尤槿论金

2.19 Youjin Gold Afternoon Trend Analysis and Trading Suggestions

Overnight gold prices fluctuated violently, opening around 4338 in the Asian market, maintaining a downward trend during the Asian and European sessions, and exhibiting a 'roller coaster' market during the US trading hours due to multiple intertwined factors. The decline in the US November CPI data has strengthened market expectations for interest rate cuts early next year, pushing gold prices higher in the short term. However, the strong performance of initial jobless claims data at the beginning of the week, combined with profit-taking near key resistance levels, caused gold prices to quickly drop to the support level around 4308. Subsequently, bulls quickly rebounded, and in the early morning session, gold prices rose to an intraday high of 4374 USD. However, the good times were short-lived, as prices subsequently fell back, erasing most of the gains, and eventually fluctuated around the 4322-4340 range, closing at 4332.

In today's Asian session, international gold continued to operate weakly, mainly pressured by recent adjustment demands and the rebound of the US dollar index. However, from a trend perspective, gold prices are still within a short-term upward channel, and the market has not yet shown any persistent bearish factors. When the price retraces to touch key support levels, it is still a good opportunity to position for bullish trades.

From a technical perspective, the daily level gold price formed a fluctuating doji, indicating a rebound top signal, and the price is operating below the trendline resistance, suggesting the possibility of further downward adjustments in the future. However, the daily price remains above the short-term moving averages, and the weekly levels are also above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating that the bullish trend has not been broken. Combined with the bullish expectations from the fundamentals, the overall trading strategy remains focused on buying on dips.

Afternoon Trading Suggestions

Buy gold in batches in the 4310-4315 range, with a stop loss set below 4300, and a target looking at 4355-4380.
$BTC

12.18 Gold Morning Review: The overnight pullback has come true as expected, and the intraday bullish layout relies on support.

In the early hours, we clearly indicated that the gold market would experience a reversal. After reaching a high of 4375, the gold price accurately surged and then fell back, with the trend completely in line with expectations.

On the fundamental side, the U.S. November unadjusted core CPI year-on-year recorded 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. This unexpected data opens up space for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates; the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and officials stated that the rate-cutting cycle is likely over; the Bank of England, on schedule, lowered the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, with Governor Bailey emphasizing that the pace of future rate cuts will slow down.

Today, we need to focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, potentially breaking the 0.5% mark for the first time in 20 years. Due to this expectation, there is a possibility of further pullback in gold prices.

On the market, gold is currently still in a high-level oscillation pattern. The surge and fall back from 4375 is a typical characteristic of oscillation markets, and whether it can break new highs remains uncertain. However, we believe that the short-term pullback influenced by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations will be a buildup for a second surge. In terms of operation, we continue to adhere to a strategy of primarily bullish positions with some bearish positions as a supplement.

Specific operational advice: Wait for the gold price to pull back to the 4310-4320 range, and confirm a stop-loss signal before laying out long positions. Avoid blindly chasing the rise, and seize market opportunities with a proactive strategy. $BTC

12.18 You Jin Bai Yin Early Market Analysis

From a technical structure perspective, the weekly level of the target recorded a long lower shadow bullish candlestick, which forms a strong support zone, providing technical endorsement for the medium-term bullish trend. In the 1-hour cycle, the rising trend structure that started from the low point of 62.14 is complete; the current price retreating to 65.99 is a technical correction following the gold trend and has not damaged the overall bullish pattern.

In terms of key price level games, the lower level of 65.85 is a short-term bull-bear dividing line, and the stability of this position will determine the strength of the intraday rebound; the upper level of 66.15 is a resistance level from previous highs, if effectively broken, the upward space can further open up to the range of 66.3-66.5, with the rhythm of support and resistance games clearly distinguishable.

Indicators and capital signals show that in the 1-hour chart, the range of 65.85-65.90 has shown obvious signs of capital support, with buying strength beginning to accumulate; at the same time, the MACD indicator operates above the zero axis. Although the red bars have decreased in volume, no death cross has formed, indicating that bullish momentum has not yet exhausted, further confirming the technical logic of low bullish layout.

Specific operational strategy

• Entry range: 65.5-65.8 light position layout for long positions

• Stop-loss defense: 65.0 (if effectively broken below, abandon the bullish idea)

• Target price: First target 66.5, second target 66.8. $BTC

December 18th Yu Jin's Gold Morning Analysis.

On December 18th, the gold market continued to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern. London gold is currently quoted at $4352.68 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.82% for the day; Gold T+D and Shanghai Gold main contract both rose, quoted at 981.5 yuan/gram (+0.55%) and 986.82 yuan/gram (+0.61%) respectively. Expectations for interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk aversion have formed strong support, but the accumulation of overbought pressure along with macro data disturbances requires caution regarding the risk of market corrections.

From a key price level perspective, the short-term support range for international gold prices is 4315-4330 dollars, with resistance above at 4360-4395 dollars. If it can stabilize above the 4365 dollar mark, gold prices are expected to attempt an assault on the 4395-4400 dollar range. The core logic driving gold prices upwards is clear: the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts are suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, significantly reducing the cost of holding gold; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, laying a solid demand foundation for gold prices; ongoing geopolitical conflicts in places like the U.S. and Russia-Ukraine are continuously generating increased safe-haven buying. However, upcoming U.S. CPI, non-farm payrolls, and other core data will become important variables for the market, and if the data performs better than expected, it may weaken market bets on interest rate cuts, triggering concentrated profit-taking.

The technical aspect shows a multi-cycle differentiation characteristic: the daily level bullish trend is solid, the moving average system forms effective support, the MACD golden cross continues above the zero axis, and the RSI indicator is neutrally biased strong, requiring caution against overbought pullback risks; the four-hour level Bollinger Bands are narrowing and leveling off, the MACD death cross is gradually converging, and the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought range, showing some signs of pullback pressure; the hourly level trend is relatively strong, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, the MACD golden cross is expanding in operation, and short-term bulls dominate.

Specific operation recommendations

Gold retracement to the 4330-4340 dollar range can be lightly bought, targeting 4365-4395 dollars; if the target range is broken with volume, it is likely to refresh historical highs; if the market fails to continue its upward momentum, a light short position can be taken. $BTC

Trump escalates sanctions against Venezuela, Brent crude rebounds in the short term amid geopolitical changes

Geopolitical turmoil once again stirs the international oil market. On December 16 local time, U.S. President Trump announced a significant escalation of sanctions via social media: officially designating the Maduro regime of Venezuela as a "foreign terrorist organization" and ordering a "comprehensive and thorough blockade" on all sanctioned tankers entering and exiting Venezuela. This move is viewed by the outside world as another hardline measure by the U.S. to pressure Venezuela, directly triggering market concerns about global oil supply.

Looking back at the recent U.S.-Venezuela game dynamics, this escalation of sanctions is not sudden. On December 10, U.S. military had already seized a tanker suspected of transporting Venezuelan and Iranian sanctioned oil in waters near Venezuela. The U.S. Treasury then updated the sanctions list on the 11th, adding 6 tankers as targets for sanctions; as early as the end of November, Trump had threatened possible land strikes against Venezuelan "drug traffickers," and the U.S. military's USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has also been deployed to the Caribbean region, a series of actions that continue to escalate regional tensions. The designation of the Venezuelan regime as a "foreign terrorist organization" and the blockade of tankers further intensify the sanctions, and Trump even claimed that Venezuela has been "surrounded by the largest fleet in South American history," with the fleet set to continue expanding, leading to a sharp increase in geopolitical risks that directly translates to the oil market.

Stimulated by this news, Brent crude futures, which had been steadily weakening, saw a short-term rebound. As of the December 16 trading session, Brent crude quickly rebounded from an intraday low of $58.72/barrel, reaching a high of $59.60/barrel, ultimately closing at $58.92/barrel. Although the overall daily decline was still recorded at 2.71%, the short-term rebound was significant, with the intraday maximum rebound reaching 1.5%, highlighting the short-term boost of geopolitical news on market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator shows an expanding red bar, and the KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross at a low level and is diverging upwards, both indicating that short-term bullish momentum is warming up, providing certain technical support for oil prices. $BTC

In the battlefield of financial trading, you will often be caught off guard by the gap market after the non-farm payroll data is released, with candlestick patterns rising and falling unexpectedly; you may also find yourself at a loss when a support level you've been holding onto suddenly breaks, watching the floating losses in your positions fluctuate without knowing what to do; you might be holding onto a losing position, staring at the candlestick patterns on the screen from dusk until dawn, filled with anxiety and reluctance; or you may miss out on a profitable market that should have been securely in your grasp due to a moment's hesitation, leaving you with a heart full of regret.

However, these awkward "predicaments" are never the end of your trading career. The positions you lost due to blindly holding onto trades can be regained by following Lin Ruizhe to understand the underlying logic of the market, pinpointing the key entry and exit points; in the next round of trading, you can double your profits with clear judgment.

You should know that the market will not always move in one direction, just as life will not always be stuck in a low point. Every long night you've spent watching candlestick patterns, every key point you've repeatedly calculated against support and resistance, is not a useless consumption but is silently paving the way for "profiting in the trend." The market you couldn't catch today will come back tomorrow; this time you couldn't withstand the severe fluctuations, but next time you will be able to stand firm.

Trading needs to be stable, and your mindset needs to be even more stable. Don't let temporary gains or losses throw you off balance; take it slow, there's no rush.

12.17 You Jin's Afternoon Gold Analysis

From the recent market characteristics, the market rhythm shows a clear pattern: the Asian session often experiences a wave of directional fluctuations, the European session mainly consists of range oscillations, while the American session frequently witnesses turning points, forming a cyclical pattern of "Asian session moves, European session settles, American session changes." Today, we still need to pay attention to whether this rhythm continues.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to continue using a fluctuation strategy throughout the day, focusing on the rhythm of first pulling back and then rebounding. Currently, the early session has already tested the pressure near 4339.85 (latest high for London gold), this level can be regarded as the primary resistance for the day, and it is advisable to first observe the pressure drop. The key support to focus on below is the 4300 integer level, followed by the 4285 area (daily MA5 support level), and further support is at the 4260 line (recent key support for pullbacks). If it falls back to the support area around the European session and shows signs of stabilization, we can consider setting up long positions to speculate on the rebound that may occur in the American session. The upper resistance to focus on is the 4350-4353 area (recent high concentration zone), with strong resistance near the historical high of 4381. $BTC

12.17 Youjin Gold Early Market Analysis

Yesterday, the spot gold showed a wide range of fluctuations, driven by the dual factors of rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, with gold prices briefly rising to around 4352, just a step away from the more than seven-week high set last Friday. However, as U.S. officials made substantial progress in talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky, market risk aversion quickly faded, and gold prices significantly retraced most of the intraday gains, ultimately closing with a slight increase of only 0.1%, reported at 4304.91.

Currently, global traders are focused on the upcoming U.S. heavy employment data, the performance of which will become the core basis for judging the subsequent monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. As of Tuesday (December 16) in the Asian market morning, spot gold maintained a slight upward trend, trading recently at 4350.92.

From a technical perspective, after gold prices broke through the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, they continued the upward momentum, with an overall technical pattern leaning bullish. In terms of resistance, around 4350 constitutes a short-term key resistance. If this level is effectively broken, gold prices are expected to launch an assault on the historical peak of 4381. On the support side, the previously broken neck line at 4250 has turned into a primary support level, followed by the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at 4233; if gold prices further dip, the 4180-4170 range is likely to attract buying power.

Momentum indicators show that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the overbought zone close to 80 to above 50, indicating a decrease in upward momentum; the ADX indicator value hovers in the 20-25 range, reflecting insufficient strength in the current market trend, as the market is in a phase of consolidation and has not yet formed a clear strong unilateral trend.

Operational Suggestions: Consider going long in the 4295-4305 range, targeting 4325-4355. If gold prices break through the target range with volume, further upward space may open; if the upward momentum cannot be sustained, a light position reversal to short may be considered.

Risk Warning: The above analysis is for reference only; investment carries risks, and trading should be based on actual market trends. $BTC $ETH

Gold short-term pullback! Non-farm data ignites the market tonight, the bull-bear showdown looks here

On Tuesday, gold in the Asian market directly plummeted, at one point falling below the $4300 mark, now fluctuating around $4285, a decline of 0.5%!

In the end, it’s still the futures traders taking profits, weak bulls closing positions that caused the sell-off, plus positive news from the Ukraine peace talks cooling risk aversion, which has led to a decline in gold demand.

But don’t be too quick to turn bearish! The Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut this year has landed, and it has signaled continued rate cuts in 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a strong support. However, the easing of geopolitical risks will also put pressure on gold prices to rise.

Tonight is the main event! The U.S. non-farm payroll report, retail sales, and PMI data will bombard the market, which are key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. If the employment data is weak, expectations for rate cuts will rise, and gold is likely to soar; on the contrary, gold prices may face selling pressure again.

Looking at the technical side: the overall trend remains bullish, with prices far above the 100-day EMA, the four-hour Bollinger Bands are opening, and the RSI is stabilizing at the midline, with short-term bullish momentum increasing.
Resistance above is initially seen at $4350, breaking through will target $4365 and $4381 historical highs; support below is focused on $4285, if broken, look at $4257, and further down is the key level of $4210 at the 100-day EMA.

In summary, gold is experiencing increased short-term volatility, with a positive long-term trend, and tonight's non-farm report is the "steering wheel" of the market! For those who are unsure, let’s discuss real-time strategies together to pinpoint accurate levels! #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC

12.16 Youjin Morning Silver Strategy

Non-farm data may have short-term disturbances on silver prices, but the overall direction of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle has not changed, and the bullish logic of silver's financial attributes remains solid. The dual support from the recovery of global industrial demand and geopolitical risk aversion still exists. Short-term profit-taking behavior and internal hawkish disagreements within the Federal Reserve will only trigger a brief price correction, making it difficult to reverse the medium- to long-term upward trend; moreover, there are clear signals of capital support at low market levels, laying a solid foundation for the bulls to exert strength later.

From a technical perspective, on the 1-hour chart, the rebound trend that started from the low of 60.79 is intact. The current price of 63.71 is operating below the previous high of 64.65, which is a typical accumulation and consolidation phase. This round of high-level fluctuations is a digestion of the previous gains, rather than a trend reversal signal, and the medium- to long-term upward channel remains intact.

On the indicator level, further verification of bullish momentum is seen, with capital support traces continuously appearing in the 63.0-63.5 range on the 1-hour chart; the MACD indicator is operating above the zero axis, although the red bars have decreased in volume, a dead cross has not formed, and the bullish advantage has not been damaged; the MA moving average system maintains a bullish arrangement, and the bearish selling pressure has gradually been released, with bulls accumulating momentum waiting for a breakthrough of previous highs.

Trading Suggestions

• Entry Point: Light positions in the 62.9-63.5 range for bullish layouts

• Stop Loss: 62.5

• Target Prices: First target 64.0, second target 65.0

12.15 You Jin Golden Morning Analysis
Good morning to all investors in the new week!

Looking back at last Friday's market, gold experienced a drastic "roller coaster" trend, quickly surging to around 4353 before plummeting during the midnight period, reaching a low of around 4257. The daily volatility exceeded a hundred dollars, ultimately closing at the key level of 4300, with intense bullish and bearish competition.

Based on the closing pattern analysis, the bullish trend in gold remains unshaken, and this week will continue the upward momentum. The continuity of the technical trend resonates with favorable international news, indicating a clear mid-term upward direction.

Core trading strategy: Always adhere to the principle of buying on the dip, align with the main market trend, and strictly prohibit counter-trend short selling.

• Support range: Focus on 4290-4296; a pullback to this range without breaking it will be an excellent buying opportunity.

• Target range: 4330-4340$BTC $ETH

Silver skyrockets, crushing gold! The threefold resonance of 'finance + industry + supply and demand' reveals the core logic of this market trend!

In the precious metals market of 2025, silver has completely shaken off the tag of being a 'shadow asset' of gold, entering a wave of explosive growth. As of December 10, the spot silver price in London has first crossed the $60 per ounce mark, with an increase of over 100% from the beginning of the year, while the same period saw an increase of only about 27% for spot gold in London, crowning silver as the 'leader of precious metals' with nearly four times the growth of gold. The domestic market has also erupted synchronously, with the main contract for Shanghai silver futures breaking through the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark, achieving a year-to-date increase of 92.8%, setting a new high since its listing. This wave of growth is by no means a short-term speculative hype, but a threefold resonance of 'financial attributes igniting + industrial demand exploding + supply and demand structure imbalance', with a clear core logic and solid support!

1. Financial attributes as the main engine: interest rate cut expectations + valuation recovery, funds pouring in wildly

The financial attributes of silver are the core driving force behind this round of explosive growth, with its sensitivity to macro policies even far exceeding that of gold:

• Interest rate cut expectations directly ignite the market: the market's expectation of an 80% probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, coupled with a 10.3% decline in the US dollar index this year and sustained pressure on US Treasury yields, has led to a frenzy of buying for silver as a non-yielding asset, driven by its value as a safe haven and inflation hedge. Global funds are accelerating their inflow, with total holdings of COMEX silver futures and options up 35.08% from the beginning of the year, while the trading volume of domestic Shanghai silver futures has skyrocketed by 847.66%, with bulls pushing the market into a squeeze.

• Market characteristics amplify explosive power: Compared to gold, the silver market is smaller and more concentrated in liquidity, with stronger speculative attributes. This characteristic causes silver to react more violently to interest rate changes; once funds enter the market, the increase can quickly reach its limit, ultimately achieving a 'crushing' rise against gold.

• Gold-silver ratio repair boosts further gains: In 2024, the gold-silver ratio briefly soared to a historical high of 120:1, severely undervaluing silver; as of December 3, this ratio has fallen back to 46.7:1. Although returning to a rational range, there is still room for further repair, becoming a key driver for boosting silver. #比特币VS代币化黄金

The Federal Reserve's dovish meeting this time has released a clear signal of easing, providing strong and multidimensional bullish support for gold prices. The specific impacts can be analyzed from the following two dimensions:

1. Direct Drivers: Rate cuts combined with the initiation of bond purchases put downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

1. The continuation of the easing cycle enhances the attractiveness of non-interest assets: This rate cut of 25 basis points marks the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut. Although some committee members prefer to keep rates unchanged, the direction of policy easing is clear. The drop in rates directly weakens the yield characteristics of the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields decline in tandem, resulting in a significant reduction in the holding costs of gold, which is a typical non-interest asset, and a notable increase in the willingness to allocate funds.

2. Liquidity injection further weakens the dollar's status: The Federal Reserve announced that starting from December 12, it will implement a $40 billion Treasury bill purchase plan within 30 days. This move is equivalent to releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market, further diluting the dollar's dual advantages of 'safe haven + yield' and indirectly raising the allocation value and market demand for gold.

2. Medium-term Support: The combination of interest rate outlook and economic inflation solidifies gold's dual core attributes.

1. The interest rate path is clear, and the mid-term upward logic is solid: The dot plot maintains expectations for one rate cut in the next two years, releasing a clear signal that policy will not quickly shift to tightening. The mid-term upward logic of gold relying on the easing monetary cycle remains intact.

2. The contradiction between economic inflation boosts gold demand in both directions.

◦ Economic Aspect: The Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth forecast for the next three years but simultaneously emphasized the high uncertainty in the economic outlook and the ongoing rise in employment downward risks. The market's concerns about economic growth will activate gold's safe-haven attributes, attracting safe-haven funds to enter the market.

◦ Inflation Aspect: The Federal Reserve acknowledges that current inflation remains high while lowering next year's inflation expectations. This combination preserves gold's anti-inflation value while alleviating market concerns about 'high inflation forcing rate hikes,' forming a moderate bullish support for gold.

In the short term, the intensive easing signals released from this meeting will directly drive gold to continue its bullish trend after breaking through $4230; from a medium-term perspective, the continuation of the policy easing cycle, the uncertainty in the economic outlook, and a moderate inflation environment will collectively enhance gold's three attributes of safe haven, anti-inflation, and non-interest assets. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut ignites the market! Gold violently surges to a new high, silver breaks historical records!

　　The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday (December 10) local time that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, in line with general market expectations. However, after the decision was announced, the US dollar index fell sharply, hitting a low of 98.59, a new low in a month and a half, closing at 98.65, a decline of about 0.6%, recording the largest single-day drop in nearly three months; the 10-year US Treasury yield also fell by 0.88 percentage points to 4.192%, marking the largest single-day decline in a month and a half.

　　Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and US Treasury yields, spot gold quickly recovered from early losses, rebounding strongly after dipping to around 4182, reaching a high of 4238.59, a new high in nearly three trading days, and finally closing at 4228.47, with a single-day increase of about 0.5%. Spot silver performed even more brilliantly, breaking and stabilizing above the $61 level, reaching a high of $61.92 per ounce, breaking historical records, with a cumulative increase of up to 113% this year. On Thursday (December 11), in the early Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, currently trading around 4240.

　　Looking at the technical side, on the 4-hour chart, gold prices previously broke below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, testing the support at 4170, with MACD's death cross releasing bearish momentum. However, the bulls made a strong counterattack in the US session, with MACD's dual lines hovering near the zero axis, temporarily balancing the bulls and bears, and with the favorable effects of the interest rate cut being digested, buying interest warmed up, stabilizing gold prices!

　　As for the daily chart, it's needless to say, gold prices have been steadily oscillating above 4200, with the short-term moving averages flattening, and MACD's dual lines converging, a typical accumulation pattern before a big market trend! Moreover, gold prices have consistently remained above most short-term moving averages, with lows gradually rising, indicating a strong consolidation, not a trend reversal; the next uptrend is the main theme!

　　Therefore, on Thursday, continue to rely on the levels of 4206-4200 and 4190 for phased long positions, with targets set at the higher points of 4250-4260;

　　(Kind reminder: The above suggestions are for reference only, trading risks are borne by the trader; the above strategies and analyses do not have timeliness; for more real-time short-term strategies, ultra-short-term strategies, medium to long-term strategies/risk control plans/trading plan customization, please join my practical department to obtain them) #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

Golden afternoon probing met resistance, reaching the location of Dandan's entry mentioned in our text, successfully holding the 4200 line and starting to rebound, with more than 10 points of space #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.10 Silver Analysis

The overnight precious metals market welcomed a strong trend, with the world's largest silver ETF increasing its holdings by 84.62 tons, becoming a core driving force. International silver prices have broken through the key $60 level, with a daily increase of over 4%, leading the precious metals sector. Platinum and palladium also rose by 2%, forming a correlated upward trend in the sector.

It is worth noting that the current volatility of silver has surged to three times the historical level, and market trading sentiment has become increasingly 'nervous.' In the short term, the strong push from funds combined with technical breakthroughs may drive silver into a high-volatility cycle, with daily fluctuations of over 5% becoming the norm, and even the possibility of extreme conditions with a single-day increase of 10%, necessitating caution regarding volatility risks in trading.

Compared to silver's sharp rise, gold is currently in a phase of consolidation and preparation, adopting a posture of 'waiting for a catalyst.' Tonight, the market focus will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. From a policy perspective, the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair is leaning towards the dovish camp, and this expectation will provide long-term upward support for gold prices.

It is important to clarify that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are not the core logic of this round of the precious metals bull market; the process of de-dollarization is the main contradiction driving the trend. For tracking this main line, one can closely monitor the central bank's gold purchases, which is a core indicator— as long as global central banks continue to increase their precious metal reserves, the underlying support of the precious metals bull market will remain unshaken. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and other liquidity easing policies are merely 'add-ons' on top of the main logic of the bull market, further amplifying the upward elasticity.

Additionally, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut not only benefits the precious metals market but also positively impacts the A-share market. The accommodative global liquidity environment will lower market funding costs, inject incremental capital into the equity market, and help restore market risk appetite. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.10 Youjin Gold Morning Analysis

Gold rebounded after hitting a low of 4170 yesterday, closing with a small gain on the daily chart and stabilizing above the MA10 moving average. Overall, it continues to operate within the upper middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with initial signs of bullish momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to converge, the RSI indicator has stabilized at the mid-level, and the moving average system shows a bonding state, intensifying the short-term bullish and bearish battle; the hourly chart shows that after the price rebound, the Bollinger Bands and moving average system are diverging upwards in sync, with prices consistently staying in the upper middle band region, indicating strong short-term rebound momentum.

From a technical perspective, the previous adjustments have not yet fully concluded, and the alternating pattern of bullish and bearish trends continues. However, the current bullish side holds a certain advantage, suggesting that intra-day operations should primarily focus on buying on dips. Key attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech at 3 AM today, as the market's expectation for a rate cut is as high as 80%. If the decision meets or exceeds expectations, it may trigger significant fluctuations in gold prices.
Suggestion:
Gold can be bought in batches near 4185-4195, targeting 4225, with a breakout target of 4230. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

Trading cryptocurrencies and gold, total losses? It turns out 90% of people have misunderstood the relationship between 'analysis' and 'trading'!\n\nIn these years of financial investment, I have finally figured out a key question: why do some people who don't understand the fundamentals still make a fortune? While I dig through industry chain data and piles of research reports, I still can't escape being trapped?\n\nThe answer is actually very simple: analysis and trading are fundamentally two different things; being biased in one will lead to losses!\n\nWhen I first entered the industry, the team emphasized every day that "mastering the fundamentals = mastering the market." I dove into research, digging from the upstream to the downstream of the industry chain, hoping to find the 'wealth code' that others hadn't discovered. I indeed made money with this approach, but watching my friends have only a vague understanding of the fundamentals yet steadily profit left me completely confused—was research useless?\n\nI later understood that investment returns are like a 'dual engine':\n\n• Analysis helps you improve your judgment accuracy, telling you 'whether to do it';\n\n• Trading helps you adjust the risk-reward ratio, teaching you 'how to do it'.\n\nFund management companies have long figured this out: researchers are responsible for finding direction and providing conclusions, while traders are responsible for designing strategies and executing buy-sell actions. Some focus on research, while others emphasize trading; there is no good or bad distinction, the key is not to confuse your own role!\n\nFor ordinary investors, we should be 'qualified traders' rather than 'perfect researchers'. Research reports can give you ideas, but they cannot make money for you—the real security comes from a complete plan for building positions, adding positions, reducing positions, and cutting positions. It's like playing chess; before making a move, you must think of all possible responses from your opponent, so that you won't panic when the market suddenly changes.\n\nNow the market is becoming increasingly volatile, even if you analyze the fundamentals clearly, a sudden piece of news can skew the market. How many people blindly followed the bullish analysis reports without any risk control, and ended up being severely punished by the market?\n\nRemember: analysis is the map that guides you, while trading is the boat that takes you across the river. Having only a map without a boat will still not get you to the other side! #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.9 You Jin Afternoon Gold Analysis
Today's gold market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with the mainstream expectation being a rate cut of 25 basis points. However, attention must be paid to the **“hawkish rate cut”** risk—if the Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation stickiness and signals a pause in further rate cuts, it will likely exert pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine and increasing uncertainty in international trade policies provide strong safe-haven support for gold prices. Under the interplay of long and short factors, the short-term market is characterized by volatility.

• Support Range: First support at 4180-4185, this range has been confirmed as an effective support level through multiple recent retests; second support at 4170, which is the lifeline for short-term bulls.

• Resistance Range: First resistance at 4210-4215, a breakout here is expected to open up upward potential; strong resistance at 4240-4245, which is a key pressure point for the phase.
Before the Federal Reserve meeting concludes, gold prices are likely to maintain range-based fluctuations, and a breakout will require waiting for policy signals and Powell's speech guidance.

Intraday Short-term Trading Plan
Enter long positions in batches as prices fall to the 4173-4178 range, with a stop loss set at $4166 (strict exit if breaking the second support), targeting 4210-4220. Once the first resistance range is reached, consider reducing positions and observing.
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