我是X先生

$BTC “Cutting a boat to seek a sword”—once, how should Bitcoin’s long positions be handled?
In the 2022 bear market, if counted from the highest point to the time Bitcoin bottomed and broke the bear-to-bull (bull/bear) conversion line, the weekly-level MSB took roughly 450 days (Fig. 1). After breaking 25211, during the period 25211—weekly OB, a horizontal box-like range was formed for about 22 days (Fig. 2). It then retested the area around 25211 twice to test overhead supply and wash out the market, followed by a breakout above the top of the range, starting a main uptrend that “never looks back.”
As for the current bear-to-bull conversion, it has only taken 350 days to complete the structure (Fig. 3), which is 100 days less than the previous cycle. The main players may be a bit impatient, but that also suggests the market’s consensus is currently fairly good: major institutions are “accumulating,” and at the very least this leaves room for imagination regarding the next leg up.
What might happen next? There is no price action that rises without pullbacks. If it goes up too much, it must come down—that’s inevitable. It’s only the depth of the pullback that’s unknown. If, going forward, capital continues to flow in strongly and overhead supply remains relatively small, it could form a range-bound consolidation between 75–98, or even 85–929. Of course, it could also form other consolidation patterns—like a bull flag. All of these are normal. Therefore, long-term longs shouldn’t be in a hurry: wait until a structure and pattern are clearly formed, then enter. One reason is to look for the lower point of the pullback; the other is to look for the breakout point. Those two long-term entry locations must be grasped.
Since there is no completely consistent price trajectory, the “cutting a boat to seek a sword” here is about copying the main players’ operational mindset.

(Of course, if the pullback breaks below 75, that would be even better—but will the main players really give an opportunity to pick up cheap chips? Who knows.)

#USDT.D From USDT.P: Assessing the likelihood that the bear market is over
Figure 1: Weekly chart. Two swing highs formed near the previous high, creating a bearish divergence. Structurally, it also shows a weekly-level MSB. This can be interpreted as: the bear market has effectively ended! Of course, the end of the bear market does not mean Bitcoin won’t make new lows, but it is clear that from the current 82 level—or any new high this week (if there is one)—a further drop would be a correction, not a brand-new downturn. The difference lies in the depth of the correction.
Spot traders: your last opportunity to enter spot is about to come. Once the correction ends, BTC will rise quickly to around 90 and will not drop back below 82 again. You can refer to the earlier accumulation post: Bitcoin is currently in the “last sell-off” phase of the accumulation cycle, with panic selling already beginning to be absorbed.
Figure 2: Daily chart. A bullish divergence forms at the bottom. Break above the blue line confirms the formation of the bottom. Traders on the right side can wait for a retest and then short BTC.

$BTC is 855 again. Are there really that many empty slots? I’ll stop for now… You guys do it.

$BTC , I hope it goes this way.

Perhaps because $XRP has fallen so much, its rebound and break above resistance have been relatively smooth.

$BTC Something feels off.
Bitcoin is nearing resistance, but ETH, SOL, and the other altcoins are only seeing weak bounces and haven't reached the corresponding levels relative to Bitcoin. There are three possibilities: one is that, as mentioned in my previous tweet, Bitcoin continues moving sideways near the highs to cover for the other coins as they rise, then they all sell off together once they reach their levels. Another is that 84 is the bounce high, and Bitcoin sells off directly without waiting for the other coins. The least likely possibility is that it fills the OB around 86 before dropping.
Keep watching closely and trade cautiously.

$LIT Analysis
Figure 1, daily timeframe: The rounded bottom formed a very solid base. After the breakout, the retest held, kicking off the main uptrend. So far, there have been two upward waves, and we may now be in a correction. Once the correction is complete, a third upward wave may follow—though this is only a possibility, not a certainty. Price is currently at the top of the first wave, where at the very least we should see a daily-timeframe bounce. That’s the basis for taking a long position.
Figure 2, 4H timeframe: The 4H OB, together with support at the previous high, is still fairly strong. Price has formed a 4H MSB, so wait for a pullback. There are two opportunities to go long below, with a stop-loss at the low. Above, the minimum target could be the OB around 4. If price breaks through, a new uptrend may begin, although the probability is relatively low.
So, the current strategy is to go long on a pullback, initially targeting the OB around 4, while also keeping an eye on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin drops from around 84 at this point, take profit. If Bitcoin breaks above 84, see whether price can break through the OB around 4, and take a chance on a low-probability outcome: a fifth wave up!

$BTC If the retest of 82 holds here, it could move sideways at a high level. Wait for the other altcoins to rebound to their targets one by one, then there could be another wave of selling. Just a guess, no logic behind it.
If it drops again to 807, that would just be infuriating. More sideways movement.

$ZEC If you don't have a position, you can wait for ZEC. Use a small position with low leverage, and take profits gradually at higher levels.

By eight o’clock, it was already clear the price was going to rise. I thought it would dip first and leave a wick, but I didn’t expect it to go straight up. Oh well, at least it’s a consolation prize.

Break through, $SOL

After the $BTC 829 liquidity grab, it’s consolidating and drifting lower on the lower timeframe. Watch how it reacts at 806. If it breaks below, 80 may not hold, and it could continue dropping. Hopefully, 80 gets rejected with a wick.

What happened? A complete reversal in just one minute?

$BTC plundered 829. I expect a deep pullback, so it’s better to go long at lower levels rather than short. If you want to short, follow what I wrote in the previous post: short at 84 or 85.

$BTC Looks like it's about to go up. Judging by the reaction here at 84, it's a wick hunt to liquidate shorts.

I only bought SOL; if it starts weakening, I'll get out right away.

The previous post about $CRCL got quite a bit of traction, so today I’m keeping the momentum going with an update on another crypto-related US stock I’m bullish on—$MSTR
On the weekly chart, MSTR is weaker than Bitcoin and CRCL. It hasn’t even formed a large-scale MSB bullish structure. Still, there’s no denying that I remain very optimistic about this stock’s prospects, with at least 3–4x upside potential, if not more.
Looking at the chart on the weekly timeframe: if the price pulls back but holds above 101–104, successfully forms a bottom, and then rises, it will most likely be a PO3 structure. The eight weeks of decline and choppy trading from late June to mid-August would have been a false breakdown—shaking out panic sellers and letting big players accumulate shares from those selling in fear. Then a single bullish candle breaks out without a retest, leaving no chance to get in. Next, if it pulls back along with Bitcoin but doesn’t fall below the range, it could consolidate above 101–104 to test whether there’s still selling pressure. Once Bitcoin begins its second major upward leg, it’ll be time for MSTR to put on a show. The first target above is 457; the second is the previous high. If it breaks above that high, then it all depends on just how wild this bull market gets.
If it breaks below 101, it could fall further and test lower levels again. That’s less likely, but still possible.
Of course, all of this depends on the crypto bear market ending and a bull market truly arriving.

$CRCL is most likely about to begin the small third wave within the third wave.
The red five-wave structure is an expected five-wave move on the weekly chart. We are currently in the early stage of wave three, with a target around 262.
The blue line shows a smaller five-wave move within wave three. As long as the low at 75 is not broken, the pullback is most likely over and an upward move is about to begin. If it breaks below, the next levels to watch are 67.6 and 63.04. You can enter the spot market directly and hold until the final target of 262.

$XAU Damn, I forgot to check gold. It broke above 4228, and the second rebound wave has begun. The upside target is 48XX.

At $BTC , even if it comes down here, you can still go long.