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12.11 ETH Market Analysis

Due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, after reaching a new high, the price quickly fell back down. The correction is almost complete now. The J line in the KDJ indicator has reached -10.78, and the bulls are about to make their move, so don't short recklessly.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy between 3170-3100.
Target is set towards 3300-3440.
$ETH

The interest rate cut has indeed arrived! The core of Powell's speech boils down to two key changes, explained in simple terms:

1. Looking at the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate plan, there will probably be only one rate cut by 2026, significantly fewer than the market previously expected, which means there is basically no room for rate cuts throughout next year.

2. There is both bad news and good news: the Federal Reserve will buy $40 billion in assets this month, which is equivalent to injecting money into the market, and it starts this month, more robust than expected, which counts as a concrete positive.

However, it should be noted that the Federal Reserve stated that this is not a routine monetary stimulus; they are buying short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which is aimed at solving the current overnight loan market tension, and they will not keep buying indefinitely, as they will stop at some point next year.

Overall, the Federal Reserve has first doused us with a bucket of cold water saying 'fewer rate cuts next year,' and then sweetened the deal with 'this month's monetary easing,' and the results are quite acceptable. The cryptocurrency market and the U.S. stock market have already risen due to this unexpected monetary easing, but subsequent meetings are still not expected to lower rates, so it is uncertain whether this wave of increase can be stabilized. Everyone should not be complacent and be wary of a pullback after the positive news materializes.

12.11 BTC Morning Market Analysis

In the 1-hour trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve meeting, Bitcoin quickly rose to around 94500 and then fell again. The overall trend is still downward, but the KDJ indicator has reached the oversold area, and the bearish strength is weakening, allowing for buying on the lows.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy in the range of 89000-90000.
Targeting, looking towards 93000-95000
$BTC

Urgent reminder! The Federal Reserve is going to make big moves at the FOMC meeting tonight, so brothers in the crypto circle should quickly focus their attention!

The market is now buzzing that the Federal Reserve is basically set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points tonight, with the probability climbing to over 80%—this means a massive liquidity surge for the crypto world! After the rate cut, traditional market returns will decrease, and that hot money with nowhere to go will likely flow into high-yield risk assets like Bitcoin. After all, historically, every round of quantitative easing has coincided with a bull market for Bitcoin.

But the more crucial signal lies ahead: The Federal Reserve is in turmoil! There were disagreements in the last vote, and this time there could even be a tie. Some want an aggressive cut of 50 basis points, while others advocate for no change. This disagreement is not necessarily a bad thing; instead, it indicates that the liquidity injection in 2026 could be even more intense, and we cannot rule out the possibility of direct bond purchases and balance sheet expansion for injecting liquidity. This is a signal that the new round of "big pumps" is about to start.

However, we retail investors should not blindly follow the crowd; remember these three points:

1. Short-term sentiment is definitely favorable, but don't chase high prices—avoid falling into the trap of "buy on rumors, sell on news";
2. Focus on BTC and mainstream coins, as under the expectation of liquidity injection, Bitcoin's hard currency properties are still reliable;
3. Make sure to keep some bullets ready. If the market experiences a panic drop due to the Federal Reserve's disagreements, it will be a good opportunity to pick up chips in batches.

Russell Investments has a clear outlook on this week's Federal Reserve meeting: the U.S. economy is experiencing robust growth on one hand and weak job growth on the other, a rare combination that makes the Fed's interest rate decisions particularly challenging, with internal disagreements on how much policy 'insurance' to implement.

However, they still expect that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but this rate cut will be delivered with a 'hawkish' tone—the policy statement and subsequent communications will be cautious in wording to prevent the market from developing overly accommodative expectations.

Moreover, this round of easing will not be too aggressive; Russell Investments anticipates that rate cuts will slow or stop by early 2026, with the final terminal rate expected to be around 3.25%-3.5%, which is considerably more conservative than some optimistic views in the market.

The corresponding investment advice is that the current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is approximately 4.1%, already above fair value, and long-term rates may decline in the future, which could lead to an increase in bond prices. Therefore, investors are advised to allocate more duration risk assets in their portfolios.

Interestingly, ahead of the meeting, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has risen to a several-month high of 4.16%, a relatively rare occurrence that may indicate market concerns over persistent inflation or a poor U.S. fiscal outlook. Because of these factors, even if the Fed cuts rates, it must maintain a hawkish stance to preserve its credibility in combating inflation.

12.9 TRB Market Analysis

Looking at the 1-hour trend, this pullback has already reached a low point, the Bollinger Bands have also narrowed, the KDJ indicator is moving upward, and the MACD is about to form a golden cross, a breakout above the zero axis is imminent, and an upward trend could start at any moment.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to aim for 20-20.5.
Target towards 22.5-24.

$TRB

12.9 BNB Market Analysis

The 4-hour line is currently in a pullback, and it quickly rebounded twice after falling to around 870, indicating strong support at the bottom. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the KDJ has dropped into the oversold area, suggesting that the bulls need to rebound quickly.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to buy in the range of 870-880.
Target is set towards 910-930.
$BNB

The market has been digesting the worst-case scenarios in advance. Monday's market was particularly alarming: U.S. stocks fell across the board, gold dropped below $4200, Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000, and U.S. oil also fell below the 50-day moving average to below $60. The decline wasn't significant, but the hidden dangers were evident—U.S. Treasury yields rose along with the dollar, essentially indicating that everyone is quickly selling off high-risk assets and pulling out funds to avoid risk.

This decline wasn't just random; there are several triggers. First, a significant drop in the Japanese bond market impacted U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, approaching recent highs; second, the market now believes that even if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it will be a 'hawkish cut', meaning that even if rates are lowered, there will be no commitment to future easing, and it won't represent a policy shift, just a slight technical adjustment; more critically, the comments from a popular candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett, directly caused a collapse in market sentiment. He stated that he does not take responsibility for a six-month interest rate plan, and the Federal Reserve will only adjust based on data and explain actions. Once this statement was made, traders immediately revised down the 2026 interest rate cut expectations from 3 times to 2 times. In fact, the core of his message reveals the future stance of the Federal Reserve: no guarantees, no clear statements, and no aggressive easing. This is more impactful than how much rates are cut at the moment, and it helps him shed the image tied to Trump.

Fearing a chain reaction from a continued market decline, Trump quickly released positive news to stabilize the market, stating that details regarding the export of chips to China were being finalized and that Nvidia's H200 would be allowed for export. This slightly steadied the decline in U.S. stocks, but it was a stopgap measure reliant on policy intervention, not a sign that market trends had genuinely improved.

Ultimately, the market didn't experience a major event yesterday; rather, everyone is waiting to see if there will be bad news on Wednesday, so the volatility wasn't large, but the sense of panic is growing stronger. Fortunately, the market has already begun to consider and digest the worst-case scenarios in advance.

The Federal Reserve has made significant moves this week, and even Wall Street is unsure whether Powell will signal easing or lean towards tightening, which directly affects cryptocurrency prices.

Currently, it seems that a rate cut this week is basically set, but Powell is caught between hawks and doves; on one hand, he can't continue easing, while on the other, he hopes to cut rates again in January next year. Therefore, Wall Street speculates that the most likely scenario is "hawkish rate cuts" — rates are lowered, but he has to maintain a tough stance and won't clearly state that there will be continued easing next year.

In fact, this is a good thing for the crypto market. No matter how cautious the Federal Reserve's attitude appears, after a rate cut, the money in the market will always find a place to go; cryptocurrencies are inherently a favored destination for hot money, and funds will definitely flow towards this.

However, don't rush into the market just because of the rate cut; the key is to watch what Powell says after the meeting: if his tone is soft and suggests further easing might happen, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to rise directly; if he states that this is the only cut and the future depends on the situation, cryptocurrency prices will likely drop first before gradually recovering, after all, money has become cheaper, but the capital influx will be slower.

Retail investors should focus on the Federal Reserve's press conference this week, especially what Powell says about future policy. Those with positions shouldn't operate recklessly, and those who haven't entered can buy in batches at lower prices; don't go all in, as volatility will definitely increase, and a drop may actually present opportunities.

The crypto market isn't afraid of the Federal Reserve's small moves; it's the lack of volatility that is concerning. The more tangled it becomes, the more operational space we have. If you want to know which sectors to position in and when it's safe to enter the market, just follow me. I will share real-time insights and valuable information every day, helping you to avoid pitfalls and find opportunities, making money together in the volatility.

In 2025, the Federal Reserve has already implemented two interest rate cuts. On September 17, the first cut was completed, and Bitcoin dropped from 117900 to 108620, a decrease of 7.8%; after the second cut on October 29, it plummeted from 113640 to 80600, with a decline of 28.6%.

Now the market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early hours of December 11. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a rate cut is already close to 90%, and most major investment banks also expect a cut of 25 basis points. However, the first two rate cuts did not lead Bitcoin to a favorable market, but instead resulted in consecutive declines, indicating that the liquidity easing brought by the rate cuts did not offset the market's concerns about inflation and economic outlook.

Before this rate cut, there were significant divisions within the Federal Reserve. Doves are worried about the deterioration of the labor market, while hawks fear that inflation is not under control, and the market may have already priced in the rate cut expectations, even posing a risk of "hawkish rate cuts." Therefore, for BTC, the market is likely to remain unstable before and after this decision, and everyone must stay alert and operate cautiously!

12.8 SOL Market Analysis

From the 1-hour line, it stabilized after falling from around 146 to 127 and started to rise. The MACD has formed a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator is also sticking together and turning up, indicating that the bulls are preparing to exert force.

In terms of operations, it is advised to target 130-125.
The target looks towards 147-153.

$SOL

12.8 ETH Morning Market Analysis

In the 4-hour trend, Ethereum quickly rebounded after dropping to around 2900, showing that support around 3000 is quite stable. On the technical side, the MACD is about to form a golden cross, with both DIF and DEA above the zero axis, indicating that bullish momentum is about to pick up.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to range between 2900-3000.
Targets are set towards 3150-3270.

$ETH

12.8 BTC Morning Market Analysis

In the 1-hour trend, Bitcoin has dropped to around 88000 after consolidating for two days, but the bulls quickly pulled the price back up, making the battle between bulls and bears quite intense. From a technical perspective, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the EMA monthly line can support the price. Additionally, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts about to take effect, it is suitable to accumulate positions in batches during the pullback.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to buy in the range of 88100-89000.
The target looks towards 91800-93200.

$BTC

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is coming soon, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates. The global central bank policy rhythm is different, and the cryptocurrency market might rise and then fall, with particularly large fluctuations. There are many profit opportunities hidden within, but risks must also be noted.

The Federal Reserve will open the interest rate cut window on December 9-10. Based on past data, cryptocurrencies can average a rise of over 15% in the three days after the rate cut. Meme coins like DOGE usually rise the fastest, and Bitcoin even has the chance to reach $100,000. However, there is a risk of rate hikes at the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 18-19. If a rate hike happens, market liquidity will tighten, which could trigger concentrated sell-offs and crashes—previously, when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised rates, Bitcoin dropped 18% in a single day, and altcoins fell by half.

Be sure to remember the key time nodes and don't miss the rhythm: December 9-15 is a good opportunity. After the rate cut takes effect, market sentiment will improve, leading mainstream coins to rise first, followed by altcoins. It's suitable to buy some coins that benefit from the rate cut in the short term; from December 16-19, one should watch and avoid risks. If there are clear signals of a rate hike before the Bank of Japan's meeting, it's best to sell early to take profits and avoid losses from premature sell-offs.

There are also two major risks to avoid: first is the significant drop caused by a rate hike. If the Bank of Japan raises rates, Bitcoin could drop by more than 20%, and those playing high-leverage contracts could easily lose their principal; second is anti-money laundering regulations. The U.S. is now strictly investigating, and cryptocurrency transactions over $10,000 must be reported. Frequent large transfers may result in frozen accounts, making it difficult to withdraw profits.

Retail investors seeking to grasp the market steadily should remember three points: ① Short-term operations—buy mainstream coins like BTC and ETH within three days after the rate cut, sell after making a 10% profit, and don't be greedy; ② Hedge against risks using options and futures tools to avoid the significant drops that may arise from rate hikes, and don't let your principal be completely lost; ③ Comply with trading regulations—report large transactions in advance, and don't use unqualified platforms. Only when the money is truly in hand is it reliable.

It's difficult to cope with this wave of volatility alone. Follow me to get information on coins with tenfold potential and quality primary market resources, helping you accurately seize profitable opportunities from the interest rate cut and avoid risks from the rate hike. Let's profit together in this market.

12.5 ETH Evening Market Analysis

From the 1-hour chart, Ethereum has recorded two consecutive bullish candles, the pullback is basically complete, and the lower Bollinger Band support is solid, showing signs of breaking through the middle band. The KDJ indicator has turned upwards and is about to form a golden cross, indicating a significant weakening of the bearish force, and the bulls are about to exert strength.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to look at 3100-3120.
Target is set towards 3190-3250.
$ETH

12.5 BTC Evening Market Analysis

From the 4-hour trend, Bitcoin's pullback power is almost in place, with two tests around the support of 90800 not breaking down, showing a relatively solid bottom. On the technical side, the monthly EMA can effectively support the price, and the KDJ indicator, which previously fell into the oversold area, has now started to turn upwards, indicating that the bulls are likely to make a move.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to look at 90000-90800
Target at 92100-94200

$BTC