币富日记-HTXD928

Waiting for a breakthrough
1. This week, expected good news about interest rate cuts and the end of QT to restart QE
2. BTC on an hourly basis is still in a bullish structure with higher lows and highs, and after sufficient consolidation, once it breaks 94000, it will accelerate upwards

December is always a range market that repeatedly fluctuates and builds a bottom!

Everyone should not get too excited about short-term trades. When I open a position, it's just to bet on a rebound, and when it’s close, I’ll get out; otherwise, it’s easy to hit a stop loss. So everyone should be rational about this. This week, we might see a rebound, especially with expectations of interest rate cuts, while next week the yen will likely see an interest rate hike. Once the interest rate is raised, short-term volatility is bound to increase...

We still need to be vigilant about potential risks and be cautious primarily in short-term trading!

BTC stayed temporarily around support near 88000 last night, and the rebound over the weekend is not strong, with a need for further retracement. After breaking below 88000, there is weak support between 87400-87125, which can be taken as a short position or not. It’s better to wait for a long position around the 12-hour Bollinger band lower band at 86666-86300. Then, we will look at the support between 84600-83800.

Summary of secondary market catalysts, which may not necessarily drive token prices up but certainly align with the current market situation.

$AAVE: Aave is discussing/pushing to lower or even remove Sky's USDS (and related stablecoin exposure) from the collateral system.

Additionally, Aave is discussing the contraction and optimization of multi-chain expansion, considering gradually shutting down some on-chain deployments and setting clearer revenue thresholds.

$JUP: Kamino has blocked the Refinance migration path of Jupiter Lend at the protocol level, raising controversy over whether it violates the spirit of open finance.

$YB: YieldBasis has announced and implemented a Fee Switch, with the DAO distributing captured protocol fees to veYB holders, with the first batch of fees to be allocated calculated in BTC.

$SOL / $AERO (Base) / $LINK: Base has launched the Base–Solana Bridge on the mainnet, secured by Chainlink CCIP in conjunction with Coinbase, allowing Base applications to natively support Solana assets and liquidity. Additionally, the Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (GLNK) has started trading on NYSE Arca, which is also a positive for LINK.

$UNI: Uniswap has integrated the Revolut fiat deposit channel, converting users of a major European financial app into one of the on-chain incremental entry points, reducing friction for new users.

$ENA USDe has currently become one of the quoted assets for Hyperliquid spot and HIP-3 perpetual.

$ENA / $MORPHO: 21Shares has launched Ethena (EENA) and Morpho (MORPH) spot ETPs in Europe.

The weekend market is entering a range consolidation, and one must patiently wait for a clear signal before entering trades. Recently, the market seems complex, but in reality, it is simple. The complexity lies in the up-and-down fluctuations that are hard to grasp, while the simplicity is that the trend is actually a continuous short squeeze.

Due to typically weak liquidity over the weekend, operations need to be particularly cautious.

Two key levels to pay attention to:
The first is the gap around 87500 below. If the market drops to this level during the day and fills the gap, then stops dropping and rebounds, one could consider positioning for a long trade, with extreme rebound levels at 97000-102000. This is a more ideal technical formation; if there is no clear stop-loss signal, do not enter the market.
The second is if it fails to break above, there may be further room for a pullback, so one could short at highs, with strong support in the 85000-86000 range below.

The weekend is likely to see narrow fluctuations, preparing for a potential drop on Monday. The market is becoming increasingly quiet, and the reference value of trading volume is limited, with few opportunities. It is recommended to maintain patience and wait for clearer signals to emerge!

Next week and the week after, one is the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the other is Japan raising interest rates. The market will experience a peak in liquidation around these two weeks, while also presenting the best opportunity for bottom fishing. This bottom fishing can be considered the last low point of this year. For those seeking stability, it is advisable to gradually enter the market with spot trading within a locked range, and after the price drops, slowly enter with contracts.

The "bottom fishing point" after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and Japan raises interest rates is entirely different; these two market phases must be clearly distinguished. The former's bottom fishing is for short-term bullish positions, while the latter's bottom fishing is for medium-term trend bullish positions.

The bullish structure has not deteriorated; as long as it does not fall below the previous low of 83800, it remains in a bullish consolidation market with continuously rising highs and lows.

The initiation of a bullish trend requires a significant bullish candlestick to break through 94000.

早起看了眼，比睡前跌的还猛，当然先动手的是大饼，只能说，唏嘘不已。

1. $BTC 直接莫名其妙从昨天93000跌破90000来到了89000附近了，听说市价直接砸盘，看不太懂这一切；

2. $ETH 还是挺强的，现在还有3000上方，看看吧，毕竟很多人都在说BE走势各不相同了；

3. $SOL 链上还是挺多造富效应的，看看能不能最后一个月把去年的气势走出来；

Why can't altcoins rise? Stop saying it's "lack of money, lack of liquidity"; that's just the surface.

The truth comes down to two points:

1: The projects lack innovation, all are old concepts repackaged; no one is buying into the "storytelling" anymore.

2: The valuations are outrageous, opening with market caps in the tens of billions; retail investors get stuck as soon as they buy, who would dare to take over?

The result is:

Funds all flow to the top, 90% of altcoins are ignored;

The project teams are easily crushed when they try to pump, so they simply give up;

New coins are immediately below their issue price upon listing, faith drops to zero. The market has completely changed now:

There are no more fairy tales of "holding on with closed eyes waiting for a hundred times return,"

only "short, fast, ruthless" quick in and out. If you catch a rebound, you run; if not, you’re left with nothing.

Be a bit slower, a bit greedier, and you’re completely out.

In one sentence:

The altcoin market in 2025 is not a greenhouse waiting for the wind,

but a gladiatorial arena where blood is licked from the blade.

Those who can adapt eat meat, those who cannot even get soup.

okb形态挺不错的，整体来看有止跌反转的迹象，已经到了重要压力线，对标价格110u，如果突破站稳这个位置的话短期是有机会表现一波，如果未能突破下一步将会再次测试下边沿线100附近的支撑，可以关注一下突破情况，突破是可以追涨的

Tell an amazing truth, altcoins will belong to the hunting ground in 2025

"The market lacks liquidity" is probably the most heard phrase, everyone says liquidity determines the size of the market, and it's not wrong to understand it this way, but from another perspective

No innovation in projects, the same narrative with a different skin, from the Metaverse to RWA and then to AI, even the project parties themselves no longer believe in it, so how can you expect retail investors to take over

The team hasn't landed, the community hasn't been built, launching with a market cap of tens of billions clearly tells you, "I'm here to cash out as soon as I open"

As a result, funds only dare to cluster around the top, 90% of altcoins have become "zombie coins", a little pull from the project party gets smashed, and they simply lay flat, new coins go online and immediately break the issue price, they don't even have the patience to draw anymore

The market logic has changed: in the past it was "hold and get rich", now it's "move slowly and get buried", the rhythm has become: quick in, quick out, harsh stop-loss, a rebound without escaping the peak, the next time to escape may have to wait for another round of bull and bear

Now either you have insider information and run faster than the project party, or you only play with the most certain leaders, don't ask "which one will be a hundred times", first ask yourself: "how many people have run from this position, am I the last batch, the altcoin battlefield of 2025 is a hunting ground for professional hunters, not an amusement park for retail investors"

The aster small level has a pullback demand, is in a descending wedge, and this pattern can also be understood as a test of support after a breakout. Currently, the support strength is still relatively strong, and it is highly likely that it will not break down. Therefore, you can directly enter a long position around the current price of 1.04u, as there may be a wave of accelerated upward movement in the short term.

Here is an additional basis that I believe indicates we are currently in the early stage of a bear market. If your viewpoint aligns with mine, it can be taken as a reference; if our opinions differ, please ignore my perspective:

Through retrospect, from a God’s-eye view, we can see that the distribution period of the last bull market was from February 2021 to November 2021, lasting about 280 days;

The specific process began in February 2021 when it first approached 60,000, then consolidated at a high for 3 months, followed by the super news on May 19 that caused the price to drop to 28,000. Later, there was news about Tesla purchasing Bitcoin, which led to a rebound back to the previous high and slightly above it. The entire process of this rise took 3 months, and then it consolidated at a high for one and a half months before entering the bear market after November, lasting a total of more than 9 months;

The distribution period of the current bull market can temporarily be understood as from December 2024 to October 2025, lasting about 300 days. We are currently witnessing this unfold, and without a God’s-eye view, we can only hypothesize;

The specific process is that in December 2024, it first approached 100,000, then consolidated at a high for more than 2 months. Following that, there was news about a self-directed trade war between China and the U.S. by Trump, causing the price to drop back to 75,000. Afterward, as the trade war eased, the price rebounded to near the previous high and broke through to 126,000. The entire process of this rise also took 3 months, but the difference is that it consolidated at a high for 3 months during the second phase, ultimately entering a downward trend in October, lasting a total of 11 months;

Currently, it seems that the distribution cycle of the last bull market above 55,000 and the distribution cycle of this bull market above 100,000 are extremely similar. The behavior of the main force in the short term may be quite biased, but in terms of the larger cycle, the actions of the main force can be traced.

A few months ago at the peak of the bull market
Various FOMO comments
For example, this cycle reaching 200k, an eternal bull market
And now various FUD comments
For example, what
Various bankruptcies, a bear market lasting for years, the logic of BTC being debunked
These things probably won't happen
It's just a release of market emotions
The next cycle should be 200k, with a larger total market cap and more use cases ​​​

Everything is ready, only the eastern wind is missing!
1.BTC is showing a bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows on the hourly level, having gone through sufficient consolidation and accumulation, only lacking a significant breakthrough bullish candlestick for a major rise.
2.ETH has confirmed a pullback after breaking the 3100 resistance level, and ETH/BTC shows signs of strengthening, with ETH's rebound expected to be significantly stronger than BTC.

$BTC is currently attempting to recover and stabilize above the EMA 20-day line at $92,000. If successful, the next target will be the pressure range of $98,000 to $100,000, where strong resistance is expected. This is also my second take-profit reference position for a small amount of spot and medium-term long positions.

Let's talk about the market of ETH, which has recently rebounded strongly.

Recently, BTC rebounded by 1%, while ETH rebounded by 5%.

The main reasons are:
1. This round, ETH dropped quite a bit, falling 46% from its peak, while BTC only dropped 35%.
2. The Ethereum Foundation confirmed that the Fusaka mainnet upgrade will go live on December 3rd, with L2 gas fees reduced by 89%.
3. ETH ETF net inflows turned positive on December 1st with $180 million, reversing the $1.64 billion outflow in November, with total institutional holdings exceeding $13 billion.

It is clear that the technical upgrades of ETH have attracted many Wall Street institutions.

Additionally, strong rebound demand has led to a significant surge in ETH.

ETH 4000 is here!
1. Yesterday, the US stock market's crypto sector and the coin circle continued to surge, with Circle up 11% and Robinhood up 6%
2. BTC did not fully stabilize above 93200 yesterday and is expected to make slight adjustments before breaking through again, but ETH completely broke through the pressure level of 3100, and the upward space has opened up
3. ETH/BTC has adjusted sufficiently and shows signs of a breakout, with a rebound target for BTC at 100,000 to 110,000, while the target for ETH is 4000+, with even the chance to create a new ATH.

Pullback confirmation
Now the next target is at least around 10500
In my view, there is a high probability of a rebound to.

Then if 10500 is reached, it will be an important watershed

If it continues upwards, a long-term bull market will begin
If it struggles to go up and turns down, a head and shoulders top will form

I don't quite believe anyone who says the four-year cycle is not valid
I believe that the four-year cycle of BTC is ingrained in its genes

Of course, the influence of this cycle on price will weaken
More macro factors will come into play

The sharp decline and market correction of the past two weeks are paving the way for a new round of market activity. Market sentiment, institutional trends, and the regulatory environment are resonating, and the core driving forces are now clear:

**Shifting Policy Expectations:** The Federal Reserve is about to change leadership, with potential candidates coming from within the crypto space and favoring interest rate cuts and favorable policies. Market confidence in easing is rapidly increasing.

**Liquidity Bottom:** QT has been suspended. Although QE has not been restarted, the tightest phase has passed. The Treasury recently injected billions of dollars of liquidity into banks, sufficient to buffer external tightening pressures.

**Innovation Exemption Imminent:** The SEC will introduce a cryptocurrency innovation exemption policy in the next 1-2 months. Compliant projects and financing activities are expected to accelerate, supporting not only BTC/ETH but also potentially igniting a wave of high-quality altcoins.

**Accelerated Institutional Entry:** Traditional giant Vanguard has launched Bitcoin ETF trading, and multiple banks recommend allocating 1%-4% to crypto assets. It's only a matter of time before more "juggernaut" institutions follow suit.

This round of market activity is likely to be driven by "compliant innovation," forming a pattern where mainstream coins set the stage, and altcoins lead the rally. In December, a breakthrough is imminent, the market is brewing, and good times may be late, but they will surely come.