静静看趋势

In fact, the sentiment of BSC has also reached a critical point; the market is not short of money, it is definitely confidence.

I heard they have gone to Sol again, but for me, past, present, and future, I only love BSC the most, using Binance Wallet to engage with BSC meme.

It seems like every time there is a rate cut, it goes like this: a surge beforehand, and when it's actually announced, it basically drops; this time is no exception. Yesterday, $btc was directly at over 94000 just 20 minutes before the announcement, and then it slowly dropped when it was announced. Today, it has even dropped to the 8s. Watching the rebound seems quite powerless; as a super bull, I can only continue to wait.

$Plume now has 5 nest vaults on sol, and the apr is quite high. Deposit stablecoins, convert them into yield-bearing tokens, and just hold them to earn apr. However, the redemption time for nests is generally quite long.

$Stable hasn't announced any major exchanges since the tge, but today it announced that Han 2 has gone up a bit and now it's down again. At this point, it's hard to go long, and it's hard to go short; it's not fun.

Msx currently has a Christmas event where new registered users can enter a lottery if their first spot trade exceeds 100u. I've heard that you can win an iPhone 17 pro. I heard a long time ago that there would be a tge in December, but so far, I haven't seen any news. I also hope to receive some airdrop from the m beans I exchanged with liquidation.

It's another rest time on-chain.

The current market can be described as the most useless among the useless, and the right-side faction is shaking their heads. It can't go up or down, just oscillating between 85K and 95K.

The structure was the same from March to May this year, but back then the choice was to go up; this time it's more dangerous.

I personally expect the turning point window to be around January 2026. It depends on whether it breaks the level and then pulls back, or goes sideways and then pulls directly?

Let's wait for a big wave before chasing.

The Federal Reserve will provide its last answer of the year in the early morning.

The market has already determined a 25 basis point rate cut - with a probability of 89.4%. Both smart money and retail investors are waiting for the same thing.

In fact, everyone has a sense of whether there will be a rate cut; the key is how the expectations will be mapped out after the cut.

If it's just a routine 25 basis point cut, accompanied by a roadmap indicating no further cuts expected next year, the market is likely to turn directly downward afterwards.

Ordinary traders often fail to understand the essence of trading; the biggest obstacle is not technology or mindset, but rather that the sample size is always insufficient.

A few successful trades may seem like they have grasped the rules, but from a statistical perspective, they are nearly meaningless.

Short-term consecutive profits do not prove the effectiveness of a method; they more reflect short-term noise, market sentiment fluctuations, or even just a coincidence where a certain market trend aligns with your preferences.

You might think you understand the market, but in reality, you are just being carried by luck within a small sample.

True trading cognition must be built on a sufficient number of observations and validations. You need to see if the same method still holds true across different cycles, different volatility structures, and different market conditions.

If it only works "just right" in certain market conditions, it indicates that what you have is a coincidence, not a skill.

BTC Market Analysis:

The big coin saw another surge last night, breaking through the previous high point, but faced resistance near that high point, with significant selling pressure above!

Currently, it is facing resistance and is adjusting downwards again. The interest rate decision is coming soon, and the probability of a rate cut is quite high, which is basically stable now. It remains to be seen whether the market will rise in response after the rate cut is announced or if the positive news will turn negative!

The resistance area above is evident, so continue to pay attention to it. Additionally, keep an eye on the response near the significant pressure level of 98k! The lower points are rising, and support is also increasing; currently, pay attention to the support level around 88k!

In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve's decision is imminent. The time for clarity is approaching, with the market expecting an 86% chance of a rate cut. However, from the current market sentiment and liquidity perspective, even if it happens, it will be just a sound of a boot dropping, with limited splash.

1. The probability of a rate cut is as high as 86%, and a reduction of 25 basis points is basically a consensus. The market has already celebrated in advance, so beware of the old script of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' reappearing; don't get too carried away.

2. Dot plot: The focus is on the interest rate path for 2026. Currently, the market is betting on two rate cuts. If there are hints of more than two cuts, it means the Federal Reserve is determined to keep liquidity flowing long-term, and the global liquidity feast will continue. If there are hints of fewer than two cuts, or even just one, it signals a tightening and warns the market not to be too optimistic; funds will panic instantly and flee risk assets.

3. Balance sheet expansion: The Federal Reserve has stopped balance sheet reduction (QT). The ultimate question is whether the next step will be a reverse balance sheet expansion (QE). Once even a hint of balance sheet expansion is released, it will be equivalent to an official announcement that 'new money is on the way.' This will be a tsunami-level positive development, ten times more powerful than a rate cut, and all risk assets will enter a frenzied bull market.

The current market situation is either a rebound or a brewing before a reversal. The answer will be revealed soon; be patient!!!

2025.12.9 10:39 AM BTC/ETH Today's Trend Analysis
Last night BTC hit 89700 and shouted to let you take action, those who listened made profits, while those who didn't could only stare blankly. In the early morning, it rebounded to a maximum of 91338, creating a space of 1660+, enough for 800/1500 profits. Last night I already said you could not set a stop-loss, but you must set a take-profit, for example, 40% at 90500, 40% at 90800-91200! At this moment, isn’t this just gradually taking profits while keeping the bottom position? With the loss set to breakeven, it becomes a zero-risk game!
BTC
Support 87250/82845
Resistance 96422/102400
Key levels 88035/92228 The current trend has a bit of a pre-explosion feel, giving you a weak trend that makes you feel like it can’t rise anymore, and it even tries to lure you into shorting multiple times. At least for today and tomorrow, I still maintain an optimistic outlook. Whether the specific Federal Reserve interest rate decision will change the forecast will have to wait until after it lands to see the trend. Based on the current trend, unless it breaks, it will eventually touch 96422 and 102400 again!
ETH
Support 2941/2749
Resistance 3400/3592
3170 has been tested multiple times, whether it will be tested again below 3000, we will quietly wait. In the next test, it will be another opportunity to enter;
In terms of operations: Isn’t the volatile rise and fall the market you like? Without volatility, there’s no profit effect. Even with volatility, if you’re still not making money, then it’s not a problem with the market; the fundamental reason for not making money is your operation issues;
The size of your position depends on how much you can bear, how much capital you have left after losses, and how many opportunities you have. Many people often confuse this. Today, continue to look for opportunities to go long while maintaining some patience during this pullback!

For 10 years, I've been saying that housing prices are too high, and then real estate prices dropped, but no one bought...

For 2 years, I've been saying that BTC is too expensive, and then BTC also dropped in price, yet still no one bought...

It is clear that buying behavior is based on optimistic expectations, rather than simply the price being high or low.

A classic meme faces a dilemma on sol: the funding attention on sol switches too quickly, with new hot topics emerging every day. The classic meme community lacks the necessary development period, making it difficult to achieve long-term balance in price consensus and cultural consensus.

BTC Market Analysis:

The Bitcoin price is starting to consolidate at a relatively high level, digesting the emotions brought by this wave of increase. The overall parallel channel is still effective, and the upper edge has not been touched. If it starts to decline from here, pay attention to the central line around 90500!

The overall rhythm is still in a rebound phase, and no reversal has occurred. The rebound has formed a parallel channel, so for now, just focus on the reactions at the upper and lower edges of the channel! This is not a trending phase; it is recommended to operate primarily based on segments and not to get too carried away!

Recently, the topic of interest rate hikes in Japan has become the biggest variable affecting the financial markets after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is not just a domestic issue; it is a 'pricing anchor' concerning global capital costs. If the Federal Reserve controls the faucet's switch, then the Bank of Japan controls the water temperature. The sharp drop last August was a 'shock therapy,' and the current hawkish signals are akin to 'boiling a frog in warm water.' Although there won't be an instantaneous crash, it will continuously siphon off speculative liquidity from the market.

The price of U has dropped, the sky has fallen, and I have all the U prepared for buying at the bottom. I guess one reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in December, and the other reason is that the University of Tokyo continues to crack down on virtual currencies, especially targeting money laundering and illegal currency exchange involving stablecoins, leading many people to sell their U, hahahaha, damn it.

In some places, virtual currencies are recognized because they are free and democratic, and the people have the right to choose, while in other places, some officials see the common people as fish and meat, and the national treasury as private property, squandering without restraint. We have internal pests.

FARTCOIN
After a good increase, FARTCOIN went fully direct last time!

Now at the current price, I've entered a small position to go long again, with a stop loss at 0.35 and the target remains what was previously mentioned, 0.48-0.5!

After breaking through the trendline channel and pulling back twice, this time it shouldn't be a scam, right?

Recently, the FIR ecological project has seen a significant increase in trading activity on the Alpha platform. This project combines AI with the music industry, and ecological construction continues to advance, with multiple collaborative singles performing outstandingly in the market. Among them, Kay Tse's new work "Cheng Guang Zhu Meng" has accumulated over 100 million plays on Tencent Music platform, ranking high on the charts and continuously contributing stable copyright revenue.
Latest updates show that the project team has released a development plan, expecting that by 2026, annual revenue based on music copyrights is likely to exceed $30 million. At the end of December this year, they plan to launch the "Copyright Pledge Pool" feature, at which time users participating in FIR liquidity provision (FIR-LP) can receive 50% of the pool's profit share (distributed in USDT).
Currently, the overall market value of FIR is approximately $6 million, still in the early stages of development. With business progress and market attention driving each other, combined with the current increase in trading volume and expectations for subsequent mechanism implementation, its valuation has certain growth potential. Investors should pay attention to its future developments based on their own judgment, be aware of market volatility risks, and make decisions cautiously.

This market is not pricing facts, but pricing fantasies

The market is ultimately driven by confidence and emotions:

Recently, I don't know if everyone has seen this truth:
The crypto market has never been priced based on fundamentals, nor based on data; fundamentals and data are merely the results of narrative changes, while emotions and confidence are the main drivers!

Because the market is fundamentally not rational and linear, after the significant drop on 1011, the lack of liquidity in the market is just a surface issue, but the real problem is that confidence has been shaken; after the collapse of confidence, even good news will be seen as bad news, and a slight rise will be seen as an opportunity to sell; however, if confidence returns, every bullish candle might be interpreted as a new cycle.

So when you see the market rising, there are good news everywhere, but when it's falling, there is bad news everywhere!

If you don't believe it, search today; everyone will see quite a lot of good news today.

So do you think the market is pricing facts? Wrong! In fact, the market has always been pricing fantasies: most of the time, what can be different in the market mainly depends on the inner thoughts of market participants;

Prices are merely the average of everyone's fantasies: in a market driven by emotions, the value of all information depends on what the market currently wants to believe.

So, family, what do you believe in now?

Is this wave a rebound from a scam or a reversal after the washout is complete?

Come on, vote: let's see if we can avoid the emotional extremes of most people!