Bit 钱多多

Tonight at 23:00, keep an eye on this data! The U.S. September Core PCE is about to ignite the market, so be prepared in advance

$BTC Brothers, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night! At 23:00 Beijing time, the U.S. will release the September Core PCE data, which is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve cares about most. The result will directly determine the interest rate cut pace of the Federal Reserve in December, and subsequently ignite the short-term trends of risk assets such as Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.

Why is this data so critical?

The current market expects the year-on-year growth rate of the September Core PCE to be 2.9%, consistent with previous figures. However, if the actual data is lower than 2.9%, it may strengthen the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, pushing Bitcoin and other risk assets to rebound; if the data is higher than 2.9%, it implies that inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, possibly leading the market to face a new round of selling pressure.

$ETH Recently, market sentiment has been weak. Just this past Monday, the cryptocurrency market fell sharply across the board, with Bitcoin dropping below $86,000 and Ethereum falling below $2,900. Over 210,000 liquidation events occurred within 24 hours. Traders are generally in a wait-and-see state, Bitcoin ETF capital inflows are sparse, and dip buyers are absent, leading to persistent structural resistance in the market.

How should investors respond tonight?

1. Short-term avoid high leverage: Fluctuations will intensify before and after the data is released, and high-leverage positions are easily cleaned out;

2. Focus on key levels: If Bitcoin effectively breaks below $86,000, be wary of further deterioration in sentiment;

3. Pay attention to capital flows: If the data is weak but the coin price does not create new lows, it may imply that the main force is accumulating at low levels.

Historical experience shows that market fluctuations often significantly amplify after PCE data is released. For example, in late September, Bitcoin once plummeted more than 5% in a single day, partly due to market concerns about PCE data triggering liquidation of leveraged positions. Tonight, focus on the support strength of Bitcoin at the $86,000 level after the data is released, as well as whether major cryptocurrencies can stabilize.

After the data is released, I will analyze it in conjunction with real-time capital movements and technical signals in the community. Feel free to share your strategic judgments and capture opportunities in the volatility together!

Remember: Surviving is the key to waiting for your own market. #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #ETH走势分析

Family, the real situation of USDT over-the-counter trading recently may be more severe than you think — what used to be considered 'stepping on mines' is now simply 'stepping on bombs'.

I have been in this industry for ten years, and recently communicating with friends in the judicial circle revealed a key change: many previous over-the-counter trades were classified as aiding information network crime (aiding crime), but now many cases skip the aiding crime and are directly prosecuted for concealing and hiding criminal proceeds (concealment crime).

What does this mean? The cost of illegal activities has escalated from 'fines and reprimands' to 'actual imprisonment', with the maximum sentence rising from 3 years to 7 years.

Why has it changed like this?​

The threshold for being charged with aiding crime has recently been raised, and many small, low-frequency trades do not meet the filing standards;
but the concealment crime does not look at trading frequency or volume; as long as the funds are suspected of being criminal, and you participate in the transfer, you may be involved in the case.

The concealment crime focuses on two actions + one identity:​
Whether you receive funds of unknown origin (even if you claim 'not knowing', law enforcement may still determine 'should know');
Whether complex operations are conducted (such as immediately buying U after receiving funds, cross-platform transfers), such actions are easily identified as 'aiding in the transfer of stolen funds';
If you are regarded as an 'insider', be careful — judicial authorities may consider you to have a higher obligation to identify risks.

The scenarios where ordinary people are most likely to fall into traps:​

Buying and paying on behalf of others for 'exchange rate discounts';

Frequent 'small amount test' transactions;

Using personal cards for receiving and making payments and immediately performing currency-to-currency conversions.

There is a real case: someone was investigated for a 20,000 yuan transfer of unknown origin, quickly buying U and then transferring it out, currently cooperating with the investigation on the concealment crime.

If you want to reduce risks, pay attention to three points:​

Verify the identity of the payer to avoid receiving large transfers from unfamiliar accounts;

Avoid immediately transferring to multiple addresses on-chain after a single transaction;

Keep records of transaction communications to respond to potential evidence collection needs.

Over-the-counter trading itself does not violate the law, but once involved in unknown fund flows, the cost of proving one's innocence will be very high. Those who can genuinely engage in this industry for the long term are not competing on how many channels they have, but on the strength of their risk awareness.

Follow me! Next time we'll get straight to the hard dishes, play safely with U and avoid stepping on mines! #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #特朗普加密新政 $ETH

When Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL are simultaneously stuck in stagnation, bearish signals are clearly visible on the hourly candlestick chart — but I did not open a position in the real market; instead, I quietly opened the demo account.

From a technical perspective, this position is indeed an ideal shorting point. But those who have truly experienced a volatile market know that the margin for error during a transition period between bulls and bears is extremely low. Most traders are watching the same signals, and once the consolidation ends prematurely and the market violently surges, the clustered short positions can easily be collectively squeezed, resulting in a mutual slaughter of bulls and bears.

So, when is the real moment to take action? My answer is: wait until the trend completely shifts to one side, rather than betting on the direction too early.
Having been in this market for a while, I am increasingly clear: frequent trades are not as effective as a critical strike. Those who truly survive are not the ones who predict best, but the ones who understand waiting the most. Like a hunter, spending most of the time observing and only pulling the trigger when the prey is fully in range.

If you often find yourself washed out of the market due to entering too early, it might be wise to slow down. There’s no need to catch every fluctuation; just take action in the market conditions you are confident about. The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is the patience to protect your capital.

We can analyze the direction together, and we will face the risks together. If you don’t want to endure these entangled moments alone, feel free to reach out to me for a discussion. Calm your mind to clearly see the trend; hold your position to wait for the market that truly belongs to you. #加密市场观察

Last night, three major events occurred in the U.S. market, while many retail investors remained oblivious.

First, the U.S. ADP employment data, known as the 'little non-farm,' disappointed expectations, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations.

This should have significantly raised the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts, however, market pricing shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has only slightly fluctuated.

This calm response may indicate that the market is waiting for clearer signals.

Another piece of news is even more disruptive: reports indicate that Trump's team is considering appointing the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent, as the director of the White House National Economic Council if they come to power, potentially replacing the Federal Reserve Chairman.

This suggests that U.S. monetary policy may shift decisively from curbing inflation to stimulating growth; once easing expectations are reinforced, the global liquidity landscape will change accordingly.

At the same time, the compliance process in the cryptocurrency market has made key progress. The SEC chairman revealed that the 'Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill' is about to pass, along with Polymarket's return to the U.S. and the listing of the Solana spot ETF, paving the way for institutional capital to enter the crypto market on a large scale and in compliance.

Therefore, the current superficial weakness of the U.S. economy may actually be setting the stage for the next wave of explosive growth in crypto assets. Policy, capital, and legality—these three key elements are forming a synergy.

For retail investors, the most important thing right now is not to get caught up in the fluctuations of short-term K-lines, but to think about how to prepare for the potential arrival of a new cycle. Focus on assets with clear compliance paths and spot ETF potential, and patiently make strategic layouts, which may be more important than frequent trading.

In the midst of the complex market information, understanding the profound implications of macro trends is crucial. I hope these observations can provide you with a different perspective.

Follow me, I don't boast or make empty promises, just share real experiences that can help you survive in the field. There are still vacancies in the squad; whether you want to follow and profit steadily is up to you. #币安区块链周 #ETH走势分析

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