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$Bitcoin’#s 4-Year Cycle — Dead Trend or Perfectly on Track?

These days, it’s become fashionable to say Bitcoin has outgrown its classic four-year boom-and-bust rhythm. Big voices like Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK’s Cathie Wood are waving off the cycle — claiming that ETFs, regulation, and institutional adoption have pushed BTC into the mainstream. In their view, Bitcoin isn’t a fringe asset anymore — so why would it behave like it did years ago?

But not everyone is buying that narrative.

Enter Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer — a long-time BTC believer — and he says the four-year rhythm is alive and kicking.

He points straight to the 2024 halving structure: a powerful rally, a blow-off top, and now the cool-down phase. The chart work shows BTC topping around $125K in October 2025, almost perfectly in line with earlier cycles.

And what comes after every vertical run? Winter.

Historically, the bear stretch runs roughly one full year, and Timmer expects this cooldown to bite deep into 2026. He marks $65K–$75K as the key support base — the accumulation zone where markets reset before the next acceleration.

The Classic Cycle Blueprint:

Halving cuts miner rewards by 50%
Supply shock triggers massive upside
A brutal ~80% washout follows
Price grinds upward toward the next halving

It happened after 2012, 2016, 2020 — and Timmer sees 2024 behaving the same way.

So while the new-school crowd calls the cycle outdated…

the chart still respects history.

And if the pattern holds —

2026 might be Bitcoin’s “year off”… before the next storm hits.

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