币圈 刘亦菲
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Is there going to be news from the Federal Reserve tonight?! Powell's speech makes it difficult to lower interest rates next year?
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The Federal Reserve's rate cut is confirmed tonight: The crypto market bets at the 90,000 mark, with undercurrents in the liquidity feast.
At 3 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for December will be officially announced. This policy meeting, which the market has assigned an 89.6% probability of a rate cut, is becoming a key trigger for the cryptocurrency market. As of the evening of December 10, Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the range of $92,000 to $94,000, while Ethereum surged over 6% in a single day, stabilizing above the $3,300 mark. The crypto market has already entered a 'pre-policy excitement mode,' and the real market storm will officially begin with the Federal Reserve's interest rate statement and Powell's speech.
The expectation of a rate cut has already deeply infiltrated the trends in the crypto market. Since the CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surpassed 80%, institutional funds have jumped ahead to position themselves—on December 10, 10 Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 3,883 BTC (approximately $379 million), and Ethereum ETFs simultaneously absorbed $125 million in funds. BlackRock alone purchased 41,195 ETH, betting real money on the arrival of loose liquidity. Fueled by this capital, Bitcoin once surged to $94,554 within the day, and Ethereum hit a high of $3,397, with the daily increase of the mainstream altcoin ADA reaching 7.83%, significantly warming market risk appetite. This trend continues the core logic of crypto assets: as the federal funds rate approaches the range of 3.50%-3.75%, funds from low-yield traditional assets will accelerate into the high-return crypto market, forming a liquidity-driven upward trend.
The expectation of a rate cut has already deeply infiltrated the trends in the crypto market. Since the CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surpassed 80%, institutional funds have jumped ahead to position themselves—on December 10, 10 Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 3,883 BTC (approximately $379 million), and Ethereum ETFs simultaneously absorbed $125 million in funds. BlackRock alone purchased 41,195 ETH, betting real money on the arrival of loose liquidity. Fueled by this capital, Bitcoin once surged to $94,554 within the day, and Ethereum hit a high of $3,397, with the daily increase of the mainstream altcoin ADA reaching 7.83%, significantly warming market risk appetite. This trend continues the core logic of crypto assets: as the federal funds rate approaches the range of 3.50%-3.75%, funds from low-yield traditional assets will accelerate into the high-return crypto market, forming a liquidity-driven upward trend.
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Federal Reserve Rate Cut Decision Preview: ETH Seeks Breakthrough Amid Liquidity Dividend and Game Theory
Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve's December FOMC interest rate decision will officially take place. This key meeting, which the market has assigned an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, is becoming a core variable affecting the trend of Ethereum (ETH). Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $3122, with the long/short ratio rising to its highest level since October 2024 at 1.055. Coupled with the improvement in fundamentals after the Fusaka upgrade, the crypto market is at a critical juncture of macro policy and the intrinsic value of assets.
The impact of Federal Reserve interest rate changes on ETH is essentially a threefold transmission of liquidity, risk preference, and asset cost-effectiveness. Historical data has long validated this logic: during the Federal Reserve's violent rate hike cycle in 2022, the price of ETH plummeted from $3600 to $1200, a decline of over 60%; while after the pause in rate hikes in 2023, the expectation of liquidity recovery pushed ETH to rebound to the $2300 range from its lows. The current strong expectation for this rate cut has been pre-released through capital flows—Ethereum ETFs saw cumulative inflows exceeding $300 million in December, with a single-day peak inflow of $72.83 million. Overall, cryptocurrency ETFs have seen cumulative inflows exceeding $1.1 billion, reaching a seven-week high, ending the previous four weeks of continuous outflow, with expectations of liquidity easing becoming an important support for ETH.
The impact of Federal Reserve interest rate changes on ETH is essentially a threefold transmission of liquidity, risk preference, and asset cost-effectiveness. Historical data has long validated this logic: during the Federal Reserve's violent rate hike cycle in 2022, the price of ETH plummeted from $3600 to $1200, a decline of over 60%; while after the pause in rate hikes in 2023, the expectation of liquidity recovery pushed ETH to rebound to the $2300 range from its lows. The current strong expectation for this rate cut has been pre-released through capital flows—Ethereum ETFs saw cumulative inflows exceeding $300 million in December, with a single-day peak inflow of $72.83 million. Overall, cryptocurrency ETFs have seen cumulative inflows exceeding $1.1 billion, reaching a seven-week high, ending the previous four weeks of continuous outflow, with expectations of liquidity easing becoming an important support for ETH.
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稳定币监管加码：中国禁虚拟币的深层逻辑与现实必然
2025年11月底，中国人民银行召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议，首次明确稳定币属于虚拟货币范畴，将其纳入非法金融活动监管框架，引发市场强烈震动 。随后，七家行业协会联合发布风险提示，重申虚拟货币不得在境内流通使用，再次彰显我国对虚拟币的零容忍态度。从比特币到稳定币，为何我国始终坚持禁止虚拟货币相关活动？这背后是基于金融安全、社会稳定与发展大局的多重考量，而近期的监管动作更凸显了政策的连贯性与前瞻性。
虚拟货币的核心风险，在于其对金融体系的系统性冲击。与法定货币不同，虚拟币缺乏主权信用支撑，价格波动剧烈到离谱——2025年10月比特币价格飙升至12.6万美元，短短一个月后便暴跌至8.2万美元，引发全网巨额爆仓 。更值得警惕的是稳定币，这类号称“价值锚定”的虚拟货币，其储备金透明度与充足性长期存疑，却凭借“相对稳定”的特性成为投机炒作新载体，目前USDT流通规模已突破1840亿美元，形成潜在的金融泡沫 。虚拟币的去中心化特性，使其脱离传统金融监管体系，7×24小时无国界流通的特点，更成为违规跨境转移资金、逃避外汇管制的工具，直接威胁国家金融主权 。
非法活动的滋生蔓延，让虚拟币成为社会治理的“灰色地带”。虚拟币交易的匿名性的特点，使其成为洗钱、集资诈骗、传销等犯罪行为的“理想工具”——2025年1-10月全国已查处47起稳定币相关诈骗案件，涉案金额高达56亿元 。江苏宿迁经开区法院近期审理的“CRD”虚拟币传销案中，组织者以高回报为诱饵，通过“拉人头”模式发展下线，最终被判有期徒刑5年，这类案件正是虚拟币沦为诈骗工具的典型写照 。联合国数据显示，2022年全球通过加密货币洗钱的金额已超1000亿美元，而虚拟币交易链条的复杂性，让警方追踪溯源难度极大，严重挑战执法能力。
此外，虚拟币还与我国发展理念和政策导向严重相悖。比特币等虚拟币的“挖矿”行为消耗海量电力，单台矿机月耗电量超普通家庭5倍，全球挖矿年耗电量曾达1493.7亿度，与我国“双碳”目标背道而驰。同时，虚拟币的投机属性催生了“一夜暴富”的幻想，大量投资者盲目跟风，甚至投入全部积蓄，最终血本无归，既违背了“脱虚向实”的经济政策，也容易引发社会矛盾。反观我国大力推进的数字人民币，既保留了数字货币的便捷性，又具备法定货币的安全性与监管可控性，已在多个场景试点推广，成为虚拟币的良性替代方案 。
从2013年明确比特币为“特定虚拟商品”，到2021年划定虚拟币相关业务为非法金融活动，再到2025年将稳定币纳入严管，我国的监管政策始终沿着“防范风险、守护民生”的逻辑演进 。此次监管加码并非临时之举，而是应对虚拟币领域新风险的必要举措——随着稳定币、现实世界资产代币化等新概念层出不穷，监管必须主动亮剑，填补监管空白。
当前，全球虚拟币监管呈现分化态势，但我国的严格禁止政策，正是基于本国金融体系特点和发展阶段的理性选择。虚拟币不是“数字黄金”，而是包裹着技术外衣的风险陷阱。监管的持续收紧，既是为了筑牢金融安全的“防火墙”，也是为了引导市场资源流向实体经济和合法创新领域。对于普通投资者而言，认清虚拟币的非法本质与风险属性，远离相关交易炒作，才是守护自身财产安全的正道。在数字经济时代，真正有价值的创新必然建立在合规与安全的基础上，这正是我国虚拟币监管政策传递的核心信号。
虚拟货币的核心风险，在于其对金融体系的系统性冲击。与法定货币不同，虚拟币缺乏主权信用支撑，价格波动剧烈到离谱——2025年10月比特币价格飙升至12.6万美元，短短一个月后便暴跌至8.2万美元，引发全网巨额爆仓 。更值得警惕的是稳定币，这类号称“价值锚定”的虚拟货币，其储备金透明度与充足性长期存疑，却凭借“相对稳定”的特性成为投机炒作新载体，目前USDT流通规模已突破1840亿美元，形成潜在的金融泡沫 。虚拟币的去中心化特性，使其脱离传统金融监管体系，7×24小时无国界流通的特点，更成为违规跨境转移资金、逃避外汇管制的工具，直接威胁国家金融主权 。
非法活动的滋生蔓延，让虚拟币成为社会治理的“灰色地带”。虚拟币交易的匿名性的特点，使其成为洗钱、集资诈骗、传销等犯罪行为的“理想工具”——2025年1-10月全国已查处47起稳定币相关诈骗案件，涉案金额高达56亿元 。江苏宿迁经开区法院近期审理的“CRD”虚拟币传销案中，组织者以高回报为诱饵，通过“拉人头”模式发展下线，最终被判有期徒刑5年，这类案件正是虚拟币沦为诈骗工具的典型写照 。联合国数据显示，2022年全球通过加密货币洗钱的金额已超1000亿美元，而虚拟币交易链条的复杂性，让警方追踪溯源难度极大，严重挑战执法能力。
此外，虚拟币还与我国发展理念和政策导向严重相悖。比特币等虚拟币的“挖矿”行为消耗海量电力，单台矿机月耗电量超普通家庭5倍，全球挖矿年耗电量曾达1493.7亿度，与我国“双碳”目标背道而驰。同时，虚拟币的投机属性催生了“一夜暴富”的幻想，大量投资者盲目跟风，甚至投入全部积蓄，最终血本无归，既违背了“脱虚向实”的经济政策，也容易引发社会矛盾。反观我国大力推进的数字人民币，既保留了数字货币的便捷性，又具备法定货币的安全性与监管可控性，已在多个场景试点推广，成为虚拟币的良性替代方案 。
从2013年明确比特币为“特定虚拟商品”，到2021年划定虚拟币相关业务为非法金融活动，再到2025年将稳定币纳入严管，我国的监管政策始终沿着“防范风险、守护民生”的逻辑演进 。此次监管加码并非临时之举，而是应对虚拟币领域新风险的必要举措——随着稳定币、现实世界资产代币化等新概念层出不穷，监管必须主动亮剑，填补监管空白。
当前，全球虚拟币监管呈现分化态势，但我国的严格禁止政策，正是基于本国金融体系特点和发展阶段的理性选择。虚拟币不是“数字黄金”，而是包裹着技术外衣的风险陷阱。监管的持续收紧，既是为了筑牢金融安全的“防火墙”，也是为了引导市场资源流向实体经济和合法创新领域。对于普通投资者而言，认清虚拟币的非法本质与风险属性，远离相关交易炒作，才是守护自身财产安全的正道。在数字经济时代，真正有价值的创新必然建立在合规与安全的基础上，这正是我国虚拟币监管政策传递的核心信号。
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From 3000 yuan to 20 million: I walked a path less traveled by relying on 'anti-humanity' discipline.
Temporary losses are not real losses.
Many people believe that grassroots success relies on luck, but I started from debt, living on 3000 yuan, and now my account has exceeded 20 million. What I relied on was not a gambler's mentality, but a set of 'rolling warehouse discipline aesthetics' that helped me endure trials that ordinary people cannot withstand, thus seizing opportunities that should have slipped away.
Phase One: Small Capital Brutal Growth (Starting from 300U)
When I first entered the market, I was surrounded by short-sighted individuals who thought '5000 yuan can earn 1 million,' but most ended up losing everything in three days. I took the opposite approach, using 100U as a pioneer and strictly adhering to two iron rules.
• Withdraw the principal immediately after an 80% increase, leaving profits in the market to roll;
Many people believe that grassroots success relies on luck, but I started from debt, living on 3000 yuan, and now my account has exceeded 20 million. What I relied on was not a gambler's mentality, but a set of 'rolling warehouse discipline aesthetics' that helped me endure trials that ordinary people cannot withstand, thus seizing opportunities that should have slipped away.
Phase One: Small Capital Brutal Growth (Starting from 300U)
When I first entered the market, I was surrounded by short-sighted individuals who thought '5000 yuan can earn 1 million,' but most ended up losing everything in three days. I took the opposite approach, using 100U as a pioneer and strictly adhering to two iron rules.
• Withdraw the principal immediately after an 80% increase, leaving profits in the market to roll;
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Ethereum Upgrade Skyrockets!
Ethereum Upgrade Skyrockets to 8500| Tom Lee Increases Holdings, Privacy Technology Upgrade, Hong Kong's First ETF Listed Continues to Rise.
In May, ETH upgrade rose threefold, from 1300 to a historical high of 4956.
In December, Ethereum upgrade rose threefold, from 3000 to 9000 taking off.
• Focus 1: Tom Lee Invests $150 million in Ethereum
Institutional leader Tom Lee continues to bet on Ethereum, recently purchasing $150 million worth of ETH again. The market interprets this as a strong optimism for Ethereum's long-term value.
• Focus 2: Vitalik Announces Ethereum Security and Scalability Upgrade Roadmap
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin revealed that the network's security and scalability will be further enhanced through "hard constants".
Key points include:
• The 2024 Dencun upgrade will weaken the SELFDESTRUCT feature.
• Starting in 2025, the gas limit for a single transaction will be set at 16.7 million to reduce DoS risks and simplify client operation.
• In the future, there will be upper limits on code access, ZK-EVM proof, and memory pricing to continuously optimize network performance.
This upgrade covers both the consensus layer and the execution layer, raising the block gas limit to 60 million, which is expected to reduce Layer 2 fees by 40%-60%, significantly improving user experience.
📈 Focus 3: Hong Kong's First Ethereum ETF Listed, Investment Threshold Greatly Reduced
On December 3, an Ethereum ETF was launched on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming Hong Kong's first compliant spot Ethereum ETF. Highlights include:
• Directly holding Ethereum, tracking the performance of the CME CF Ethereum Reference Rate;
• Supports cash/physical subscription and redemption, allowing direct trading through securities accounts for more convenience;
• After listing, the response was enthusiastic, showing strong market demand for compliant cryptocurrency asset tools.
Pando holds licenses of categories 1, 4, and 9 from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and this issuance is seen as an important step in promoting the integration of digital assets with traditional finance, expected to strengthen Hong Kong's competitiveness in the digital finance sector.
Three major events point to Ethereum: institutions continue to build positions, the technology upgrade roadmap is clear, and compliant investment channels are established. Market confidence + privacy technology evolution + financial infrastructure, the Ethereum ecosystem is welcoming multiple benefits! #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察
Ethereum Upgrade Skyrockets to 8500| Tom Lee Increases Holdings, Privacy Technology Upgrade, Hong Kong's First ETF Listed Continues to Rise.
In May, ETH upgrade rose threefold, from 1300 to a historical high of 4956.
In December, Ethereum upgrade rose threefold, from 3000 to 9000 taking off.
• Focus 1: Tom Lee Invests $150 million in Ethereum
Institutional leader Tom Lee continues to bet on Ethereum, recently purchasing $150 million worth of ETH again. The market interprets this as a strong optimism for Ethereum's long-term value.
• Focus 2: Vitalik Announces Ethereum Security and Scalability Upgrade Roadmap
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin revealed that the network's security and scalability will be further enhanced through "hard constants".
Key points include:
• The 2024 Dencun upgrade will weaken the SELFDESTRUCT feature.
• Starting in 2025, the gas limit for a single transaction will be set at 16.7 million to reduce DoS risks and simplify client operation.
• In the future, there will be upper limits on code access, ZK-EVM proof, and memory pricing to continuously optimize network performance.
This upgrade covers both the consensus layer and the execution layer, raising the block gas limit to 60 million, which is expected to reduce Layer 2 fees by 40%-60%, significantly improving user experience.
📈 Focus 3: Hong Kong's First Ethereum ETF Listed, Investment Threshold Greatly Reduced
On December 3, an Ethereum ETF was launched on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming Hong Kong's first compliant spot Ethereum ETF. Highlights include:
• Directly holding Ethereum, tracking the performance of the CME CF Ethereum Reference Rate;
• Supports cash/physical subscription and redemption, allowing direct trading through securities accounts for more convenience;
• After listing, the response was enthusiastic, showing strong market demand for compliant cryptocurrency asset tools.
Pando holds licenses of categories 1, 4, and 9 from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and this issuance is seen as an important step in promoting the integration of digital assets with traditional finance, expected to strengthen Hong Kong's competitiveness in the digital finance sector.
Three major events point to Ethereum: institutions continue to build positions, the technology upgrade roadmap is clear, and compliant investment channels are established. Market confidence + privacy technology evolution + financial infrastructure, the Ethereum ecosystem is welcoming multiple benefits! #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察
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He Yi's new role as Co-CEO of Binance sparks controversy: 6-hour AMA tearfully responds, the 'white gloves' doubts and the transparency of token listings intensify
On December 3-4, 2025, during the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, the news of He Yi officially taking up the position of Co-CEO at Binance sparked a series of controversies, making him the focus of the crypto world. From market doubts about the 'white gloves' facilitating token listings to his tearful responses during a 6-hour AMA regarding employee corruption and project利益输送 issues, this 'veteran' of the crypto space is pushing Binance's internal governance and token listing rules into the public spotlight.
Controversy from the start: Trust issues surrounding 'white gloves' and token listing rules
Before He Yi's appointment as Co-CEO could even settle, market doubts about Binance's 'white gloves' intermediaries escalated again. Some intermediary agencies claimed they could use 'He Yi's girlfriend' and 'internal connections' to open up Binance Alpha's token listing channels. Such news quickly gained traction in the bearish market atmosphere, raising strong concerns among retail investors about the fairness of trading platforms.
Controversy from the start: Trust issues surrounding 'white gloves' and token listing rules
Before He Yi's appointment as Co-CEO could even settle, market doubts about Binance's 'white gloves' intermediaries escalated again. Some intermediary agencies claimed they could use 'He Yi's girlfriend' and 'internal connections' to open up Binance Alpha's token listing channels. Such news quickly gained traction in the bearish market atmosphere, raising strong concerns among retail investors about the fairness of trading platforms.
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Ironclad Rule for Profit in Cryptocurrency Trading: The Three-Line Resonance Trading Strategy, a Proven Logic from Fluctuation to Trend
In the cryptocurrency trading world, opportunities are never lacking; what is lacking is a practical trading strategy that is 'understandable, actionable, and resilient to volatility.' Most people fall victim to 'blindly following indicators,' 'holding positions without a stop-loss until liquidation,' and 'fully betting on market trends.' The real logic for making money lies in using simple tools to capture core signals and employing disciplined operations to control risk. Today, I will share a trading strategy of 'three-line resonance' that has been validated through bull and bear markets, covering the entire process of selecting coins, entry, risk control, and profit taking. Beginners can easily grasp it, while experienced traders can advance their skills.
1. Core of the strategy: Three-line resonance, filtering out 90% of false signals
1. Core of the strategy: Three-line resonance, filtering out 90% of false signals
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Surge of 9% + Liquidation of 400 million! The crypto market celebration restarts, with 150,000 USD Bitcoin on the way
Stop worrying about whether the bottom of 80,000 USD is a trap. The recent cryptocurrency market has already provided the answer: the bull market has never left; it is just handing the car keys to the brave! On December 3rd, Bitcoin surged 9.5% in a single day, skyrocketing from 84,000 USD to 92,000 USD, with Ethereum closely following, soaring over 10% to break 3,000 USD. Altcoins like Solana and LINK have directly entered double-digit surge mode, with the global crypto market seeing a liquidation of 387 million in one day, 110,000 shorts being crushed, and the largest single position of 13 million USD cleared instantly—this is not a rebound; it is clearly the start of the bull market!
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Cryptocurrency Position Management Guide: From Losing Everything to Consistent Profits, These 8 Rules Secure Your Earnings
In the cryptocurrency world, 90% of retail investors lose money because they 'don't manage their positions'—either they go all in and get liquidated, or they randomly average down their losses, ultimately losing their principal in the fluctuations of the candlestick chart. True long-term profitable traders understand that 'position size is the lifeline of trading.' Here are 8 verified rules of position management that can help you lock in profits and mitigate risks amidst volatility:
1. Golden ratio position method: Lock in risk within a controllable range.
Core logic: Never put all your eggs in one basket. Use the 'five equal parts capital management rule,' dividing the total capital into 5 parts, using only 1/5 of the position for a single trade.
1. Golden ratio position method: Lock in risk within a controllable range.
Core logic: Never put all your eggs in one basket. Use the 'five equal parts capital management rule,' dividing the total capital into 5 parts, using only 1/5 of the position for a single trade.
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The Undying Laws of Cryptocurrency Trading: From Losing Everything to Stable Profits, I Achieved Mastery with These 4 Technical Logics
In the cryptocurrency world, 90% of people approach trading as a game of chance, chasing highs and lows, reacting to news, and ultimately losing all their capital in the fluctuations of candlestick charts. However, the few who can make long-term profits have mastered replicable trading techniques—not through a complex accumulation of indicators, but by seeing through the underlying logic of the market.
1. Trends are king: Only engage in trades that follow the trend.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, but even the craziest market movements revolve around the concept of 'trends.' I once held onto a long position against the trend during a bear market, losing 60% of my capital in a week, only to later realize: the trend is the lifeline of trading; acting against it is equivalent to suicide.
1. Trends are king: Only engage in trades that follow the trend.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, but even the craziest market movements revolve around the concept of 'trends.' I once held onto a long position against the trend during a bear market, losing 60% of my capital in a week, only to later realize: the trend is the lifeline of trading; acting against it is equivalent to suicide.
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Specializing in slaughtering the rich! Sun Ge lost 3.5 billion, and the ultra-rich's trillion yuan assets vanished overnight…
Super rich, now becoming a lamb to be slaughtered. The money lost ranges from tens of billions to over a hundred billion. Recently, two people have been severely scammed. The first is the crypto lord 'Sun Ge', who has always been reaping profits from others, but ended up making a mistake and was actually taken for 3.3 billion by a trust in Hong Kong. What happened? Previously, Sun Ge acquired a stablecoin company that mainly issued TUSD, pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio. To issue it, there must be corresponding US dollar assets for reserves, amounting to $470 million (about 3.3 billion RMB). However, it soon collapsed. How did the money disappear? The shareholders of TUSD changed, and the US dollar assets under custody also needed to be switched to a new trust company, but both the old and new trusts had the same owner.
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