000–94,000 area, and it is also the golden ratio for the drop from 94,555 to 84,408.

From the perspective of K-line rhythm, the difficulty of the current market is that the overall direction is bearish, but mixed with small upward trends; and after each rebound ends, it prepares for the next round of adjustment.

It does not belong to a standard rule-based oscillation market. The rapid decline last Wednesday and Thursday evening, as well as the rebound the following day, did not strictly follow common Fibonacci retracement ratios, resembling more of an asymmetric rhythm of falling 100 → rebounding 120 → falling 140 → rebounding 120.

Therefore, going long in trading must have strict risk control. 83,000 is the structural bottom line for longs and must not be lost. Short-term shorts should not be pursued hastily, as it is not a one-sided decline. A more reasonable strategy is to wait for a rebound to the upper resistance range before entering. The market structure has been explained, and the rest is left to discipline and patience. High shorts are still the main theme.

BTC and ETH two contracts directly secured! The weekend may lack activity, but that doesn't mean there are no profits. $BTC $ETH

Make contracts, especially short-term contracts!
How can you not know what news will be announced next week?
What day is the announcement?
Knock on the blackboard, highlight the key points!
Red is important news, save it for yourself!
Follow Luhang to grasp the latest market dynamics, and mom no longer has to worry about you losing money!

Triangular convergence, amplitude shrinking, the short line is about to change direction. Want to join me in catching this short-term trend and get on board!!!

Looking back at the moments when the market truly bottomed out, you will find a highly consistent phenomenon.
BTCUSD / Gold ratio has almost always hit stage lows simultaneously.

From my current judgment, gold is being overvalued while Bitcoin is being undervalued.

History has given similar signals many times before.
In 2022, during the Luna crash, Bitcoin's RSI fell below 30, and then the market bottomed;
In 2018, RSI < 30 corresponded to a stage bottom;
In 2015, the same was true.

Now, a more critical point is that on the daily level, BTC relative to gold has begun to form a bullish divergence,
which usually indicates that short-term upward space is gradually opening up.

Remember that divergences only occur at tops or bottoms.
When it appears at a low, the market is often quietly brewing the next stage of the trend $BTC .

BTC last night retraced to the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 84,408 and quickly recovered, with a maximum rebound yesterday near the upper band at 89,350.
It is worth noting that 84,400 is also the 10-day Bollinger lower band, which provided a clear signal to stop the decline after the indicator returned to zero, thus basically confirming the formation of this week's low.

Currently, the price is blocked around 89,350, operating between the middle band and the upper band.
From a structural perspective, momentum at the 1-hour level and below has returned above the zero axis. Compared to the previous two days, the short-term market has indeed strengthened somewhat, but it still belongs to a rebound rather than a trend reversal.

Next week, key focus should be on the upper resistance / short-term risk range:
89,385 / 89,515
90,185
90,750

If 90,750 breaks effectively, pay attention to the following levels: 92,250
93,050
94,150 – 94,250
From the perspective of cycle coordination, the 12-hour and daily levels are still in a rebound structure, with corresponding rebound highs at around 88,800 and 89,385 respectively. Until these levels are broken, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the market.
Looking further ahead, there are still structural risks in the next two weeks:
On the 15th and 20th, the MACD at these levels will gradually return to the zero axis. In historical patterns, the return to zero at these levels is often accompanied by a retracement, and it cannot be ruled out that there will be another test of 80,000 or even lower, when it will be a more meaningful structural low buying area.

Having a precise direction and being able to hold onto the trend is the strongest skill in trading. What truly makes the difference is the ability to judge and execute firmly on the major trends and directions in advance. Once the direction is correctly chosen, all that remains is patience and rhythm management #ETH（二饼） $ETH

At 11:00 today, the short-selling point was hit, and it bounced back. BTC and ETH just entered the short-selling range, while SOL was just shy of 124 and can be avoided for shorting, because 121-122 is too low for shorting, even though it's only a few points apart, but the defense is different.

Today is different from the previous two days because U.S. stocks closed up on Thursday, so during Asian time on Friday, there will be a daytime rebound. Therefore, after the daytime rebound, it might directly open lower at night.
#btc #eth #sol

Recently, do you feel like you can't grasp the direction and your market sense is poor?
For two consecutive days, there was a noticeable rise before the US market opened, and the strength was significant.
Especially last night's wave was more likely to mislead people into misjudging the direction, as the US stock market rose sharply, and many would instinctively feel that "this time it might really be strengthening."

But the result is evident to everyone:
Each time there was a rapid reversal within 1–3 hours after the US market opened, the price was quickly smashed down, directly breaking through the previous low and creating a new low.

This kind of movement is essentially not a trending market, but a typical strong control wash structure.

How is the wash done specifically?
You will find that it almost retraces upwards at a ratio close to 1:1 of the previous day's decline, giving you enough "hope" and sense of confirmation;
Then, it quickly gives back all the gains of this rebound at an expansion ratio of about 1.168, even directly hitting a new low.

The purpose of this rhythm is only one:
To maximize confusion and to maximize stop-loss efficiency.

In this kind of market, if you still trade long or short according to the usual "near stop-loss" method, the result is basically the same: regardless of whether the direction is right or wrong, you will be stopped out back and forth.

The only two types of people who can survive in this kind of market are:
One chooses not to participate; the other recognizes the structure, lays out short positions at highs, and has the ability to hold onto the positions.

When the market starts frequently "fluctuating high and low," and the sense of direction is deliberately disrupted, it often does not mean the market is about to end, but rather is laying the groundwork for the next more violent fluctuation. When most people gradually lose their judgment in confusion and repeated stop-losses, the real "needle" and greater harm often have just begun to brew.

The key points given yesterday have also emerged in the market. Waiting for the next opportunity. Currently, the market's rebound is merely to test the liquidity above. In the short term, continuing with high short positions is the main theme.

This is the logic of long-term trading. Surviving in a bad market is itself an advantage.
We are not here to prove how capable we are, but to do the right thing at the right time and to choose not to act at the wrong time.
The market is always there; you can only win by surviving in the market for a long time.

The non-farm payrolls were just released the day before yesterday, and tonight it's time for the CPI; let's briefly discuss the key points.
The current market expectation is 3.1%. Tonight, there is only one core issue: will the CPI start with a 2 or a 3? If it hits 2.9% or lower, it indicates that inflation can still be controlled, and the market will continue to bet on future rate cuts. If it’s 3.0% or rebounds to above 3.1%, the narrative of sticky inflation will return, U.S. Treasury yields may rise, and tech stocks and risk assets will face pressure. However, it's important to note that this data itself is not very 'clean.' Previously, due to the government shutdown, the data mainly concentrated on the second half of November, combined with Thanksgiving promotions, leading to significant price fluctuations, and there is a considerable risk of CPI distortion. More critically, since October, the macro influence on BTC has changed. It used to be like one sun, now it’s like three suns, and a single data point has become difficult to explain market trends. Therefore, in actual operations, don't easily change the pattern; it's more suitable to do some short-term small fluctuations, focus on surviving first.

The small level of Btc has shown a stop-loss signal, suspected to have formed a W bottom, and the support in the 8.5-8.6w range is pretty good. It has touched this level several times without breaking, so here we can enter long at the current price of 8.68-8.6 to catch a wave of rebound. The first high point to focus on during the rebound is 8.8w, and the second target is 9w. However, the overall trend is still downward, and the plan is to catch a wave of rebound before reversing to short.

ETH market analysis, do not short in the short term, wait for a second short opportunity after the rebound

ETH's current trend is weak, but from the structure and rhythm, the cost-effectiveness of directly shorting in the short term is not high

From a technical perspective, it is more inclined to first induce a rise and then continue to decline

Short-term strategy: go long first, then short

Long position idea (betting on a rebound):
Entry range: 2830–2800
Target range: 2930–2960
Logic: momentum weakening after the decline + short-cycle indicators need to be repaired, there is a demand for a technical rebound, after reaching the target range, it is recommended to close long positions and reverse to short positions, do not get attached to the battle.

In the short term, long positions aim for a wave rebound, without expecting a trend reversal, the overall direction still maintains a high short.

BTC is being manipulated in the US market again, same old story
Can Bitcoin end this period of consolidation?
Today: CPI will affect the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Tomorrow: The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates
Two scenarios for BTC:
1. If CPI inflation remains flat/increases, Bitcoin will reach $84,000
2. If CPI inflation decreases, Bitcoin will return above $90,000
I believe that the focus of currency in 2025 will depend on AI-driven solutions, stablecoins, and ETFs; these keywords reflect innovation and stability